The 2014 Josh Johnson Thread

[vic city]

There seems to be quite the divide in this forum regarding JJ, so I thought I'd start a thread for all JJ discussion throughout the season. Feel free to place all bets here as well.

 

I know a few of you have quite the circle jerk going on with him. Personally, I think it's only a matter of time before we see the headline "Josh Johnson placed on DL". I'm glad AA let him walk.

 

Play ball!

[Slot Machine]

Progression to the mean?

[pickoff22]

Won't go out and say that he avoids the DL, but I suspect the numbers he puts up when on the mound are slightly above average. Think it was well worth the gamble for SD.

[The Cats Ass]

2003 Esteban Loaiza

[GD]

Progression to the mean?

 

Positive regression and progression are different.

[Dr. Dinger]

Progression to the mean?

 

That's not a thing.

[Dr. Dinger]

Johnson had a 3.58 xFIP last year and struck out a batter per inning. He had a fluky HR rate and BABIP but was otherwise the pitcher we expected (injuries and all). His velo and SwStr % were virtually identical to 2012. Going to a home run supressing park, there's every reason to suspect he'll be successful again this year, he's been a damn good pitcher his entire career and everything looks fine under the hood.

 

I said it then and I'll say it now, we should have tendered a QO to JJ.

[HERPDERP]

Anyone else here really didn't mind the Johnson acquisition? Note I don't believe in 2nd guessing.

 

He was the best available player to obtain when considering cost.

 

No one expected him to be absolutely horseshit. I don't think it's fair to second guess after the fact, but at the time when we acquired him it was considered to be a good move.

 

I mean, it's no different than having the Jays acquire a player like Ackley and everyone here absolutely loving the move, when a year from now he ends up hitting .180 and gets sent halfway through the season and people here second guess the move.

[Brenner]

He's been on the DL for extended periods of time in 5 of the last 7 seasons. Missed over half the season in 4 of those years. His last 3 seasons involved missing all but 9 starts due to a shoulder issue that was never surgically repaired; a "comeback" season in which he had reduced velo and struggled away from the spacious confines of Marlins Park; and a season in which he had 3 different arm issues and an operation.

 

If my employee wished to gamble $14M on that asset, I'd ask for his keys to the executive bathroom, and probably contact the sheriff to make sure he was supervised on the way home ... to make sure he didn't accidentally hurt himself or others.

 

If you aren't willing to put up with the health risk then the question is why acquire him in the first place. You paid the price in assets for either 2 years of JJ or 1 year of JJ + the draft pick. The health risk was always there.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

I watched him pitch yesterday, or the day before.....he looked real good.

 

He looked real good last year as well in spring training. We all know how well that ended up. JJ's stats clearly indicate a down turn since 2010, possibly due to arm issues. The question will be how meaningful those arm issues have become. That is the key point that the "we should have QO'd him" group seem to be missing, you have to factor in a discount on salary to reflect that risk. So if you think he's worth $14M, then a healthy JJ has to be worth $20M-$22M. I'm not convinced he will regain his form from 2010 and prior.

[KSaw]

I'd have qualified him and been fine with him accepting. He clearly had a triceps issue all year and came back too soon.

[The Cats Ass]

He didn't have a triceps issue all year. He had a triceps issue early in the year. Then had a forearm issue later. He claimed it was a muscle issue, and nothing more. Dr. Andrews looked him over and agreed. And then he had surgery for bone spurs in his elbow. Why would an injury-prone pitcher being injured again and again be viewed as a good or acceptable thing?

 

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-E3ZO-VWNYIM/T2nx_6PHK4I/AAAAAAAAAHg/Kvb_EXMw3Zs/s1600/Doc.jpg

[The Cats Ass]

Nothing I'm saying requires me to be a "doctor" ... I'm simply reciting his past injuries and what's been reported to everyone.

 

http://messiah2k.com/photos/drphil.jpg

[The Cats Ass]

Huh? That just doesn't make any sense, given the context. Someone speculated that something that was no public, is the reason for his issue last year. I simply stated what you can find anywhere, like rotoworld (as a clearinghouse for collected info) recounting what actually happened last year.

 

So far I've stated that a guy who keeps getting injured over a long period of time stands a good chance of getting injured again, making him a very risky investment and that, per the injury reports and the words of Johnson and Andrews themselves, the triceps issue wasn't his only issue last year. Is that enough to make you a licensed doctor in Canada?

 

http://uselessbits.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/thx-captain-obvious2.jpg?w=595

[The Cats Ass]

Yeah ... I'm the problem.

 

http://static2.fjcdn.com/thumbnails/comments/YES+Matt+and+Trey+are+gonna+bash+the+hell+out+_90dad3adb9d0c67fcf44a6e8598fd767.jpg

[GD]

Step up your image file game lol

[The Cats Ass]

Step up your image file game lol

 

I'll try. I was actually a little busy with work, and just wanted to leave a stupid reply to moogy.

[KSaw]

I was saying that he returned too soon. Whether the triceps was medically cleared or not, he did clearly pitch like it bothered him. His damn release point was even different on fastballs to breaking balls. He was destined to get lit up.

