Checking the barometer on JA Happ

[G-Snarls]

Through 43.67 IP he has 0 WAR.

 

That's better than 2/5ths of the Yankees rotation and 3/5ths of the Orioles rotation

 

(not that that means we shoudn't aim higher)

[Caper]

He has a 4.58 xFIP, but he has a 5-2 record so he's pitching well!!1!!! pitchr winz1!!!!

 

He's replacement level. Lolllll @ bumping Dickey

 

 

 

He's pitching fine for a 5th starter.

[Caper]

Watching him pitch hasn't been the puke-worthy experience of years past, so that's nice.

 

As a #5 he's fine, although still way overpaid for what he's bringing and I worry this mild degree of success might convince them to pick up his option.

 

 

 

Remember when you went on and on and on about McGowan and how you couldn't wait for him to just be off the team? Oh that was funny.

[NorthOf49]

I know

 

Because Dickey's ERA went up 1.5 runs after his magical Cy Young season to the AL East while he was slightly injured, we should expect the same to happen to ALL NL starters.

 

Pffft

It went something like this.

 

Zaun: As we've seen, you can a run and a half to the ERA when NL pitchers switch leagues. It happened with Josh Johnson and it will happen to Samardzija. He throws too much junk, that stuff doesn't work over here.

 

Bobcat: A run and a half... that's a 4.50 ERA. Good Lord! We don't need that.

[G-Snarls]

5th starters are supposed to be above replacement.

 

You should tell that to New York and Baltimore

[G-Snarls]

It went something like this.

 

Zaun: As we've seen, you can a run and a half to the ERA when NL pitchers switch leagues. It happened with Josh Johnson and it will happen to Samardzija. He throws too much junk, that stuff doesn't work over here.

 

Bobcat: A run and a half... that's a 4.50 ERA. Good Lord! We don't need that.

 

LOL @ using 2013 Josh Johnson as your yardstick

 

LOLOLOLOL

[Caper]

5th starters are supposed to be above replacement.

 

 

I think he is right now. He was complete garbage out of the pen earlier in the year. Going forward from now until the end of the year, I think he is an above average 5th starter.

[G-Snarls]

Lol, are you trolling with this?

 

NY has been absolutely decimated by injury, and nobody thought BAL's rotation would be this bad, especially Tillman.

 

Yes

[BlueJaysGirl]

He has a 4.58 xFIP, but he has a 5-2 record so he's pitching well!!1!!! pitchr winz1!!!!

 

He's replacement level. Lolllll @ bumping Dickey

 

Holy s***! His xFIP is that bad? Forget that 5-2 ********. Let's take him out back and shoot him.

[BlueJaysGirl]

Oh my.

 

I know, right?

[Caper]

Yep, people underrate Happ's guttiness, veteran presence and will to win, imo.

 

Of all the calls you have made in the last year... which in turn have completely fallen apart. You would think you'd learn to dial it down a notch or two.

[SpeedyGose]

Yep, people underrate Happ's guttiness, veteran presence and will to win, imo.

 

Rumor has it the scouting industry is changing their profile to 6 tools, 6th being will to win

[SpeedyGose]

Of all the calls you have made in the last year... which in turn have completely fallen apart. You would think you'd learn to dial it down a notch or two.

 

So you're saying he doesn't a veteran presence?

[BlueJaysGirl]

Rumor has it the scouting industry is changing their profile to 6 tools, 6th being will to win

 

And that's easy to measure, you use unicorn horns.

 

#iknowyouwerekidding

[BigCecil]

So you're saying he doesn't a veteran presence?

 

We don't need veterans per say. We have plenty. We need starter(s) who can pitch quality innings deep and get people out.

[HERPDERP]

veteran presents?

 

Bautista is more than enough veteran presents for the Jays, and Reyes can be the veteran presents if you want someone with playoff experience.

 

Dickey I guess can be the presents for the pitchers...

[G-Snarls]

Yep, people underrate Happ's guttiness, veteran presence and will to win, imo.

 

#Intangibles

[Olerud363]

5th starters are supposed to be above replacement.

 

He's a 6 WAR career guy by both bbref and fangraphs systems.

 

bbref has him at 0.8 this year... fangraphs at 0.

 

There are errors in these systems... especially over low sample sizes. You know this obviously.

 

The data says Happ is above replacement. But maybe not by a lot. Samardzija is projected to be 1.5 wins better over the rest of the year.

 

Is it worth giving up Sanchez/Nay for 1.5 wins?

