Olerud363.354

I think you can say that the tool should lead to an outcome. Under narrow definition 'hit tool' leads to batting average (with power tool and plate discipline tool leading to other outcomes) we have enough data for Arraez and Vlad to say their in game 'hit tool' is 80 for Arraez 65/70 for Vlad. Vlad's power tool is around 65 too, and plate discipline tool about that too. Where an 80/80/80 would be mid 90s Frank Thomas. Arraez is like an 80/30/30 or something. Thing I am curious about is whether the limitation is inherent, like his hand eye coorrdination and body control is 98th percentile not 99.9. Or if the next 5 years will be incredible as he finally makes the small mechanical tweak that unlocks the beast. I think Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield, Big Papi, Cabrera actually all took it to the next level age 27-33. It's a bit hidden because of offense levels. Ramirez, Cabrera were maybe 145 wRC+ until age 26. Then like 165 age 27-33.

I am sure the Blue Jays high performance analytics team is having the same conversation as Big_Walleye started, but with better data and better professionalism. A bunch of them are talking the same things on their slack but way better data and communication skills.

But it is hard to get a .320 average with a 50% ground ball rate (also hard to do it with a 25% ground ball rate ie Daulton Varsho). Luis Arraez career launch angle is 12% and launch angle sweet spot percentage is 40%, Vlad's is 7.8% and 33%, Varshos is like 20% launch angle and 30%. If one defines 80 hit tool "in game" as a .320 average, top 3 in baseball, batting titles, best in a generation franchise, which I think is reasonable, then can't get there without a good launch angle sweet spot. 80 as a tool may be the hand eye coordination to potentially get there. Which is why Vlad so far I would say is 65 in game with 80 potential and still time to get there.

Just incredible watching him over those four games. At his best he can do what Bautista did but mix in opposite field singles on tough pitches. He mixed elite exit velocity, a good eye, and good launch angle and hit to all fields. Love that in game one he pulled a 365 fly ball which would have been a routine out if hit to center, Then also hit several opposite field singles. 80 hit tool in the ALDS.

Wasn't too long ago, maybe even 3 weeks ago that the narrative was that hitting for average and contact wouldn't work in the 2020s during the season because of the shift and wouldn't work in the playoffs because it's too hard to string 3 hits together. Last night no homers and strung together multiple hits with other contact (sac fly, the Chisholm error). Then several other multi-run rallies without homers in game 1, 2, and 3. That being said Jays hit for good power in the series too, and no one way is ever better than another for same amount of runs scored. Like if you consider an 800 run offense one built on a .265 average and contact, and another on 250 homers both will be as good in the playoffs. Just go back to 2021 Atlanta Braves. Same runs scored in regular season as 2025 Jays. Won world series with Adam Duvall and Joc Pederson and Darby Swanson (Freddie Freeman too) forming a .245 240 homer team.

The great Aaron Boone said recently don't root for other teams because you might be rooting for the wrong thing. So no idea really. Detroit seems an easier matchup, but who knows. Interestingly Seattle has a tick below average pitching I think and close to Yankees level offense if adjusting for park. They play in the best pitchers park in the AL which makes their hitters look much worse I just checked out J-Rod and Raleigh's lifetime home/road stats. Mind blowing. Your dealing with two first ballot hall of famers that are getting screwed by their park. First Julio Now check out Raleigh Or check out Luis Castillo 2025 home road... Castillo is actually Berrios but know one knows it...

Absolutely. For a few few years I mocked the high a.k.a. "low" performance team when everyone was underperforming. Now you have Clement, Barger, Lukes, Schneider and Straw at 10 fWAR basically for 3 positions. Heineman too. So the development of mostly older relatively unheralded guys has been incredible. Rejuvination of Springer incredible too. Lot's of good stories on the pitching side too.

Yeah. If we lost 3-1 last night with Beiber going 6 and Fluharty Nance pitching clean innings we'd be excited to see a fresh Varland opening and the board would have half the activity it does.

It was a big deal. Went from 98% chance of winning series (when up 6-1) to 65% in about an hour. Felt like this after game 2 against Kansas city in 2015 when Ryan Goins dropped a popup in a similar situation as last night. I think in that case Jays chances went from almost 50% of winning series (up 3-0 7th down 1-0 in series) to about 15% in 30 minutes. Fans are pretty good at sensing the big probability drops, even if not looking at the numbers, so no surprise a lot of people are feeling bad.

