DJF: What To Make Of Yan Gomes’ Success

[KingKat]

After reaching his peak level of antagonism, Stoeten seems to have sobered up (perhaps literally) and has been killing it with his recent comment. His lates piece is ostensibly about Yan Gomes but that's really just a jumping point to talk about the relationship between Alex in his advisor. I posted the nuts and bolts of the article below but for the full read click here: http://blogs.thescore.com/djf/2013/09/30/what-to-make-of-yan-gomes-success/

 

Fans sometimes tend to lump all of last winter’s moves into a single solid mass, when the reality is that they happened in a particular sequence. This is important to keep in mind in the case of Gomes, as he was dealt ondealt on November 3rd. At that moment, before Miami and Dickey deals, the Jays had Arencibia and Jeff Mathis on the big league roster, Bobby Wilson on the 40-man, Travis d’Arnaud slated for everyday at-bats in Buffalo, and A.J. Jimenez recovering from Tommy John and set to return to New Hampshire.

It’s easy to kill them for it now, but that situation didn’t present a lot of opportunity for Gomes to get the reps behind the plate that he needed. That’s part of the reason he played more often last year at first base (with a healthy dose of games at third, DH and in the outfield mixed in), and why, as the Cleveland Plain Dealernotes, he was headed for Triple-A Columbus when the season began.

That, however, is not close to the most important part of the article. For me, here’s the money quote:

Those in the organization who know Gomes best – notably, bullpen coach Kevin Cash – figured the ability was there, it was just a matter of when.

Or maybe it’s this:

“When Yan’s name came up in trade talks, the question was: ‘Could he catch every day in the major leagues?’’’ Cash said. “I said that, based on what I’d seen, it definitely appeared that way.’ He had everything you wanted in a catcher.’’

Kevin Cash, you may recall, spent last year as a Jays advance scout.

Nobody in their right mind would have believed that Gomes would be able to produce the kind of wholly unsustainable rate stats we’ve seen from him so far– a .293/.346/.483 line driven by a probably-high BABIP (though, it should be noted, he fairly consistently produced high BABIPs in the minors) from a guy who walks less than Melky Cabrera– but Cash’s comments make clear that it’s not like nobody in the organization though that he could be an everyday catcher.

It’s just– and this is where my mind often starts wandering, especially in the wake of the since-recanted rumour of a turf war among guys in the front office who actually have the GM’s ear, and the loss of a number of scouts– who is the GM listening to? And, more to the point, are there maybe so many competing voices that the GM can reasonably justify pretty much anything?

Though we’re told that Tony LaCava and Dana Brown are “two of the few the GM listens to” in the since-excised quote from the Toronto Sun, the list of scouts in the Jays’ front office directory runs 70 names deep. Many of those are amateur scouts or guys with regional specialties, but among them are guys like pro scouting director Perry Minasian, longtime scout Sal Butera, and former full-fledged GMs Jim Beattie, Chuck Lamar, and Dan Evans– voices that you’d at least guess must carry some weight.

And, of course, there is also their analytics guys, like Jay Sartori (who, interestingly, just left the club for Apple, and was profiled in the Toronto Star prior to the 2011 season), and Joe Sheehan.

No, not that Joe Sheehan– the one you’re thinking of went to USC, while the Jays’ guy’s Linkedin profileshows he went to Oberlin, and from 2008 to 2010 worked for the Pittsburgh Pirates. That means, interestingly, that he worked in the analytics department run by Dan Fox, who was fascinatingly profiled by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review last week, where we were told that “his influence as an analyst has reached a peak this season.”

I’m not sure that’s the case with the Jays’ analytics guys– AA’s frequent quoting of the very rudimentary OPS in interviews (which I keep telling myself is maybe just his way of appearing to have his foot in both the old and new schools), and the club’s move away from defensive shifts this year suggests as much– but that would such a ridiculous shame that I kind of don’t even really want to think about it.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

The simple fact is that he traded young, controllable catching depth for a not-so-young player (who had a horrible track record) that we did not need. We had all sorts of fringe starter/pen types in the system ready to compete. Gomes showed the ability to effectively play multiple positions for league minimum.

