Stoeten the good (Bautista article)

[Olerud363]

http://blogs.thescore.com/djf/2013/10/02/questions-about-jose-bautistas-leadership/#more-19348

 

I know, I know, I'm going on and on about Stoeten's articles. But he does do a good job of bringing up the issues of the day... and he sometimes has a good point...

 

So I am a pathetic insufferable sourpuss. Spending my life reading Stoeten's blog and then complaining about it.

 

Here he talks about Bautista. And he is right. It would be ridiculous to sell Bautista low. So unless you believe he is just going to crash further, Bautista is exactly the kind of guy you want to build around now. The time to trade him would of been 2 years ago.

 

You gotta think he is under valued right now (2 injury prone seasons) and the best hope for Blue Jay near term victory involves Bautista playing 150 games and getting near 40 homers and 100 walks...

 

What do you guys think?? Trade Bautista?? Could we get value trading a player while labeled injury prone and bad-attitude??

[G-Snarls]

I have no interest in trading Bautista this off season. I'm very curious what you could get for him but I'd only do it if you got a killer package including a solid starter and good prospects, and then again only if you had a free agent deal in place for a quality OF to replace him. Otherwise why bother, our OF would be horrendous. I still think he has a couple of 40 HR years left in him and I'd like them to be here.

[G-Snarls]

A year ago I think you could have gotten a starter and 2 really good prospects for him. Right now after TWO injury shortened seasons, I don't think you can anymore.

[Dr. Dinger]

It's "would have" not "would of."

 

You are obsessed with an inconsequential blog. Go read something else for awhile.

[HERPDERP]

Does Stoetes still think the '13 Jays are still a good team? I stopped following him mid-way through the season after he kept saying this team had a chance. I couldn't take it anymore after he kept going "I told you" during our huge winning streak.

 

To me he's on the same level as Wilner. Now that he's employed by Rogers you can tell he's kept under wraps.

[HERPDERP]

No, but he thinks the 2014 team will be a good team simply because the Red Sox improved from '12 to '13. Basically, everything went wrong for the Blue Jays this year... so next year everything has to go right (i.e., the gambler's fallacy).

 

Unless we get two 15-game winners we're not gonna go anywhere next year.

 

Dickey IMO is no longer an ace but a suitable no.3 Buehrle will be Buehrle. That leaves 3 rotation spots and I will not gamble on Rogers, Redmond or even Drabek.

 

Hutchison and Nolin are guys that can step in but they are inexperienced. I don't know what plan they have for Stroman.

[Angrioter]

Unless we get two 15-game winners we're not gonna go anywhere next year.

 

Dickey IMO is no longer an ace but a suitable no.3 Buehrle will be Buehrle. That leaves 3 rotation spots and I will not gamble on Rogers, Redmond or even Drabek.

 

Hutchison and Nolin are guys that can step in but they are inexperienced. I don't know what plan they have for Stroman.

 

Are you serious?

 

2012 - Cliff Lee 6 W, 5WAR

2013 - Harvey 9 W, 6WAR

2013 - Holland 10 W, 5WAR

 

The pitchers don't win games, teams win games.

[G-Snarls]

Hoping he meant guys capable of winning 15 games

[G-Snarls]

I have pet peeves at both extremes:

 

A) Baseball broadcasters, writers and forum posters who think W-L records are the best measure of a pitcher's performance

 

Baseball broadcasters, writers and forum posters who think a pitchers' W-L record has nothing whatsoever to do with their performance

 

Obviously, neither is true

 

(N.B.: I am not suggesting that any posters in this thread believe A or B. Just felt like pointing it out)

[HERPDERP]

Hoping he meant guys capable of winning 15 games

 

That's exactly what I meant, I should have said No.2 starters instead

[G-Snarls]

That's exactly what I meant, I should have said No.2 starters instead

 

I figured

 

We're being picky

Edited October 2, 2013 by G-Snarls

[GD]

Go in the off topic section and create a thread for yourself to bitch about Stoeten please.

[Olerud363]

This post was complimentary to Stoeten. He brought up some good points about Bautista. Apparently Jerry Howarth and Blair had some negative thoughts on Bautista and his attitude. Ussually someone here picks up on these tidbits and starts a thread. No one did so I started a thread... The original info was from Stoeten so I gave him credit...

 

Given how much I've been complaining about Stoeten... it's bit ironic that I read his blog so much. I think you missed the point of the thread. It's about Bautista and comments on Bautista from Howarth and Blair. Since I agreed with Stoeten on this issue (and since I didn't even know about until he brought it up) I linked him... not sure where the problem is here. Maybe you meant this for the other thread?? That one is definately about bitching about Stoeten.

[KingKat]

Now that he's employed by Rogers you can tell he's kept under wraps.

