Top 3 Reasons for 2014 Failure

[GNick49]

1. Jansenn going to Cuba and getting sick, blowing 4 games in the second half (Needed him to be pretty much automatic to stay in this thing)

2. Gibby being Gibby blowing games (Pompey for Goins pinch running, Morrow/Redmond being in important games, not being much of a motivator)

3. AA not doing anything in the deadline, when we were three games up, virtually signalling that he didn't believe in the team, and killing team morale

 

Depth also....every team has injuries, look at Yankees or Baltimore? But to play a Goins or Gose everyday for 2 months, AA should never had that short of a bench in first place

[TheHurl]

I'm actually hoping MLB does this so I don't have to hear that Rene Rivera or Ryan Hanigan is worth 75m a year.

 

I think the bigger question is, does enough people actually look at the data and realize that these players have a bigger impact on the game and some catchers like Santana are losing a huge chunk of their value in comparison to catchers who can't hit a lick (in the case of Santana he was bad enough at the other defensive aspects of catching that he was going to end up moving anyway). So if pitch framing data ever ends up reaching the minors to a full scale and more catchers like Hanigan make the bigs...they may actually go to the electronic umps.

 

As much as a guy like me is fascinated by framing, it's not good for casuals and in the end baseball. If every year a few of the ignorant become informed we'll be one step closer to roboump

[saskjayfan]

I think the bigger question is, does enough people actually look at the data and realize that these players have a bigger impact on the game and some catchers like Santana are losing a huge chunk of their value in comparison to catchers who can't hit a lick (in the case of Santana he was bad enough at the other defensive aspects of catching that he was going to end up moving anyway). So if pitch framing data ever ends up reaching the minors to a full scale and more catchers like Hanigan make the bigs...they may actually go to the electronic umps.

 

As much as a guy like me is fascinated by framing, it's not good for casuals and in the end baseball. If every year a few of the ignorant become informed we'll be one step closer to roboump

 

The only ignorant people that need to be informed are the umps. As data becomes available and they are informed, how will they react?

[FireAlexAnthopoulos]

1. Beeston - old, clueless douchebag who has kept this franchise mired in the Stone Age compared to the rest of the league. By far the biggest problem with this franchise, we will never sniff the playoffs as long as he's around.

 

2. AA - responsible for arguably the two worst trades in franchise history. Somehow managed to spend over $130 million of Rogers' money on a team that has no depth, overrated "stars" and trots out AAA players at key positions. Incapable of picking a direction and sticking with it. A liar who makes promise after promise to the fans and then blames Rogers for withholding money when he inevitably sits around eating gyros all day and doing nothing.

 

3. Gibbons - extremely mediocre manager who will never get the most out of his players. There's a reason we fired him the first time around and no other MLB team wanted him. We can do better.

[KingKat]

I think the bigger question is, does enough people actually look at the data and realize that these players have a bigger impact on the game and some catchers like Santana are losing a huge chunk of their value in comparison to catchers who can't hit a lick (in the case of Santana he was bad enough at the other defensive aspects of catching that he was going to end up moving anyway). So if pitch framing data ever ends up reaching the minors to a full scale and more catchers like Hanigan make the bigs...they may actually go to the electronic umps.

 

As much as a guy like me is fascinated by framing, it's not good for casuals and in the end baseball. If every year a few of the ignorant become informed we'll be one step closer to roboump

 

I don't feel like you need to be saber-savvy to accept a poor hitting, good framing, catcher. There are always ways to spin a poor hitting catcher into a positive for the casul fan. "He's a real leader, works great with the pitchers, etc." Whether that's true or not, it's something the casuals can easily lap up. They tend to look for the positives in their own teams players anyways. I'm not convinced having more Ryan Hanigan's in the game will have the negative impact you anticipate. Poor hitting catch and throw guys have been around forever and are pretty easy sell to old school types. You just have to use words like "grit" and "leadership".

[RealAccountant]

Doesn't a height of the hitter also determine the strike zone?

