Offseason roster thread 2014

[LongTimeReader]

Examples? I haven't exactly looked for comments he's made, but I expected a trainwreck when Colby came over from St. Louis and have been surprised that Tony has seemed fairly reasonable and informed for the most part.

 

I don't follow him or anything.... it was right before Colby hit that pinch-hit home run, he said something that made him look kind of stupid after. Maybe someone else can find it or remember it...

[jayfan79]

It's not just about peak value, or total return ... it's about having the pieces he wants when he wants them. If he can get a 3B to cover, and bring in another influx of young talent, and that's part of his blueprint, he'd rather do it now than wait. You get the return you want, when you want it so you can continue on with your plan.

 

Just because Billy Beane may agree to Stroman + Lawrie + does not mean we should do it.

 

not in our interest. Losing too many mlb ready pieces. Now if it were for prospects, sure...... why not?

[burlingtonbandit]

It's not just about peak value, or total return ... it's about having the pieces he wants when he wants them. If he can get a 3B to cover, and bring in another influx of young talent, and that's part of his blueprint, he'd rather do it now than wait. You get the return you want, when you want it so you can continue on with your plan.

 

Well yeah he obviously is going to do what he thinks is best for his team..Just not sure trading Donaldson is. I'm sure he could get an equal package to that next offseason.

[Angrioter]

Appreciate it. This board seems like the last safe haven for rational Jays discussion after what went down this summer.

 

The Welcome test.

1- Te llamas Fernando Torres y eres Mexicano?

2- Can Ryan Goins stick?

3- What do you think about AA job?

4- Rebuilt or Retool?

5- Your favourite Metallica song?

[jays4life19]

The Welcome test.

1- Te llamas Fernando Torres y eres Mexicano?

2- Can Ryan Goins stick?

3- What do you think about AA job?

4- Rebuilt or Retool?

5- Your favourite Metallica song?

 

You forgot to ask him what he thinks of JP Arencibia

[Angrioter]

Let me see!!

 

Donaldson: Top-15 player MLB, 4 year under control

 

for

 

Stroman: Bullpen arm in 2 or 3 years

Lawrie: The guy that could be a star, but will not be.

Pompey: The talented OF ALA Dominic Brown, Travis Snider, BJ Upton, Colby Rasmus, JF Griffin, Delmon Young.

[jayfan79]

Let me see!!

 

Donaldson: Top-15 player MLB, 4 year under control

 

for

 

Stroman: Bullpen arm in 2 or 3 years

Lawrie: The guy that could be a star, but will not be.

Pompey: The talented OF ALA Dominic Brown, Travis Snider, BJ Upton, Colby Rasmus, JF Griffin, Delmon Young.

 

And I would choose Stroman + Lawrie + Pompey over Donaldson.

 

Think about it: Why would Billy Beane want to do the deal? Because he knows that multiple above average players >>> One star player.

 

That is the reason why the Blue Jays have been unable to make the playoffs over the years despite having players like Delgado, Halladay, Bautista, Wells in his prime, etc.

 

We have always had either a poor bottom of the order (like this year) or poor bottom of the rotation (remember Josh Towers during the Halladay years?) or both.

 

Oakland does these types of deals ALL the time. That is why they are able to make the playoffs year after year despite not having a high payroll.

[glory]

If the deal were Red Bull, Sanchez, and Norris, then I'm not sure how that ruins the team's depth. The starters are not projected to be major contributors for the 2015 team (unless they slot Sanchez in the pen) and Lawrie misses half the season in a healthy year. I could understand any reservations if they were subtracting from the big league club to acquire him, but in that hypothetical deal, I don't see the downside for 2015. The downside would be 2016 when they would have to replace 2/5 of the rotation with Nolin and Graveman, but a lot can happen in the minors in one season to change that outlook. I mean, who projected Norris as a 2015 rotation option before this season?

[RealAccountant]

If the deal were Red Bull, Sanchez, and Norris, then I'm not sure how that ruins the team's depth. The starters are not projected to be major contributors for the 2015 team (unless they slot Sanchez in the pen) and Lawrie misses half the season in a healthy year. I could understand any reservations if they were subtracting from the big league club to acquire him, but in that hypothetical deal, I don't see the downside for 2015. The downside would be 2016 when they would have to replace 2/5 of the rotation with Nolin and Graveman, but a lot can happen in the minors in one season to change that outlook. I mean, who projected Norris as a 2015 rotation option before this season?