 

It was a stupid trade regardless of when the move was made in the grand scheme of things. I guess one of Alex's "MLB scouts" must've saw something in Rogers that nobody else saw.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Gomes on pace for almost 7 WAR over a full season.

 

Where is Lee_Marvin when you need him

[GD]

Gomes on pace for almost 7 WAR over a full season.

 

Where is Lee_Marvin when you need him

 

6.9 fWAR/600 PA. Utter madness.

[KingKat]

6.9 fWAR/600 PA. Utter madness.

 

No one saw his offensive breakthrough coming and becaue he was hardly used behind the plate, we didn't really get much of a feel for his abilities as a catcher. I remember getting my first good look at him behind the plate during Brazil's WBC qualification. I couldn't believe how quiet he was behind the plate, great target, minimal movement. I was surprised because I had no idea he was a good catcher and even then I didn't feel comfortable enough in my ablility to eye test catchers to trust that I wasn't seeing something that wasn't there.

[KingKat]

I feel like Stoeten (and others) are just now realizing what a lot of people here were told last season about the FO's use (or lack thereof) of analytics.

 

Nah.. the realization has been dawning for awhile and it's been very obvious on his podcasts and somewhat obvious between the lines of his post. He just pushed back a lot whenever it came from someone else. He would just treat everyone like a mouth-breathing reactionary even thought deep down he basically agreed with them. You can see in this article that he's still hedging a lot. He can see the writing on the wall but it's always 1+1 maybe equals 2 with him. To some extent, it's to his credit that he doesn't want to slam the door definitively on AA and wants to keep an open mind and not be too definitive in his judgment. At least he finally understands that negative doesn't equal reactionary and he's not pushing back and insulting his readership like he used to.

[Captain Adama]

I never had a good opinion on Gomes, so I can't say I saw anything of him before. But if AA doesn't listen to most of guys he hires it's pretty damn worrisome. Although unfortunately not totally surprising.

[Frag]

There's also this article

 

Casualties of keeping JPA:

 

1. Mike Napoli

2. Yan Gomes? To be fair, nobody saw the season he had coming, but f*** does it suck

 

I'm probably reading too much into this, but JP really seems to have caused more harm to this organization than his WAR will show. His problematic attitude is one issue, but the fact that he's so bad offensively and barely adequate defensively makes me really hate how this organization valued him over the years. Really frustrating year all-around.

[Captain Adama]

There's also this article

 

Casualties of keeping JPA:

 

1. Mike Napoli

2. Yan Gomes? To be fair, nobody saw the season he had coming, but f*** does it suck

 

I'm probably reading too much into this, but JP really seems to have caused more harm to this organization than his WAR will show. His problematic attitude is one issue, but the fact that he's so bad offensively and barely adequate defensively makes me really hate how this organization valued him over the years. Really frustrating year all-around.

 

The 2nd one I'd have to half-blame on the front office. They should've known better.

[HERPDERP]

Comon guys, don't pretend like you expected this. Don't be an armchair GM.

 

You guys are doing the exact same thing with Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson.

 

And Boni too.

 

What are you going to arm-chair for next year? JP? Maicer? Redmond?

[GD]

You guys are doing the exact same thing with Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson.

 

And Boni too.

 

It was a pretty common prediction that the first two would be good, and I don't think anyone's really claimed they knew Boni would be this bad.

[Angrioter]

The Dominican Winter League helped a lot to Yan Gomes............I saw him work for hours in the batting cage ....

 

Frank Francisco (Dayton Moore Assistant and LatinAmerica scout)

Said "That guy has great offensive talent" ...... I laugh for hours.