 

Being injured chronically is not ok. It's absolutely a big warning bell but his downfall in 2013 did/does appear to be correctable. That doesn't mean that he won't get hurt again. I'm saying that it's likely that he becomes a good pitcher again. For how long? No idea.

[The Cats Ass]

Aka "status quo"

 

http://27.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lp7u016yoo1qbkc1no2_250.gif

[jaysblue]

Decent chance he has a better season than anyone on Toronto's staff.

 

Yes especially in that ballpark.

[GD]

http://27.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lp7u016yoo1qbkc1no2_250.gif

 

Image file game = stepped up

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Thank the f***ing lord we didn't offer him the QO.

 

TJS

 

Everyone apologize to Moogy please.

[G-Snarls]

Moogy right again

[BlueJaysGirl]

I would have QOed him for sure, but man, I'm glad the Jays didn't now.

 

It's weird, and SSS, but so many of the FA trade prospect pitchers tied to the Jays during the offseason haven't worked out. Santana the glaring exception. And I guess Tanaka. But JJ, Ubaldo, etc., are sucking. Anderson from the A's, is on the DL. Lincecum, who way back before he re-signed seemed like a fit, has sucked.

 

The Twins signed a bunch of middling SP, and they are sucking.

 

So far standing pat has sort of worked.

[S33n]

And in this case health > quality of his pitching.

[Atothe]

And maybe the FO knew there were legitimate health concerns and not making it was the right call, but not making the QO because of his performance would have been dumb. We as the public don't have enough info on medical reports and injuries, so when we play armchair, we should just assume healthy.

 

I wish he gets healthy so he can good again but he's like rich man's Rich harden

[z3r0s]

You wouldn't have to add much to my DDL disabled list to make a good staff.

 

Josh Johnson

Dylan Bundy

James Paxton

 

god damn

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

The dispute wasn't over his health, it was over the quality of his pitching.

 

No, the dispute was over his value, that is impacted by his performance since 2010 AND his recent injury history. I clearly stated this twice,

that he's not worth $20-$22M per season any more when healthy. You countered someone with your model which assessed Johnson's injury

risk as being no higher then most of the league. Not a good assumption at all, especially when there is some risk that his performance since 2010 to some degree might be due to injuries that have permanently affected his ceiling. This is not for sure, but it has to built into any assessment of

his value. As I said before, consult an actuary about this you'll have to discount his value every time substantially.

 

btw I have been saying trade/drop Johnson since June 2013. Not because he's useless, but because a team with chronic pitcher injuries and loaded with #4 and #5 level starters ( we have more then enough of those ) cannot invest a substantial portion of their budget on a known higher end injury risk.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

You, as a member of the public, have nowhere near enough information to make assumptions on health. There's no point debating, since none of us are in the FO and have access to medicals. Only thing we can debate is the quality of his pitching.

 

WRONG. There was plenty enough information in the public domain to know the QO was not appropriate. The fact that you stubbornly insist that isn't the case, even after the baseball market assessed him at $8M, reflects on your own inability to big picture things.

 

If you think a legit actuary would lump Johnson along with the rest of his peers into the same risk group you aren't understanding much about the nature of risk and valuation.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

I would have QOed him for sure, but man, I'm glad the Jays didn't now.

 

It's weird, and SSS, but so many of the FA trade prospect pitchers tied to the Jays during the offseason haven't worked out. Santana the glaring exception. And I guess Tanaka. But JJ, Ubaldo, etc., are sucking. Anderson from the A's, is on the DL. Lincecum, who way back before he re-signed seemed like a fit, has sucked.

 

The Twins signed a bunch of middling SP, and they are sucking.

 

So far standing pat has sort of worked.

 

My theory before this preseason was the pitching market was weak/expensive and the Jays should consider upgrading their hitting line up instead ( I liked Beltran for example ). If they insisted on getting a pitcher, Tanaka maybe as a high end gamble or Santana as an insurance policy if they felt desperate ( not knowing the injury status of our guys I could see this as potentially being an ok signing if $ ok ).

 

There is always a lot of guesswork on these things, some other posters liked Garza and he's been fine. But imagine if we had signed a couple of hitters, how good this team would look now ( not to mention maybe somebody else is a little weaker if we sign one of their acquisitions ). Standing pat does allow us to acquire somebody midseason now, so the Jays strategy is only good if they are smart enough to do this. We are a little thin right now, but potentially very good with the right 1 or 2 moves. I wouldn't wait until the break, they need to make hay now in the standings which minimum means get one more quality batter asap.

 

I am concerned that AA's habit of standing pat will ruin an excellent chance to contend this season. Sierra looks bad to me, they need a better player and/or a better bench. They can get away with one injured pitcher ( Redmond can replace ), but if two guys go down which is likely it gets troublesome. So trade or sign for another hitter now, and closer to the deadline if things are going well you trade for a pitcher if you need one. I don't think 2B is a big deal as long as Reyes comes back healthy. But Thole coming in to DH instead of Lind is a reminder how thin we are, no contender has that kind of situation very long.