Blue Jays Cardinals Proposed Trade

[Randy The Robot]

Bautista Steamer projection: 144 wRC+

Adams Steamer projection: 120 wRC+

 

lol

 

Steamer also has him projected for 124 PA's.

[apoc10]

I think that if you take out Wong, it'd be much more even trade, but I was swinging for the fences for this trade. I think Martinez, Miller and Taveras is a vastly talented package that would be good for Toronto and would be. Like St. Louis says they have an abundance of starting pitching and right now their depth chart has Miller as their #5 and Martinez is in their bullpen. We immediately make their team's offense miles better, while barely impacting their starting lineup.

 

It does take away from their future, but it's a heck of a team for the next 3 years. It's not like we're asking for Wacha. And you can't just look at talent alone, because you have to look at needs. Fitting needs is sometimes more valuable than just measuring talent.

 

I think if you look at the overall picture, the Cardinals still have a crazy farm system and will become much better with the upcoming draft with 3 first round picks. They're own, competitive balance pick, beltran pick. They always draft well due to their scouting and I think they can deal from the depth of their farm to destroy Boston next year. Janssen did pitch against Boston year round. haha... just saying.

[Abomination]

Reyes = Miller + 1/2 Martinez + 1/4 wong

Bautista = Taveras +1/2 Martinez +1/4 Wong

Janssen = 1/2 Wong

and we throw in cash.

 

Maybe things change and they take out Martinez and put in another prospect, or maybe Jays add in more cash or a prospect for them. Jays have risk in that they are acquiring unproven MLB prospects, it's not like they're getting Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado here. While Cardinals have possible injury concerns, but that's a lot of players.

 

It's funny, because I've heard responses the Jays are giving up too much, while others say Cardinals are giving up too much. That means, I'm probably nearing somewhere in the middle.

 

I just can't see any one team giving up THAT kind of quality and volume of high end prospects. If the Jays wanted to though, maybe Reyes + Hutch + Santos + Delabar = Miller + Taveras if the Jays throw in 1/2 Reyes salary. Bautista + ? = Profar + Ogando (possibly). Edwin + Nolin = Walker + Franklin perhaps. Janssen + Cecil probably lands Castellanos. Dickey might get Cowart, who could presumably be flipped to fill 1st or catcher.

 

You could imagine a lineup of Lawrie, Profar, Franklin, 1b, dh, c, Castellanos, Gose, Taveras, and a rotation of Sanchez, Stroman, Miller, Ogando, Walker. It's never going to happen, but it's really nice to think about.

[Randy The Robot]

I think it's a bit far fetched, hence why I just threw it out there, but it's really about what the cardinals organization values and I've been on their message boards and people were willing to give up Miller, high level player and prospects for Tulo, but they were also weary of the length of his contract. Reyes contract is shorter and they both have injury concerns, but everyone admits that Reyes injury was a freak accident. Reyes is also a switch hitter and would be playing on grass in the national league, which he's familiar with. Like I said, look what James Shield brought back in a trade, I know he's a starter, but I think top elite players are tough to trade for in general and you have to pay to get what you want. I think young and cost controlled shortstop that is a superstar is impossible to find. I think they would prefer a proven shortstop, and under a solid contract. Given what Stephen Drew is going to pull in on the open market, Reyes salary won't look so bad. Like I said, the cardinals have $40million coming off the books and they can afford Reyes 16mill salary for 2014. It balances out given Bautista's cheap salary.

 

Wong is not a third basemen and plays second and is blocked by matt carpenter and the fact they give up on a former playoff MVP is something not likely. Selling on him on one bad year I doubt it. They'll probably keep Freese for another season. Their hole is at shortstop and right field. Matt Adams plays first and Allen Craig could probably play a corner field, but the defense is suspect and Bautista's killer arm in RF with instant power could easily replace Beltran. Adams is still young and could be bait for another trade, but neither are them are true right fielders. Bautista vs. Beltran is that Bautista is younger and going to be a cheaper contract, and letting beltran go still gets them a first round pick in an upcoming VERY DEEP DRAFT. Also, Bautista has the flexibility to play third which is quite advantageous for the cardinals if Freese does falter. It's hard to find that type of versatility in a player of Bautista calibre and it plays right into the Cardinals hands. Taveras is still unproven and might be good, but again, there's risk he could flame out. Remember James Shield got Wil Myers and Jake Odorri and prospects, while the Cardinals will get Bautista plus first round pick for letting Beltran go.