 

If so, how would the chip know the height of the hitter

 

"The bottom of the strike zone is a line at the hollow beneath the kneecap."

 

So how would the chip know where the kneecap of the hitter is, to determine the lower boundary of the strike zone?

[KingKat]

Doesn't a height of the hitter also determine the strike zone?

 

If so, how would the chip know the height of the hitter

 

"The bottom of the strike zone is a line at the hollow beneath the kneecap."

 

So how would the chip know where the kneecap of the hitter is, to determine the lower boundary of the strike zone?

 

Seem to me like it wouldn't be any harder to build a chip into the MBL uniforms than it would be to build one into a baseball. In both cases, there would have to be harsh penalty for any tampering.

[KingKat]

Neither are realistic. The chip in the ball would be useless, as already mentioned, due to the strike zone being hitter, and stance, dependent. A hitter's body is somewhat fluid from his setup, until the time he gets ready to swing. It just wouldn't work. And putting the chips in uniforms? Everyone is different. Where a part of the uniform sits on one person is not where that same size uniform would sit on another person. And, of course, uniforms move, naturally (or can be adjusted, intentionally). It's not something that could ever work.

 

My point was that since we're throwing around pure hypotheticals anyways, why stop at the chip in the ball. If you're going to just dream up scenarios involving chips, you might as well go whole hog. Maybe it's a knee pad or something. Do the exact logistics of such a dream scenario really matter?

 

(BTW, good to see you back. I miss having your point of view even if haven't always cared for the way your present it).

[Abomination]

"Ideal locations" is not something that is determinable, without constructing a sequencing matrix that would explode the human mind, because the ideal nature of a pitch, including location, is wholly dependent on each batter, and the sequence of pitches (in terms of velo, location, movement, etc.). The interrelationships between all those variables leads to a ridiculously complex decision tree ... and not something that would be digestible in a manner that one could actually apply it (if it could actually be completed in a meaningful way).

 

You would have to attack it using predictive modelling. It might actually be possible the more I think about it, but that would be one hell of a nasty project to sort out.

[Nexii]

The chip wouldn't have to know player height (though it could). It's the program that reads the data of where the ball is that would have to know that information. But player height is easily measurable and recordable. If anything it would be more fair, crouching low shouldn't give a player a smaller strike zone. On that thought I'm sure that soon we'll be hearing about crouching/leaning in for extra BBs is now worth WAR like how catchers frame

[Nexii]

That would already be counted in BB% and K%?

 

Good point, it would be included in current WAR. Perhaps something to keep in mind though, players that might stand to gain/lose WAR from a better pitch FX (roboump) system. Not just from crouch/lean but I'm sure some veterans get favorable calls...home field bias, etc. I thought catching was a decent analogy (catchers that stand to gain/lose value for framing)

[Abomination]

Perhaps something to keep in mind though, players that might stand to gain/lose WAR from a better pitch FX (roboump) system.

 

All vets lose, all rookies gain! (for disclosure, I haven't run the numbers on that, so I can't back that up)

[GeorgiaPeach]

The only ignorant people that need to be informed are the umps. As data becomes available and they are informed, how will they react?

 

Maybe they can make it more & more public and shove it in the umps faces.

 

"These great framing catchers around baseball who are making your called strikes that are actually balls, are worth 75m a year."

[GeorgiaPeach]

Doesn't a height of the hitter also determine the strike zone?

 

If so, how would the chip know the height of the hitter

 

"The bottom of the strike zone is a line at the hollow beneath the kneecap."

 

So how would the chip know where the kneecap of the hitter is, to determine the lower boundary of the strike zone?

 

Mobile lasers

[TDotttt2005]

Back to the OP's question

 

1. Bullpen underperformance

2. Lack of a second baseman and middle infield depth

3. Injury to Lawrie

 

(2 and 3 go together, I suppose)

[GeorgiaPeach]

Or there could be a large Pitch F/X screen in each park showing the strike zone and whatever the zone says, is.

[GeorgiaPeach]

You realize no one ever said $75M a year right?

