AL East O/U odds

[reedjohnsonfan]

These are the decimal odds I'm getting on my betting site.

 

Baltimore Orioles

Over 81.5

1.91

Under 81.5

1.83

 

Boston Red Sox

Over 88

1.95

Under 88

1.80

 

New York Yankees

Over 87

2.00

Under 87

1.77

 

Tampa Bay Rays

Over 88

1.87

Under 88

1.87

 

Toronto Blue Jays

Over 79.5

1.74

Under 79.5

2.05

 

Not sure about you guys, but Tampa at under 88 seems like the best best.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Actually the Boston under looks good too, maybe I'm just biased.

[Dick_Pole]

I actually don't like the return on the Jays anymore. When the World Series odds came out on my book I was salivating because the odds assumed the Jays season win total would have been around 74-76. I would have cleared my bank account to take that one, but not at 79.5 and not at 1.74 return.

[Dick_Pole]

I assume he means Baltimore @ 81.5.

 

Honestly none of these odds speak to me. Yankees under 87 would be my favourite of the 5 but the odds are s***.

[reedjohnsonfan]

I assume he means Baltimore @ 81.5.

 

Honestly none of these odds speak to me. Yankees under 87 would be my favourite of the 5 but the odds are s***.

 

Ya they're terrible, a pick'em is considered 1.87. You always get bad odds on these futures, maybe other sites are better for this. But I think the Yankees should be pretty good, under on Boston seems like the best pick and under on Tampa would be 2nd for me. Baltimore should be above .500, not that I think they are very good.

 

Hey it's weird, for a lot of years we considered the Jays pretty good but in the best division, and now the division is a little weaker and so are the Jays. Too bad.

[Dick_Pole]

Ya they're terrible, a pick'em is considered 1.87. You always get bad odds on these futures, maybe other sites are better for this. But I think the Yankees should be pretty good, under on Boston seems like the best pick and under on Tampa would be 2nd for me. Baltimore should be above .500, not that I think they are very good.

 

Hey it's weird, for a lot of years we considered the Jays pretty good but in the best division, and now the division is a little weaker and so are the Jays. Too bad.

 

I wouldn't consider the division weak, I think every team will finish .500 or better this year. I thought the same last year and was 80% right lol. Because they play each other so much, it makes it hard for teams to have 90+ wins in that circumstance unless they all really beat up on the AL Central again as usual.

[reedjohnsonfan]

I wouldn't consider the division weak, I think every team will finish .500 or better this year. I thought the same last year and was 80% right lol. Because they play each other so much, it makes it hard for teams to have 90+ wins in that circumstance unless they all really beat up on the AL Central again as usual.

 

That's a good point. I did say a little weaker, so I didn't mean it was a weak division... just not at the level where the top 2 teams were considered the class of the AL. Texas and Detroit are probably still better than anyone in the AL. I would say that for sure the East is the deepest division in all of baseball.

[Dick_Pole]

That's a good point. I did say a little weaker, so I didn't mean it was a weak division... just not at the level where the top 2 teams were considered the class of the AL. Texas and Detroit are probably still better than anyone in the AL. I would say that for sure the East is the deepest division in all of baseball.

 

Then it goes back to this philosophical debate...would Detroit be the "class" of the AL in the AL East against tough opponents? I don't think so. Detroit is overrated imo because their team looks so damn good as a fantasy team...pitching and hitting. But then people forget that their defense is super, super s***...well some of the SABR freaks may point it out, but not enough of them.

[fatcowxlive]

I think the Jays can get over 80 wins this year. Much less pressure to preform. Also the O's should (hopefully) do crap next year (more holes than us believe it or not) and I don't think the BoSox are repeating last year.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Then it goes back to this philosophical debate...would Detroit be the "class" of the AL in the AL East against tough opponents? I don't think so. Detroit is overrated imo because their team looks so damn good as a fantasy team...pitching and hitting. But then people forget that their defense is super, super s***...well some of the SABR freaks may point it out, but not enough of them.

 

I still think they are better than any team in the East.

[reedjohnsonfan]

I think the Jays can get over 80 wins this year. Much less pressure to preform. Also the O's should (hopefully) do crap next year (more holes than us believe it or not) and I don't think the BoSox are repeating last year.

 

You're just always extremely optimistic. While I like that, it's hard to take it seriously.

[Dick_Pole]

I think the Jays can get over 80 wins this year. Much less pressure to preform. Also the O's should (hopefully) do crap next year (more holes than us believe it or not) and I don't think the BoSox are repeating last year.

 

There's two pikes reserved for the heads of Beeston and Anthopolous if this team is nowhere near a playoff spot. I think the pressure to perform is ample enough.

[fatcowxlive]

You're just always extremely optimistic. While I like that, it's hard to take it seriously.

 

Well I provided reasoning so take it how you want to take it. The O's do indeed have more holes than us, and the Red Sox don't have a chance at taking after losing Ellsebury (Jackie Bradley is good, but not Ellsebury good yet) and according to Fangraphs their the team that lost the most fWAR this offseason so on paper they shouldn't be able to preform like last year. We could land in 4th and still achieve 80+ wins.

