What events have to occur in order for the Jays to make the 2014 playoffs?

[Spoonovic]

Assuming no more significant transactions.

 

In my opinion:

-Bautista, Reyes, Lawrie and Encarncion have to be healthy all year.

-Lawrie has to take a step forward.

-Bautista, Reyes and Encarncion need to play as good as they did last year over the span of a full season

-Rasmus has to show he is for real

-Bullpen has to be above average.

-Dickey has to pitch like he did in the 2nd half last year

-Marky B needs to pitch like his career avg

-Morrow needs to pitch close to how he did two years ago.

-Stroman and Hutch need to be league average

-Timely injuries to Red Sox, Yankees and Rays.

 

Is this too much to ask for?

[Anemic0ffense]

The other AL East teams forfeit the season.

[TDotttt2005]

Sign Brian McCann

Sign Ellsbury

Sign Beltran

Win posting for Tanaka

[Abomination]

Imo it all comes down to the pitching staff (and no catastrophic injuries to position players like we suffered with Reyes and Melky). If the pitching staff is healthy, chances are it will perform (although it might take some mixing and matching with the #4 and #5 slots)

[G-Snarls]

Assuming no more significant transactions.

 

In my opinion:

-Bautista, Reyes, Lawrie and Encarncion have to be healthy all year.

-Lawrie has to take a step forward.

-Bautista, Reyes and Encarncion need to play as good as they did last year over the span of a full season

-Rasmus has to show he is for real

-Bullpen has to be above average.

-Dickey has to pitch like he did in the 2nd half last year

-Marky B needs to pitch like his career avg

-Morrow needs to pitch close to how he did two years ago.

-Stroman and Hutch need to be league average

-Timely injuries to Red Sox, Yankees and Rays.

 

Is this too much to ask for?

 

Agree on all counts, and yes it is WAY too much to ask for

 

A Lind platoon partner takes pressure off him

 

Sainging Jimenez would have made a Dickey failure or Morrow injury more sustainable

 

Infante or Drew or a trade for 2B would mean we could survive a Lawrie or Reyes injury stint better

[Angrioter]

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HUu42QAxTr0/TwG41pofOWI/AAAAAAAAGVw/Pa3BmV6LSsM/w497-h373/epic-fail-gifs-epic-win.gif

[CHRIS]

A 2012 version of Cabrera would be nice, as would healthy Morrow.

[dineke]

120 million for a 3 year window that's 2 cm wide. Crap.

[Olerud363]

Assuming no more significant transactions.

 

In my opinion:

-Bautista, Reyes, Lawrie and Encarncion have to be healthy all year.

-Lawrie has to take a step forward.

-Bautista, Reyes and Encarncion need to play as good as they did last year over the span of a full season

-Rasmus has to show he is for real

-Bullpen has to be above average.

-Dickey has to pitch like he did in the 2nd half last year

-Marky B needs to pitch like his career avg

-Morrow needs to pitch close to how he did two years ago.

-Stroman and Hutch need to be league average

-Timely injuries to Red Sox, Yankees and Rays.

 

Is this too much to ask for?

 

If number one, number 2, and 3 of Dickey, Marky, Morrow, Stroman and Hutch are slightly above average the Jays will make the playoffs.

 

I think what people are underestimating is the probability of this happening.

 

Say there is a 90% chance for each of Bautista, Reyes, Lawrie and EE to be healthy... there is only a 63% chance they will all be healthy.

 

Then say there is a 50% chance Lawrie will take a step forward. That means there is a 30% chance they will all be healthy and Lawrie will step forward, blah, blah, blah.,

 

After working it all out there is only a minute chance, 1 in a million probably that your scenario as written comes true.

 

The good news there are other scenarios that produce a pennant. For example Bautista, Reyes and Dickey play at peak MVP like level (with only other minor things going wrong).

 

Stroman and Hutch battle for rookie of the year. Morrow pitches 200 innings with Lawrie playing 160 games.

 

These projection systems take all this into account. Some of them I think simulate seasons thousands of times. I guesse those simulations give you a good idea of the odds. Haven't seen that type of data this year. But I guess the 2014 Jays make playoffs 5-10% of the time in those?