 

Wong also is completely unproven in MLB.

 

The Cardinals were looking for a proven closer hence the trade for john axford and adding someone cheap like Janssen who proved himself in the AL East is something that they would not mind. I don't think he's no use, but he does have some value as a proven closer. But he's part of the deal as more of a sweetner as the meat of the trade is Bautista and Reyes. If we included Delabar or Cecil who were all-stars last year could be something that could work as well and they are controllable for cheap, but that's offset by the fact they were not closers. But you could sell the trade as the Cardinals getting 3 all-stars, with two of them being perennial all-stars. Young relievers are great, but I they're looking to change a few of them into starters if possible as there's much more value in that.

 

Maybe the Jays need to throw in some money in this trade, or maybe the cardinals will alter the prospects in the trade.

 

But if tulo = Miller, Lynn, prospects, or Hardy = Miller and prospects,

then doing a weighted trade:

 

Reyes = Miller + 1/2 Martinez + 1/4 wong

Bautista = Taveras +1/2 Martinez +1/4 Wong

Janssen = 1/2 Wong

and we throw in cash.

 

Maybe things change and they take out Martinez and put in another prospect, or maybe Jays add in more cash or a prospect for them. Jays have risk in that they are acquiring unproven MLB prospects, it's not like they're getting Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado here. While Cardinals have possible injury concerns, but that's a lot of players.

 

It's funny, because I've heard responses the Jays are giving up too much, while others say Cardinals are giving up too much. That means, I'm probably nearing somewhere in the middle.

1. Cardinals MB should be ignored. 2. Reyes isn't half the player Tulo is, and he's certainly not a superstar. 3. That awful trade by the Royals is an outlier. 4. Ignoring that the Cardinals would never do that based of talent alone; they would then have no money left and be stuck with David Freese and Jon Jay as starters. Neither of which are starting quality players, especially on one of the best teams in baseball. 5. Delmon Young is a former playoff MVP. 6. They are pretty clearly trading Freese this offseason. 7. No no no, Craig will never be a good defensive player, but he's certainly capable of playing right. The holes for the Cards are short and center. 8. This trade superior unproven talent for inferior proven talent argument is tiring. Especially when this is the Cards organization. 9. Cards traded for Axford for bullpen depth last year. He's almost guaranteed to he non tendered. 10. Once again Cardinals already have a loaded bullpen, and if Rosenthal doesn't transition to the rotation; they have one of the best closers in baseball. 11. Hardy could never net in Miller; let alone Miller+. 12. No no, I can assure you; you're no where near the middle.

Edited November 17, 2013 by Randy The Robot

[Randy The Robot]

I think that if you take out Wong, it'd be much more even trade, but I was swinging for the fences for this trade. I think Martinez, Miller and Taveras is a vastly talented package that would be good for Toronto and would be. Like St. Louis says they have an abundance of starting pitching and right now their depth chart has Miller as their #5 and Martinez is in their bullpen. We immediately make their team's offense miles better, while barely impacting their starting lineup.

 

It does take away from their future, but it's a heck of a team for the next 3 years. It's not like we're asking for Wacha. And you can't just look at talent alone, because you have to look at needs. Fitting needs is sometimes more valuable than just measuring talent.

 

I think if you look at the overall picture, the Cardinals still have a crazy farm system and will become much better with the upcoming draft with 3 first round picks. They're own, competitive balance pick, beltran pick. They always draft well due to their scouting and I think they can deal from the depth of their farm to destroy Boston next year. Janssen did pitch against Boston year round. haha... just saying.

I skimmed through this post because it's completely off base and I already gave you the benefit of the doubt with the last one. But I saw "It's not like this is Wacha." And that argument is just ridiculous. There isn't a scout in the world that would take Wacha over Miller, Taveras or Martinez; talent wise. Three top young talents in baseball aren't getting traded for anyone; let alone the package you're offering.