 

For the millionth freakin' time... The Score (televison network) was purchased by Rogers hence the rebranded name (Sportsnet 360). The Score (website) that was previously associated with the television channel was not purchased by Rogers hence it not being rebranded. I do agree that Stoeten is a lot like Wilner but his recent posts have been for the most part excellent.

[Howard Roark]

Given how much I've been complaining about Stoeten... it's bit ironic that I read his blog so much.

 

Yeah......................yeah it is.

 

Stop being such a fag.

[GeorgiaPeach]

http://blogs.thescore.com/djf/2013/10/02/questions-about-jose-bautistas-leadership/#more-19348

.....Here he talks about Bautista. And he is right. It would be ridiculous to sell Bautista low. So unless you believe he is just going to crash further, Bautista is exactly the kind of guy you want to build around now. The time to trade him would of been 2 years ago.

 

You gotta think he is under valued right now (2 injury prone seasons) and the best hope for Blue Jay near term victory involves Bautista playing 150 games and getting near 40 homers and 100 walks...

 

What do you guys think?? Trade Bautista?? Could we get value trading a player while labeled injury prone and bad-attitude??

 

 

 

As Branch Rickey said "It is better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late."

[Nox]

The whole concept of "selling low" is pretty stupid when it comes to baseball players.

 

A player's projected output is their projected output.

[Nox]

Yep.

 

Possible exception being Yunel Escobar-type situations. We gave away a 4 WAR player on a dirt-cheap contract because of public pressure.

 

Indeed.

[Howard Roark]

You guys should meet tomorrow at Yonge and Bloor. At midnight.

 

I'm already there, but nobody passing by feels like a scrap tonight, apparently. ='|

 

And I'd like to add my voice to the dingers person regarding the "should of" cancer. You see that s*** everywhere nowadays on the innernette, it's ridiculous. If you're over the age of 20 and actually think the correct term is "should of" instead of "should have", please kill yourself immediately in the most unpleasant way possible.

[Nox]

And I'd like to add my voice to the dingers person regarding the "should of" cancer. You see that s*** everywhere nowadays on the innernette, it's ridiculous. If you're over the age of 20 and actually think the correct term is "should of" instead of "should have", please kill yourself immediately in the most unpleasant way possible.

 

co-signed

[Olerud363]

The whole concept of "selling low" is pretty stupid when it comes to baseball players.

 

A player's projected output is their projected output.

 

Assuming your projection models are good and the other guys projection models are equally good and there is no information you know that he doesn't and the other guy trusts that there is no information that you know that he doesn't. So assuming there is a fair open market and there is no psychology involved then yes you are correct and we can replace gms with trading programs.

[Olerud363]

If a player can become undervalued for reason of homophobic slur then they can become undervalued for other reasons. We have the same small group participating in the market and if they are prone to undervaluing because of homophobic slur they could reasonably be prone to undervaluing for other reasons.

[G-Snarls]

If a player can become undervalued for reason of homophobic slur then they can become undervalued for other reasons. We have the same small group participating in the market and if they are prone to undervaluing because of homophobic slur they could reasonably be prone to undervaluing for other reasons.

 

And with Yunel it's been more than that. Atlanta sold low on him too because of laziness, Jays for this episode. That's a huge red flag for future teams and those reputations can really stick with you.

 

But he finally seems to have maybe smartened up and playing harder in Tampa. Too bad for us.

[Olerud363]

According to Nox there is no such thing as selling low on baseball players.

 

Obviously it's not black and white. If Atlanta sold low on Escobar for laziness then it opens the door for players being sold low for all kinds of reasons.

[G-Snarls]

And predicting it is very much like predicting the stock market, though in sports I guess you can (usually) bank on at least mild age related decline. But who goes from good year to bad or vice versa any given year? Anyone's guess.

[Olerud363]

He could sink lower. It's not random though. Not every player has a 50% chance of being better/worse. If a player has a 75% chance of being better next year, but the market is valuing him at previous years performance (or even lower because of attitude or something) then that player is being sold low.

[Olerud363]

It's not a matter of better/worse performance, it's whether the player's trade value increases/decreases.

 

Bautista's present value isn't based solely off his 2013 performance. It's based on his entire profile (i.e. everything), and any team evaluating him will look at his entire profile. If the Jays were confident that he would bounce back based on his history and still-good skills, than most other teams would be confident in him too.

 

The Jays have more information on Bautista then other teams. If every team got access to Bautista and could run him through tests you would be correct.

 

If the Jays are confident Bautista will bounce back and be healthy, in order to get value, they need to convince the other team he is healthy. If the Angels are convinced Pujols is healthy, are you automatically convinced??

[kcjaysfan]

But who goes from good year to bad or vice versa any given year?

 

Alex Rios.

[G-Snarls]

Alex Rios.

 

Hahaha. Good one.