[FireAlexAnthopoulos]

In a stunning move, Selig contracts the Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, and Orioles.

 

Actually, scratch that - AA would still find a way to miss the playoffs even as the only team in the division.

[Nox]

http://bit.ly/1fayLMX

[awsomest]

To be honest the hail mary here could be that all the guys on the weighted ball program now (redmond, rogers, mcgowan) have delebar and cecil and hell even santos like improvements.

[fatcowxlive]

We pull a miracle AFTER we acquire a solid 2B, a solid bat, our starters go back to form and we sign one more starter + have a breakout season from another pitcher (notably Hutch or Stroman).

 

So basically what BTS said lol

http://static.rcgroups.net/forums/attachments/8/4/0/3/9/a3746338-145-random-funny-stuff-funny-road-signs-Norway-hell-frozen-over.jpg?d=1295679634

[fatcowxlive]

We need players to stay relatively healthy and perform to their career norms while having our young guys improve somewhat. Lawrie needs to have a big year at the plate and having some of our arms in the minors coming up and performing won't hurt either.

 

That's enough to make the postseason?

[Olerud363]

http://bit.ly/1fayLMX

 

I'm not sure if it is that bad, If I am reading this right Fangraphs has them at 34% chance of making the playoffs. Only 16 of winning the division. 2 wild cards help.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx

 

The average team has a 33% chance of making the playoffs. So this says Blue Jays are an average team.

 

They are projected as 82, which I think everyone roughly agrees on.

 

However another 5 or 6 "projected" wins makes a huge difference in playoff odds. This makes recent events more discouraging. By adding 5 wins (Ubaldo, Drew, some little things like Lind platoon) the playoff odds would of doubled and the odds for ALDS, ALCS, and world series basically triples.

 

I think the angst seen here today is a good example of crowd wisdom. The turkeys here realize the importance of going from an 82 projection to 88 even if AA and Beeston don't.

[Nox]

I'm not sure if it is that bad

 

It definitely would not be an actual rare event. I was just being an ass.

 

The Fangraphs odds seem about right.

Edited February 18, 2014 by Nox

[John_Havok]

Assuming no more significant transactions.

 

In my opinion:

-Bautista, Reyes, Lawrie and Encarncion have to be healthy all year.

-Lawrie has to take a step forward.

-Bautista, Reyes and Encarncion need to play as good as they did last year over the span of a full season

-Rasmus has to show he is for real

-Bullpen has to be above average.

-Dickey has to pitch like he did in the 2nd half last year

-Marky B needs to pitch like his career avg

-Morrow needs to pitch close to how he did two years ago.

-Stroman and Hutch need to be league average

-Timely injuries to Red Sox, Yankees and Rays.

 

Is this too much to ask for?

 

You forgot "AA pulls head out of Beeston's ass and remembers to improve team"

[Olerud363]

It definitely would not be an actual rare event. I was just being an ass.

 

The Fangraphs odds seem about right.

 

That they have not made it in 20 years is closer to a rare event. Especially given the position they started from.

 

It would be interesting to have a tool that would dynamically generate the odds based on different moves. MLB teams must have access to such things.

 

For example run the odds with Ubalda in Baltimore and Drew in Boston, then run them again with Ubalda in Toronto, and Drew in Toronto.

 

Seems obvious that some organizations are doing stuff like this and probably have been for a while. Beeston and AA are too busy despairing agents.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Wanna make a bet

We'll be neck and neck

Taking off the gloves

 

Spider Vs Bat

Tiger Vs Rat

Rabbit Vs Dove

 

Wanna make a bet

Odds are neck and neck

Taking off the gloves

 

Spider Vs Bat

Tiger Vs Rat

Owl Vs Dove

 

Every living thing

Pushed into the ring

Fight it out

To wow the crowd

Guess you thought

You could just watch

No one's getting out

Without stadium love

 

Wanna make a trade

Couger for a snake

Wanna fall in love

 

Wanna make a deal

Angel Vs Eel

Owl Vs Dove

 

Every living thing

Pushed into the ring

Fight it out

To wow the crowd

Guess you thought

You could just watch

No one's getting out

Without stadium love

 

We got stadium love

 

oooooooo

ooo

ooooooooooooo

oooooooo

[o2cui2i]

Hell has to freeze over causing 14 teams to have horrible bus accidents.