[Randy The Robot]

The Axford trade just shows what Cardinals are willing to give up to get a closer. Maybe they do value relief a little bit more. Dotel and Rzep helped them win world Series.

Yes, they gave up a mediocre bullpen prospect. Once again, Axford is not a closer. And I don't see how their 2011 bullpen is relevant.

[Fearthedoc]

Factoring in control + salary; it would be a train wreck from St. Louis' perspective.

[apoc10]

2015 Roster =)

I think this highlights the youth and low payroll. I know that a hundred different things could happen. I look at the offseason threads from 2 years ago, and the projection for the team looks different than what we see now. Any young player could become the next Arencibia and completely regress. At least some of these players are less risk, have high floors and project very well like Taveras, Miller, Sanchez, Martinez, Lawrie.

 

60mill Guaranteed + Rasmus Ext. + Arb. Numbers (30mill?)

 

Lineup: Gose (25), Taveras(23), Encarnacion(32), Rasmus(29), Lawrie(25), Wong(25), AJ jimenez (25), DH, Izturis

Rotation: Dickey(Old), Miller(25), Martinez(24), Sanchez(23), Stroman (24), Hutchison (24), Drabek (27)

Depth: Buerhle (Old), Romero, Happ, Morrow?

Bullpen: Santos, Delabar, Cecil, Rogers, Perez, Loup, ...

 

Do everything we can, to sell high, and bring back youth.

[Randy The Robot]

2015 Roster =)

I think this highlights the youth and low payroll. I know that a hundred different things could happen. I look at the offseason threads from 2 years ago, and the projection for the team looks different than what we see now. Any young player could become the next Arencibia and completely regress. At least some of these players are less risk, have high floors and project very well like Taveras, Miller, Sanchez, Martinez, Lawrie.

 

60mill Guaranteed + Rasmus Ext. + Arb. Numbers (30mill?)

 

Lineup: Gose (25), Taveras(23), Encarnacion(32), Rasmus(29), Lawrie(25), Wong(25), AJ jimenez (25), DH, Izturis

Rotation: Dickey(Old), Miller(25), Martinez(24), Sanchez(23), Stroman (24), Hutchison (24), Drabek (27)

Depth: Buerhle (Old), Romero, Happ, Morrow?

Bullpen: Santos, Delabar, Cecil, Rogers, Perez, Loup, ...

 

Do everything we can, to sell high, and bring back youth.

Keep dreaming.

[apoc10]

What do you guys think Cardinals would give up for Reyes, Bautista and Janssen?

 

Miller, Martinez and Wong?

[Randy The Robot]

Sign Ellsbury and trade Kelly for Owings.

 

1. Carpenter 2. Ellsbury 3. Craig 4. Holliday 5. Adams 6. Molina 7. Owings 8. Wong

[apoc10]

1. Cardinals MB should be ignored. 2. Reyes isn't half the player Tulo is, and he's certainly not a superstar. 3. That awful trade by the Royals is an outlier. 4. Ignoring that the Cardinals would never do that based of talent alone; they would then have no money left and be stuck with David Freese and Jon Jay as starters. Neither of which are starting quality players, especially on one of the best teams in baseball. 5. Delmon Young is a former playoff MVP. 6. They are pretty clearly trading Freese this offseason. 7. No no no, Craig will never be a good defensive player, but he's certainly capable of playing right. The holes for the Cards are short and center. 8. This trade superior unproven talent for inferior proven talent argument is tiring. Especially when this is the Cards organization. 9. Cards traded for Axford for bullpen depth last year. He's almost guaranteed to he non tendered. 10. Once again Cardinals already have a loaded bullpen, and if Rosenthal doesn't transition to the rotation; they have one of the best closers in baseball. 11. Hardy could never net in Miller; let alone Miller+. 12. No no, I can assure you; you're no where near the middle.

 

I think Reyes and Tulo comparisons are somewhat close. A whole other argument could be made to compare the two, but let's not get into that. Bautista could play 3B and allow Allen Craig to play RF and having Bautista provides that flexibility like I said. CF could be something covered by trading Matt Adams if they want and roll the dice on Freese at 3rd. You don't just sell low on an arb player, players can revive their career like aaron hill. Inferior proven talent? didn't know having all-stars was so inferior. If it's so tiring, don't read this post and contribute elsewhere. This is an open discussion forum. the axford trade shows who they gave up, Michael Blieziek who performed very well in AA/AAA even in PCL. Still worth something.

