Baseball Prospectus - What scouts are saying about Lawrie

[Boxcar]

Does this game work for his arbitrary number?

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN198904290.shtml

 

How about this one?

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MON/MON200209130.shtml

 

Those don't count because he wasn't playing for the Jays, OBVIOUSLY!!!

[TBJ12]

Are you actually arguing that Longoria is not an elite defender? Your homerism is pretty apparent.

 

I'm not saying that at all.

 

Maybe I should have changed the wording. IMO Brett Lawrie is a better defender than Longoria.

[TBJ12]

August 2nd 1969. Mark Belanger, arguably the greatest fielding SS in the history of baseball made 3 errors in one game.

 

Clearly I was wrong.

 

Now go f*** yourself.

 

Lol. Feel better now?

[The Cats Ass]

I know this isn't a Baseball Prospectus article but thought this would be a good place as any to put it.

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-lawrie-among-mlbs-elite-defenders-at-third/

 

Lawrie is rated 3rd in DRS for the 2012 and 2013 season. Machado and Arenado are first and second. And the myth that Lawrie gets a boost from playing a short right field during a shift is false, BIS does not give individuals credit for plays that involve a defensive shift.

[TBJ12]

I know this isn't a Baseball Prospectus article but thought this would be a good place as any to put it.

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-lawrie-among-mlbs-elite-defenders-at-third/

 

Lawrie is rated 3rd in DRS for the 2012 and 2013 season. Machado and Arenado are first and second. And the myth that Lawrie gets a boost from playing a short right field during a shift is false, BIS does not give individuals credit for plays that involve a defensive shift.

 

Manny Machado 37

Nolan Arenado 29

Brett Lawrie 26

David Wright 21

Luis Cruz 14

 

Longoria not in the top 5! This must be a mistake.

[The Cats Ass]

Manny Machado 37

Nolan Arenado 29

Brett Lawrie 26

David Wright 21

Luis Cruz 14

 

Longoria not in the top 5! This must be a mistake.

 

Longoria might just be a slightly above average defender right now. With the injuries he's had maybe he's lost a step or 2 to his range.

[TheHurl]

Manny Machado 37

Nolan Arenado 29

Brett Lawrie 26

David Wright 21

Luis Cruz 14

 

Longoria not in the top 5! This must be a mistake.

 

He was one in his 2012 injury riddled season. He's at 11 DRS this year. His career numbers are:

2008 - 10

2009 - 19

2010 - 20

2011 - 22

2012 -1

2013 - 11

[TheHurl]

So Brett Lawrie sucks again. wRC+ down to 95 for the season.

 

7 BB/7 K's in 117 PA's in August...1 BB/9K in 42 PA's in September. I earlier wrote the following

 

lets not get Lind'd by a small sample size of good patient AB's. He's not going to keep a 12% K-Rate like he has the past month, however I'd like to think he has the ability to get close to the 9% BB rate. if he goes back to swinging at everything next month we seriously need an overhaul of coaching staff's as it was so obvious (beyond the numbers) that Lind was a better hitter back in May, then suddenly his approach changed. Lawrie is a different looking hitter out there right now, different than he was 2 years ago even. If he reverts it might be my final straw with this team (which doesn't mean anything as I'll still watch every game I can)

 

I've been watching more Jays in 30 than full games so I can't say if something is different but the results are obviously different.

[TheHurl]

I really don't buy into his bat as above-average at this point (which I guess was obvious given I traded him for Iwakuma).

 

it is somewhat funny that if Adam Foster hadn't got it completely wrong about Lawrie's D in the IF there is a chance that he wasn't that far off by saying his bat wasn't good enough for LF...the LF that his slash line is closest to is probably Kelly Johnson.

[Tuco]

Dudes power is seriously lacking.

He looks like a 20 HR guy that maybe max's out at 25 a few times which is alright but nowhere near what many thought he would turn into. I personally thought he was a future .300 hitter after his innitial stint but he just doesnt make enough consistant hard contact for my liking. Will be a good player but doesnt look like hes gonna be the future stud many of us hoped.

[Olerud363]

Dudes power is seriously lacking.

He looks like a 20 HR guy that maybe max's out at 25 a few times which is alright but nowhere near what many thought he would turn into. I personally thought he was a future .300 hitter after his innitial stint but he just doesnt make enough consistant hard contact for my liking. Will be a good player but doesnt look like hes gonna be the future stud many of us hoped.

