Redefining the Quality Start

[Angrioter]

http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=492&d=1389962821

 

http://www.bsports.com/statsinsights/mlb/redefining-the-quality-start

 

Edited January 17, 2014 by Angrioter

[jayswin11]

http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=492&d=1389962821

 

http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=492&d=1389962821

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]492[/ATTACH]

 

Interesting graph, especially how the %'s go down in 8th inning. Basically a manager leaving the pitcher in for one batter too many perhaps.

[Angrioter]

Interesting graph, especially how the %'s go down in 8th inning. Basically a manager leaving the pitcher in for one batter too many perhaps.

 

The point is ........... give the ball to a fresh arm at a suitable time (Stamina)

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Some odd numbers on there. 4.5% less likely to win if your pitcher goes 7IP/3ER compared to 6.2IP/3ER? What's the sample size here?

[Angrioter]

Sorry.........

http://www.bsports.com/statsinsights/mlb/redefining-the-quality-start

[Sammy225]

The point is ........... give the ball to a fresh arm at a suitable time (Stamina)

 

I don't know if it is also a fact that teams have gone to maybe an eighth inning guy when maybe they should be playing the matchups more. It is a interesting graph to say the least.

[NorthOf49]

Some odd numbers on there. 4.5% less likely to win if your pitcher goes 7IP/3ER compared to 6.2IP/3ER? What's the sample size here?

He says it goes back to 1995. Either he did it wrong or the sample should have been much bigger. You can't rely on this data to redefine anything.

[The_DH]

Better statistics would probably be based on standard deviations of innings and runs per game. Quality start is such an arbitrary line.

[JugglingPitches]

I would be more interested to see these stats for each individual pitcher.

[Abomination]

Quite interesting. His attempt to explain the odd numbers makes some sense, but there's a few more steps he could take with it to try to confirm his theory.

[connorp]

WTF.. Is JFAS sleeping on the job??.. where's the new stuff like this..lol.. jk.. I agree with Abom though.. very interesting research but the guy could've gone deeper

[Angrioter]

I'd agree with you in a hypothetical case where the fifty starter is averaging 5-6 IP per start by actually throwing 5-6 IP every start. Often though the low totals are at least partially a result of too many sub-5 inning starts. Using the pen for 6 innings after your starter gets pulled is tough on a pen, at least as they're currently handled.

 

You would have to have a bullpen with 3 swingman.

[Brenner]

I already kinda assumed pitchers go too deep into games. Teams always want to "get to the bullpen" but the starter will be easier to score off, especially if they start losing velo, movement, or accuracy.

 

Yes but typically getting to the bullpen means you chased the SP out aka scored runs on him. Wanting to "get to the bullpen" is an indirect way of saying "lets score runs on the SP". What you are suggesting is that teams should want to score 0-1 runs in innings 1-7 so that the opposing manager leaves a tired SP for inning 8. I'd prefer to score more early as the opposing manager is more likely to leave struggling SP in, allowing you to score 3-4 runs before the bullpen is brought in versus the 8th where yes you might start roughing him up but his leash will be short and you might only get 1-2 runs before the fresh more effective arm is brought in.

[connorp]

I'd agree with you in a hypothetical case where the fifty starter is averaging 5-6 IP per start by actually throwing 5-6 IP every start. Often though the low totals are at least partially a result of too many sub-5 inning starts. Using the pen for 6 innings after your starter gets pulled is tough on a pen, at least as they're currently handled.

 

Yeah that's what it is. I highly doubt teams that are at the bottom of IP for their SP are inclined to have a lot of success without a super power O.

[o2cui2i]

Better statistics would probably be based on standard deviations of innings and runs per game. Quality start is such an arbitrary line.

 

QS is nothing more than a sad talking point for lame commentators to feed to stupid fans and a negotiating tool for agents to use, it means almost nothing in game.

[o2cui2i]

I'd agree with you in a hypothetical case where the fifty starter is averaging 5-6 IP per start by actually throwing 5-6 IP every start. Often though the low totals are at least partially a result of too many sub-5 inning starts. Using the pen for 6 innings after your starter gets pulled is tough on a pen, at least as they're currently handled.

 

when was the last time a team went with a 4 man rotation for a longer period of time? for some reason Baltimore seems to be a team that comes to mind...

 

Japanese pitchers on pitch once a week and most of their starters throw a hell of a lot of pitches.

 

I wonder if a team could get a 6 man rotation to work. only start once a week many weeks and throw 120 pitches in every start. if you could build up arm strength it would be interesting. starting every 5th day and the 100 pitch limit are two of the "old School" concepts that one wonders if they really apply in reality. I know Nolin Ryan says modern day pitchers are coddled too much and that 100 pitches in a game is nothing. it would be interesting to see a modern day team attempt either a 4 or a 6 man rotation.

[OtisNixonFan]

Long story short: Was on vacation for the last two weeks cruising around Cuba. Ended up in a dingy bar in Matanzas and started shooting bones with some locals. All of a sudden there is a commotion and the unmistakable Jose Contreras walks into the bar. Eventually he joins in on the game and sticks around for over an hour with a couple of his buddies. Super friendly and made an effort to speak in English to me(as my Spanish is barely passable). Even let me buy him a rum. Anyone who knows a anything about Cuban law can understand how rediculous of an idea this would of been 5 years ago.

 

Tl/dr: go to cuban dive bar, end up playing dominoes with Jose Contreras

[GD]

Tl/dr: go to cuban dive bar, end up playing dominoes with Jose Contreras

 

I have no clue what this has to do with quality starts but damn that's awesome.

[OtisNixonFan]

I thought I was posting this in the around baseball thread. Appologies, maybe a mod could move it?