Carlos Delgado- A Hall of Famer?

[letsgobjs]

With Delgado eligible to be inducted into the Hall of Fame next year, do any of you think he's a Hall of Famer?

[Anemic0ffense]

http://pinkie.ponychan.net/chan/files/src/138160377075.gif

 

...No

[TwistedLogic]

Without using reason, rationale or any form of statistics and based purely off of shameless, homer bias: yes - first ballot.

[letsgobjs]

Without using reason, rationale or any form of statistics and based purely off of shameless, homer bias: yes - first ballot.

 

That's exactly what I wanted to hear.

[havok24]

Very good career, but hall of famer? Not a chance.

[Anemic0ffense]

Why?

 

He only had a few seasons you could call "HOF worthy". Awful defender. Overall, a nice career, but not a chance he gets in.

[jays_fever]

Well jaque Jones did get a vote

[Dick_Pole]

Delgado is in the same category as McGriff, maybe a little lower, and the latter doesn't look very likely to be getting in.

[Key22]

Yeah he should stick around on the ballot for a few years 473 homers is a lot. It's too bad really - if he could have 2-3 more excellent years he'd probably have made it. Defense and running isn't a factor for their consideration of first base types so that won't hurt him at all. For First baseman they're going to look at his offense. His .900OPS should merit consideration.

 

He is 50th all time in RBI and 31st all time in Home Runs.

 

On another site Delgado was broken down as follows and seems to be a pretty fair analysis of his chances - he's actually better than I thought he was.

 

As I've said many times on this board, I do not agree at all with the "if X is in, then Y needs to be in" line of logic because if you took the worst player in the HOF and let in everyone better than him, there would be hundreds and hundreds of players in the Hall, if not thousands. So let's take a look and see where Delgado stands:

 

First, let's take a quick look at Delgado's numbers. His batting line is currently .280/.383/.547/.930 with 472 HRs and an OPS+ of 138. He has never won the MVP award, though he's had some nice showings in the voting for that award, finishing second in 2003, fourth in 2000, sixth in 2005, ninth in 2008, and he appeared on the ballot in three other years.

 

Now, let's compare him to the other players of his era:

 

Of players with at least 5,000 PA between 1990 and 2009 he stands 20th in OPS+. The three guys immediately above him are Todd Helton, Larry Walker, and Ken Griffey Jr. while the three guys below him are Brian Giles, David Ortiz, and Rafael Palmeiro. Among 1B with 5,000 PA in that time span, he is 7th, behind Albert Pujols, Mark McGwire, Jeff Bagwell, Jim Thome, Jason Giambi, and Todd Helton. He's eigth in that time span if you include Frank Thomas as a 1B instead of a DH.

 

There are currently eight first basemen who have been ELECTED to the Hall of Fame by the baseball writers, and that's what we're really talking about here. They are:

 

Lou Gehrig (179 OPS+), Jimmie Foxx (163), Hank Greenberg (158), Willie McCovey (147), Bill Terry (136), Eddie Murray (129), George Sisler (124), and Tony Perez (122). If you go based on OPS+, that would place Delgado 5th out of 9 elected 1B, which is pretty comfortably in the middle.

 

hat being said, there are many first basemen who are currently playing or who recently retired who are likely to make the HOF and who were better than Carlos Delgado, including Albert Pujols, Frank Thomas, Jeff Bagwell, Todd Helton, and perhaps Mark McGwire eventually. Assuming they all get in through the writers, that would put Delgado at 10th out of 14, meaning he'd be better than four out of the fourteen elected first basemen in that scenario.

 

So, basically I think he's borderline. He certainly wouldn't be the worst first baseman (or even the worst writer-elected first basman) in the HoF, but he definitely wouldn't be among the best. He's helped by the fact that his peak was very strong (154 OPS+ with a line of .295/.413/.585/.998 in the six year period between 1998 and 2003), including a monster 2000, when he had a line of .344/.470/.664/1.134 with 41 HRs.

 

He's hurt, in my view, by the fact that he's never really been that good of a defensive player. Also, when it comes to the reality of the situation (whether the writers are going to vote him in), the fact that he only was selected to two All-Star games will hurt him." http://forums.nyyfans.com/showthread.php/117452-Is-Carlos-Delgado-a-Hall-of-Famer

 

 

Where I disagree with the author is in the fact that so what if there are 10 guys in the era that are ALL outstanding - I don;t believe in the notion that you have to be in the best 1-2 during the time that you played - if you're the 8th best and you're better than 40 guys in the last 50 years who got in then so be it. In other words I don't believe in grading on the old bell curve system.

 

John goes to University and scores 95% - that's an A+ but on the bell curve John is stuck in a classroom with 10 Einsteins who get 100% - John fails the course because there needs to be an F and 95% was unfortunately the lowest mark in the class. Likewise - in a class full of Gumps the guy who scores 60% gets and A+ because everyone else did worse. No.

 

And he did this without Peds in a Ped era. In other words - unlike many of the cheaters who had better numbers - Delgado didn't cheat. That has to count for something I should think - if A-Roid gets in - something is wrong IMO.

[KingKat]

Delgado didn't cheat.

 

Look I like Delgado too but there's just no way you can make that assumption about him or really about anyone from his era.

[Angrioter]

Hall of Fame, no Hall of dinger

[eastcoastjaysfan]

It's easy to forget how good Delgado actually was.

 

Close, but no cigar though.

[NorthOf49]

Not that close. I'd vote for him though

[connorp]

Yeah 1b defense is pretty much the least important spot on the field, is it not?