[jaysblue]

The simple fact is that he traded young, controllable catching depth for a not-so-young player (who had a horrible track record) that we did not need. We had all sorts of fringe starter/pen types in the system ready to compete. Gomes showed the ability to effectively play multiple positions for league minimum.

 

It was a stupid trade regardless of when the move was made in the grand scheme of things. I guess one of Alex's "MLB scouts" must've saw something in Rogers that nobody else saw.

 

My guess is that the Jays were looking at replacing Carlos V on the cheap and felt acquiring Rogers would easily solve that problem. Rogers had success in Cleveland as a reliever - 53 IP, 47 H, 12 BB, 54 K, 3.06 ERA, and a 1.11 WHIP. I think with Carlos V being a free agent and unlikely to sign again with the Jays since he wanted to start prompted the Jays front office to look for a similar type pitcher who could pitch in long relief and have the ability to make 15-20 starts need be.

[Stangstag]

Kelly Johnson is the same as he was last year. Im not sure why you guys are still bitching about that.

[GD]

Kelly Johnson is the same as he was last year.

 

With a better glove though

[KingKat]

Comon guys, don't pretend like you expected this. Don't be an armchair GM.

 

You guys are doing the exact same thing with Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson.

 

And Boni too.

 

What are you going to arm-chair for next year? JP? Maicer? Redmond?

 

I haven't heard anyone claim that they saw this coming from Gomes. People are questioning the wisdom of trading young controlable, catching depth but no one is claiming AA should have seen the offensive breakout coming. That's a way bigger surprise than bounce backs from Kelly and Yunel.

[jaysblue]

I haven't heard anyone claim that they saw this coming from Gomes. People are questioning the wisdom of trading young controlable, catching depth but no one is claiming AA should have seen the offensive breakout coming. That's a way bigger surprise than bounce backs from Kelly and Yunel.

 

I should see what Yan Gomes nets me in a trade in the Darrell league lol. He's now on the block! Send in the offers!

[ElNik2013]

I never understood why it took Aviles and Gomes to get a guy like Rogers and posted about it a few times. AA's last 4 trades have been horrible, he's lucky he has a job and I think he knows it, just look at his weight although admittedly, I haven't watched or heard an interview of his since the Mets trade.

 

I liked Gomes, I know easy to say now, but I really did. His swing reminded me of a good player, but I can't think of his name right now. I thought he was just a bit off in his stint last year, but liked what I saw. I also liked the fact that he could play 1b, 3b and C.

[ElNik2013]

I want to see what Yan Gomes does over a full season. He could have massive regression next year. It happens to a lot of guys. Obviously he is much better defensive catcher then he was ever given credit for here. But I'm not ready to say this is a franchise crippling blow. With that being said I never like position players traded for fringe major league relievers. I didn't like the trade at the time I'm still having a difficult time understanding it now. Asset management continues to be huge question mark. Dropping Mauro Gomez from the 40 so Mike Nickeas could play 1 inning defensively scares me. Gomez is a guy with power and would of been a nice guy to look at in September with Edwin and Jose out. Instead we saw the likes of Mark DeRosa and Ryan Langerhans get regular at-bats down the stretch at 1B. Unacceptable if you ask me. Especially considering they could of simply moved Jose Bautista to the 60-day DL to protect his roster spot. I'm tired of this organization giving away players.

 

 

I don't think anyone thinks Gomes is this good. Personally, I never understood why it took a Mike Aviles and a Yan Gomes to get a guy like Rogers. Anyway, too late now.

[ElNik2013]

I'm assuming someone on Alex's team was really pushing for Rogers. I guess he just didn't care as long as it wasn't one of his core players. He looked at Gomes as a depth guy. And then they signed Izturis to a three-year deal which made it even more painful.

 

 

Maybe. He also liked Happ, so he overpaid to get him. He liked Reyes too and probably got so excited at the chance to get him that he didn't notice the Marlins were trying to dump his and Buehrle's salaries on his dumb ass. Anyway, it goes on and on.

