Brett Lawrie looks great at the plate

[Jays]

Aaron Hill's HR totals starting at age 23 : 3, 6, 17, 2 ( only 200 abs ), 36, 26. Not sure why you think young players can be accurately forecast.

 

Aaron Hill's career HR/FB is 8.5%. In 2007 it was 8.6% and he had 17 home runs over a full season that year. When he hit 36 homers his HR/FB was 14.9%. He never came close to 14.9% again. Closest was 11.2% and he never came close to hitting 36 again (26 twice). Hill hit 36 homers because he was lucky. Brett is hitting homeruns at a good rate this year because he's getting lucky too. Brett has a career low 10.7% line drive rate and a career high 19.4% strikeout rate.

[Boxcar]

I got called out a couple of weeks back for saying he looks dangerous. His swing looks great this year as it's way quieter and he looks more focused and zeroed in. I think his bat speed looks faster than it was last year because of his adjustments. He has 5 no doubters he's been fouling balls straight back. With the 3rd lowest BABIP in the league, wait until those hard liners start falling in and we'll see a good batting average with 25+ HR from Lawrie... if he can stay on the field. What a fun guy to watch not only on D but at the plate.

 

He has one of the highest IFFB rates in all of baseball, and just fyi those don't fall in for hits very often.

[Convo]

Aaron Hill's career HR/FB is 8.5%. In 2007 it was 8.6% and he had 17 home runs over a full season that year. When he hit 36 homers his HR/FB was 14.9%. He never came close to 14.9% again. Closest was 11.2% and he never came close to hitting 36 again (26 twice). Hill hit 36 homers because he was lucky. Brett is hitting homeruns at a good rate this year because he's getting lucky too. Brett has a career low 10.7% line drive rate and a career high 19.4% strikeout rate.

 

Haha. Did you watch Hill that year? Just because his stats are against norms doesn't mean he was lucky. He was on everything that year he hit 36. Don't be so naive.

[crmr]

OK. It's April (although I didn't really have to check because I'm a super smart guy and all). Now what?

 

Now it's time to realize it's best to be patient with your evaluations

[Camps]

He's looked better the past week or so. BABIP will climb, HR/FB will drop, could easily see a 270/340/440 or so line at the end of the year, which would be a step forward and with his defence makes him a pretty good 3B with lots of upside still.

[Daniel Labude]

Aaron Hill's career HR/FB is 8.5%. In 2007 it was 8.6% and he had 17 home runs over a full season that year. When he hit 36 homers his HR/FB was 14.9%. He never came close to 14.9% again. Closest was 11.2% and he never came close to hitting 36 again (26 twice). Hill hit 36 homers because he was lucky. Brett is hitting homeruns at a good rate this year because he's getting lucky too. Brett has a career low 10.7% line drive rate and a career high 19.4% strikeout rate.

 

That argument doesnt work since he has changed his swing. If he was still crouched and wiggling the bat like a mad man maybe this argument works, but its a completely different stance and mostly different swing. The increase in homeruns can be attributed to the new stance and swing, which means previous numbers may be completley irrelevant. We should just let the season play out and see what type of numbers he puts up with his new hitting "approach".

[GD]

Aaron Hill's career HR/FB is 8.5%. In 2007 it was 8.6% and he had 17 home runs over a full season that year. When he hit 36 homers his HR/FB was 14.9%. He never came close to 14.9% again. Closest was 11.2% and he never came close to hitting 36 again (26 twice). Hill hit 36 homers because he was lucky. Brett is hitting homeruns at a good rate this year because he's getting lucky too. Brett has a career low 10.7% line drive rate and a career high 19.4% strikeout rate.

 

Careful with the difference between if what he was doing was lucky or unsustainable. Ryan Goins BABIPing .400 on 10% LDs, hypothetically, would be lucky. Hill pulling a high HR/FB% that year that he was mashing everything was probably unsustainable, which it ended up being, but it wasn't luck. It was a good season that wasn't a true talent change.

