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jaysfan2014 Dunedin Blue Jays

jaysfan2014

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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Worse for Boston, because of poor roster construction in the rotation and bullpen, Workman and De La Rosa have bus tickets to AAA Pawtucket coming despite their strong performance, because Doubront and his barely 90 MPH fastball and a Ricky Romeroesque Clay Buchholz are returning.

 

Both of them will be optioned unless Boston DFAs a reliever or trades one. Unfortunately, the Sox and a delusional John Farrell will not cut Chris Capuano or Edward Mujica. And I have a bad feeling they will likely trade De La Rosa or Workman, or other SP prospects in a desperation move to get a decent OF just to try to make the postseason (Ethier? Kemp? Somebody else?)

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Spanky__99
Spanky__99

Nah, the rumour according to Morisi, is they're trying to move Andrus. Yet, in this circumstance Profar or Odor make sense.

connorp New Hampshire Fisher Cats

connorp

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No he isnt. EE has a below average career babip. Nelson has a career .303 babip. Yet they still have about the same career batting average. Eddy is better in every facet of hitting. Just isn't as lucky Nelson Cruz. Especially this year when Cruz has a .315 babip and Eddy has a .250 babip. 23 points below his career babip.

 

This is the kind of thing casuals complain on when advanced stats are used in debates. Babip obviously can be a really good tool to determine luck when used properly but you cant just say everyone has the same mean of .300 and call it a day. When players have 4000 PA its time to stop talking about luck over a career. Now if it's one season and their babip is way less or more than their career avg, that's how it should be used.

 

Edwin alos finished last season with the same babip. Nelson Cruz hasn't had anything even remotely that low since 2006 (in a sss) not too long after first coming off. They work off a totally diff mean

connorp New Hampshire Fisher Cats

connorp

Old-Timey Member
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That said... give me Edwin being younger obviously and he's been great 3 years in a row. Cruz had a 147 WRC+ in 2010 so it's no totally out of nowhere but his health has always been an issue as well.
GD MVP

GD

Old-Timey Member
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It's almost like Connor owns Cruz or something

 

RoS has Cruz as a .292 BABIP and 127 wRC+

 

Edwin .265 BABIP and 147 wRC+

connorp New Hampshire Fisher Cats

connorp

Old-Timey Member
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It's almost like Connor owns Cruz or something

 

RoS has Cruz as a .292 BABIP and 127 wRC+

 

Edwin .265 BABIP and 147 wRC+

 

In my follow up I made it a point to say Edwin was better. What I said was that it's dumb to try and regress their numbers to the same mean (.300 babip)

I take no issue to the above numbers pre-season. They reinforce my point really

GD MVP

GD

Old-Timey Member
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In my follow up I made it a point to say Edwin was better. What I said was that it's dumb to try and regress their numbers to the same mean (.300 babip)

I take no issue to the above numbers pre-season. They reinforce my point really

 

Sure, but both numbers are due for regression

43211234 FCL Blue Jays

43211234

Verified Member
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There's no large regression I'd expect from Edwin's babip. That number is pretty much in line with the last two seasons, since his breakout.
connorp New Hampshire Fisher Cats

connorp

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There's no large regression I'd expect from Edwin's babip. That number is pretty much in line with the last two seasons, since his breakout.

 

Yeah Cruz has been steady with his babip over the years and .312 is nothing unusual. Edwin since 2010 (5 year span) has years with .235, .266, .246, and .247 with a good .292 in there

 

Cruz: .348, .288, .301, .295, .312

jaysfan2014 Dunedin Blue Jays

jaysfan2014

Old-Timey Member
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So, per your own words, Boston was in serious trouble because Doubront and Buchholz went down.

 

And now Doubront and Buchholz come back, and their in even worse trouble, apparently, because the guys who went down, causing the trouble in the first place, are back.

 

Hopefully Doubront and Buchholz don't get injured again ... the headline will read ... Your Boston Red Sox ... now with even more worserer trouble.

 

That's not what I said. I meant that Boston was worse off getting Doubront and Buchholz back.

