Matthew Creally

Every year, only eight of MLB's 30 teams earn the luxury of being able to live fully in the present with gamedays still on the calendar by the first weekend of October. In 2026, the Toronto Blue Jays are not one of them. It was an earlier start to their offseason than anyone expected, but the work that happens in their baseball operations department at this time of year, even though most of us won't see it, will have a prolonged impact on their goal to return to the postseason. Of course, the biggest moves of the winter can seem insignificant by the end of the following year. In 2025, the Jays won the pennant despite a virtually non-existent showing from free agent acquisition Anthony Santander. The next offseason saw them sign Dylan Cease, Kazuma Okamoto, and Tyler Rogers in free agency, all of whom surpassed expectations but still weren't enough to prevent the team from finishing in last place. Still, this isn't a front office known for standing pat. Here are the components of the Blue Jays' financial situation that truly matter. Where They Stand According to RosterResource, the Blue Jays finished 2026 with a projected cash payroll of $283.96M. For luxury tax purposes, their payroll was about $30M higher. Their 2026 luxury tax payroll was the fifth-highest in the league, behind the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Phillies, in that order. Now to address the hopefully-smaller-than-162-games-sized elephant in the room: the expiration of the CBA. There might not be a luxury tax next year, but we aren't yet far enough in negotiations between the players and owners to know for sure. For simplicity's sake, let's say for now that the current luxury tax system will continue into next year. In 2022, the first season of the now-expiring CBA, the first luxury tax threshold was $230M. With each passing season, that number increased by either $3M or $4M. Using a linear forecast based on the past five years, the current $244M mark would increase to $248M. There are three other thresholds beyond the first one that came in $20M increments this year, all the way up to $304M, with increasingly stiffer penalties for surpassing each one. At $314.69M, the Blue Jays' payroll checks in about $10M above the highest threshold. If you've heard the way some other big market owners talk about the luxury tax in recent years, the fact that the Jays are well over its fourth line might worry you. Remember how Hal Steinbrenner tried to convince people that he couldn't keep spending this much money on the Yankees? Thankfully, team president and CEO Mark Shapiro revealed in his season-ending press conference last week that the Jays' willingness to spend isn't changing, telling reporters his "expectation is we'll be in a similar area of support and resources." Take all this with the usual caveat that a harder cap could come into play next year and render all this outdated, but their absence from the 2026 postseason doesn't mean that payroll cuts are on the way. This team should remain one of the league's biggest spenders. Money Coming Off the Books The Blue Jays have more than their fair share of veterans on expiring contracts even after trading Kevin Gausman and Daulton Varsho at the deadline. It's not a foregone conclusion that all of them will leave. Shane Bieber has spoken about how he'd embrace the opportunity to return. Max Scherzer seems far too competitive to retire before he gets one more shot at a championship. In the case of Jameson Taillon and Paul Sewald, who were acquired midseason, it's also important to remember the Jays didn't have to pay their entire 2026 salaries because they began the year with other teams. Still, the amount of money they spent on pending free agents would be enough to take them below the first luxury tax threshold and then some. Player 2026 Salary Paid by TOR George Springer $24,166,667 Kevin Gausman $16,112,299 Shane Bieber $16,000,000 Jeff Hoffman $8,614,706 Daulton Varsho $7,588,235 Yimi García $7,500,000 Jesús Sánchez $6,327,273 Max Scherzer $3,000,000 Eric Lauer $1,270,588 Patrick Corbin $1,000,000 Luis Urías $733,690 Tyler Heineman $562,500 Jameson Taillon $433,583 Paul Sewald $368,984 Total $93,678,525 The total above does not include Myles Straw's $8M club option for next year. If the Blue Jays decline to exercise it, he will become a free agent as well, but they'll be hit with a $1.75M buyout. In effect, declining Straw's option will free up an additional $6.25M for the Blue Jays. It also doesn't include the $2M in incentives Max Scherzer earned on top of his $3M base salary for pitching 75 innings this past season. Money Coming Onto the Books 8.3%. That's the portion of the Blue Jays' payroll committed to players who are not yet eligible for free agency, the second-lowest mark in baseball ahead of only the Atlanta Braves. They've already committed $238M toward their 2027 payroll, fourth-most in MLB. Still, there are guys who will need raises before spring training, most notably Louis Varland and Ernie Clement. Players entering their second year of arbitration eligibility are a year closer to free agency. Two public contract resources, Spotrac and MLB Trade Rumors, have released 2027 salary