 

Well if you can do it, without losing Lawrie or Stroman than it would be amazing. Give up Sanchez and Norris and find a way to resign Melky

 

Reyes

Donaldson

Bautista

Lind

Encarnacion

Melky

Lawrie

Navarro

Gose

 

Now thats a lineup that can carry Gose

[jayfan79]

If the deal were Red Bull, Sanchez, and Norris, then I'm not sure how that ruins the team's depth. The starters are not projected to be major contributors for the 2015 team (unless they slot Sanchez in the pen) and Lawrie misses half the season in a healthy year. I could understand any reservations if they were subtracting from the big league club to acquire him, but in that hypothetical deal, I don't see the downside for 2015. The downside would be 2016 when they would have to replace 2/5 of the rotation with Nolin and Graveman, but a lot can happen in the minors in one season to change that outlook. I mean, who projected Norris as a 2015 rotation option before this season?

 

It absolutely does. Because, we need to deal one of Buehrle or Dickey to save on enough money for bullpen / lineup upgrades. We need Sanchez in rotation in 2015 and Norris as depth in AAA in case one of the regular starters falters.

 

Like I said, we need to focus on eliminating holes in our lineup and bullpen much much much more than acquiring any star player. Else we will not make the playoffs regardless of whether we acquire Donaldson or not.

 

Now hypothetically, if we were able to add say 20 to 30 million to the payroll next year , then we can make the trade you suggested and fix holes in lineup / bullpen. But we all know that is not going to happen.

[jayfan79]

This is also a way to stagger your contracts of your bigger players. Bautista and EE both have 2 more possible years on their current deal. Bringing in 4 years of Donaldson gives you the safety net of knowing you'll have a premium bopper in there beyond 2016 ... and you can work with Bautista and EE on possible extensions (or not work with them), accordingly. You need that top end talent (well, you don't need it, but it's really, really, really helpful) to compete. Could the guys you're giving up, even if they contribute more cost effective WAR over the life of their captive years, give you that premium output? Maybe ... but unlikely.

 

And that's why I also suggest bringing in a veteran pitcher, as well. You have a couple youngsters in there, and you have a vet potentially gone in after 2015, and another after 2016. You aren't putting all your eggs in the youth basket (with young pitchers being incredibly unreliable) this way. You're staggering your dreaded "veteran presence," giving your rotation something to anchor around when you're making your decisions on who else to bring in, and what youngsters to introduce.

 

Projecting a rotation of Hutch, Stroman, Sanchez, Norris and Dickey in 2016 is dumb as dirt ... good chance that's not a very good rote. Shed some of the youth, bring in a "sure thing" and you're also bringing in a sure thing stud in the trade.

 

These $/WAR projections for prospects or first/second year guys are risky as f***. You can't play around with that much risk and expect not to get seriously burned.

 

Projecting Hutch, Stroman, Sanchez, Happ and Dickey may be risky, but at least here there is a chance with Norris as backup.

 

We keep Goins, our poor bullpen, and both of Pillar and Gose in lineup and we will for sure not make the playoffs regardless of whether we trade for Donaldson or not.

[glory]

It absolutely does. Because, we need to deal one of Buehrle or Dickey to save on enough money for bullpen / lineup upgrades. We need Sanchez in rotation in 2015 and Norris as depth in AAA in case one of the regular starters falters.

 

Like I said, we need to focus on eliminating holes in our lineup and bullpen much much much more than acquiring any star player. Else we will not make the playoffs regardless of whether we acquire Donaldson or not.

 

Now hypothetically, if we were able to add say 20 to 30 million to the payroll next year , then we can make the trade you suggested and fix holes in lineup / bullpen. But we all know that is not going to happen.

 

If the Jays made that deal for Donaldson, they could trade Happ and Lind if they wanted to save money to add improvements. They could also trade Navarro if they had a good defensive replacement lined up (maybe the Royals would give Kratz back to us?). They wouldn't have to trade Dickey or Buehrle.

 

As far as Sanchez, while I would have fewer doubts about him if he were pitching in Oakland's park, he is still a huge question mark as a starter. High upside but also high risk. Beane could afford to take that risk in this hypothetical because he is paying for upside and cost control, but if the Jays want to win next season, they would be foolish to pencil Sanchez in without adding a Donaldson level talent somewhere to offset that risk.

 

There are ways to go cheap and not have to depend on Goins and Pillar and Kawasaki as depth. The Jays need to find a way regardless.

[Jimcanuck]

got to figure the combined WAR of Stroman, Lawrie, and Pompey in their pre-FA prime is 10, minimum.

 

Donaldson is almost 29, in his prime now. He good for 6-7 WAR.

 

would not do that trade, no way

[GD]

got to figure the combined WAR of Stroman, Lawrie, and Pompey in their pre-FA prime is 10, minimum.

 

Donaldson is almost 29, in his prime now. He good for 6-7 WAR.

 

would not do that trade, no way

 

BTS, thoughts?

[theblujay]

BTS, thoughts?

 

Lol lots wrong with that

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

I would trade Dickey and Thole too. Only problem is,other teams would likely value Buehrle more for the same reasons we would.