 

There's two pikes reserved for the heads of Beeston and Anthopolous if this team is nowhere near a playoff spot. I think the pressure to perform is ample enough.

 

Not by the media. A majority of the fanbase were yelling 'postseason' and every time there was postseason predictions we were up there. No one's talking about us right now in a positive/encouraging light.

[Anemic0ffense]

Yeah... People just assume that the Jays have nowhere to go but up... Believe me, it can get A LOT WORSE than last year. We could see a 60 win season if the injuries start piling up again. This team has hideous depth.

[reedjohnsonfan]

There's two pikes reserved for the heads of Beeston and Anthopolous if this team is nowhere near a playoff spot. I think the pressure to perform is ample enough.

 

Ya haha. There is plenty of pressure on them this year. You can give them a mulligan for one bad season, but you can't give them two passes.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Well I provided reasoning so take it how you want to take it. The O's do indeed have more holes than us, and the Red Sox don't have a chance at taking after losing Ellsebury (Jackie Bradley is good, but not Ellsebury good yet) and according to Fangraphs their the team that lost the most fWAR this offseason so on paper they shouldn't be able to preform like last year. We could land in 4th and still achieve 80+ wins.

 

 

 

Not by the media. A majority of the fanbase were yelling 'postseason' and every time there was postseason predictions we were up there. No one's talking about us right now in a positive/encouraging light.

 

Ok so why do the O's have more holes? You think there's less pressure on the team? How about AA getting fired if they don't make the playoffs? I'd say that's a likely scenario.

[KSaw]

I'm only half kidding when I say that the lack of Bonifaco booting balls at 2b and Arencibia not being on the team is at least worth 8 more wins.

[fireballW]

I'm only half kidding when I say that the lack of Bonifaco booting balls at 2b and Arencibia not being on the team is at least worth 8 more wins.

 

I believe Arencibia's negative effect on the rotation is not even measurable. Hopefully major league pitchers are tougher mentally than I was, but still I can't imagine they weren't annoyed by the way he wouldn't even flip up a target until either the last possible second, or not at all. I had a catcher who wouldn't put up a clear target before when pitching and couldn't stand it. In fact just pitching to such a cocky, arrogant catcher would have me annoyed each time he signaled for me to calm down or each visit he'd make to the mound. It's hard to pitch to a guy you don't like / respect. Let alone one that is terrible and cocky at the same time.

[KSaw]

And all that aside, just on crazy erratic late inning throws, JPA/ Bonifacio threw away 6 wins. Arencibia did steal one.. one with a hero home run. So I count 5 losses that should have been wins. Throw in early inning blunders and terrible at bats and I'm still hovering at at least 8 more wins next year just by subtraction.

[KSaw]

Also, removing a catcher who couldn't catch Dickey, Morrow, Santos, McGowan, Jeffress or Drabek and while never calling for anyone's splitter... do the math if its measurable.

[TheHurl]

Here are SI's numbers

 