 

What was the ridiculous number then?

[RealAccountant]

Mobile lasers

 

Sorry mobile lasers on the ball, or in the ball park.

 

That creates further issues, what if a laser malfunctions, what then, have the at bat again due to technical issues? We are talking about 14 stadiums a night with about 300 pitches thrown for 6-7 months out of the year. If a laser is measuring the knees of the player even a single deviation point could drastically hurt the integrity of the game? What about calibrating the laser from stadium to stadium? Or the laser not being able to read the player in particular circumstances. What then? What about a ball hitting the catcher's glove and the chip malfunctioning, is the ball going to have a functioning chip indicator, how will that effect the trajectory of the ball? Are we going to use new balls, every single time to ensure a ball hasn't been damaged by the catcher catching the ball.

 

The amount of technical issues are overwhelming.

[RealAccountant]

Or there could be a large Pitch F/X screen in each park showing the strike zone and whatever the zone says, is.

 

Who is incharge of locating the screen, can a technical person control the screen, how will the screen know where the players knees are? Or is that going to be calibrated at bat to at bat by a technical administrator. If so how can the judgement of that administrator be any different from the umpires.

 

Doesn't matter how you look at it, there is personal judgement involved.

 

There is similar technology in cricket for the LBW and while it is not a massive failure, it has shown to be faulty at times, and often becomes unreliable.

[TheHurl]

The only ignorant people that need to be informed are the umps. As data becomes available and they are informed, how will they react?

 

just because I say ignorant it doesn't mean you have to reply. You think that umps aren't aware of framing data. We are talking about split second decisions. They aren't going to say "Jose Molina is embarrassing me, I'm not giving you a call" As it is you have MLB telling them to expand their zone to speed up games.

[GeorgiaPeach]

just because I say ignorant it doesn't mean you have to reply. You think that umps aren't aware of framing data. We are talking about split second decisions. They aren't going to say "Jose Molina is embarrassing me, I'm not giving you a call" As it is you have MLB telling them to expand their zone to speed up games.

 

OT- I hope the committee looking at speeding the game up doesn't do anything crazy. I hope any changes are mild and aren't an in your face this is the change.

[Angrioter]

1-Pitching

2-Hitting

3-Defense

[G-Snarls]

1. Brett Lawrie - he misses so much time. And when he's out for extended periods it weakens TWO infield spots and the bench because your best utility guy ends up playing all the time and you have to call up a AAA scrub for the bench.

 

2. Bullpen - the starting rotation was as good or better than expected. The bullpen was not. There were times Gibby only had like one guy he could trust. Sanchez and Morrow stabilized it at the end but it was too late.

 

3. Colby Rasmus- I didn't expect another 4.8 WAR season but he honestly just mailed it in this year. Pathetic season start to finish. At no time did he even flash the ability for stretches like he usually does

 

Also worth mentioning:

 

Brandon Morrow - If not for Stroman being so good we would have been fuming at AA for expecting anything resembling full season from this broken down mess.

 

Iffy fundamentals - better than last year but still too many basic mistakes. Especially Navarro and Reyes - too many missed plays. Although they DO make up for some of it with their bats, those two positions are too important to accept subpar defense.

Edited September 24, 2014 by G-Snarls

[jaysfan2014]

1. Brett Lawrie - he misses so much time. And when he's out for extended periods it weakens TWO infield spots and the bench because your best utility guy ends up playing all the time and you have to call up a AAA scrub for the bench.

 

2. Bullpen - the starting rotation was as good or better than expected. The bullpen was not. There were times Gibby only had like one guy he could trust. Sanchez and Morrow stabilized it at the end but it was too late.

 

3. Colby Rasmus- I didn't expect another 4.8 WAR season but he honestly just mailed it in this year. Pathetic season start to finish. At no time did he even flash the ability for stretches like he usually does

 

Worth mentioning

 

Morrow - If not for Stroman being so good we would have been fuming at AA for expecting a full season from this broken down mess.