 

And you're just posting random one-off comments without doing a true analysis. If you're so adamant, please provide a full spectrum analysis giving both sides of the equation with factual research, like I have tried. Yes, I gave more weighting to blue jays players and was hoping to get more off the cardinals, and I was dreaming for Taveras, but altering the trade parameters are possible. Jeez

[apoc10]

I skimmed through this post because it's completely off base and I already gave you the benefit of the doubt with the last one. But I saw "It's not like this is Wacha." And that argument is just ridiculous. There isn't a scout in the world that would take Wacha over Miller, Taveras or Martinez; talent wise. Three top young talents in baseball aren't getting traded for anyone; let alone the package you're offering.

 

they said Wacha is untouchable but are willing to trade Miller. So the cardinals must be dumb then.

[apoc10]

Yes, they gave up a mediocre bullpen prospect. Once again, Axford is not a closer. And I don't see how their 2011 bullpen is relevant.

 

2011 they admitted that those experienced relievers helped them win the world series. they were important parts of that bullpen. also, I don't think bliziek was a mediocre prospect, but may have been in their amazing system.

[apoc10]

Sign Ellsbury and trade Kelly for Owings.

 

1. Carpenter 2. Ellsbury 3. Craig 4. Holliday 5. Adams 6. Molina 7. Owings 8. Wong

 

Ellsbury doesn't provide the power they want, and they also lose a pick for the signing, and they probably looking at 25mill/year to get Ellsbury vs. Bautista at 14mill/year.

[TheHurl]

I really don't think the Cards are all that concerned about RF or RP. They want a SS and a Starter.

[admin]

Ellsbury doesn't provide the power they want, and they also lose a pick for the signing, and they probably looking at 25mill/year to get Ellsbury vs. Bautista at 14mill/year.

 

Jays were among top in the league in HR, that's the last thing they need.

Tanaka

Cano

A catcher

I don't care if we over pay for Cano, we have 2-3 years to win with this roster. Either go all in or blow it up right now.

EE, Bau, Reyes, Cano wouldn't hate playing here.

It's not the best way to go about things, but AA f***ed this team up so bad last offseason, it's the only option.

This team needs massive changes to compete next year, little moves like Garza won't cut it. Go all in, or blow it up, why build a team that just might squeeze into the playoffs.

I wouldn't even care if we blew this team up if AA doesn't make significant moves.

[apoc10]

I really don't think the Cards are all that concerned about RF or RP. They want a SS and a Starter.

 

Huh? They said they have too many MLB ready starters.

[apoc10]

Jays were among top in the league in HR, that's the last thing they need.

Tanaka

Cano

A catcher

I don't care if we over pay for Cano, we have 2-3 years to win with this roster. Either go all in or blow it up right now.

EE, Bau, Reyes, Cano wouldn't hate playing here.

It's not the best way to go about things, but AA f***ed this team up so bad last offseason, it's the only option.

This team needs massive changes to compete next year, little moves like Garza won't cut it. Go all in, or blow it up, why build a team that just might squeeze into the playoffs.

I wouldn't even care if we blew this team up if AA doesn't make significant moves.

 

Power bat option was about the cardinals, not the Jays. I do agree that the Jays need more players with OBP or hit for average, and not homeruns.

[apoc10]

The Cardinals didn't build the best organization in baseball by getting violated via trade, especially not by people like Alex Anthopoulos. IMO AA needs to add to Bautista to land Taveras and add to Reyes to land Miller.

 

2 years ago, the Cardinals traded a 5 tool outfielder at age 24, #3 prospect in BA, and was slumping that year, but had a spectacular previous season, but felt replaceable with a developing outfielder(Jon Jay). They packaged them with a few relievers to acquire a middle rotation starter and two experienced relievers. This was Rasmus and mediocre relievers for Edwin Jackson, Dotel, and Rzep. They did win the world series with all 3 players providing huge roles in the playoffs. I think Bautista or Reyes > Jackson, Dotel Rzep, so I do believe that Reyes and Bautista are each worth a top end prospect, and when you add Janssen in with their team friendly contracts, you could definitely add a third top end prospect. That would be Shelby Miller, Taveras, and Martinez or Wong.

