Blue Jays Cardinals Proposed Trade

[DuckDuckGose]

Easy.

 

Why does everyone have to speak with such hyperbole? Fernandez isn't even the best pitching prospect of the last 5 years (Strasburg was far better as a prospect).

 

Fernandez had a better year at 21 than Strasburg (even if it was only marginally better than his 2012 season) has been able to put up in his young career, doesn't have the same injury concerns, can touch 100mph, sits mid 90's with the FB. and has made some MLB hitters look foolish with his secondary stuff. I wouldn't call it hyperbole at all, Fernandez is the real deal. I don't really get the point though, Strasburg is a great talent in his own right, the fact that you are comparing the two is a huge compliment. Additionally, I didn't mean generational talent as in once in a generation player (like Bonds and Trout) I meant the type of talent (in the case CY Young calibre) that organizations tend to draft and develop once in a generation.

[DuckDuckGose]

Yep. People think every player who is good and young these days is Trout, and every player who struggles at a young age is a bust, because Trout didn't struggle. The truth is that only Trout is Trout, and that most players take a while to figure stuff out.

 

It's perfectly fine that Fernandez is just a very good young pitcher. And it's also fine that Profar is a very talented player who showed promise in 2013.

 

Settle down. No one compared Fernandez to Trout.

[Nox]

There's about a 40% chance he busts altogether and maybe a 10-15% chance he's a franchise player. .

 

I think that's way high.

[Dr. Dinger]

Which one?

 

It depends on how we define bust. In Profar's case, I'd say ending up as a 2nd division talent would qualify as busting.

[Dr. Dinger]

I quoted a bad % there. I had read an article that put the bust rate of top hitting prospects at 40%, but it's more like 10% for Top 10 guys. Although by this definition, a bust means an org guy.

[Nox]

Fernandez had a better year at 21 than Strasburg (even if it was only marginally better than his 2012 season) has been able to put up in his young career, doesn't have the same injury concerns, can touch 100mph, sits mid 90's with the FB. and has made some MLB hitters look foolish with his secondary stuff. I wouldn't call it hyperbole at all, Fernandez is the real deal. I don't really get the point though, Strasburg is a great talent in his own right, the fact that you are comparing the two is a huge compliment.

 

Did Fernandez have a better age 21 year than Strasburg in terms of building a future projection off of? I think that's highly debatable. Strasburg at 21 had an all time great college season. 195 Ks, 19 BBs in 108 innings. That's as absurd as any statline you'll see. He was basically the best pitching prospect ever.

 

If Fernandez "touches 100 and sits mid 90s", 2010 Strasburg touched 103 and sat upper 90s. Fernandez's stuff is great obviously but Strasburg pre-injury was probably the best we've ever seen from a starting pitcher.

 

Additionally, I didn't mean generational talent as in once in a generation player (like Bonds and Trout) I meant the type of talent (in the case CY Young calibre) that organizations tend to draft and develop once in a generation.

 

That's not how that term is commonly applied.

[Nox]

Which one?

 

It depends on how we define bust. In Profar's case, I'd say ending up as a 2nd division talent would qualify as busting.

 

Oh I see. Then 40% isn't "way" high.

[DuckDuckGose]

Did Fernandez have a better age 21 year than Strasburg in terms of building a future projection off of? I think that's highly debatable. Strasburg at 21 had an all time great college season. 195 Ks, 19 BBs in 108 innings

 

Historically great college season at 21 or dominant rookie MLB season in which you finish 3rd in Cy Young voting? IMO you take the MLB season 10/10 to,es, especially given Strasburg's injury concerns even at that point in his career. So, yes, I really don't think it's debatable; Fernandez @ 21yo > Strasburg @ 21yo.

 

That's as absurd as any statline you'll see. He was basically the best pitching prospect ever.

 

Perhaps the highest regarded college senior ever drafted. I don't think that equates to vest pitching prospect ever though.

 

If Fernandez "touches 100 and sits mid 90s", 2010 Strasburg touched 103 and sat upper 90s. Fernandez's stuff is great obviously but Strasburg pre-injury was probably the best we've ever seen from a starting pitcher.

 

Except the injury was highly predictable and the stuff could not be maintained. (some obvious hindsight in that point though)

 

That's not how that term is commonly applied.

 

It's an arbitrary term that is used to describe a range of results and talent levels. I apologize if I wasn't clear enough in my definition but, IMO I've used it within the scope of it's common usage.

