Olerud363.354

Right move I guess was Gausman for 7... maybe. Sigh. Just all the options could have gone wrong and have gone wrong. Hoffman can and has given up 2 homers an inning. Gaussman can and has been shaky after 5. Varland can and has given up game changing 3 run homeruns twice in the playoffs. Real problem is that there are no shutdown relievers in the bullpen. Something like this was bound to happen and no one like Munoz or even Brash available to the Jays.

It's just a repeated pattern of Cherry Picking with Grant that has gone back ... 15 years? 20 years? At this point I can't even remember when I started posting with this group. I guess this group goes back at least to 2007 because I remember some strange lady constantly posting about Aaron Hill and his stubby legs, and she hated him just like Grant hates the Mariners and Suarez. Edit: What I mean is the same group of posters have been posting on different iterations of message boards, going back to the team board in the 2000s,

Little Johnny watching game with Dad on Rogers Sportsnet Channel. Little Johnny loves the Blue Jays. He is only 11. He loves life. He thinks the world is a happy place. His Dad tells him about Kelly Gruber. Little Johnny is like "f*** off" dad about Kelly Gruber this is my time (he learned the bad word from John Schneider because Sportsnet censors not doing their job. Little Johnny watches Suarez hit grand slam. Little Johnny cries for 2 hours. Little Johnny sad the next day. Little Johnny tells his Dad "Suarez has driven me from the game. Is it weak of me to give up?". Dad "No son. Suarez has driven me from the game too." Neither watches Sunday night game 6 or any other game ever again. Eugenio Suarez drives those two and many more away from the game.

According to fangraphs he's had 7 seasons of 3.5 WAR or more and 33.1 lifetime WAR. 3 good seasons with Cincinnati, 2 with Seattle. 1 with Arizona. And one split. He's been a good player everywhere he's played. He will end being in terms of fWAR at a level with Jose Bautista and Jesse Barfield. He's had 49 homers twice and was probably a decent 3rd basemen in his prime, but maybe lost a bit now. This Seattle is bad thing is lunacy. Seattle is a good organization. Toronto and Seattle are both good organizations this decade. They win about 90 and this year are on good playoff runs. Seattle has kept Munoz healthy, Toronto broke Jordan Romano so Seattle probably gets to go to the World Series and will likely give the Dodgers some trouble.

Slam dunk choice was Jordan Romero to get redemption for 2022. Unfortunately Jays couldn't keep him healthy and Mariners have kept Munoz healthy to anchor their bullpen. That might just be luck. From 1985 to 1992 Jays kept Henke healthy and performing, Duane Ward from 1988 to 1993 despite pitching up to 120 innings as a reliever. Ward's arm fell off after that. In 2015 20 year old Osuna and 22 year old Sanchez were the top guys. Osuna from A-ball. Sanchez had a low homer rate as a reliever in 2014-2016. Shut-down back end of bullpen is missing compared to 92/93 and 2015 teams.

Just did a quick check of his stats on baseball-reference and looks like he was his usual self in September. Lots of walks no homers. He hadn't given up a homer since July -- https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=littlbr02&year=2025&t=p. I am wondering where all these stats that he had a 6.00 ERA or something last 20 games are coming from? Is it starting at the 3 run game in LA. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=littlbr02&t=p&year=2025 Guy gave up 2 homeruns all year in 78 appearances. Walked way too many. Unfortunately he gave up the third homerun last night. Thinking probably was just that he has lowest homer rate, so put him in to avoid a solo shot. 3rd pitch solo shot ofcourse. Hoffman gave up 15 homeruns all year so wouldn't have been thrilled with him their either. I guess Dominquez would have been the right decision. I put some of this on the front office and the high (a.k.a. low) performance team. Difference in the series may end up being that the Mariners have a great shut-down bullpen right now. Mariners have kept Munoz healthy since 2022 and developed a couple of other guys. Jays have not kept their guy (Romano) healthy and failed to develop other options. Hoffman may not be exactly healthy either based on his numbers and whispers of shoulder issues.

IKF in. Santander out. Presumably Santander has back issues. Other options Disable him for Loperfido Straw Schneider Disable him for Bo who may have made more progress since Saturday. Disable Santander for France Disable Santander for R.J. Schreck (on 40 man? if not put Santander on 60 day since he would be out for WS anyway). Disable Santander for Classe Catch Heineman and Kirk DH Who likes IKF better than any of the above? Are they keeping some options ready in case they have to disable Santander?

