AA - Let down the fans - Dynamic Bats!! -- Has he heard of Arencibia Line??

[mitchf]

I still can't believe that over the course of one calender year (or less) AA managed to turn a team with well designed contracts into the AL Phillies.

 

I mean the guy was gifted two 4+ WAR bats in the middle of the lineup and he hasn't been able to solidify anything else on the team. The JA Happ trade is still the turning point for me. He went full retard right then and there and we know you can't come back from that.

[Olerud363]

Olerud363.............pitching and defense has been this teams achilles heel. Especially behind the dish/2B and LF. To think Melky's not going to be much better is foolish, IMO.

 

I don't disagree... but I looked at this a little closer a while ago... and it worked out that we could improve by about 20 wins if the pitching was elite, 5 wins if the defense was elite, and 15 wins if the offense was elite. So if everything is elite we could win 115 (like the 1998 Yankees, or 2001 Mariners).

 

That isn't going to happen. But there are multiple ways to improve....

 

If you asked any fan on here what would they rather do... get two starting pitchers and keep Arencibia and Izturus/Goins at second... or replace Arencibia and get a good second basement???

 

I think the answer would be replace Arencibia/get a second basemen.... unless the two starting pitchers were really, really good.

 

There are young players that could start (Hutchison, Drabek, Nolin, Stroman, Redmond), guys coming back from injury (Morrow, Happ). There is some depth. Does that exist at catcher/second??

 

Say you had the opportunity to get Chase Utley (Lawrie to second), Brian McCann, and Carlos Beltran. There are some problems, can Lawrie handle second?, can you work out enough playing time with the extra outfielders (yes, there will be injuries, Lind needs to be platooned at DH). So that's an option.

 

Then there is another option where you get two starting pitchers?? Which one is better?? Depends on who the two starting pitchers are.

 

So that's why I have a problem with what AA said. Instead of just saying, "the team is weak in a number of areas, we need to add 20 wins, and we'll be looking at every possible avenue to add wins", he identified one area (starting pitching) which is a weakness, but failed to consider other weaknesses, especially the ones the fans are concerned about (ArencibiaLine).

[Abomination]

So that's why I have a problem with what AA said. Instead of just saying, "the team is weak in a number of areas, we need to add 20 wins, and we'll be looking at every possible avenue to add wins", he identified one area (starting pitching) which is a weakness, but failed to consider other weaknesses, especially the ones the fans are concerned about (ArencibiaLine).

 

Everyone wants AA to throw Arencibia under the bus, but right now he can't. If he does that, no other free agent would ever want to come here to play. The best way to deal with the catching situation is to do it in the off-season quietly. If you were someone like McCann or Ruiz for example, would you want to come here if the catcher you are replacing just got destroyed by the team in the media? I think the fact that AA doesn't mention anything about JPA is probably just as noteworthy as anything else, because he talked positively about most of the other position players.

[Olerud363]

Everyone wants AA to throw Arencibia under the bus, but right now he can't. If he does that, no other free agent would ever want to come here to play. The best way to deal with the catching situation is to do it in the off-season quietly. If you were someone like McCann or Ruiz for example, would you want to come here if the catcher you are replacing just got destroyed by the team in the media? I think the fact that AA doesn't mention anything about JPA is probably just as noteworthy as anything else, because he talked positively about most of the other position players.

 

A good point. I guess there are things I'd like to hear in general terms. To contend they need "about" 750 runs, and give up 650. This year it will be something like 700 and 750.

 

So to contend they need to get 50 runs better on offense, 75 better on pitching, and 25 better on defense. Or they could get 100 better on offense, 25 better on pitching and 25 better on defense. That might work to.

 

Or 0 better on offense, 100 better in pitching 25 better on defense.

 

There is more than one way to skin a cat. He didn't throw Morrow under the bus to address the pitching, and he wouldn't have to throw JP under the bus to address this... here is what he should of said in his AA way...

 

"And going back to 2010, we've had dramatic cases of underproduction... compared to what was expected. I mean Aaron Hill in 2011... or Bonifacio this year... and both those guys, small sample size with Bonifacio, rebounded with another team... so we have to look at it... we can't carry a .250 on base percentage at a position... we want everybody above .300 ideally, so we look at this, what is it?? luck?? or something else?? Our player selection process?? Instruction?? Not everybody is going to be an allstar, or a moneyballer or walk 100 times or whatever, but there's a minimum level of competence needed on a contending team, and we have to make sure one way or another we get that from all positions."