projections for this group of players. I'll be averaging those out. Player Status 2026 Salary Paid by TOR 2027 proj. Salary (Spotrac) 2027 proj. Salary (MLBTR) 2027 proj. Salary (average) Diff. '27 proj. vs '26 Ernie Clement Arb 2 $4,600,000 $7,600,000 $7,600,000 $7,600,000 $3,000,000 José Soriano Arb 2 $852,941 $6,600,000 $5,600,000 $6,100,000 $5,247,059 Josh Smith Arb 2 $948,529 $3,800,000 $3,700,000 $3,750,000 $2,801,471 Louis Varland Arb 1 $821,500 $3,000,000 $3,800,000 $3,400,000 $2,578,500 Nathan Lukes Arb 1 $808,500 $2,900,000 $2,100,000 $2,500,000 $1,691,500 Spencer Arrighetti Arb 1 $797,300 $1,500,000 $1,900,000 $1,700,000 $902,700 Davis Schneider Arb 1 $813,500 $1,250,000 $1,300,000 $1,275,000 $461,500 Bowden Francis Arb 1 $809,800 $1,000,000 $1,300,000 $1,150,000 $340,200 Total $10,452,070 $27,650,000 $27,300,000 $27,475,000 $17,022,930 The total above does not include players who are still not yet eligible for arbitration, such as Trey Yesavage and Addison Barger, but guys like that haven't accrued enough service time to get significant raises just yet. Clement is forecasted by both Spotrac and MLBTR to make the most money of anyone on the team in the arbitration pool, as he went from a utility guy to missing only nine games since the start of 2025, although GM Ross Atkins was noncommittal about him being an everyday player next season. Another element not considered above is the increase in salary that was previously agreed upon for players with guaranteed contracts, and there are a lot of those on the way. Since luxury tax payrolls are calculated using average annual values instead of current-year salaries, the changes below will allow the Blue Jays to move further away from the threshold in 2027 despite paying some of their core guys more money. Dylan Cease's base salary is $8M higher in 2027 than it was in 2026, so he'll make a little over $33M next year when factoring in his signing bonus. The extension Andrés Giménez signed with Cleveland in 2023 was heavily backloaded; his total earnings will increase from $15.57M this past year to $23.57M per year from 2027 through 2029. José Berríos's earnings will increase from $18.71M to $24.71M for the final two years of his deal. Kazuma Okamoto only took home $7M in 2026 (with a $5M signing bonus), but that'll go up to $16M each year from 2027-29. Cody Ponce's contract had a similar stipulation: $5M earnings (with a $3M signing bonus) in 2026, then $11M from 2027-28. Tyler Rogers is also in the same boat. He made $7M plus a $5M signing bonus this past year. His salary will rise to $12M next year and in 2028 before his vesting option will determine his 2029 status. Finally, Alejandro Kirk's earnings will increase by $3.625M from this season for the final four years of his recent extension. How Much Can the Blue Jays Spend? I mentioned earlier that Roster Resource estimated the Blue Jays have already committed $238M to their 2027 cash payroll, a number that does not account for the inevitable raises that players under team control will be receiving. Their estimated luxury tax payroll, though, is below that amount thanks to all the back-loaded deals listed above. Once the arb guys' salaries are determined for next year, their cash payroll should rise to somewhere between $255-$260M, with the luxury tax payroll coming in at, ironically, roughly $238M. Category Dollars Change to 2026 Luxury Tax Payroll ($314.69M) Pending Free Agents $93,678,525 $221,012,504 Raises for Arb-Eligible Players $17,022,930 $238,035,434 Using our previous forecast of next year's hypothetical luxury tax boundaries, the fourth threshold would increase to $308M. If ownership is fine with exceeding that mark like they did this year, we could see the Blue Jays spend in excess of $70M this offseason via free agency/trade. In the event they try to duck below that fourth threshold to avoid a stiff competitive balance penalty, an additional $65M in payroll would likely be the most we can expect from this coming winter (again with the caveat that a salary cap could come in and screw all of this up). What does that mean? Well, $70M is significant! The Blue Jays have already been linked to Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki who, due to the surging cost of good right-handed hitting and the weak class of position player free agents, is likely to command an AAV somewhere in the $30M-$35M range. There's also plenty of early chatter about another free agent coming to Toronto from overseas. Ben Nicholson-Smith mentioned the team will likely be interested in 27-year-old Japanese 3B/OF Teruaki Sato. In his past three seasons in Japan's NPB, Sato has recorded a wRC+ of 202, 182, and 134, respectively. By comparison, Kazuma Okamoto was at 210, 161, and 180 in his final three seasons in Japan, although the 210 wRC+ came in an injury-shortened platform year. Okamoto is three years older than Sato, who seems to offer a little more positional flexibility. Okamoto signed for an AAV of $15M, so it's reasonable to suggest Sato will command around $20M. Even if the Blue Jays decide they're no longer comfortable exceeding the fourth luxury tax threshold, a world where they sign both Suzuki and Sato seems quite