 

Yeah... sad to say. Key player doesn't develop as expected (hoped)... just like Snider, Gose, Lind, Hill. When develop I don't mean just get to the majors, I don't mean just have a good season. I mean have a run of good seasons.

[G-Snarls]

Dudes power is seriously lacking.

He looks like a 20 HR guy that maybe max's out at 25 a few times which is alright but nowhere near what many thought he would turn into. I personally thought he was a future .300 hitter after his innitial stint but he just doesnt make enough consistant hard contact for my liking. Will be a good player but doesnt look like hes gonna be the future stud many of us hoped.

 

Hard to say

 

Right now he looks like a .270-.280 hitter who could probably do 20 SB and 20 HR a year easily, a few years with more, while playing crazy good defense at 3B. That's still a really good player.

[The Cats Ass]

I really don't buy into his bat as above-average at this point (which I guess was obvious given I traded him for Iwakuma).

 

Give him time. Lawrie will be taking my team to the DDL championship next year.

[Abomination]

Hard to say

 

Right now he looks like a .270-.280 hitter who could probably do 20 SB and 20 HR a year easily, a few years with more, while playing crazy good defense at 3B. That's still a really good player.

 

Kinda sounds like David Wright the last 5 years, minus 20 or 30 points on the batting average.

[Laika]

The guy is 23. It almost doesn't matter what the specific results are at this point as long as the inputs aren't exceptionally discouraging.

 

At his age, lots of prospects and top prospects are getting their first taste of the big leagues. Brett Lawrie has a 6.7 BB%, 16.4 K% , and .164 ISO through over 1000 big league plate appearances. Those are pretty encouraging inputs IMO (even though they aren't truly inputs, just a proxy of inputs when taken together). Through 1083 major league plate appearances he has been an above average major league hitter. I would take that result as fairly encouraging as well.

 

It's easy to let lofty expectations get in the way of appreciating what really still is a very promising blue chip talent, who is still a prospect in a lot of ways.

 

Lawrie is one or two adjustments away from being a monster, and a true keystone piece of the franchise. It's silly as hell to just be like, "welp, Brett Lawrie is apparently a below average hitter. Sigh". That attitude is just so stupidly cynical.

 

You never really know when or if a guy is ever going to click. Thankfully in the case of Lawrie, he doesn't even have to click to be a real good player.

 

Even the all time greats can struggle to crush major league pitching in their first few seasons. It's not easy.

 

f***, look at Roberto Clemente's age 20-24: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1002340&position=OF

Look at Robin Yount's 18-23: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1014396&position=SS/OF

Look at Johnny Damon's 21-24: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=185&position=OF

More recently, check out Alex Gordon's 23-26: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5209&position=3B/OF

And Lastings Milledge's 21-25: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6441&position=OF

 

I'd say that all of these guys figured it out. Wait....

Edited September 14, 2013 by Laika

[Laika]

I really don't buy into his bat as above-average at this point

 

I think the aging curve would say that you're dumb. Unless you just mean "not above average right now", or something like that.

 

He's basically an average hitter right now. He's gonna be around for a long time because of his defense and the fact that he's already a good player. Even if he never really takes off or makes any drastic improvements or leaps forward, the mean projection would probably be that he'll ride the aging curve to the land of above average hitters, since he'll almost definitely be in the big leagues through his peak physical seasons. Some guys have to hit enough to get on the MLB aging curve wave. Lawrie's already done that for sure, he's on the wave.

[DuckDuckGose]

I think the aging curve would say that you're dumb. Unless you just mean "not above average right now", or something like that.

 

He's basically an average hitter right now. He's gonna be around for a long time because of his defense and the fact that he's already a good player. Even if he never really takes off or makes any drastic improvements or leaps forward, the mean projection would probably be that he'll ride the aging curve to the land of above average hitters, since he'll almost definitely be in the big leagues through his peak physical seasons. Some guys have to hit enough to get on the MLB aging curve wave. Lawrie's already done that for sure, he's on the wave.

 

He was rushed back from injury and has still almost been average with the bat, he plays plus D at 3B, is a decent base runner (albeit immature on the base paths) and is only 23yo and should only improve over the next ~3-5 seasons or so.

[Laika]

Settle down. We both know that Lawrie hovering in the 95-105 wRC+ range isn't unlikely enough that it's dumb to not be convinced he'll be better than that.