Edited November 18, 2013 by DuckDuckGose
fixed quotations

[DuckDuckGose]

Yep that comparison was all mine. My point was just that it's a special time in baseball (with Trout/Harper) and that's led to some extra hyperbole. Your original post wasn't that inflammatory, I was more referring to the baseball community at large.

 

Ya, we've been spoiled lately. Definitely a great time to be a fan of the game.

[Nox]

Historically great college season at 21 or dominant rookie MLB season in which you finish 3rd in Cy Young voting? IMO you take the MLB season 10/10 to,es, especially given Strasburg's injury concerns even at that point in his career. So, yes, I really don't think it's debatable; Fernandez @ 21yo > Strasburg @ 21yo.

 

Oh please. It's absolutely debatable. It would be one thing if he was relying on a trick pitch, awful HS competition or something like that but he was doing it with the best pure stuff in all of baseball that season.

 

He had 3 pitches graded at 7 or above with an ideal pitcher's body and all the results you could possible want. Our retrospective best guess at his true talent level in 2010 is absolutely in the same conversation as Fernandez's. To say that Fernandez is automatically better bc he finished 3rd in Cy Young voting is lazy.

 

Perhaps the highest regarded college senior ever drafted. I don't think that equates to vest pitching prospect ever though.

 

Who was a better pitching prospect?

 

 

 

Except the injury was highly predictable and the stuff could not be maintained. (some obvious hindsight in that point though)

 

You're both overestimating how easy it was to predict an injury for Strasburg while underestimating the chances of Fernandez suffering a major injury in the next 3 years.

 

IMO I've used it within the scope of it's common usage.

 

I have literally never heard it used the way you did previously. It was not within the realm of common usage.

[apoc10]

I love this how fangraphs did another trade value classification.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2013-trade-value-35-31/

 

Shelby Miller and Jose are very close to each other.

[DuckDuckGose]

Oh please. It's absolutely debatable. It would be one thing if he was relying on a trick pitch, awful HS competition or something like that but he was doing it with the best pure stuff in all of baseball that season.

 

It was definitely elite stuff, I don't know if it was hands down better than guys like Verlander were throwing at the MLB level.

 

He had 3 pitches graded at 7 or above with an ideal pitcher's body and all the results you could possible want. Our retrospective best guess at his true talent level in 2010 is absolutely in the same conversation as Fernandez's. To say that Fernandez is automatically better bc he finished 3rd in Cy Young voting is lazy.

 

I'm just saying I'd take the guy doing it at the MLB level without the red flags over the college senior. However, this part is highly debatable. If ypu are talking pure stuff/upside Strasburg at 21 wins.

 

Who was a better pitching prospect?

 

I think Fernandez because there is less risk and he still has incredible stuff with immense upside.

 

 

You're both overestimating how easy it was to predict an injury for Strasburg while underestimating the chances of Fernandez suffering a major injury in the next 3 years.

 

Fernandez is going to get hurt. It's more of a question of when he misses significant time, not if.

 

I have literally never heard it used the way you did previously. It was not within the realm of common usage.

 

I think he is going to be a perennial top 10 Cy finisher. How is that not a generational talent? I think you are restricting the term to the Trout's and Bond's of the world. I guess I;m far more liberal with the term.

[apoc10]

Was done in July though.

 

Yup. I know, but interesting to see those types of comparisons.

[Nox]

 

I think Fernandez because there is less risk and he still has incredible stuff with immense upside.

 

 

 

 

Fernandez is going to get hurt. It's more of a question of when he misses significant time, not if.

 

 

I don't really understand how you can say both of these things. If Fernandez is going to get hurt, how does that make him less risky?

[DuckDuckGose]

I don't really understand how you can say both of these things. If Fernandez is going to get hurt, how does that make him less risky?

 

Every pitcher gets hurt. Not every pitcher is on the Kerry Wood trajectory.

[connorp]

Probably you would grade JF's MLB rookie year over a college pitchers..albeit one of best college seasons ever..

 

But stuff wise, SS was in class by himself. I never watched him pitch in college but I can remember watching his first MLB game (and after that as well) and his stuff was just cartoonish. You guys are too young to get the reference but it's like RBI Baseball for regular Nintendo where you throw a pitch and make it drop down to dirt right when it gets to the plate. In that way..no doubt SS>JF

[Nox]

Every pitcher gets hurt. Not every pitcher is on the Kerry Wood trajectory.

 

And how do we know that Fernandez isn't the one on the Kerry Wood trajectory?

[Nox]

Probably you would grade JF's MLB rookie year over a college pitchers..albeit one of best college seasons ever..