plausible. Their combined AAVs are unlikely to exceed $70M. What a sudden luxury tax mandate from Rogers would do is add to the difficulty of signing three marquee free agents. There hasn't been much serious chatter in the rumour mill surrounding the Blue Jays and Tarik Skubal as of yet, but let's say the Blue Jays try their best to land Suzuki and Sato and then talk themselves into seriously pursuing Skubal. Combined, the AAVs of those two and Skubal could touch $100M. A far-fetched hypothetical world where they sign all three could result in their 2027 payroll surpassing the Yankees, who currently have $253M in cash commitments for next year, to Toronto's $238M. The Blue Jays have an ownership group that has shown a recent willingness to blow past the luxury tax, and they're about to gain some wiggle room on that front. A salary cap would hurt them more than most teams. It looks like Rogers is willing to sustain their current financial commitment to this roster, and the fact that they could still be in play for two marquee free agents even if they walk back on that is a scenario that fans of most other teams can only dream of. If they keep their foot on the gas, Toronto's recent trend toward becoming one of the game's true financial behemoths will only accelerate. There's no denying that some of the more expensive decisions made by the Shapiro & Atkins regime have backfired to some extent, leading to some trouble spots on the Blue Jays' payroll. It's only two years in, but the Santander deal looks like a dud. Berríos's contract isn't up until the end of the 2028 season. Giménez is the best defensive shortstop in baseball, but he probably isn't worth the $23.5M he'll be making over the next three seasons. Yariel Rodriguez is owed $8M next year and $6M in 2028 even though he's been DFA'd twice. Still, all indications point toward them being flexible enough to make multiple significant additions to the roster over the next few months, but that'll all have to wait until the worst of these labour negotiations pass. Author's note: Thank you to Leo Morgenstern for assisting with some of the key details in this article! View full article

The Blue Jays will be watching the postseason festivities from afar in 2026, but that isn't any fault of the pitching staff. They were extremely clutch on many occasions throughout the year, led on most nights by Louis Varland, whose +4.7 WPA placed third among all pitchers in baseball. Despite constantly being tested by injury (Toronto led MLB in total reliever appearances by a long shot), the team had the ninth-best pitching WPA in the league. Here are the plays that stood out the most. 5. Brendon Little: Ezequiel Tovar Force Out, Top 10, 4/1 (+27.8% WPA) Brendon Little would wind up salvaging his season down the stretch, with a 2.28 ERA, 3.48 FIP, and a K-BB% of 18% after the All-Star break. His first half was very difficult, as he spent most of it in the minors, but he did get a huge out in the top of the 10th to keep things close in the second series of the season against the Rockies. With Colorado threatening to add some insurance, he got Ezequiel Tovar to bounce a first-pitch curveball right to Kazuma Okamoto at third, who threw to second to end the inning. 4. Braydon Fisher: Jose Altuve Groundout, Top 10, 6/23 (+29.0% WPA) This was a game that, had the Blue Jays won, would've put them over .500 for the first time since the first week of April. They wound up losing one inning after this play and wouldn't clear the .500 mark again until early September. Still, Braydon Fisher did everything in his power to get them there, working a clean and efficient top of the 10th to give the offense a chance. Jose Altuve was on the hunt for his fourth hit of the game, but with the go-ahead run 90 feet away, his chopper to short ended the threat. 3. Louis Varland: Connor Norby Strikeout Double Play, Top 8, 5/27 (+29.4% WPA) The Marlins were aggressive on the bases in this one, attempting nine steals throughout the afternoon. With a full count, one out, and men on the corners in a one-run game in the top of the eighth, they tried a bold set play to get the tying run home by inducing a throw to second. However, Connor Norby took a high curveball for strike three, and in one of Tyler Heineman's final big moments as a Blue Jay, he fired a cannon to Ernie Clement, catching Jakob Marsee dead to rights and getting his guys off the field. 2. Braydon Fisher: Luis Arraez FIDP, Bot 11, 8/9 (+33.7% WPA) With all due respect to Fisher – who did great work along with the rest of the bullpen this whole series that saw two games go to extras and the other remain in the balance until the final out of the ninth – this play will always be remembered for Nathan Lukes's unbelievable throw. Luis Arraez thought he had a walk-off sac fly, but Lukes unleashed a one-hop strike to Alejandro Kirk at the plate, retiring Garrett Stubbs and sending the game to the 12th. For the second straight year, Lukes was excellent in right field. His throwing arm alone saved the Blue Jays six runs according to Statcast, placing him in the 98th percentile. 1. Louis Varland: Nolan Schanuel GIDP, Bot 9, 4/21 (+34.0% WPA) Jeff Hoffman couldn't slam the door in this one, so Louis Varland was summoned to face Nolan Schanuel with the bases loaded and one out. Even though the Angels were down by two, Schanuel could have won them this game without leaving the yard. Instead, Varland got him to ground into a double play on the first pitch. This remains one of the most decisive rally-killers in Blue Jays history and perfectly encapsulates the otherworldly season that Varland enjoyed. View full article