egular Season Wins - Arizona DiamondbackOver +80.5 1.91Under +80.5 1.80

Regular Season Wins - L.A. Dodgers Over +92.5 1.85Under +92.5 1.854

Regular Season Wins - Atlanta Braves Over +87.5 1.80Under +87.5 1.91

Regular Season Wins - Baltimore Orioles Over +80.5 1.85Under +80.5 1.85

Regular Season Wins - Boston Red Sox Over +87.5 1.85Under +87.5 1.85

Regular Season Wins - Chicago Cubs Over +69.5 1.91Under +69.5 1.80

Regular Season Wins - Chicago White Sox Over +75.5 1.80Under +75.5 1.91

Regular Season Wins - Cincinnati Reds Over +84.5 1.91Under +84.5 1.80

Regular Season Wins - Cleveland Indians Over +80.5 1.85Under +80.5 1.8

5Regular Season Wins - Colorado Rockies Over +76.5 1.91Under +76.5 1.80

Regular Season Wins - Detroit Tigers Over +89.5 1.85Under +89.5 1.85

Regular Season Wins - Kansas City Royals Over +81.5 1.85Under +81.5 1.85

Regular Season Wins - L.A. Angels Over +86.5 1.80Under +86.5 1.91

Regular Season Wins - Miami Marlins Over +69.5 1.91Under +69.5 1.80

Regular Season Wins - Milwaukee Brewers Over +79.5 1.85Under +79.5 1.85

Regular Season Wins - Minnesota Twins Over +70.5 1.91Under +70.5 1.80

Regular Season Wins - New York Mets Over +73.5 1.80Under +73.5 1.91

Regular Season Wins - Oakland Athletics Over +88.5 1.85Under +88.5 1.85

Regular Season Wins - Philadelphia Phillies Over +76.5 1.80Under +76.5 1.91

Regular Season Wins - Pittsburgh Pirates Over +83.5 1.91Under +83.5 1.80

Regular Season Wins - San Diego Padres Over +78.5 1.85Under +78.5 1.85

Regular Season Wins - San Francisco Giants Over +96.5 1.91Under +96.5 1.80

Regular Season Wins - Seattle Mariners Over +81.5 1.85Under +81.5 1.85 Regular

Season Wins - St Louis Cardinals Over +90.5 1.80Under +90.5 1.91

Regular Season Wins - Tampa Bay Rays Over +88.0 1.85Under +88.0 1.85

Regular Season Wins - Texas Rangers Over +88.5 1.91Under +88.5 1.80

Regular Season Wins - Toronto Blue Jays Over +79.5 1.80Under +79.5 1.91

Regular Season Wins - Washington Nationals Over +90.0 1.91Under +90.0 1.80

Regular Season Wins - Houston Astros Over +62.5 1.80Under +62.5 1.91

Regular Season Wins - New York Yankees Over +86.5 1.91Under +86.5 1.80

[KSaw]

Over

Over

Over

Over

Under

Under

Under

Over

Under

Under

Under

Over

Under

Over

Under

Over

Over

Under

Over

Over

Under

Under

Over

Over

Under

Over

Over

Over

Over

Under

[KSaw]

Royals, Reds, Jays, Mariners, Marlins and Nats overs and Yankees and Giants unders look like gifts.

[fatcowxlive]

Ok so why do the O's have more holes? You think there's less pressure on the team? How about AA getting fired if they don't make the playoffs? I'd say that's a likely scenario.

 

Well like us, they have a hole at 2B (Jemail Weeks? LOL). They also have a hole at DH (Nolan Reimold<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

[Sammy225]

Its tricky. If the blue jays lineup stays healthy it could be one of if not the best 1-7 in the American League. In that case I would take the over.

 

Baltimore I think is defiantly a over.

 

Yanks is tricky I would say under but it could go either way I would not want that one.

 

BSox is right around where I would put them too it is hard but I would say over.

 

TBay I would do under.

[Frenchsoup]

How does weeks have tremendous upside? i think Flaherty will start the majority of games for them anyways

[fatcowxlive]

First, the pens are always flaky, and they have plenty of new faces and failed starters to form a passable pen ... Just as an example, Gausman could be ready soon, Yoon could be a quality pen guy (if not a starter) and Norris moves to the pen to make way for Gausman. Then they're suddenly deep. And don't be surprised if some Jays' relievers regress.

 

As to the 2B hole ... Weeks has tremendous upside. Schoop is there, as well. So, even if they aren't established and certain at 2B, they have a chance at a productive 2B. The Jays have Goins.

 

The Orioles have a much better rotation.

 

If Markakis bounces back, they're going to have a quality offense. I've always been a fan of Reimold's skill set ... guy just can't stay healthy.

 

The Orioles are better than the Jays right now, as long Machado can go. They just don't have the margin for error that a team like the Sox or Rays have to maintain that superiority.

 

The first part is super pessimistic. You think there's more chance that the O's bullpen overachive and the Jays BP breaks down compared to the opposite? Come on lol

 

I forgot about Schoop, but Weeks has no real upside anymore lol the dude has no real tools other than speed.

 

Not really, The O's IMO are as scrambled for rotation spots. If anything, if both rotations are healthy the Jays easily outpreform the O's. If Dickey can hit that 2012 stride he'll outpreform everyone on that O's rotation. I believe Morrow will bounce back, and if he does, he and Buherle are better than the rest of the O's rotation in terms of quality (except for Jimenez I mean). Hutchinson has the chance to be a real treat, and one of Happ/Redmond will suffice as a #5.

 

I also believe that our offence is way stronger than that of the O's:

 

Navarro > Wieters

EE <<<<< Davis

Goins <<< Schoop

Lawrie = Machado (real chance of this if Lawrie puts everything together)

Reyes >>> Hardy

Melky < Cruz (Melky put up a 87 wRC+ with his tumor while Cruz had a near-career norm 122 wRC+ on da juice)

Rasmus >> Jones

Bautista >>>> Markakis

Lind >>> Reimold

[GD]

Navarro > Wieters

EE <<<<< Davis

Goins <<< Schoop

Lawrie = Machado (real chance of this if Lawrie puts everything together)

Reyes >>> Hardy

Melky < Cruz (Melky put up a 87 wRC+ with his tumor while Cruz had a near-career norm 122 wRC+ on da juice)

Rasmus >> Jones

Bautista >>>> Markakis

Lind >>> Reimold

 

I find your uses of greater and less than signs shocking and disturbing.

[John_Havok]

I'm a bit confused about the scale. Chris Davis is 5 greaterthans better than Edwin while Bautista is only 4 greaterthans better than Markakis.

 

I'm trying to wrap my had around Navarro being greater than Wieters...

 

And LoL @Moogy and his Orioles have a much better rotation... There's really not a huge gap at all to anyone with the ability to look at things objectively.

[GD]

I'm a bit confused about the scale. Chris Davis is 5 greaterthans better than Edwin while Bautista is only 4 greaterthans better than Markakis.

 

Wholly enjoying Navarro > Wieters and Melky < Cruz.