 

I mean if someone provided GG defense thats obviously a plus..that said..Delgado's O numbers are just a little shy of spectacular in the era. I think he comes up short,

 

I also dont tjink its right to assume whos clean and who isnt. Bagwell is apparently also being kept out fof PED "rumors". To say Delgado or even Frank Thomas didnt take for anything 100% fact is a crock.

 

Also people will say FT was naturally big..but not all steroids, especially "athlete", ones are designed to make you bigger

[Olerud363]

Why?

 

According to BBREF WAR he's at about 45. Thomas is at 73, Bagwell 79. John Olerud 58, Mcgriff 53, Pujols 93.

 

It is basically era and defense that is killing him. He ends up behind many other first basemen, even ones like Olerud and Mcgriff who are not considered hall worthy.

[Olerud363]

Yeah 1b defense is pretty much the least important spot on the field, is it not?

 

Would be interesting to hear from someone with a good understanding of how the WAR system(s) rate 1b defense.

 

The guys who have won gold gloves and are "thought of" as good defenders (Bagwell, Olerud, Pujols) are not (or barely) even cracking zero on bbref (Olerud -2, Bagwell -7, Pujols 2). The bad guys (or DHs) are closing in on -20 (Delgado, Ortiz).

 

So I am guessing that it is calibrated somehow so that it is difficult to "contribute" defensively as a 1b, but it is easy to do damage.

 

If you are a bad defender (or left handed infielder) you go to 1b and if you are passable you atleast don't damage the team, if you are bad you can cause some damage.

 

If you are right handed and a good infield defender they put you somewhere else.

 

Also interesting that Ortiz is so low. How can you cause defensive damage as a dh?? System must punish those who can't take the field.

[wilko]

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-FSS1uk_Y87c/UMIcOeZW7II/AAAAAAAAFPo/kIwY9hMJYBU/s1600/Delgado-Bat-Flip.gif

[Sammy225]

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-FSS1uk_Y87c/UMIcOeZW7II/AAAAAAAAFPo/kIwY9hMJYBU/s1600/Delgado-Bat-Flip.gif

 

That was his 4th HR of that game was it not I remember that Bat flip from anywhere lol.

[Sammy225]

It was. He wouldn't ever typically flip the bat like that. I remember watching that on TV.

 

I do as well. That was the only time he really ever pimped a homerun (that I can remember). Very humble player.

[Angrioter]

Positional adjustment. Fangraphs uses a -12.5 run (-1.25 win) adjustment for 1B and -17.5 run adjustment for DH.

 

Bagwell 81 WinsAR, .244 ISO, 449 dingers, 202 SB 149 wRC+ -----> 30-30 twice

[Angrioter]

Positional adjustment. Fangraphs uses a -12.5 run (-1.25 win) adjustment for 1B and -17.5 run adjustment for DH.

 

per 162 games, no per Innings lol

[Boxcar]

With Delgado eligible to be inducted into the Hall of Fame next year, do any of you think he's a Hall of Famer?

 

I think he will linger on the ballot for a few years but he's a bit shy of being hall worthy imo.

[wilko]

It was. He wouldn't ever typically flip the bat like that. I remember watching that on TV.

 

Yup, that was a great night. His HR's were always no doubters.

[Sammy225]

I never understood why he was never traded in 04 though. Blue Jays could have got a pretty good haul for him you would think. Maybe they had delusions that he would stay a Jay I don't know.

[Olerud363]

You haven't heard of positional adjustment?

 

As a concept yes. What the formula is?? No. I'm not aware of the technical details of how they do it.

[Olerud363]

Positional adjustment. Fangraphs uses a -12.5 run (-1.25 win) adjustment for 1B and -17.5 run adjustment for DH.

 

Thanks. I actually didn't know this.

[Olerud363]

I never understood why he was never traded in 04 though. Blue Jays could have got a pretty good haul for him you would think. Maybe they had delusions that he would stay a Jay I don't know.

 

Full Count by Jeff Blair goes over this. Delgado wouldn't waive his no-trade clause because he was comfortable in Toronto, and because he was struggling with injuries. I guess didn't want to go to a new team and struggle. He said if he was healthy he would of accepted a trade.

 

Ricciardi claims he likes Delgado but they did not have permission from upper-management to fit him in the payroll for 2005. Ironically permission (in terms of a higher payroll) came later in that offseason, but it was to late. Ricciardi says if they got permission earlier they would of explored resigning Delgado.

[KingKat]

I never understood why he was never traded in 04 though. Blue Jays could have got a pretty good haul for him you would think. Maybe they had delusions that he would stay a Jay I don't know.

 

He had full no trade and told Ricciardi he would block any move as was his right. JPR was afraid he would accept arb so the Jays couldn't get compensation either. The part that sucks for J.P. is that it was a Gord Ash signing. His hands were completely tied. The only thing he could have done is try to re-sign him but he probably wasn't give enough payroll flexibility to do that either. It's a real shame because the club did end up opening the purse strings for the vastly inferior Vernon Wells later on.

[Sammy225]

He had full no trade and told Ricciardi he would block any move as was his right. JPR was afraid he would accept arb so the Jays couldn't get compensation either. The part that sucks for J.P. is that it was a Gord Ash signing. His hands were completely tied. The only thing he could have done is try to re-sign him but he probably wasn't give enough payroll flexibility to do that either. It's a real shame because the club did end up opening the purse strings for the vastly inferior Vernon Wells later on.

 

s***** deal to be in.

[Angrioter]

It makes more sense though, easier to compare players of different positions. Not hard to scroll down to find UZR.

 

With a small exception.

 

David Ortiz = -17,5 adjustment

JPA = +12,5 - JPA constant (-30) = -17,5 adjustment