What moves will be made this offseason??

[Boxcar]

At Jonn- word out of Cinci is that Choo will sign and Hamilton will be auctioned off and sold high.

 

Thanks Ken Rosenthal.

[The_DH]

This year the numbers are more dramatic and the sample size likely has much to do with that. Over his career he has always had more success with left handed starters v relievers. And it's not just the numbers, which show it, but the the swings and quality of at bats too. You'd have to ask Adam as to why but he's always been lost v LHRP. He's also had a bit if success, at least good swings vs the starters.

 

It means he's slow to adapt, probably not too intelligent. Don't take this as a dig but as an assessment. His natural hitting talent seems high but his brain is a few seconds behind.

[GD]

-Sign Justin Morneau

-Trade Gose for Andrew Albers

 

fini

[KSaw]

And this doesn't seem like statistical noise to you?

 

It's been going on too long for it to be luck. Looks more like a hitter who can hit lefties but only after he's seen one to get comfortable. Don't get me wrong, the guy has an issue with LHP but it's not a blanket issue. Show him back-to-back LH starters and he goes something like 1-3 and 1-4, with an 0fer in his first at bat each game. Bring in a late inning loogy to face him over a 3-week span and he goes 1-10.

[Nox]

It's been going on too long for it to be luck.

 

Time is not what determines sample size.

 

1st ABs against LHPs needs to be regressed massively. Drawing any conclusions from the raw numbers is completely ridiculous, void of any rigour.

[KSaw]

Time is not what determines sample size.

 

1st ABs against LHPs needs to be regressed massively. Drawing any conclusions from the raw numbers is completely ridiculous, void of any rigour.

 

Frankly I'm using the numbers to support what is fairly obvious just from watching him. He's always had poor timing and takes too many strikes in his first plate appearance v a lefty. Look what happens to hitters across baseball when they are behind in the count. Would you rather that I just said that Lind looks lost until he's seen 5+ pitches from the left side? Never known you to appreciate observational scouting.

[Laika]

It doesn't even f***ing matter why Adam Lind sucks against lefties, all that matters is that he does indeed f***ing blow against left handed pitching.

 

Kirksaw's "explanation" is obviously bogus, but it would also be immaterial even if true. Even if we assume that Adam Lind only sucks in his first plate appearance against lefties, that explanation offers no solution to his shittiness. It's not like they're going to sign a LOOGY and give Lindy simulated game style BP before every game against a LHSP.

 

Adam Lind is 2/3 of a platoon DH position, and probably worth his 7M option in 2014 if utilized properly. This is your typical Matt Joyce / Seth Smith type of player (sans the OF), that a somewhat savvy team knows how to use properly.

[KSaw]

I'm sorry but Lind just needs to get his head out of his ass and just hit. He can do it. Maybe he'll never do so but this is stupid-- he can and has hit lefties. Perhaps he's just too stupid to realize it. I've seen hitters who bail out on lefty breaking balls or who have their head fly off. Lind does neither. This is about mental approach and the poor baby's comfort level. About time for him to get aggressive when a lefty shows up because they just come in and he's behind 1-2 after 3 pitches with regularity and it's every year.

[Nox]

he can and has hit lefties.

 

You're on drugs.

[Angrioter]

Fire AA

[KSaw]

You're on drugs.

 

Didnt realize his career BA was .000 v them.

[Laika]

No, he simply can't hit lefties.

 

Juan Pierre can and has hit home runs.

 

Give Juan Pierre enough at bats and he'll hit the odd over the fence home run. You could say that Juan Pierre can and has hit home runs. This doesn't mean that Juan Pierre has the ability to consistently be a home run hitter.

 

Give Adam Lind enough chances and he'll look good against the odd lefty. He might even look like he can actually hit left handed pitching for isolated stretches. But the ability to do something consistently differs from the ability to do something at all.

 

Even in 2009, Adam Lind didn't hit lefties exceptionally well. He had a 100 wRC+ (league average hitter) with a near .340 BABIP (he's at .297 career and only .274 career against LHP).

[GD]

Didnt realize his career BA was .000 v them.