Also wonder about Schneider left field/IKF second, vs Straw left/Schneider second. You could argue the latter and the two errors don't happen. The first just because of the fact it was a pretty routine play, and if Schneider at second he doesn't do the same thing (maybe he misses something else...). Straw makes the catch in left.

Lauer was decent this year and has a track record of being decent in 2021 and 2022 as well. According to fangraphs Lauer has a lower expected ERA. According to the radar gun Lauer throws 90 and Schlittler 99. According to the Boston Red Sox Schlittler does 99 with pin point control and can do it for 8 innings. I don't really know how good Schlittler really is. Maybe Red Sox just suck. Maybe the pin point control was one night only.

I remember David Price went on short rest game 4 of LDS 2015. You had Dickey (risky as a bullpen day) work out, then (perhaps irrationally) Gibbons went to Price, then Stroman for game 5. In that case the HAD to win both. Yesivage would be on 4 days rest Friday. So options are 1. Gausman 3 days rest sometime tonight, Yesivage Friday on 4 days rest (if needed) 2. Neither today. Gausman 5 days rest Friday (if necessary). Yesivage avialble. 3. Neither today. Yesivage 4 days rest Friday (if necessary). Gausman available. 4. Both today 1 inning. Both available 4 innings Friday (if necessary). Guess part of it depends whether Varland and Lauer get rocked or not...

So then what happens Friday? If bad where does up 2-0 with 6-1 lead in game 3 rank among the great collapses in playoff history? Up 6-1 mid third of of game 3 jays had what 98% chance of winning the series? I guess their chances of winning series went from 98% to maybe 65% (if you give NY big edge tonight) in an hour? What is worse? A game where chances go from 50% to 0%? Or 3 innings where it goes from 98% to 65%? I think for some people the latter is worse. Something that is a sure thing disappears and if you are prone to getting bad vibes about momentum if feels like it is gone. 50% to 0% is just like the coin flip didn't work out this time....

Hoffman. Who cares if he is used or not. Gausman Yesivage is the bigger question. How do you make sure you use both for at least 5 innings each (if going good) over next 2 games? Both were less than 80 pitches last start. Do you go to Gausman today if Jays get lead? What about Yesivage? Any chance one or both could pitch an inning today and still 4 or 5 innings if needed Friday?

I get that the homerun was a bit of a freak hit by a freak on an inside fastball. However Fox pointed out Judge had a great swing on the pitch before. And Varland went inside but the pitch was the same height and Judge was looking for it. Maybe he did have signs relayed from second. Kirk doing something to give it away?

He pitched 200 innings in 2019 and 2022. His k-rate has gone down a lot since his CY. Just not the start you want from the deadline acquisition handed a 6-1 lead and a quiet crowd . Varland too. Not the relief appearance you want from the deadline acquisition handed a 6-3 lead. Hopefully today is better, but no way to sugar coat this, deadline acquisitions failed spectacularly.

The more playoff games the better for the franchise. Every playoff game is a lot of revenue, gives the franchise more cred. Making it to an ALCS is huge even if you lose. Making it to a World Series even bigger even if you lose. Like wouldn't it be great to have baseball this Sunday... how could you think it would be worse to have a game at Rogers Center to look forward to over Thanksgiving, even if a doomed and futile mission, then not having Thanksgiving games? When I was like a little kid in 85 I cried watching the ALCS on black and white TV. A little older in 89 and 91 almost burnt every blue jays shirt I had. In 2015 and 2016 as a grown middle aged man I rage posted on the board before this one. Even though I was emotionally damaged every time and still maybe not recovered from ALCS losses still would rather have made it to ALCS then lost to Baltimore in 89 or 16... or not had the bat flip. Would have been more damaged by earlier losses.

Is Bieber's stuff back? Is he 2022 Bieber? Seems like his k-rate was insane 2019-2020. Are those days gone forever? What is possible from a guy who has rested 10 days and may get 8 more off if he wins?

Or Seattle? Can't remember if he has general hate for Seattle or just the 2022 incarnation?

Turn the question the other way. Do you think Vlad could hit .320 .420 .600 over a 5 year span ? He's only 26. Judge, Miguel Cabrera, David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez all went on 5 year runs like this at age 27 or later. So if he did do this, which from minor stats, best 4 month runs, and scouting reports I think he could I would call that performance 80 hit tool. I'd call his 2019-2025 performance 65 hit tool. So I don't mean to insult Vlad by calling him 65 hit tool, just saying he is a 65 right now, but still a potential 80 and could still go on that kind of run for a few years.

