What are our chances of making the play-offs?

[Convo]

Let's exclude, for the sake of argument, a wild card spot. What do you think our chances are of winning the division? It's been a rough week offensively, but all things considered, our offense can't be this bad (it's not sustainable). So who are the real Blue Jays? The April version? The May version? The last week version? Somewhere inbetween? Make your prediction.

[theblujay]

play-offs?

[Caper]

I'm going to say roughly 76.8%.

[Tuco]

Without any additions to the starting pitching?

 

I'd say around 35%.

[intentional wok]

They are everything they've been to this point. Strong hitting with decent pitching and acceptable fielding. The hitters will go back to mashing and the pitching will continue to keep us afloat each game (though not without some sweat). Lady luck needs to come back off vacation so we can win some of the toughies.

 

(Seriously, even during the win streaks the Jays had a handful of games they had no business winning: notably, game 1 vs. A's, game 3 vs. Rays, game 2 vs. Tigers, and game 1 vs. Cards)

 

If they get back to playing as they did before this slump, the wins will come. Maybe not in the same exciting droves like this past month, but at least at the same rate as the other East teams.

 

I don't have time to look at numbers, but was there a whale of a difference offensively and pitching-wise between the first two months? The first week of May was a deceptively ugly 13-17 record, with about 5 absolute bullpen meltdowns that have happily been kept in check since. I don't think the team was playing all that bad outside of that one department (that admittedly did a lot of damage).

 

EDIT: As far as playoff chances, the Jays have as much a chance as anyone else in the division, but at the moment a little more of a chance by virtue of a healthier win total 68 games in.

[BarkatToronto]

63.3% of wining division

 

I seriously don't think you can count on such figures

[GD]

I seriously don't think you can count on such figures

 

Why?

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Why?

 

A middle of the pack rotation that is likely to regress?

[Chappy]

All I know is that we have a solid chance to take this division. We have our deficiencies, but all teams in the division have issues right now. This team at the very least should be in the WC mix come September.

[GD]

A middle of the pack rotation that is likely to regress?

 

I'm asking why he doesn't believe in the playoff odds numbers, I agree with you on the rotation bit.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

All I know is that we have a solid chance to take this division. We have our deficiencies, but all teams in the division have issues right now. This team at the very least should be in the WC mix come September.

 

Offense is clearly legit but Buehrle is due for a regression, Hutch is showing signs of wearing down, and Happ sucks.

 

They clearly need to make a deal for a starter very, very soon.

 

Rays are done, Sox don't look very good. I really wouldn't surprised to see the Orioles make some noise with the way they're hitting. That young rotation is scary too.