McCarthy To Yankees (for Vidal Nuno?!)

[NorthOf49]

Myth. One of the worst habits of the stats crowd these days is to overestimate what they can do with stats, and the danger in doing that is you lose

common sense and miss all other information.

But the only thing the non-stats crowd is doing here is putting all their stock in ERA.

 

ERA misses much more relevant information that xFIP does.

[TheHurl]

Okay then everyone lets get something in writing. Predict McCarthy's stats with the Yankees. Innings pitched and ERA should suffice

 

I'll go with 88 IP and 4.07.

[NorthOf49]

87 IP and 3.57 ERA.

[pickoff22]

But the only thing the non-stats crowd is doing here is putting all their stock in ERA.

 

ERA misses much more relevant information that xFIP does.

 

I don't see that being the case. Did someone say ERA was all that mattered? I'm asking seriously because I didn't see that if so. I see many people who think there's merit in advanced metrics however see the danger in relying solely on them and then there's some that look only at stats and nothing else.

[NorthOf49]

I don't see that being the case. Did someone say ERA was all that mattered? I'm asking seriously because I didn't see that if so. I see many people who think there's merit in advanced metrics however see the danger in relying solely on them and then there's some that look only at stats and nothing else.

I don't care if they openly say ERA is all that matters or not. They are clearly basing their entire opinion of McCarthy on his ERA (and perhaps W-L). Consciously or not, it's happening.

 

If he had a 3.00 ERA but looked exactly the same when those people watched him and he had the exact same peripherals, the non-stats crowd would be all over him and would be pissed that the Yankees acquired him so cheaply.

[NorthOf49]

That's just more absurd over thinking. It's you that is stretching the limits of common sense, in a ridiculously arrogant fashion. Of course, you are not alone this is highly prevalent on this site. Look how many of you are making fun of other posters, the Diamondbacks, other fan sites based on your highly skewed view on reality. And here's the proof that common sense goes out the window. The forecasting record on this site ( teams and players ) for the last 18 months has been horrendously bad. Simply picking randomly in some cases would have been better. This is an indication that an overly skewed bias on certain data points has led to faulty judgement.

I haven't made fun of anyone. Tell me how xFIP is wrong about Brandon McCarthy.

[NorthOf49]

I'll bite. Those things have nothing to do with Brandon McCarthy and what his ERA says about him.

[TheHurl]

Okay then everyone lets get something in writing. Predict McCarthy's stats with the Yankees. Innings pitched and ERA should suffice

 

I'll go with 88 IP and 4.07.

 

King was probably pissed as well that we didn't give Josh Johnson a QO, and most certainly pissed we didn't trade a declining vet like Bautista last year.

Just like with those guys, we'll know in a few months what kind of impact he makes ( he's a rental that's all that matters ).

 

so far only North and I have put a number on paper. lead the way for the "he sucks crowd". For the record I am a big supporter of advanced stats. Only part I disagree with is the "he pitched great" or he's unlucky every single time a pitcher under-performs their FIP. McCarthy has survived with a 20+ line drive rate for much of his career. There are successful guys that have numbers like this, but most are relatively inconsistent unless their K-Rates are elite (thinking Darvish here). There are several guys that I'm all over in fantasy baseball that put up high line drive rates (Miley, Chen, Medlen, Minor, Eovaldi, Wood and my new fave Kluber) but I can tell you that those guys can be pretty frustrating to watch at times.

[jays4life19]

My prediction for McCarthy: 91IP. 3.77 ERA

[Boxcar]

25 IP 7.83 ERA in Japan by September.

[TheHurl]

25 IP 7.83 ERA in Japan by September.

 

Amanda would never do Japan.

[reedjohnsonfan]

You guys are just too funny sometimes. Apparently every pitcher has the same BABIP. Hey I can throw a cutter, maybe if I pitched in the MLB I would be an unlucky good pitcher like McCarthy?

[Slot Machine]

You guys are just too funny sometimes. Apparently every pitcher has the same BABIP. Hey I can throw a cutter, maybe if I pitched in the MLB I would be an unlucky good pitcher like McCarthy?

 

Yeah, 7.63 K/9 should be easy to make.

[NLJays]

Since McCarthy's repertoire is similar to Roy Halladay:

 

 

EDIT: since it might be hard to read, that's the location of all hard stuff (two-seam, four-seam and cutter) comparing McCarthy's 2014 with Halladay 2007-2011 (so before he went bad).

 

The issue with McCarthy is not that he's locating badly, but his cutter use is way down, as one user did point out. To be as successful as he was, the guy probably needs to regain his cutter from earlier seasons.