 

De La Rosa and Workman had better numbers in every category than what Doubront and Buchholz have provided this year. Unfortunately, both De La Rosa and Workman will be rewarded with bus tickets to Pawtucket because Boston cannot send down Doubront or Buchholz due to them being out of options (Doubront), or not allowed to send down without permission (Buchholz, who has 5+ years of service time.)

jaysfan2014 Dunedin Blue Jays

jaysfan2014

Old-Timey Member
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They've made up 2 games on Toronto in the last 10 games played.

 

1.5 games actually. Had Minnesota's offense been at least competent last series, Boston could easily be further back in the standings. You don't usually win scoring only 5 runs in a series.

jaysfan2014 Dunedin Blue Jays

jaysfan2014

Old-Timey Member
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Who else is rooting for the O's right now to keep our 1.5 lead over the the Yankees?

 

How is this Yankees team even above .500? Their offense is really anemic. And Solarte's magic has disappeared.. now down to a .264 AVG. Outside of Gardner and Ellsbury, their line has been terrible.

 

Oh, and it's now 6-0 after a JJ Hardy double. This is going to be a demoralizing loss for the Yanks.. but will it affect them in the week ahead, where they have us and the Red Sox?

Anemic0ffense First Round Pick

Anemic0ffense

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How is this Yankees team even above .500? Their offense is really anemic. And Solarte's magic has disappeared.. now down to a .264 AVG. Outside of Gardner and Ellsbury, their line has been terrible.

 

Oh, and it's now 6-0 after a JJ Hardy double. This is going to be a demoralizing loss for the Yanks.. but will it affect them in the week ahead, where they have us and the Red Sox?

 

Tanaka is literally the only reason they are where they are right now. The lineup is their weakest since the early 90's. We have very favorable pitching matchups in this next series. Anything less than 2 of 3 and I think we're done for. No excuses. Get the job done after this embarrassing road trip.

admin MVP

admin

Site Manager
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Tanaka now has 15 quality starts in a row. Wonder what the record is?

11 of his 15 starts he gave up 2 runs or less. That's unbelievable.

Dwight gooden went 25 before giving up more. Ended up with 34 of 35 games QS.

Probably a couple similar seasons by pitchers.

TheHurl Toronto Blue Jays

TheHurl

Site Manager
Posted
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Tanaka now has 15 quality starts in a row. Wonder what the record is?

11 of his 15 starts he gave up 2 runs or less. That's unbelievable.

 

Bob Gibson 26 but over 2 seasons. He started 1968 with 22 straight though...broken off by an 11 inning 4 ER loss. And people wonder why quality starts is a bad stat.

TheHurl Toronto Blue Jays

TheHurl

Site Manager
Posted
Posted
Bob Gibson 26 but over 2 seasons. He started 1968 with 22 straight though...broken off by an 11 inning 4 ER loss. And people wonder why quality starts is a bad stat.

 

32 of 34 were quality starts in his MVP season. His two non-quality starts were the above mentioned 11 inning 4 ER loss the other was a 4 ER complete game. Somehow it comes out to a sub 10 fWAR season.

admin MVP

admin

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32 of 34 were quality starts in his MVP season. His two non-quality starts were the above mentioned 11 inning 4 ER loss the other was a 4 ER complete game. Somehow it comes out to a sub 10 fWAR season.

 

Yeah it's not the best stat, but I find it interesting if it's for a long record like Tanaka is doing.

I've always found it funny 6IP 3ER is a quality start, but that's a 4.5ERA.

If Happ went out and pitched 6 innings and gave up 3ER and had a 4.5ERA, we would be pretty damn happy, as bad as 4.5 sounds.

jaysfan2014 Dunedin Blue Jays

jaysfan2014

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Jays lose position players (although Bautista might be back tomorrow, as it was a precautionary departure from the game), Cardinals lose not one, but TWO pitchers in one day:

 

Jenifer LangoschVerified account ‏@LangoschMLB

 

Wacha and Garcia both going on DL with shoulder injuries. #stlcards

 

Wow. Cincy fans are probably cheering this. But this is a large loss for the Cardinals.

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