80 hit tool. Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Luis Arraez, Ernie Clement. 80 hit tool with 70 power and 65 plate discipline, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 80 hit tool with 80 defense - Ernie Clement.

That's the simulation theory. Universe is a simulation and re-uses code. Run the same code. 40 year old vtrn' starter gets destroyed to ruin momentum. Wonder how long the leash is. Dickey went bunt, homerun, walk. Have they game-planned what to do in that scenario? Will they get a Bassett or Varland in right away? Hopefully don't have to worry about that. Do not want repeat of 2015 game 4.

One hill I will die is that the crazy fan reactions do track probability shifts. Lose first 2 games of series you basically go from 50% to 12% chance of winning the series. Good news is that since the Jays regularly go down 0-2 in the ALCS they should by chance come back and win from one of these 0-2 deficits.

If you are 32 years old this week or younger you have never seen in your life time the Toronto Blue Jays win game 1 or game 2 of an ALCS. Last time they did that was October 6th 1993. Chicago White Sox and big Frank Thomas went down 0-2 at home. White Sox did get it back to Chicago though. Last time Toronto won an ALCS game 3 2015. A game 4 2016, A game 5 2015. A game 6 1993. A game 7. NEVER. They have never won a game 7 in any round. The Toronto Blue Jays have never won a game 7. No one living or not living has ever seen that. If it is your 40th birthday this week or you are older than 40 you have been alive for a Toronto Blue Jays game 7. Otherwise you have never even seen one.

Can be like the Yankee fans.... if we even win one gotta go on social media and be like 'listen Mariner fans... I like you guys... I really do... but we told you not to let us win... Now Louis Varland starts tomorrow followed by Brandon Little... its over. Its really over. You shouldn't have let us win."

Imagine they trade for Kwan and get Arraez. People would lose their s***. Probably justifiably so but would be funnier then the Keirmaier/IKF acquisitions after losing out on Ohtaniu. Probably they go down to the wire for that "Japanese Babe Ruth" guy before getting Kwan and Arraez.

Bo injury sucks. Got away with it for a while but eventually it would cost. Last night Buffalo Boys hitting 2nd, 4th, 7th, and 8th, and I believe one of the worst hitters in baseball (Giminez) hitting 9th. Love what the Jays have done developing older, un-heralded guys, but lack of healthy Bichette and Santander hurts.

Adjusted for park Mariners offense is a bit better despite the strike-outs. Atlanta Braves won the 2021 World Series with a similar high strike-out low average team. Last scrappy batting average based team to win the World Series?? 2015 Kansas City Royals I guess.

If you go back 5 years long term Mariners have more wins than the Jays. Is their division easier? With Houston in it, and 2023 World Champions I have a hard time believing that. Run differential last 5 years Jays win. However that is mostly from 2021. What I am saying is this. Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners going back 5 years are pretty even. Going back 2 days they are not very even. The Seattle Mariners are far, far better. Going back 5 weeks they are not even. Seattle Mariners are far better. Going back 1 year even again. Should we hire Seattle's hitting coach for Vlad? Or Aaron Judge's hitting coach? (Yankees apparently want our hitting coach).

Don't get me wrong. No hate for Vlad. Could make the hall of fame if he can avoid Prince Fielder problems and keeps on hitting missiles on the ground until he is 40. Or maybe he will find the next mode someday... maybe in Seattle mid-week. Then we will all love him again.

I feel like long term trends are just not what humans are meant to react to. Like I guess long term tiger migration pattern maybe less important than short term tiger positioning so only need to react to short term. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - hit ball hard. Mostly on ground. If go up in sky sometimes goes out. If hit ball up in sky 3 times in 3 days that happens from time to time... doesn't mean he has found Aaron Judge mode. Will likely hit ball on ground lots still.

Jays hitting coach - line drive, hit for average, no k - Vlad Guerrero Jr. becomes like 2021 version of Ty France. Mariners hitting coach - hit ball far, hit ball high, k OK - Cal Raleigh becomes 1961 Roger Maris. Just kind of joking. No real dislike of Jays hitting philosophy. Just that offense is offense no matter how it's generated. Any type of offense can be shut down or appear awesome in a short series.