 

With his sinker getting more groundballs and more whiffs than in his Oakland days, I don't see any reason for McCarthy to keep having a 20% HR/FB rate. If his velocity and whiffs were down, sure, you would question xFIP/SIERA's usefulness. But McCarthy seems to still be good, possibly very good if his cutter comes back. And yes, I too have seen video of him getting hit hard.

Edited July 7, 2014 by NLJays

[Boxcar]

You guys are just too funny sometimes. Apparently every pitcher has the same BABIP. Hey I can throw a cutter, maybe if I pitched in the MLB I would be an unlucky good pitcher like McCarthy?

 

Did I not JUST post that Kershaw and Nuno have a BABIP 7 points apart? Halladay had a higher BABIP than s***** Jeff Francis.

 

I should stay in OT. I gain no enjoyment from this section.

[JaysFan75]

Did I not JUST post that Kershaw and Nuno have a BABIP 7 points apart? Halladay had a higher BABIP than s***** Jeff Francis.

 

I should stay in OT. I gain no enjoyment from this section.

 

xFIP can be misleading. Look at the average BABIP for the top 10 pitchers in terms of LD% vs the bottom 10. There's a pretty dramatic difference there.

[saskjayfan]

Who the hell wants Vidal Nuno? Come on KT.

 

Well Nuno did pitch almost 100 innings in the toughest baseball market. Clearly the kid can't cut it. Nuno has a decent chance to develop and he's controllable for many years at next to nothing. McCarthy has a just under a half a season left on his contract and he has a career xfip and fip over 4.

 

McCarthy has a career xfip over 4 pitching in the national league where the pitcher gets to bat. He's nothing special. He's a mid rotation guy at best with 75 games left on his contract. The Yankees didn't steal s***...

[saskjayfan]

Yeah, 7.63 K/9 should be easy to make.

 

McCarthy's career K rate is 6.17. McCarthy won't have the benefit of pitching to the pitcher. We'll so how high that K rate is in the American league.

[pickoff22]

The Yankees didn't steal s***...

 

So true.

[saskjayfan]

xFIP can be misleading. Look at the average BABIP for the top 10 pitchers in terms of LD% vs the bottom 10. There's a pretty dramatic difference there.

 

all statistics have their short comings.....but don't try and tell that to those who get on hands and knees to bow down 5 times a day to xfip and fip....those numbers never lie.

[kgm1]

Well since no one else wanted him at those dollars i would think the Yankees didn't have to give up much. this from MLBTR

 

The Diamondbacks placed now-Yankees pitcher Brandon McCarthy on waivers six to eight weeks ago, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets. That means anyone could have claimed him and assumed the remainder of his $9MM salary for 2014. No one bit.

[wilko]

Damnit, McCarthy would have been a decent option. His velocity is up this year.

[pickoff22]

I may as well be the first to bump this...........

 

Such joy in watching him implode in pinstripes

[KingKat]

I may as well be the first to bump this...........

 

Such joy in watching him implode in pinstripes

 

While Nuno was terrific for Arizona.

[pickoff22]

3 unearned runs, Yankees clearly f***ed up.

 

Yeah, 6 hits in two innings. He's pitching like a true ace tonight!

[Anemic0ffense]

Yeah, 6 hits in two innings. He's pitching like a true ace tonight!

 

His xFIP is -4.67. Tell me moar!

[jaysblue]

McCarthy won't be anything special with the Yankees. He won't survive pitching in that park.

[BTS]

I may as well be the first to bump this...........

 

Such joy in watching him implode in pinstripes

 

McCarthy goes 6.2 strong in a Yankees win. Great post, lol.

[fatcowxlive]

I don't know why you guys are so amped about McCarthy. The dude's going to have a bad time in the AL East. If you guys think his BABIP and HR/9 are unsustainable then the same thing could be said about his career high K/9 and his career high GB%. Dudes moving from the NL West, arguably the best division for a pitcher, to the AL East, the complete opposite, in ballparks if anything

[Nox]

I don't know why you guys are so amped about McCarthy. The dude's going to have a bad time in the AL East. If you guys think his BABIP and HR/9 are unsustainable then the same thing could be said about his career high K/9 and his career high GB%. Dudes moving from the NL West, arguably the best division for a pitcher, to the AL East, the complete opposite, in ballparks if anything

 

All those things are wrapped into what Steamer tries to tell us: 4.04 FIP ROS, 4.26 ERA ROS. Those seem pretty reasonable, no?