 

It's physically possible for Lind to hit lefties, he just kinda f***ing sucks at it.

[Nox]

Didnt realize his career BA was .000 v them.

 

His career numbers against them were posted above. Even after regressing them appropriately, he's f***ing garbage. A DH might as well hit 0 against them.

[DuckDuckGose]

His career numbers against them were posted above. Even after regressing them appropriately, he's f***ing garbage. A DH might as well hit 0 against them.

 

If you have them handy would you mind posting the regressed numbers?

[Angrioter]

career vs. LHP = 57 wRC+ in 837 PA

career vs. RHP = 123 wRC+ in 2491 PA

 

He should never face another lefty.

 

23% above avg for a DH/1B-platoon is s***.

 

Josh Willingham ps

[Nox]

If you have them handy would you mind posting the regressed numbers?

 

I don't have them handy. If Fangraphs would post splits for the projections, that's all we'd need. Just looking at it, I think his estimated true talent would be somewhere around a 75 wRC+ against LHPs. That's not usable when that comes from a DH.

[Angrioter]

I don't have them handy. If Fangraphs would post splits for the projections, that's all we'd need. Just looking at it, I think his estimated true talent would be somewhere around a 75 wRC+ against LHPs. That's not usable when that comes from a DH.

 

Yeah. DH, 1B, LF are positions on the defensive spectrum which should require a high offensive level (Melky, Pillar, Lind are bust) ......

A golden glove from LF or 1B is s***. Hit the damn ball and produce runs.

[Laika]

Yeah. DH, 1B, LF are positions on the defensive spectrum which should require a high offensive level ......

A golden glove from LF or 1B is s***. Hit the damn ball and produce runs.

 

LF has actually become a very athletic position in the majors. Just look at the names from the qualified Fangraphs leaderboard for LF:

 

Trout

CarGo

Marte

Gordon

Upton

Denorfia

Holliday

McLouth

Soriano

De Aza

Brown

Blanco

Cespedes

Brantley

Nava

Ibanez

Carter

Murphy

Young Jr.

 

In bold are the only names that you would really consider all-bat types. Half of these guys are borderline CF, CF by trade, or athletic converts from the IF.

 

Increasingly, teams like to give their LF gig to a guy who can go get the baseball and cover other positions on the diamond. Having a LF that can cover CF is a good step towards constructing a more robust major league roster (robust as in, resilient to unforeseen injuries or other setbacks).

[Angrioter]

LF has actually become a very athletic position in the majors. Just look at the names from the qualified Fangraphs leaderboard for LF:

 

Trout

CarGo

Marte

Gordon

Upton

Denorfia

Holliday

McLouth

Soriano

De Aza

Brown

Blanco

Cespedes

Brantley

Nava

Ibanez

Carter

Murphy

Young Jr.

 

In bold are the only names that you would really consider all-bat types. Half of these guys are borderline CF, CF by trade, or athletic converts from the IF.

 

Increasingly, teams like to give their LF gig to a guy who can go get the baseball and cover other positions on the diamond. Having a LF that can cover CF is a good step towards constructing a more robust major league roster (robust as in, resilient to unforeseen injuries or other setbacks).

 

but..........The LF defense still have less impact on the results of games compared to the most valuable defensive positions.

About SaberDefense: Trout, Marte, de Aza, McLouth are CF. The others look good because they are compared to awful LFers lol.

[P2F]

Scenario:

 

Lind gets bought out by Jays

Rays sign Lind on the cheap (say, 2 years: $9MM)

Lind puts up 4 WAR seasons in both years

 

Come on, you just know it will happen.

[Angrioter]

Scenario:

 

Lind gets bought out by Jays

Rays sign Lind on the cheap (say, 2 years: $9MM)

Lind puts up 4 WAR seasons in both years

 

Come on, you just know it will happen.

 

 

How?

Defense and speed below average, and playing only against righties.

[Laika]

The others look good because they are compared to awful LFers lol.