 

Iffy fundamentals - better than last year but still too many basic mistakes. Especially Navarro and Reyes - too many missed plays, though they DO make up for some of it with their bats.

 

Agree with you on that. Thankfully Rasmus is gone after this season. And when is Brett Lawrie ever going to stay healthy??

[o2cui2i]

The lack of a quality bench was one of the biggest issues. We just didn't have the ability to deal with injuries properly, or to deal with the necessary platoons.

 

I'd take that one step further. the complete lack of bench meant that Gibbons had no way to rest players and reduce the injuries. There are always injuries, but if you cant get guys a game off every 5 or 6 days and you play on turf, you are just begging for guys to go down. The drop off of talent going to the bench was pathetic. We went a good part of april with 2 subs with a half injured player not being fit enough, where one of warm bodies was thole.

 

to compete all the way until October you need to have 13 high talent guys and a few young guys who are close or good enough waiting in AAA. you cant have AAAA guy on the bench and in the lineup.

 

pretty much everyone knew we were screwed when AA said two words last winter.

 

"INTERNAL OPTIONS"

 

They didn't have any, but damn the numbers and full steam ahead.

 

AA is to blame and Beeston is his boss so he has to go too.

 

message to Beeston

 

http://performancesalesandtraining.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Weakest-link.jpg

[G-Snarls]

I'd take that one step further. the complete lack of bench meant that Gibbons had no way to rest players and reduce the injuries. There are always injuries, but if you cant get guys a game off every 5 or 6 days and you play on turf, you are just begging for guys to go down. The drop off of talent going to the bench was pathetic. We went a good part of april with 2 subs with a half injured player not being fit enough, where one of warm bodies was thole.

 

The bench to start the season was what? Thole, Sierra and Izturis? What the Hell was Gibby supposed to do with that??? No speed, no good defenders. One bat with power who strikes out all the time. An 8 man pen and a useless bench. Terrible roster management by the GM.

 

Second half of season bench was much improved, but again, too late

[KingKat]

Navarro was pretty bad. Basically an average catcher at 2.0 WAR but less than that once you deduct framing and it took 500 PAs to get to that 2.0 WAR total which is actually more PAs than JPA got last year and we all thought that was an insane amount of playing time for a second division (at best) starter. The Jays really need to find better catchers to give PAs to. Navarro/Thole wasn't AS brutal as JPA/Thole but the Jays still got very little value out of the position for the second straight year.

[G-Snarls]

Navarro was pretty bad. Basically an average catcher at 2.0 WAR but less than that once you deduct framing and it took 500 PAs to get to that 2.0 WAR total which is actually more PAs than JPA got last year and we all thought that was an insane amount of playing time for a second division (at best) starter. The Jays really need to find better catchers to give PAs to. Navarro/Thole wasn't AS brutal as JPA/Thole but the Jays still got very little value out of the position for the second straight year.

 

If he was going to under-shoot for talent at catcher (which he did) he should have gone harder at 2B. Or the OF - we had no idea if Melky was going to be any good or not.

[Abomination]

Navarro was pretty bad. Basically an average catcher at 2.0 WAR but less than that once you deduct framing and it took 500 PAs to get to that 2.0 WAR total which is actually more PAs than JPA got last year and we all thought that was an insane amount of playing time for a second division (at best) starter. The Jays really need to find better catchers to give PAs to. Navarro/Thole wasn't AS brutal as JPA/Thole but the Jays still got very little value out of the position for the second straight year.

 

Jays catchers were 14th in WAR. We can talk about framing, but the data currently isn't refined enough (imo) to be useful for direct comparison between players or teams. I would peg its current usefulness at saying one catcher is likely above average or another is below average, but not as a ranking system or in terms of adding or deducting WAR.

 

I would prefer to pick up Martin obviously, or several other guys, but I'm much more worried about LF and 2nd base.

[comeon sense]

Agree with you on that. Thankfully Rasmus is gone after this season. And when is Brett Lawrie ever going to stay healthy??

Yes he will stay healthy if he quits RedBull,and switches to "5 HOUR ENERGY"