Can't remember if you were on the old board but Grant's 'Mariners are bad' thing has been going on for several years. It's pretty unbelievable and no idea where or why he hates the Mariners. When adjusted for park Mariners are second best offense behind Yankees. It's close enough that I wonder if they are just as good as Yankees when replacing Tellez and their former 3rd basemen with Naylor and Saurez. Grant is right that Mariners pitching isn't quite as good as the ERAs would have you believe, because the park is an extreme pitchers park. It's hilarious though that he uses the park factor when evaluating their pitchers but not their hitters. OMG! Mariners scored only 760 runs with .244 average and 240 homeruns. They are horrible. Adjusting for park factor, and weighting Naylor and Saurez in there Seattle's current collection of position players are probably a .255 hitting team with 800+ runs and 270 homers. A better offense then Toronto, but without the 'proffesional hitter/play the game right' vibe. Not that there is anything wrong with hitting .270 as a team and scoring 800 runs that way. Just that it is no better/no worse than scoring 800 runs the power way... and lady luck can strike either type of team down over a short series. Maybe Yankees should recruit Seattle's hitting coach instead of ours.

This is why baseball is the hardest sport to follow. So much luck. And the losses are often the same, just a game where unlucky things happen. Like last night in the first inning if Vlad's line drive is in the gap completely different game. Of he gets 3 degrees more launch angle on it. Or 3 degrees less. I remember the 2016 game 1. Which was literally the same game with a similar vibe to the first inning and the sixth. Edwin hit a 400 foot flyball off the wall and Donaldson couldn't score from first. That ball a bit higher different game. Lindor hit's his flyball a bit farther in the 6th. So much of this s*** is just the hard hit ball finding or not finding the glove. Or a couple of balls hit at slightly different launch angles decides it.

Crazy that the last 3 ALCS openers the Jays have been played in have been the exact same game. THE EXACT SAME GAME. The most inspirational team fans have seen in a generation gets a good matchup and the offense is dickless, lifeless, useless and drains all the energy and good vibes. October 16th 2015 -5-0 Royals. 3 hits. After bat flip game. Well maybe they were tired after inspirational bat flip. Well Seattle wasn't tired after 15 inning crazy game. Oct 14th 2016 - 2-0 Indians This after 4 days off to line everything up. Lindor homer in 6th. Oct 12th 2025 3-1 Mariners. Big Dumber #62. Big Dumper always kills the Jays. Game 1 of the ALCS is always the same. Maybe all of life and the Universe is just a lazy simulation designed to inflect maximum pain and just repeats the patterns. What will today bring?

I predicted Vlad would get released by the Blue Jays but win multiple triple crowns with the Red Sox. I think I predicted he'd he .350 54 140 or something for the Red Sox after getting released by the Blue Jays. At the time he had a 0.2 WAR in August of 2023 or something. There also seems to have been a time when he had a 60% ground ball rate after 100 PAs (in 2020 I think). I learned all this from the 'Send Vlad to Indy Ball' thread which I did not bump because such a monstrosity should remain hidden from this new and better version of the message board. I think I always believed in Vlad but not the Shatkins high (a.k.a. low) performance team. I apologize to Mark Shapiro, Ross Atkins, the Blue Jays high (not low) performance team and any other employees of Rogers Communications that I may have insulted. I believe the high (not low) performance team has been focused on getting the most out of Ernie Clement and Nate Lukes and their 3rd percentile exit velocities and have only recently moved on to getting the most out of Vlad and his 99th percentile exit velocities. Based on what they did with Ernie Vlad will be getting many triple crowns and even sextuple crowns (runs, rbis, hrs, avg, obp, and slg). Sorry to all I insulted, and also sorry to Vlad that I implied you would get released, but even when I said you would get released I also said you'd get a triple crown the next year for Boston.

Vlad might be ... a bit better through age 26? I think comparison with Cabrera is similar. And they all crush Ortiz through age 26 of course because he was a mediocre platoon player for the Twins. The 30 point drop in batting average between 1996 and 2025 makes stat-lines look so much different.

I asked Chat to translate Vlad's stats to 90s levels. Looks like a decent approximation but haven't checked it over deeply. In wRC+ and fWAR he his close to Manny through age 26 and that seems wrong at first glance of stats, but adjusting stats to 90s levels makes Vlad look awesome. Got it — here’s Vlad Jr’s stats adjusted to 1990s levels (AVG + .015, OBP + .020, SLG × 1.10, HR × 1.20, RBI × 1.20). Year AVG HR RBI OBP SLG 2019 .287 18 83 .359 .476 2020 .277 11 42 .349 .508 2021 .326 58 138 .421 .661 2022 .289 38 114 .359 .528 2023 .279 31 113 .365 .489 2024 .338 36 124 .416 .598 2025 .307 28 101 .383 .535