 

This isn't really that true anymore though, as I just showed. There are only like, 7 or 8 clunker type LFers in the game right now, and 2 or 3 of those play DH/1B as frequently as they play the OF (Seth Smith, Chris Carter, maybe someone else). You can almost count the number of statuesque LFers dragging down the positional average catch rates on one hand. This isn't any (/much) different than other positions on the diamond. You can find a handful of starting butchers everywhere.

[DuckDuckGose]

LF has actually become a very athletic position in the majors. Just look at the names from the qualified Fangraphs leaderboard for LF:

 

Trout

CarGo

Marte

Gordon

Upton

Denorfia

Holliday

McLouth

Soriano

De Aza

Brown

Blanco

Cespedes

Brantley

Nava

Ibanez

Carter

Murphy

Young Jr.

 

In bold are the only names that you would really consider all-bat types. Half of these guys are borderline CF, CF by trade, or athletic converts from the IF.

 

Increasingly, teams like to give their LF gig to a guy who can go get the baseball and cover other positions on the diamond. Having a LF that can cover CF is a good step towards constructing a more robust major league roster (robust as in, resilient to unforeseen injuries or other setbacks).

 

They aren't all bat guys but all of those players hit fairly well. Obviously defense is important but you aren't going to save 20 runs in LF even if you are a GG quality defender.

[Laika]

They aren't all bat guys but all of those players hit fairly well. Obviously defense is important but you aren't going to save 20 runs in LF even if you are a GG quality defender.

 

I'm not really sure what your point is.

 

In recent years, guys like Gardner and Crawford have been known to save ~20 runs in LF. Alex Gordon I think was in the teens the last two years.

 

There has definitely been a trend towards more defensively capable LFers in Major League Baseball. You can see this by simply looking at the league average offensive LF production, and how it has declined.

 

(Year - BP TAV)

2013 - .265

2012 - .270

2011 - .263

2010 - .275

2009 - .271

2008 - .273

2007 - .273

2006 - .276

2005 - .273

2004 - .279

2003 - .281

2002 - .280

 

Comp that to RF, which hasn't moved much in a decade (probably down a bit though due to run environment going down post-roids):

2002 - .282

2003 - .280

----

2011 - .281

2012 - .273

2013 - .281

 

Increasingly, teams seem to be using LF to roster defensively capable players that can provide CF depth. Sometimes teams even bring up young CF and start them in LF (Desmond Jennings, Starling Marte, Brett Gardner).

[Frenchsoup]

Lind is hitting 298 against righties, Rajai is hitting 358 against lefty's, if they were platooned together they could have had a monster this year but clearly the jays don't believe in platoons when your wasting your bench slots with derosa and blanco and then going to a 3man bench for a longtime....

[Convo]

Lind is hitting 298 against righties, Rajai is hitting 358 against lefty's, if they were platooned together they could have had a monster this year but clearly the jays don't believe in platoons when your wasting your bench slots with derosa and blanco and then going to a 3man bench for a longtime....

 

That's unlikely though. They don't play the same defensive positions and I can't really see Rajai DH'ing often and I don't don't want to see Lind playing LF. But I suppose they really could both DH... now that I think of it, that actually seems pretty good with EE being full-time 1B.

[Frenchsoup]

Yeah. DH, 1B, LF are positions on the defensive spectrum which should require a high offensive level (Melky, Pillar, Lind are bust) ......

A golden glove from LF or 1B is s***. Hit the damn ball and produce runs.

 

A healthy melky is a good LF candidate, i just don't think he can stay healthy on the turf so he'll need some sort of platoon, the jays can't expect to march him out there for 160 games.

[Frenchsoup]

That's unlikely though. They don't play the same defensive positions and I can't really see Rajai DH'ing often and I don't don't want to see Lind playing LF. But I suppose they really could both DH... now that I think of it, that actually seems pretty good with EE being full-time 1B.

 

RHP- Lind 1B EE DH LHP- EE 1B Rajai DH

[Angrioter]

A healthy melky is a good LF candidate, i just don't think he can stay healthy on the turf so he'll need some sort of platoon, the jays can't expect to march him out there for 160 games.

 

What?

No POP, speed or D.