[jaysblue]

Oh my god please delete your account

 

Quoting Jonah Hill! We love it!

[jaysblue]

I still can't believe that over the course of one calender year (or less) AA managed to turn a team with well designed contracts into the AL Phillies.

 

I mean the guy was gifted two 4+ WAR bats in the middle of the lineup and he hasn't been able to solidify anything else on the team. The JA Happ trade is still the turning point for me. He went full retard right then and there and we know you can't come back from that.

 

It's sad but true. The Jays best window to contend is 2014-2015. After that, this team is going to be a disaster. They better hope that they field a healthy team next season and the big names start performing to their expectations. If the Jays miss out on the postseason in 2014-2015, then you'll likely going to have to wait another 4-5 years after that.

[John_Havok]

A good point. I guess there are things I'd like to hear in general terms. To contend they need "about" 750 runs, and give up 650. This year it will be something like 700 and 750.

 

So to contend they need to get 50 runs better on offense, 75 better on pitching, and 25 better on defense. Or they could get 100 better on offense, 25 better on pitching and 25 better on defense. That might work to.

 

Or 0 better on offense, 100 better in pitching 25 better on defense.

 

There is more than one way to skin a cat. He didn't throw Morrow under the bus to address the pitching, and he wouldn't have to throw JP under the bus to address this... here is what he should of said in his AA way...

 

"And going back to 2010, we've had dramatic cases of underproduction... compared to what was expected. I mean Aaron Hill in 2011... or Bonifacio this year... and both those guys, small sample size with Bonifacio, rebounded with another team... so we have to look at it... we can't carry a .250 on base percentage at a position... we want everybody above .300 ideally, so we look at this, what is it?? luck?? or something else?? Our player selection process?? Instruction?? Not everybody is going to be an allstar, or a moneyballer or walk 100 times or whatever, but there's a minimum level of competence needed on a contending team, and we have to make sure one way or another we get that from all positions."

 

That last part is about the only thing in this thread that made any sense. There was a article written on fangraphs the other day stating how the A's are succeeding again these past few years. Basically it boiled down to them not having a lot of overall strengths, but rather that they have a collection of players without any glaring weaknesses.

[Olerud363]

So all those guys, basically left field, second and catcher are about 5 below. If you could replace them by good players there would a 15 win swing.

 

But it's not worth it for AA to even mention this. Yeah other s*** will go wrong, but get decent production out of 2nd/catcher/left, minimize the other s*** that goes wrong and things look good on offense.

 

(Admittedly Melky might rebound... but I think they need to give the left field job to someone else. Acquire another full time outfielder, good hitter, and name Melky as the fourth outfielder. If Melky is healthy there will be plenty of playing time for him given Bautista/EE/Lind (platoon)/Rasmus will have some s*** happen to them.)

[GeorgiaPeach]

It's sad but true. The Jays best window to contend is 2014-2015. After that, this team is going to be a disaster. They better hope that they field a healthy team next season and the big names start performing to their expectations. If the Jays miss out on the postseason in 2014-2015, then you'll likely going to have to wait another 4-5 years after that.

 

I can't f***ing wait. It's gonna be ultra exciting watching a bunch of declining vets.

[Olerud363]

That last part is about the only thing in this thread that made any sense. There was a article written on fangraphs the other day stating how the A's are succeeding again these past few years. Basically it boiled down to them not having a lot of overall strengths, but rather that they have a collection of players without any glaring weaknesses.

 

That's the whole point of the thread. If that part makes sense, the whole thread should make sense. AA "claims" he cares... and offers some fluff. But in reality he's full of it. He doesn't care.

 

He claims the Jays have dynamic bats that other teams don't have?? Huhhh?? What other teams don't have dynamic bats?? Yeah, Bautista, Reyes, EE... good hitters. But every teams 3 best hitters are pretty good. Lind and Colby "dynamic bats"?? Maybe if don't look at 2011/2012. Jays are middle of the pack in offense... so we are average in runs but have "dynamic bats"??

 

Defensively we are fine, cause we got, you know Colby, Brett, Reyes, and Bautista... say again?? Reyes and Bautista?? 31 and 33 next year?? With negative defensive value as measured by most systems??