 

But stuff wise, SS was in class by himself. I never watched him pitch in college but I can remember watching his first MLB game (and after that as well) and his stuff was just cartoonish. You guys are too young to get the reference but it's like RBI Baseball for regular Nintendo where you throw a pitch and make it drop down to dirt right when it gets to the plate. In that way..no doubt SS>JF

 

Exactly. If we're talking only numbers, sure, give the nod to Fernandez. But the stuff and results in the MLB probably swing it in Strasburg's favor.

[apoc10]

My god, the prince fielder trade frees up money so they can resign max scherzer. Everyone paying a premium for young pitching makes me only feel we need to get something done to acquire young pitching. We'll never be able to acquire high quality pitching via free agency. Item number two, who would've expected a prince fielder trade, which only truly means that anyone is tradeable.

[apoc10]

Nice bumpity bump bump?!

 

haha.... well also articles like only gets the brain churning.

 

 

http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/news/article/stl/cardinals-inbox-would-st-louis-trade-for-troy-tulowitzki?ymd=20131118&content_id=64009058&vkey=news_stl

[apoc10]

I'm wondering if AA is looking at Matt Kemp for a possible three way trade. Here's another hair brained scheme. You have the dodgers who have Matt Kemp and are looking to move him and just signed Guerreo for their SS position. They have a hole at 3B and 2B, so they could move Hanley to 3B or Guerro to 2B, so they could use either a 3B, 2B, or SS.

 

The Jays have Bautista and Reyes who could fit either of those positions and could send maybe Matt Kemp to St. Louis with some salary like the Prince Fielder trade. Dodgers could take on either Bautista at third or Reyes at short, and we could obtain Miller. I know Matt Kemp is owed a lot of money, but is younger at 29 and if we send Bautista, Dodgers could send over 30 million to St. Louis, or if we send Reyes to Dodgers, we could throw in 15mill and Dodgers throw in 15 mill to St. Louis. We could also send JA Happ in the trade to the dodgers as we know they are looking for rotation depth. We could also include Janssen to st. Louis, and we could get Kolten wong in return.

 

St. Louis gets Kemp who's 29, but owed 127mill over 6 years, but could be offset by 30-40 million cash and Casey Janssen.

Dodgers get Bautista with friendly contract and can fill third base and JA Happ.

Jays get Miller and Kolten Wong.

[DuckDuckGose]

I love that game, I still play the original arcade game from time to time.

 

I loved RBI baseball as well. This reminds me of a Ken Griffey JR remake someone did with modern rosters for a SNES emulator. If anyone is interested the link is here;

 

http://np.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/1p54cn/ken_griffey_jr_baseball_20th_anniversary_rom_snes/

 

Seems up your alley though Spanky

[DuckDuckGose]

I'm wondering if AA is looking at Matt Kemp for a possible three way trade. Here's another hair brained scheme. You have the dodgers who have Matt Kemp and are looking to move him and just signed Guerreo for their SS position. They have a hole at 3B and 2B, so they could move Hanley to 3B or Guerro to 2B, so they could use either a 3B, 2B, or SS.

 

The Jays have Bautista and Reyes who could fit either of those positions and could send maybe Matt Kemp to St. Louis with some salary like the Prince Fielder trade. Dodgers could take on either Bautista at third or Reyes at short, and we could obtain Miller. I know Matt Kemp is owed a lot of money, but is younger at 29 and if we send Bautista, Dodgers could send over 30 million to St. Louis, or if we send Reyes to Dodgers, we could throw in 15mill and Dodgers throw in 15 mill to St. Louis. We could also send JA Happ in the trade to the dodgers as we know they are looking for rotation depth. We could also include Janssen to st. Louis, and we could get Kolten wong in return.

 

St. Louis gets Kemp who's 29, but owed 127mill over 6 years, but could be offset by 30-40 million cash and Casey Janssen.

Dodgers get Bautista with friendly contract and can fill third base and JA Happ.

Jays get Miller and Kolten Wong.

 

I'd move Bautista for Kemp, if they sent Kershaw along as well. Kemp is Vernon Wells lite with huge injury concerns and a bigger contract.

[connorp]

I loved RBI baseball as well. This reminds me of a Ken Griffey JR remake someone did with modern rosters for a SNES emulator. If anyone is interested the link is here;

 

http://np.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/1p54cn/ken_griffey_jr_baseball_20th_anniversary_rom_snes/

 

Seems up your alley though Spanky

 

I jsut bought a SNES a couple months ago and Griffey Jr baseball was my first buy. Remembered loving that game