[Boxcar]

Wanna make a bet

We'll be neck and neck

Taking off the gloves

 

Spider Vs Bat

Tiger Vs Rat

Rabbit Vs Dove

 

Wanna make a bet

Odds are neck and neck

Taking off the gloves

 

Spider Vs Bat

Tiger Vs Rat

Owl Vs Dove

 

Every living thing

Pushed into the ring

Fight it out

To wow the crowd

Guess you thought

You could just watch

No one's getting out

Without stadium love

 

Wanna make a trade

Couger for a snake

Wanna fall in love

 

Wanna make a deal

Angel Vs Eel

Owl Vs Dove

 

Every living thing

Pushed into the ring

Fight it out

To wow the crowd

Guess you thought

You could just watch

No one's getting out

Without stadium love

 

We got stadium love

 

oooooooo

ooo

ooooooooooooo

oooooooo

 

die

[eastcoastjaysfan]

die

 

oooOOOO!

oooOOOO!

 

Man those might be the worst lyrics to a song I've ever seen.

 

Look like they were written by a retarded little kid. Or Adam Lind.

[JaysAllMighty]

http://scienceandbelief.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/blue_sea_parting.jpg

[fatcowxlive]

We got stadium love

 

oooooooo

ooo

ooooooooooooo

oooooooo

 

At least we have none of that horseshit anymore.... right guys?

[o2cui2i]

At least we have none of that horseshit anymore.... right guys?

 

team is already better not having Bumfiasco on the roster. dude went from deal breaker last year to DFA this year. my how times change. lol

 

 

silver lining

[Dylan]

Wanna make a bet

We'll be neck and neck

Taking off the gloves

 

Spider Vs Bat

Tiger Vs Rat

Rabbit Vs Dove

 

Wanna make a bet

Odds are neck and neck

Taking off the gloves

 

Spider Vs Bat

Tiger Vs Rat

Owl Vs Dove

 

Every living thing

Pushed into the ring

Fight it out

To wow the crowd

Guess you thought

You could just watch

No one's getting out

Without stadium love

 

Wanna make a trade

Couger for a snake

Wanna fall in love

 

Wanna make a deal

Angel Vs Eel

Owl Vs Dove

 

Every living thing

Pushed into the ring

Fight it out

To wow the crowd

Guess you thought

You could just watch

No one's getting out

Without stadium love

 

We got stadium love

 

oooooooo

ooo

ooooooooooooo

oooooooo

 

hahaha christ

[Jimcanuck]

Halladay rediscovers his 2009 form

[GD]

Wanna make a bet

We'll be neck and neck

Taking off the gloves

 

Spider Vs Bat

Tiger Vs Rat

Rabbit Vs Dove

 

Wanna make a bet

Odds are neck and neck

Taking off the gloves

 

Spider Vs Bat

Tiger Vs Rat

Owl Vs Dove

 

Every living thing

Pushed into the ring

Fight it out

To wow the crowd

Guess you thought

You could just watch

No one's getting out

Without stadium love

 

Wanna make a trade

Couger for a snake

Wanna fall in love

 

Wanna make a deal

Angel Vs Eel

Owl Vs Dove

 

Every living thing

Pushed into the ring

Fight it out

To wow the crowd

Guess you thought

You could just watch

No one's getting out

Without stadium love

 

We got stadium love

 

oooooooo

ooo

ooooooooooooo

oooooooo

 

I hope your death is as slow pathetic and painful as raysjays' existence

[FireAlexAnthopoulos]

At least we have none of that horseshit anymore.... right guys?

 

They'll find an even worse song. Hell, AA might even write a shittier one himself, not like he's spending his time productively anyway. Can't wait to hear our new theme song, "Hey Girl (I'd Sign You, But Your Value Isn't Quite Right for Our Organization)."

[dineke]

They'll find an even worse song. Hell, AA might even write a shittier one himself, not like he's spending his time productively anyway. Can't wait to hear our new theme song, "Hey Girl (I'd Sign You, But Your Value Isn't Quite Right for Our Organization)."

 

It will probably be some overplayed s*** like Imagine Dragons.