 

You can't just say you "care". You don't have to reveal all your cards. But caring would mean showing a thoughtful mindset, an appreciation of advanced stats, using words like on base percentage, indicating you know that there are analytical systems that measure defense.

 

Indicating you understand the concept of up and down, and you can't just assume we have "dynamic bats" because we got Bautista (awesome 2011), EE (awesome 2012), Lind (good 2013), Rasmus (good 2013).... sure if THEY all had good years in the same year... great. But this won't happen, and measured by 3 year averages, or runs scored... the Jays don't have dynamic bats, at least not any more dynamic than other teams.

 

So AA isn't speaking to us... he's speaking to suits, to casuals, and to the ultimate casual suit, Paul Beeston. And that's the point of this thread. AA does not care about the fans, he cares about suits, people in power who employee him, just blowing hot air for them, he could care less about real fans.

[TBJ12]

It's sad but true. The Jays best window to contend is 2014-2015. After that, this team is going to be a disaster. They better hope that they field a healthy team next season and the big names start performing to their expectations. If the Jays miss out on the postseason in 2014-2015, then you'll likely going to have to wait another 4-5 years after that.

 

I could see 2015 being a bit of a problem since the team already has $91,200,000 in commitments but, 2016 doesn't look nearly as bad with just $27,000,000 committed as of right now.

[BlueJayWay]

I really don't think AA even looks at players in terms of how many wins they bring to the team. From everything I've heard, I would be absolutely shocked if he's aware of just how how bad 2B, C, and LF have been - I truly believe that he doesn't even have a number in his head for the contributions of said positions, and is thus completely ignorant to how much above-average position players at those positions will help.

 

A good GM would be looking to add wins by either adding runs or improving run prevention. They'd do this with an open mind, and inevitably come to the conclusion that the most efficient place to start is the place where they're the worst - C, 2B. I don't think AA will do this. I think he has no idea how bad those positions have been, and has it in his head that pitching was the problem.

 

Basically, I have no respect at all for the abilities of the guys who run this show.

Your goal shouldn't be to buy players, your goal should be to buy wins. #jonahhill #moneyball

[BlueJayWay]

I still can't believe that over the course of one calender year (or less) AA managed to turn a team with well designed contracts into the AL Phillies.

Except we took a short cut, skipping all of the success in between.

[G-Snarls]

Except we took a short cut, skipping all of the success in between.

 

Yep. At least the Phillies got a World Series banner out of it before they turned in to a pumpkin.

[Olerud363]

Your goal shouldn't be to buy players, your goal should be to buy wins. #jonahhill #moneyball

 

And a good front office, a Billy Beane led front office, should think in terms of buying wins. This front office needs to just think in terms of runs scored and runs against.

 

If they think in terms of wins it will quickly degrade... the old drunk scouts will dominate the converstation "wins.. .that makes sense... good to see you eggheads come around... now we need a guy who can drive in 100, and a guy like Jack Morris who knows how to win.... you eggheads aren't so bad after all."

 

So this front office... needs to just think in terms of runs scored and runs against. If they make a team that scores 900 and give up 775, bad defensive team but crazy on offense. wonderful... if they make a team that scores 650 and gives up 550... great. If they make a team that scores 734 and gives up 627... hey that's good too. If they make a team that scores 875 and gives up 625... probably no wild card race, just division domination.

 

They need a room full of white boards. They need AA and a couple of eggheads to lock themselves in there for a while... have geeky arguments.... get Zaun in there actually, teach 'em how to grow a set. Then they come out and have an open ear to what the scouts say, but don't let any dogma dominate.

[mitchf]

"I think there's too much talent, too much youth and too much ability for it to not come back at some point" - On Romero

"He was throwing out 25% of base runners, league average was 26%" - USED AS A POSITIVE ON JP

 

I'm so tired of having a GM spew out absolute garbage

[Jays]

"I think there's too much talent, too much youth and too much ability for it to not come back at some point" - On Romero

"He was throwing out 25% of base runners, league average was 26%" - USED AS A POSITIVE ON JP

 

I'm so tired of having a GM spew out absolute garbage

 

AA said JP and Mattola have a great relationship. I found that surprising.

[Abomination]

AA said JP and Mattola have a great relationship. I found that surprising.

 

Yeah, it's not the first time that's been mentioned either. They say JPA has great batting practice sessions, but as soon as he's in the game he gets some kind of mental block or something and it's all out the window.