Analytics becoming increasingly important for Jays (Article)

[Olerud363]

“we’re going to look at some point to add a programmer if we can. Easier said than done because the really good programmers are hired by companies and make a lot of money, and you have to get someone who’s a baseball fan.”

 

This quote is embarrassing. You would expect to hear something like this from a small nonprofit organization or local business. To hear the GM of a f***ing MLB team complain that he can't afford to hire a computer programmer is just mind-blowing. Especially when that team prides itself on having the largest scouting staff in the universe.

 

You could get a good programmer for 50,000 if you were willing to hire someone out of school.

 

Anyway this situation is incredible. Rogers can't hire a programmer?? Beeston and AA are just out of touch with the world. I'm sure they have the same distaste for programmers that wall street does. But Wall Street will eat their own s*** if they can sell it for more when it comes back out.

 

That's the difference between Henry and Beeston (and I know Beeston isn't the owner, but he's in charge). Henry probably hates programmers too, Programmers are distasteful dirty little bastards, but Henry will hire one for 100,000 if the programmer can make him 110,000 back. Henry knows a little math.

 

Beeston views things as a politician, he hires his friends only, and he's not friends with any programmers.

[KingKat]

Good example of analytics at work here in looking at the success of Mark Buehrle. Let's hope they apply it in the future just incase hitters around the league find out what he's doing

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-old-mark-buehrles-new-trick/

 

This is interesting because Buehrle is notorious for always accepting the first sign. There may be something to the idea that Navarro's a good game caller after all because Buehrle's improvement seems entirely due to pitch selection. Just yesterday, I was telling CHP he was full of s*** for making claims about the quality of Navarro's game calling but he may be right (not that he presented this article as evidence or anything).

[Olerud363]

The vast majority of Canadian companies don't understand what a "good programmer" is and usually try to hire young guys without experience for cheap. I'm not surprised to see these kind of comments with respect to programming it is more indicative of the economy and how it works these days.

 

Young guys can be good... you need the right young guys. But I agree with you that Canadian companies don't understand what a "good programmer" is. Most people don't. It's a weird field to be in with a lot of tension. Often times (no matter what business one is in) your boss is a marketing idiot.

 

The things is the first time a player that the programs chooses fails Beeston would kill the programmer.

[Olerud363]

This is interesting because Buehrle is notorious for always accepting the first sign. There may be something to the idea that Navarro's a good game caller after all because Buehrle's improvement seems entirely due to pitch selection. Just yesterday, I was telling CHP he was full of s*** for making claims about the quality of Navarro's game calling but he may be right (not that he presented this article as evidence or anything).

 

I still predict the shitballers will converge and you won't be able to tell the difference between them by the end of the year. 12-10 3.94 for both.

 

However if Beurhle keeps it up bring this again up at the end of the year.

[TheHurl]

I'm f***ing baffled! How ridiculous is this front office. Yeah all faith is lost for me. ONE f***ing guy, ONE!

 

Since when did "The Herd" on this board fall below Shi Davidi in credibility. We've been telling everyone this for 2 years. When we tell you that AA doesn't us a computer we aren't just making this s*** up. It's 100% true

[KingKat]

I still predict the shitballers will converge and you won't be able to tell the difference between them by the end of the year. 12-10 3.94 for both.

 

However if Beurhle keeps it up bring this again up at the end of the year.

 

Teams will adjust especially now that it's all spelled out in a bloody FanGraphs article.

[Boxcar]

FTFY fatty.

 

lmfao

[NorthOf49]

Just a question does every team have to create there own system or does mlb supply the database?

MLB supplies the F/X data, which teams can use in their systems. Teams would also have access to other data like detailed disabled list/transactions data, their own medical data, their scouting intel, etc. It's pretty easy to get historical play-by-play/boxscores too.

 

What you do with the data is the important thing here.

[8D]

and two interns

 

You hinting at something?

[8D]

“we’re going to look at some point to add a programmer if we can. Easier said than done because the really good programmers are hired by companies and make a lot of money, and you have to get someone who’s a baseball fan.”

 

This quote is embarrassing. You would expect to hear something like this from a small nonprofit organization or local business. To hear the GM of a f***ing MLB team complain that he can't afford to hire a computer programmer is just mind-blowing. Especially when that team prides itself on having the largest scouting staff in the universe.

 

lmao

[sachmo55]

Is this real life?

[8D]

The Blue Jays Analytics department consists of only two people? What a joke.

 

And can you imagine the pull this one guy must have had? Well, almost none, probably.

The guy coming over was probably an average saberist who would have added a bit to an already bolstered team over @ Cleveland,

but is now defacto No. 2 with the Jays because well... there are only two ppl in this department, lol.

Clearly Jays are just getting things up the ground at a snail's pace while a handful of other teams are eons ahead.

Going to need a major overhaul if they have any legitimate intention of getting ahead in this department; just like they did a huge revamp with their scouting department.

[KingKat]

And can you imagine the pull this one guy must have had? Well, almost none, probably.

The guy coming over was probably an average saberist who would have added a bit to an already bolstered team over @ Cleveland,

but is now defacto No. 2 with the Jays because well... there are only two ppl in this department, lol.

Clearly Jays are just getting things up the ground at a snail's pace while a handful of other teams are eons ahead.

Going to need a major overhaul if they have any legitimate intention of getting ahead in this department; just like they did a huge revamp with their scouting department.