[Convo]

Maybe. He also liked Happ, so he overpaid to get him. He liked Reyes too and probably got so excited at the chance to get him that he didn't notice the Marlins were trying to dump his and Buehrle's salaries on his dumb ass. Anyway, it goes on and on.

 

Reyes is like that really fast shiny car you overpay for, even though the BMW or Lexus (Escobar) is going to give you just as much for way less. And it sure does hurt a lot more when it gets a dent or flat tire.

[flafson]

I was shocked when i saw we traded Gomes, i really liked him last year, can play many positions including catcher and was pretty good at it and looked enough with the bat. Last year Gomes had 68 WRC+.

To be honest i kinda feel the same way about Goins BUT (that's a huge but) i may be a little bit biased cause of the huge difference in defense that Goins gives over Boni.

[jaysblue]

I just find it funny how so many posters in this thread thought Gomes was going to be a superstar or this good prior to the start of this season. I never saw posters right at the time of the trade throw their arms in the air when Gomes was moved.

[Boxcar]

I just find it funny how so many posters in this thread thought Gomes was going to be a superstar or this good prior to the start of this season. I never saw posters right at the time of the trade throw their arms in the air when Gomes was moved.

 

I dunno if it's that they personally saw something in Gomes more than they feel this is another example of how bad this org is at assessing its own talent.

[KingKat]

I just find it funny how so many posters in this thread thought Gomes was going to be a superstar or this good prior to the start of this season.

 

Literally no one has said that.

[connorp]

I just find it funny how so many posters in this thread thought Gomes was going to be a superstar or this good prior to the start of this season. I never saw posters right at the time of the trade throw their arms in the air when Gomes was moved.

 

Yeah I dont think I saw that from anyone.. we're all just fans and see what we see in the games (or read on fangraphs).. the org has many other references to work from. If Gomes was an isolated incident it would be different. But AA's drafts have been very lackluster in finding quality major leaguers outside one or two possibilities (granted he's drafted many hs arms in last few years years but there are plenty of clear misses by now). Not to mention he had the best SP in baseball to move (and build the farm) when he came in and he turned that into basically Gose, Drabek, and TDA. Many years later there's no mlb production from any of them as of yet (and TDA was moved for a old SP that fizzled). His whole tenure was originally based on he was going to have superior scouting that gave him a distinct advantage over other teams basically. Many bought into it at the time.. but looking back, there's little evidence to support that

[KingKat]

I didn't like the trade at the time and voiced it, not because I thought Gomes was a star, but because I thought Rogers was a waste of space and Carreno could have had his spot.

 

Two potentially useful bench players for a reliever was a lot to pay but it's not like there was a riot over this. It didn't look like a good trade and it seemed symptomatic of AA's weird obsession with relievers but it also seemed fairly inconsequential. As Stoeten stated, we still thought D'Arnaud was the Jays' catcher of the future at the time so it's not like there was a whole lot of attachment to Yan Gomes, a player many including myself had dimissed as a non-prospect because of his poor contact skills. Little did we know that AA would pay more for less in the middle infield and get next to nothing at catcher all season while Gomes killed it in Cleveland.

[KingKat]

I should see what Yan Gomes nets me in a trade in the Darrell league lol. He's now on the block! Send in the offers!

 

I was surprised how much lower his fantasy value is than his real life value even in a breakout season. I do love the flexibility and how he rounds out a fantasy roster. I'd like to have him but I won't trade for him.

[Clojojo]

easily saw it coming, its sad when you criticize this organization and all you get labeled is as a troll. I saw this years ago, Gomes is and will a star and AAs babies on here defend him every chance they get. This may be the worst run franchise in the majors

[GD]

its sad when you criticize this organization and all you get labeled is as a troll.

 

are you f***ing serious