 

It's tough to quantify winning the world series, but paying a little bit extra to get there is what teams know what they'll need to do. I don't begin to know what the Cardinals think about their own organization, but based on precedent trade, and the fact that acquiring top end players is becoming more and more expensive, I think this trade is reasonable.

 

Also, although Matheny said they are looking to keep Rosenthal as closer, the kid has 3 quality pitches and has much more value as a starter. They have Wainwright, Wacha, Lynn, Kelly and then Rosenthal not even talking about Garcia, Lyons. The ability for St. Louis to have a still formidable starting rotation and adding an all-star SS and all-star RF, and a proven closer. Maybe the Jays send over one of Santos/Cecil/Delabar instead of Janssen if that's what Cardinal wants.

[apoc10]

First, welcome to the board

 

Agree the salary implications are the main problem here for STL in this instance but I appreciate how well thought out it is

 

I thought about the salary implications but if they were willing to add Tulo (29) at like $130mill over 7 years, paying for Reyes(30) (86 over 4 years) and Bautista(32) (28mill over 2 yrs plus 14mill option), is still significantly less salary to take on. Tulo will be 36 at the end of his contract, while Reyes and Bautista will only by 34. Also, with Tulo's inflated Rockies stats, vs. Reyes who played a long time with NY Mets.

 

The cardinals have $45.426mill coming off books, though raises should add about 15mill, so $30mill in flexibility if they keep their similar $116Mill salary from 2013. So they would keep their payroll at pretty much the same level, while providing a big bump to their lineup. Reyes, Carp, Molina, Bautisa, Craig, Holliday, Freese, Jay, or Replace Freese with Adams, and put Bautista at 3rd. while rotation stays relatively the same with Wacha filling in for Miller and you have wainwright, Wacha, Kelly, lynn, Garcia/Rosenthal. That team looks scary and they got a lot stronger and can keep team from 2014 to 2016. They have Jason Motte (8mill) coming off books in 2014 and with tv revenue, could add some players on discounts just because of how competitive their team is. They still have 4 picks in first two rounds.

[Randy The Robot]

I think Reyes and Tulo comparisons are somewhat close. A whole other argument could be made to compare the two, but let's not get into that. Bautista could play 3B and allow Allen Craig to play RF and having Bautista provides that flexibility like I said. CF could be something covered by trading Matt Adams if they want and roll the dice on Freese at 3rd. You don't just sell low on an arb player, players can revive their career like aaron hill. Inferior proven talent? didn't know having all-stars was so inferior. If it's so tiring, don't read this post and contribute elsewhere. This is an open discussion forum. the axford trade shows who they gave up, Michael Blieziek who performed very well in AA/AAA even in PCL. Still worth something.

 

And you're just posting random one-off comments without doing a true analysis. If you're so adamant, please provide a full spectrum analysis giving both sides of the equation with factual research, like I have tried. Yes, I gave more weighting to blue jays players and was hoping to get more off the cardinals, and I was dreaming for Taveras, but altering the trade parameters are possible. Jeez

1. Tulo is younger; the best offensive and one of the best defensive short stops in baseball. Reyes is a dreadful defender and a sub .800 OPS hitter. They are worlds apart. 2. Bautista hasn't played third in what.....2 years? 3. So they should do a big favor for the Jays in this trade and hope they can find a trade partner for Adams, okay. 4. Freese is on the wrong side of 30, injury prone, can't play defense and can barely hit. 4. Oh okay, maybe the Jays can bring Carlos Delgado out of retirement and trade him to the Cubs for Kris Bryant and Javier Baez. After all he use to be a perennial all star and Bryant and Baez are unproven. 5. Michael "Blieziek" had good numbers in the minors? That changes everything. 6. No.

[Randy The Robot]

they said Wacha is untouchable but are willing to trade Miller. So the cardinals must be dumb then.

Maybe it has to do with more than talent?