[pickoff22]

 

Is it worth giving up Sanchez/Nay for 1.5 wins?

 

Keep in mind we get him for 1 1/2 seasons. For this season there has to be concern over durability of our staff. Hard to picture Hutchison lasting through the season and into the playoffs. Suppose that doesn't answer the question lol - but whether it's Shark or someone else, adding a starter should help solidify this rotation.

[Atothe]

He's a 6 WAR career guy by both bbref and fangraphs systems.

 

bbref has him at 0.8 this year... fangraphs at 0.

 

There are errors in these systems... especially over low sample sizes. You know this obviously.

 

The data says Happ is above replacement. But maybe not by a lot. Samardzija is projected to be 1.5 wins better over the rest of the year.

 

Is it worth giving up Sanchez/Nay for 1.5 wins?

 

No but I wonder if Cole Hamels is available

[pickoff22]

No but I wonder if Cole Hamels is available

 

Amaro is too stubborn. Plus at his salary will be a tough sell to ownership. And he's not exactly killing it over there. I would be happy with a Jason Hammel - had a stellar year and shouldn't cost too much.

 

*edit* Just looked at Cole's numbers and he's having a fine season, better than I thought

[G-Snarls]

Amaro is too stubborn. Plus at his salary will be a tough sell to ownership. And he's not exactly killing it over there. I would be happy with a Jason Hammel - had a stellar year and shouldn't cost too much.

 

*edit* Just looked at Cole's numbers and he's having a fine season, better than I thought

 

And I think the Phillies are going to be forced to sell. They would absolutely foolish not to.

[pickoff22]

And I think the Phillies are going to be forced to sell. They would absolutely foolish not to.

 

same could be said for last season and the one before. Amaro is awful. Though perhaps he will be forced to sell if his job's in danger.

[G-Snarls]

same could be said for last season and the one before. Amaro is awful. Though perhaps he will be forced to sell if his job's in danger.

 

If ownership has ANY sense, they'll either force him to deal away these declining vets, or fire him and get someone new in to do the job

[kgm1]

Sanchez + Nay[/quote

 

Well if we could get him for that then I probably do the deal as long as we are still 5 up after the AS break. Right now there is no option except for Happ unless we call up Hendriks or Nolin and DFA Happ. I see no point in this as long as he goes 6 or 7 and gives our offense a chance to outscore them.

 

What would you have AA do. No trades are being talked right now . Too early. Let Happ walk and call up Nolin and he sucks or gets hurt then we are at Hendriks, Redmond or god forbid Rogers. Sure Happ is no hell but he is slightly better than replacement level and depth. Hutch is looking like he may have a dead arm issue (loss of velocity and command,) what do you do if he goes on the DL. You would be f***ed without Happ unless you think Hendriks can keep getting superb defense, a wind blowing in, and unbelievable luck.

 

I dislike Happ as much as the next guy but right now we are damn lucky to have him and his 4.58 xFIP . I think we can win his starts by scoring 5 or 6 runs more than 50% of the time and I'm ok with that until AA makes a deal. Prospects are not always better than vets.

[Ziggyy108]

Happ f***ing sucks.

[Olerud363]

Amaro is too stubborn. Plus at his salary will be a tough sell to ownership. And he's not exactly killing it over there. I would be happy with a Jason Hammel - had a stellar year and shouldn't cost too much.

 

*edit* Just looked at Cole's numbers and he's having a fine season, better than I thought

 

Savy Gibby - Alex I know Amaro still likes Kyle Drabek. Trade him to the Phillies for a player to be named later to be chosen from a list of 7. Let Amaro choose the 7 any way he wants.

 

AA - ?? Huhhhh... that's a weird request... Gibby must be up to something... I'll get my secretary to run the paperwork.

 

Amaro - I can name any seven players I want and you choose only one?? Any seven I want and I get Drabek back?? Hell yes.

 

7 hours later --

 

Amaro (thinking) -- Dang... this is harder then I thought. I have to name 7 minor leaguers. Who's our A affiliate again?? f***-it I'll just add in Cole Hamels.

[NorthOf49]

This new series where Gibby and Seitzer run the whole organization is great. Keep it up Olerud.

[Deadpool]

He has a 4.58 xFIP, but he has a 5-2 record so he's pitching well!!1!!! pitchr winz1!!!!

 

He's replacement level. Lolllll @ bumping Dickey

 

Dickey's xFIP: 4.46

[Ehh]

You want him as your #5 guy on a contending team at best