Phillies sign Burnett

[Terminator]

Calling the guy who creates the most free analytic content on this forum an *******, classy.

 

He's a big boy, he can take it.

[Terminator]

Oh you are looking at WAR. I'm not sure what stadium Oliver and Steamer are using for Capuano.

 

You probably don't care about an *******'s projections but I've got:

 

Capuano 2.8 WAR (186 IP), 3.73 Vacuum ERA

Happ 0.8 WAR (96 IP), 4.24 Vacuum ERA

 

How do you get a 2.8 WAR for Capuano? He's done that once in his career and it was nearly 10 years ago.

[G-Snarls]

Joel Sherman: "A few execs told me Burnett didn’t want to pitch in AL after #Yankees experience"

[eastcoastjaysfan]

He's a big boy, he can take it.

 

lol He's a nice guy. He comes across as a little stubborn though.

 

Anyways, let's add some winz AA.

[GeorgiaPeach]

Who cares if he costs 100 million. It's not your money.

 

And if the Jays or any other team for that matter says we can't afford someone, or we're at our payroll max, then you can't comment on past stupid signings.

[Terminator]

lol what the f***.

 

Why is that so bizzare? I'm making an arguable point (maybe it's not a popular one and perhaps it's wrong but it is certainly arguable) and he dismisses it as "ridiculous" before giving me a mini-lecture on what stats I should use. Me calling him an ******* seemed warranted to me. Or is that out of line? lol

[Terminator]

lol He's a nice guy. He comes across as a little stubborn though.

 

Anyways, let's add some winz AA.

 

I'm sure he is a nice guy. No big deal. He seems to know his stuff.

[KingKat]

He's a big boy, he can take it.

 

Well he's practically a kid which I think explains why that went over poorly.

[G-Snarls]

Please argue facts, on topic, and stop the insults or else infractions

 

[/moderator voice]

[Terminator]

I don't think arguing points with facts and stats is being an *******. I never have anything against the other person. People have their opposing opinions and that's fine.

 

To answer Terminator's question. It doesn't matter what his actual results were. His K, BB, and HR are projected from his past pitch level peripherals (which are quite good considering he throws 88). FIP is then calculated from those and converted to ERA with heavily regressed DRS numbers and regressed batted ball profile numbers. IP is arbitrarily set since it is not exactly projectable and is more due to outside factors (playing time from managers) than the individual. Then WAR is calculated from there.

 

So after all of that you end up with what is basically a career year in his age 35 season? Do similar things happen often with your predictive model?

[KingKat]

I can definitely take it and it doesn't bother me. I'm 20 years old.

 

You're the forum whiz kid. People are gonna stick up for you.

[JaysAllMighty]

I'm 20 years old.

 

I got triple that skin then... lol

[KingKat]

"*******."

 

"He's a big boy, he can take it."

 

We're still talking about baseball, right?

 

lol

[Anemic0ffense]

http://media.theweek.com/img/dir_0103/51791_article_full/too-many-americans-are-counting-pennies.jpg?199

 

^AA

[GeorgiaPeach]

Perfect deal for both sides

 

If all Burnett cared about was the money.

[Sammy225]

If all Burnett cared about was the money.

 

I was just thinking that. Did he not say he wanted to go to a contending team. I don't like his judgment if he thinks that is a contending team.

[KingKat]

I was just thinking that. Did he not say he wanted to go to a contending team. I don't like his judgment if he thinks that is a contending team.

 

I don't think he ever said that. His criteria was proximity to Baltimore and pitching in the NL which made Philadephia an obvious choice if Washington was going to say no.

[GeorgiaPeach]

Calling the guy who creates the most free analytic content on this forum an *******, classy.

 

It's interesting, don't get me wrong.

 

But it gets annoying when everything reverts back to a number, and jumping all over the place using whatever projection system serves their argument is lame.

 

Projection systems are guidelines/tools and nice to follow, but they aren't gospel.

[G-Snarls]

Gibbers:

 

[G-Snarls]

I was just thinking that. Did he not say he wanted to go to a contending team. I don't like his judgment if he thinks that is a contending team.

 

People may have ASSUMED he wanted a contending team but nothing from him ever suggested that

 

OTOH it's been pretty much conclusively reported that he wanted to pitch for a NL team and close to home. Mission accomplished. AND he got paid.

Edited February 12, 2014 by G-Snarls

[KingKat]

It's interesting, don't get me wrong.

 

But it gets annoying when everything reverts back to a number, and jumping all over the place using whatever projection system serves their argument is lame.

 

Projection systems are guidelines/tools and nice to follow, but they aren't gospel.

 

JFaS definitely argues with numbers and I could see how the way he quotes them as gospel could annoy but he doesn't jump around all the place and argue disingeneoulsy.

[KingKat]

People may have ASSUMED he wanted a contending team but nothing from him ever suggested that

 

OTOH it's been pretty much conclusively reported that he wanted to pitch for a NL team and close to home. Mission accomplished.

 

If being competitive mattered that much, he would have worked things out with Pittsburgh.

[Sammy225]

Now that Burnett is signed I bet you Jimenez and Santana sign before Sunday!

[NorthOf49]

I'll admit that the projection focus has gotten to be a bit much this offseason.

 

We're at the point where opinions that don't line up with projections are deemed worthless and are mercilessly ridiculed. I don't think that's fair. Terminator's opinion that Happ ~ Capuano is valid and I'm closer to agreeing with it then Capuano > Santana (from an expected contract view).

[KingKat]

Capuano > Santana (from an expected contract view).

 

I could see prefering Santana to Capuano in a vaccuum but are you saying Santana's contract is likely to provide better value? That seems like a real stretch.

[G-Snarls]

I could see prefering Santana to Capuano in a vaccuum but are you saying Santana's contract is likely to provide better value? That seems like a real stretch.

 

We need INNINGS. Like 200 decent innings, to mitigate against disaster. Who's the best shot to be reliable among who's left?

[KingKat]

We need INNINGS. Like 200 decent innings, to mitigate against disaster. Who's the best shot to be reliable among who's left?

 

I understand that argument but it seemed like N49 was saying the Santana contract would be better in a vaccuum which is either a real stretch or something I'm merely misunderstanding.

[NorthOf49]

I could see prefering Santana to Capuano in a vaccuum but are you saying Santana's contract is likely to provide better value? That seems like a real stretch.

I'm saying I'd agree more with Happ ~ Capuano in a performance vacuum than Capuano at 1/5 > Santana at 3/39, from a Jays perspective in which only one SP signing is possible.

[G-Snarls]

Performance > "Durability" and reliability for me.

 

Usually for me too. But with this rotation's health history I want some reasonable comfort that they'll take the mound all year.

 

Plus we don't really know which of the three remaining will perform best anyway. It's more than a bit of a crap shoot.

[G-Snarls]

I understand that argument but it seemed like N49 was saying the Santana contract would be better in a vaccuum which is either a real stretch or something I'm merely misunderstanding.

 

I didn't mean to direct my comment at you specifically. Clicked and typed too fast.