[Randy The Robot]

2011 they admitted that those experienced relievers helped them win the world series. they were important parts of that bullpen. also, I don't think bliziek was a mediocre prospect, but may have been in their amazing system.

1. Cool. 2. Then you don't know much about Blazek. He has absolutely no control of his pitches; his stuff isn't very good either.

[Randy The Robot]

Ellsbury doesn't provide the power they want, and they also lose a pick for the signing, and they probably looking at 25mill/year to get Ellsbury vs. Bautista at 14mill/year.

1. Power that they want? You're completely making this up. 2. A second round pick, and a position they need covered plus 11 million(he isn't making that much but whatever) vs Miller+ and a position they already have covered.

[GD]

The Cardinals didn't build the best organization in baseball by getting violated via trade, especially not by people like Alex Anthopoulos.

 

Yeah, Mo would never trade a top young CF for a bunch of relievers to Alex Anthopoulos, right?

 

Steamer also has him projected for 124 PA's.

 

It's not a cumulative stat.

[GD]

Ellsbury doesn't provide the power they want

 

I don't like it when people say this. A win is a win is a win. You shouldn't look for specific player types to upgrade on one player, you should be looking to upgrade period. If you upgrade a singles hitter with a better singles hitter and not a slugger, great. It's an upgrade.

[G-Snarls]

EE, Bau, Reyes, Cano wouldn't hate playing here.

 

That's pretty much the meat of the Dominican national team batting order right there. Damn that's some hitting.

[saskjayfan]

1. Power that they want? You're completely making this up. 2. A second round pick, and a position they need covered plus 11 million(he isn't making that much but whatever) vs Miller+ and a position they already have covered.

 

All the Jays have to do is trade happ and jpa to free up some salary....sign Kawasaki to a minor league deal....have Kawasaki the most likely Japanese citizen on the planet negotiate a contract with Kuroda for a one year 18 mil and overpay for ruiz on a 2 year deal....2 years 20 mil...8 and 12..

 

reyes

rasmus

ee

bautista

lind

ruiz

melky

lawrie

izzy

 

gose, kawa/goins, thole, sign right handed bat

 

Kuroda

dickey

morrow

buehrle

McGowan/hutch/drabek/stroman/romero...

 

may as well have buehrle give his pal konerko a shout and have him some over for 1 year 2 mil....deal.

[BlueJaysGirl]

All the Jays have to do is trade happ and jpa to free up some salary....sign Kawasaki to a minor league deal....have Kawasaki the most likely Japanese citizen on the planet negotiate a contract with Kuroda for a one year 18 mil and overpay for ruiz on a 2 year deal....2 years 20 mil...8 and 12..

 

reyes

rasmus

ee

bautista

lind

ruiz

melky

lawrie

izzy

 

gose, kawa/goins, thole, sign right handed bat

 

Kuroda

dickey

morrow

buehrle

McGowan/hutch/drabek/stroman/romero...

 

may as well have buehrle give his pal konerko a shout and have him some over for 1 year 2 mil....deal.

 

Ruiz is a must. I do not want the Blue Jays to trade for a scrub catcher when they can overpay and get Ruiz for 2-3 years. If the Jays only signed on player this off season, I hope it's Ruiz. He'd make every pitcher better. Then we can see what we really have in pitchers like Jeffress and Rogers, whom I both think can be stellar if given a chance, and fostered with some good coaching and catching.

 

I also like Kuroda, and the Blue Jays have contacted him. He'd be a great guy to over pay for two seasons. We'd only lose a second round draft pick. Not too shabby.

 

If Stroman and Sanchez looks stellar in spring training, I hope they are considered for the rotation. Unlike most of you, I don't think we need an expensive (via trade or FA) 2nd tier starter or two to have a shot at playoffs. We have these young, effective arms on the farm. Give them a damn chance. And I don't care if there service clock starts early if they make the active roster out of ST. Nothing is more exciting than seeing some young arms from the system be effective in the majors. It gives the team a boost, shows that the club is developing players properly, and mostly, it's super cheap.

 

Kawasaki is going to Japan apparently, there is much interest there by many clubs. He's not coming back.

 

But I would take him in a haertbeat over Izturis, who I think is awful.