[saskjayfan]

regardless of what the statistics say, Lawrie's mechanics have been better of late. He's not near as quick with his lower half and he's not getting stuck like he was early in the season. His approach seems a bit better. It looks like he's just reacting to the ball a bit more, but he had a couple bat hacks yesterday mixed in with 2 great at bats. His approach is still a work in progress, but his average is going to climb.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Brett Lawrie looks better of late not great. Hrs and RBI aside he still has a ways to go!

Baby steps, here's to hoping he is finally figuring it all out and seeing him get there!

If does it will be huge and then we can call him great!

[Convo]

IMO the Red Bull is doing him more harm than good, not even talking about whatever negative health effects it will cause him over time, rather the inability to maintain a constant energy level could really f*** with a guys consistency in all aspects of the game. Imagine that his energy level will always be fluctuating between normal to high and somewhere inbetween, rather than being constantly normal. I can't imagine anything messing more with a players timing at the plate or in the field.

[Convo]

I'm legitimately concerned about his heart long-term, energy drinks are not a great thing to start with, and downing them like water is insane.

 

Outside of that, what did you think of my concern about his energy levels / timing?

[crmr]

If you drive your car into a wall, can you say, shortly thereafter, utilizing a keen intellect and a wisdom paralleled by none, that you drove your car into a wall ... or must you repeat the process a few times in order to make sure that the car was, in fact, driven into the wall the first time?

 

Of course his BABIP will change. But he's making legitimately horrid contact, except for the occasional HR (and his HR/FB rate will - shockingly - decrease as well, at least in terms of flies to left, since that rate right now is 100%). And there's a reason for it. A distinct and noticeable reason. Don't think anyone is saying it will be this bad, in terms of degree (i.e. rate) going forward. But it's not as if he's just drilling the ball and getting unlucky. The OD is taking his GB or HR tendency on pulled pitches to an extreme, and is hitting like he has fawtys taped to his hands when he's going opposite field.

 

If, on the other hand, he was approaching his PAs just like previous years, and if, on the other hand, he had a spray chart which showed quality contact utilizing the field appropriately (generally speaking, or with respect to his "typical" skillset/tendencies), then you'd have a point, to just sit and wait it out. Because it's May. Oops. Darn it. Forgot to check the calendar before typing that one. Me silly.

 

Interestingly your second point, despite how stupid your first was (hint: not everything is random) , agreed with my point, which you initially disagreed with...

 

To help you out some regarding your first analogy, it would be better if you took your car hitting wall scenario, using it to attempt to learn the driver's skill, and instead of determining them to be a bad driver based on whether they hit a wall, look at the random elements around the situation (such as, perhaps a truck ran them into a wall?)

 

Either way, since you agree his babip will increase from 140 I'm happy to see we are in agreement

[reedjohnsonfan]

I never said his BABIP wouldn't increase.

 

Ok so I don't really know why you're going off on tangents arguing then. All I said was he looks good at the plate. Amidst all this is 3 consecutive multihit games. Looking forward to another one tonight.

[Frenchsoup]

Ok so I don't really know why you're going off on tangents arguing then. All I said was he looks good at the plate. Amidst all this is 3 consecutive multihit games. Looking forward to another one tonight.

 

He's not playing tonight (stiff back) looks like the hot yoga with Lind ain't working to well

[Stangstag]

He's not playing tonight (stiff back) looks like the hot yoga with Lind ain't working to well

 

Lol. 23 year-old with a stiff back. Awesome.

[reedjohnsonfan]

He's not playing tonight (stiff back) looks like the hot yoga with Lind ain't working to well

 

Didn't realize that. Damn. Apparently it's "very minor".

[Daniel Labude]

He's not playing tonight (stiff back) looks like the hot yoga with Lind ain't working to well

 

Hope its a product of the cold rain last night and he is good to go tomorrow.

[dmrich28]

Hope its a product of the cold rain last night and he is good to go tomorrow.

 

 

LOL, 23 years old and bad back because of rain.

[reedjohnsonfan]

5 straight multihit games. Looking like he's turning the corner.