 

Even though he's kind of a douche, I would love to hear/read Keith Law's reaction to this. He was the analytics guy under J.P. Ricciardi called him his "Depodesta".

[TheHurl]

The good news is there will probably be a lot of guys in Tampa looking for jobs soon, and lord knows they're already working for pennies, so ...

 

even their interns make 17% more than the Jays. Pretty sure their F.O. is better paid than the Jays F.O.

 

You hinting at something?

 

They hire two or three interns each year. It's posted every year

[KevinGregg]

The vast majority of Canadian companies don't understand what a "good programmer" is and usually try to hire young guys without experience for cheap. I'm not surprised to see these kind of comments with respect to programming it is more indicative of the economy and how it works these days.

 

As a studet going into my final year of computer science, I would be greatly interested in what you guys think makes a great programmer. I am pretty skeptical that anyone in my class would qualify as great at this time

[eastcoastjaysfan]

 

Ahhh, ok. I thought you were hinting you were an intern.

 

Spanky is your guy if you're looking for inside scoops!

[KingKat]

Did Law actually have a legit title? I thought he was more of an intern-type, new kid on the block learning the ropes.

 

His title was Consultant to Baseball Operations. He was recommended by DePodesta himself. By the end, his title became Special Assistant to the GM.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Is Spanky still head analytics intern?

 

Spanky can you please confirm/deny this?

 

Thanks

[Spoonovic]

The ironic thing is that AA is a "young GM". He is supposed to be a part of the new generation of changing the way baseball is thought of. Yet his thought process is so old school.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Analyticle aside I think some of the problem is not knowing what we want to be on the big league team. Make up or style wise! For instance if are all the hitting coaches preaching the same message? Are the pitching coaches? Do they make all batters bunt to learn it as a skill? I believe the minors is more about teaching and learning then being worried about win/loss record of the teams! Not sure we have a solid plan.Just look a buffalo I can think of 8-10 players that hold no or little value to the major league club. Taking away development and coaching time for players maybe with more upside and holding people back to be challenged at higher levels of play too!

[GD]

I have friends who could program at a, in a professional capacity, acceptable-above average level (and among our peers, at a ridiculous level), and my friend just finished a motion tracking python code for $20 an hour. Like, f***, for a $175m org, this is pathetic.

[shortstop]

I think Rogers has a handful of feel-good pieces they can release after devastating and demoralizing losses like last night.

 

lol...

 

funny also b/c it could very well be true

 

which would be ironic, proactive on one front but not on the other...

[TheHurl]

The ironic thing is that AA is a "young GM". He is supposed to be a part of the new generation of changing the way baseball is thought of. Yet his thought process is so old school.

 

That's part of the disappointment of many fans and most of this board. We kind of felt deceived by the quiet ninja that never spoke.

[Olerud363]

Since when did "The Herd" on this board fall below Shi Davidi in credibility. We've been telling everyone this for 2 years. When we tell you that AA doesn't us a computer we aren't just making this s*** up. It's 100% true

 

I guess I just have my view that Beeston is an insane moron and is really making the moves behind the scenes.. AA smart enough but no balls, just the first chubby soft looking easy to push around kid Beeston saw in the hallway aftger firing J.P.

 

But I guess AA total moron explains things too.

[Olerud363]

As a studet going into my final year of computer science, I would be greatly interested in what you guys think makes a great programmer. I am pretty skeptical that anyone in my class would qualify as great at this time

 

People skills. Patience. Neatness. Ability to take a break, chill out. Ability to stay calm. Ability to use google.

 

If you pass a computer science program you have the skill do code. You need to make sure it doesn't become a spaghetti train wreck. Everty single solution is on stack overflow or something... so creativity is a little less important (unfortunately). Still comes in handy sometimes, but have to be modest enough to mainly re-use other people's solutions.

 

Neatness. Neat short modules and functions.

[Olerud363]

"Take the free agent signing of Dioner Navarro over the winter, the club’s biggest off-season transaction, as an example. Beyond an assessment of the catcher’s numbers at the plate, their internal data suggested the quality of his contact made it likely that his offensive performance in 2013 wasn’t a fluke.

 

So far, that appears to be bang on."

 

wRC+:

Career: 83

2013: 136

2014: 78

 

ANALYTICS!

 

Apparently, 83 is closer to 136, than 78.

 

What were Steamer's and ZIPS' projections prior to the season?

 

Despite my raging on some of this thread I don't think a huge analytics department is needed. It's like a bonus.

 

1. OPS with on base percentage weighted 1.5 and park factored.

2. Scaling factor for each position.

3. Aging curves.

4. Average games played for projecting injuries. If x plays 400 games in 4 years, he is projected for 100 next year.

5. Strikeout rate, walk rate, homer rate for pitchers.

6. Range factors and some scouting for defense.

 

That is enough. I mean the Jays don't even use this. If they did things would be fine. I am not saying advanced analytics wouldn't help.

 

Jays - at about a 70

Common sense - brings you to 90

Advanced analytics - brings you to 95.

 

or something like that. 100 is like a perfect organization. I am assuming every mlb organization is above 65.

[Nox]

Ability to use google.

 

If you can do this you basically have an 80k floor.

[GD]

6. Range factors and some scouting for defense.

 

DRS > Range Factor

[CHRIS]

If you can do this you basically have an 80k floor.

 

Maybe David Cooper should get into programming if baseball doesn't work out.

[Nox]

Maybe David Cooper should get into programming if baseball doesn't work out.

 

I hear he uses Bing