 

It would be slightly abnormal for him to stagnate and not improve as he approaches his peak. You didn't say "I'm not convinced that he'll improve", you said "I really don't buy into his bat as above average". The latter is a stronger statement and implies a more definitive judgment. I just think you're a tad pessimistic. As a Blue Jays fan in the context of today, it's easy to be a bit down on Brett Lawrie. From a more objective perspective I find it quite hard to not still be fairly optimistic about Brett.

 

And even if he repeats his 2012/13 production in 2014, I'd probably still have to be a bit bullish.

[DuckDuckGose]

Settle down. We both know that Lawrie hovering in the 95-105 wRC+ range isn't unlikely enough that it's dumb to not be convinced he'll be better than that.

 

It's hard to watch a healthy Lawrie and view an injury plagued 2013 as a true reflection of Lawrie's career. However, it's certainly possible and perhaps a likely outcome if Lawrie keeps getting injured.

 

I wills ay this though, I cannot remember the last Jay to have as much raw talent/athleticism as Lawrie does. Perhaps Shawn Green, or Vernon Wells did (Delgado was a born hitter but wasn't nearly as athletic) but, I might even go all the way back to Alomar. Lawrie has the complete tool-set and will be a decent player even if he doesn't put the whole package together. If he does he'll be an MVP calibre player.

[Laika]

I just think the situation is more nuanced than "he's only 23 and should improve a lot from his career means".

 

You're right, it is. For example:

 

- Some of his offensive profile "inputs", like K and BB%, are far from discouraging.

- He'll almost certainly get a chance to play out his peak years in the big leagues.

- The tools are existent

etc.

 

For a couple reasons, I'm not really bullish on his bat following that ideal trajectory

 

You said "ideal" but that word isn't appropriate. The general trajectory is what you think he won't follow.

 

I dunno. We have thousands of players to put into our sample and help build our general truths. Yeah, most specific players don't improve gracefully to 27 and then decline slowly. Some of them do wildly different things, like peak at 35 or peak at 23.... but can we really look at specific players and try to outsmart what we know as general truths? Is that a helpful way to approach the game or would it get us into trouble more than it would help us? I have no idea, it's baseball philosophy.

 

I would have to ask what your "couple reasons" are for why you think Lawrie isn't going to make positive improvements. It's not like he has massive holes in his swing, a big K%, an aversion to walks, an inability to juice baseballs, or an inability to hit a certain handedness or pitching. I'm not sure what troubling characteristics you think he has. I just see a guy who's hit tool is better than his gameplan right now, so he swings at a lot of pitches he should spit on, and unfortunately puts them into play weakly. But that seems like a problem that experience would help a lot.

[EdelweissBouquet]

If you watched a lot of Rays games you'd be whistling a different tune. Longo might not have the flash that Lawrie or Machado have, but he's so f***ing steady at the corner that it's practically emasculating.

 

I won't crucify you if you want to put Lawrie on their level though. He's a defensive stud, no doubt.

 

 

Emasculation is the removal of the penis and the testicles, the external male sex organs. !!!!

[EdelweissBouquet]

"Show me an example of another elite defender who's made three errors in the same game."

 

 

 

I don't need to be a f***ing scout to see the obvious.

 

 

http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1499&dat=19710729&id=TTkoAAAAIBAJ&sjid=hygEAAAAIBAJ&pg=7083,4303589

[Abomination]

I'm curious as to what people think Lawrie is going to do next year. wRC+ is down to 88 for the season, and was at 98 last year. I thought he'd be comfortably above average this year, but that obviously hasn't happened,.

 

I would expect Lawrie's 2012 to be the floor. Hopefully he can take a step forward from that though. I think this year he was really hurt by being rushed back from injury with almost no rehab period.

[Convo]

I would expect Lawrie's 2012 to be the floor.

 

LOL, no.

[Abomination]

IMO 2012 will be about his mean projection, maybe a bit below. Nothing would surprise me at this point. I could see a 120+ wRC+ monster season, or an injury-riddled season in which he has a hard time playing at a league-average level. His performance will be key next year.

 

Based on age, I think he should take a bit of a step forward from 2012 (as I said, I think this year he was mostly hurt early on with being rushed through his rehab period), and his second half numbers are a bit of a step forward from 2012 also. Somewhere in the 95 to 100 wRC+ seems right for a floor, and probably 115 or so as the ceiling.

[GD]

I'm going to say 105 maybe 110.

 

Yeah, same here, I'll go 107 because pulling numbers out my ass is fun.