 

That's might be true too! But if I package the Dickey Thole platoon with Reyes we might be able to move all three in a deal too! Throw in 10 to 12 mill if needed and we still win in my books!

Mark is better suited to mentor a young staff and lead them!

[G-Snarls]

Dickey looked really good this year for most of the season, is guaranteed to eat innings, and is set to make only 12M for 2015 and 2016 (club option with cheap buyout). I think lots of teams would be interested in that. Including many NL teams.

 

Buerhle is no better in terms of.pitching performance, and costs 7M more for one season, then could be extended or qualified.

 

As dependable as Buerhle is, Dickey is a better value.

[G-Snarls]

All that said, I think we should keep both, but consider trading one mid season next year IF the kids are working out as hoped.

[ElNik2013]

That's might be true too! But if I package the Dickey Thole platoon with Reyes we might be able to move all three in a deal too! Throw in 10 to 12 mill if needed and we still win in my books!

Mark is better suited to mentor a young staff and lead them!

 

 

I don't think it would be smart to count on 4 youngsters plus Buehrle to lead you to the playoffs. I guess it would be Buehrle and Happ plus Hutchison, Stroman and one of Sanchez, Norris or Nolin.

 

I think the team would be better off keeping Dickey and letting the youngsters get more time at AAA unless they go out and get a Scherzer or Lester type of FA.

 

I think the franchise would be better off if they spent money to address its major needs. Buehrle has only 1 year left on his deal at 19M and there's a team option for 2016 on Dickey's deal. I think there are other guys coming off the books after next season as well so it would be a 1 year bump to give it one final shot. If not, they could blow it up after the season or mid-season.

[G-Snarls]

Yes. In 2016 Ricky Romero will be pitching for the Angels or Dodgers AAA affiliate and will save us 7.5 million dollars. Thank you Ricky.

[z3r0s]

We don't need to get rid of Dickey, we just need to get rid of Thole and realize that other catchers will be capable of catching a knuckleball

[jays4life19]

Yes. In 2016 Ricky Romero will be pitching for the Angels or Dodgers AAA affiliate and will save us 7.5 million dollars. f*** you Ricky.

 

Ftfy.

[G-Snarls]

Ftfy.

 

LOL

 

Imagine how different things might have gone if Ricky had remained a legit #2 caliber starter. Would have had so many implications for the team and AA. Prob would not have traded for Josh Johnson or Dickey.

 

So yeah, FU Ricky

Edited October 4, 2014 by G-Snarls

[ElNik2013]

LOL

 

Imagine how different things might have gone if Ricky had remained a legit #2 caliber starter. Would have had so many implications for the team and AA. Prob would not have traded for Josh Johnson or Dickey.

 

So yeah, FU Ricky

 

 

Had they not made the trades in 2012, RR and Morrow would've lead the 2013 staff into 95-100 loss territory. Alvarez and Happ would've been the other 2 and they both missed time with injuries. I think some people forget how injuries and Romero's implosion in 2012 probably made them desperate to at least be respectable in 2013 instead of tanking the whole season, which is something this franchise is not into.

[jayswin11]

let's dream that Ricky figures it out in the offseason and turns back the clock in 2015.

[G-Snarls]

let's dream that Ricky figures it out in the offseason and turns back the clock in 2015.

 

We already did that. Twice. It was painful.

 

(I know you were being sarcastic)

[ElNik2013]

If AA doesn't get canned this offseason, then yes I think that would say a lot about the ownership. But it still doesn't dismiss the glaring issue with AA's inability to assemble a complete roster.

 

 

Here's Beeston, the team president, on whether or not AA will be back next season:

 

Alex, I can say for a fact is back. He has done a very good job. We were all in on the trades last year.

 

 

Now, there have been GM's who got fired after getting a vote of confidence from their higher-ups, but this seemed pretty emphatic. Still, no doubt we still need confirmation from the people who actually own the franchise so we'll have to continue to wait a bit longer.

[ElNik2013]

George Kottaras has decided to become a FA. I guess they could still bring him back, but Thole's probably back next season.

[GeorgiaPeach]

Had they not made the trades in 2012, RR and Morrow would've lead the 2013 staff into 95-100 loss territory. Alvarez and Happ would've been the other 2 and they both missed time with injuries. I think some people forget how injuries and Romero's implosion in 2012 probably made them desperate to at least be respectable in 2013 instead of tanking the whole season, which is something this franchise is not into.

 

Why in every scenario to get to the 100 loss mark by not making those trades look solely at the team of players we had with no other moves?

 

And why isn't having arguably the best farm in baseball by not making those trades get mentioned?

[reedjohnsonfan]

We don't need to get rid of Dickey, we just need to get rid of Thole and realize that other catchers will be capable of catching a knuckleball

 

What if Thole got hurt? Would the Jays be screwed?