His career average of .288 is 13th I think among active players. 80 is hall of fame. 70 is elite. 65 is star according to the definition of the scale I found. If we consider 'hit tool' to mostly reflect average (with power, and plate discipline being different tools) In terms of hit tool 80 Aaerez - .317 70 (.290+) Altuve, Turner, Bichette, Judge, Betts, Diaz and a couple of others 65 (.285+) - Vlad, Seager, Yelich and a few others Vlad also ranks 8th in batting average in franchise history. Maybe 5th in the advanced era adjusted hitting ratings (after Baustista, Donaldson, McGriff and Delgado). Vlad has underperformed his expected stats. There is an argument that he has only dramatically underperformed twice (which is true) but he has under-performed by a bit a lot of other years, never over-performed so career is down 15 points wRC+ between expected and actual hitting stats. Some of this is semantics but I wouldn't label a top 10-20 hitter active and 5-10 franchise performing at 80 hit tool level. Like seems 80 should be for once in a generation. Like top 3 active. Best in 30 years for franchise. Vlad is still on hall of fame track if he lasts through his contract. And could up ranking much higher for "top 5" seasons then he will "overall". Like if he plays 20 years maybe he has 5 great seasons that are generational, but the overall isn't quite as good.

I think it would be fair to give Arraez an 80 grade hit tool. Multiple batting titles and active lifetime leader with near .320 career average. Amazingly his other tools are so bad he is an average player even with 80 hit tool. No walks, no power, no baserunning, no defense. Vlad is probably 65 hit tool, 60 power, 60 strike zone judgement in game, but 80/80/70 raw talent. On a hall of fame track Dave Winfield/Eddie Murray/Freddie Freeman level, but not Frank Thomas Pujols level. However story is still to be written. He has 2 elite seasons and if he ages well could put up a few more.

That's another one of the disconnects that frustrates fans. Good year this year, but the kind of year that you'd expect out of Lyle Overbay or Yandy Diaz. 80 hit tool makes you picture Pujols or Frank Thomas in his prime. Has his overall performance really lived up to 80 tool? Kind of semantics but who else has gotten the 80 hit tool? Seems like Vlad is performing more at a 70 hit tool level. He is elite in terms of velocity, but is that really 80 hit tool if the launch angle sweet spot isn't there? The launch angle sweet spot doesn't only effect the hard contact, but if launch angle is good soft contact will be more productive. Like Saturday he had a 101 mph homerun, and a couple of soft contact hits because launch angle was good on all. Like when Frank Thomas, or Cabrera or Manny Ramirez were putting up really big years was it all hard contact ? Or was some of the soft contact productive too? Or Judge this year? Winning a batting title King as much as he does did he also have a good sweet spot percentage on his soft contact? As just a fan watching a couple games this weekend Vlad gave the "And that's why he's such a great hitter, he was fooled a bit on that pitch but dunked it into center field' vibe, not the 'hit hard but right at third and they turn the double play" vibe.

A lot of the frustration with Vlad was the 80 hit tool label given to him by Baseball America. I think it may have been the first time they gave anyone that rating for hit tool. Correct me if I am wrong but "80" tools are really rare. 80 hit tool, combined with minor league numbers, combined with 4 months of 'prime Judge/Pujols" level in 2021 gave fans a mental image of what Vlad could be and led to frustrations when he is not that. Last 2 games have been what I picture 80 hit tool being. 110 mph 25 degree no doubt homeruns, mixed in with also being productive when not hitting the ball as hard because launch angle was good. Like 80 hit tool is both elite exit velocity and also adjusting and using elite hand eye to hit a soft line drive when fooled a bit, instead of rolling over and grounding out. So he has 80 hit tool but so far maybe needs to be viewed like any other 80 tool. Like a guy could have 80 speed but not always be able to take advantage of it in a game. Awesome to see Vlad be 80 hit tool Vlad for 2 playoff games.

It might depend on whether they think Bieber or Gausman is easier for the other team to plan for. Also might depend on what their analytics say about where Bieber is on his rehab and how his stuff is playing with more rest. Don't have a horse in the race here so not saying one or the other is the right choice, just that they probably have some nerds crunching a bunch of data. If their data says Beiber with long rest is back to 2022 Bieber and there is a risk Gausman could tip his pitches could go with Beiber.