It was undoubtedly a year to forget for most of the position players on this roster. The monster innings, big hits with runners in scoring position, and ferocious comebacks that the fanbase had grown accustomed to over the previous year all vanished to the detriment of the Blue Jays' chances of defending their American League title, but that's not to say there weren't bright spots. Kazuma Okamoto set a home run record for a Japanese rookie. Alejandro Kirk looked like his best self for most of the second half. Brett Bateman hit for a 151 wRC+ in September. Here were the most pivotal swings of the season for an offense that's hoping to bounce back in 2027. 5. Nathan Lukes: 2-Run HR, Bot 8, 6/28 (+39.3% WPA) At this point, the Jays were in the midst of an extended late-June swoon, succumbing to a losing streak that would become the first signal they were letting the season slip away. Just about the only life they showed at any instance in their series against Texas was this blast by Nathan Lukes, putting them on the board in the eighth and tying the game in the process. Lukes got a slider from Cole Winn that stayed on the corner down and in, a spot that so many lefties seem to love when it comes to breaking balls. 4. Alejandro Kirk: Solo HR, Bot 9, 3/28 (+47.7% WPA) Opening weekend was filled with so many memorable moments for this team, and Captain Kirk's game-tying missile in the bottom of the ninth of the middle game of that series sat near the top of the WPA leaderboard all year. Michael Kelly left a slider right over the middle of the plate, and Kirk drilled it over the wall, over the Toronto bullpen, and into the seats in left field, tying the score in a game the Jays trailed 6-2 in the seventh. Ernie Clement would win it with a single in the 11th. 3. Nathan Lukes: 2-Run HR, Top 11, 8/8 (+48.5% WPA) Between this go-ahead homer with two outs in the 11th, his game-saving outfield assist a day later, and his home run against the Rangers, Nathan Lukes had a flair for the dramatic in 2026. In fact, August 8 may well have been the Nathan Lukes Game. In the ninth, he made an impressive running grab in foul territory, avoiding a collision with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to record a huge out. Earlier in the evening, he had laid out for a sensational diving catch to end the fifth inning. Safe to say that Phillies fans were happy to not have to see him anymore after that weekend. 2. Kazuma Okamoto: 3-Run HR, Bot 8, 9/14 (+57.1% WPA) This home run elicits such conflicting emotions. On one hand, blowing the game after such a monumental swing in the middle of a playoff race is the type of misstep most teams don't recover from, and the Blue Jays certainly didn't. On the other, what a moment for Kazuma Okamoto. It felt like the first homer that truly had the potential to change the season for this team, a true no-doubter that electrified the crowd right away. Had Detroit lost, Kyle Finnegan would've wondered why he put an 0-2 fastball in that spot for a long time to come. Okamoto deserved to play in the postseason this year. Hopefully we'll see that in 2027. 1. Daulton Varsho: Walk-Off Grand Slam, Bot 10, 5/13 (+68.4% WPA) Ultimately, the now-departed Daulton Varsho's offensive struggles this year eventually overshadowed this moment, but in any discussion about clutch plays, it's hard to beat a walk-off slam. I mentioned this when I first wrote about this homer, but baseball can be an eerily symmetric sport sometimes. As it happens, Varsho also had the Jays' biggest regular season hit in 2025. That one was also a go-ahead multi-run homer against the Rays in the late innings at the Rogers Centre. That one also came with two outs and was similarly impactful in terms of win probability added (67.9%). Craziest of all: It also happened on May 13, exactly one year before this grand slam! How about that? View full article

Welcome to Shape of the Blue Jays, my column where I dig into Statcast numbers to analyze recent pitch shape and swing shape trends for Toronto Blue Jays players and discuss how they have impacted their performance. Click here to read the last edition. All stats entering September 24, 2026, unless otherwise stated. Quick Hits: José Rodríguez The 6-foot-6 righty with one of the more closed windups you'll ever see was optioned to the spring training complex on Wednesday night in favour of fresh arms for the second game of the Jays' doubleheader in Baltimore, but I like him as a sleeper to make next year's roster out of camp. In his first 4.2 big-league innings, he has struck out five without giving up an earned run or a walk. His devastating high-80s kick changeup, 97-mph bowling ball sinker, 98-mph running four-seamer, and mid-high-80s gyro slider all have whiff rates of at least 33% in the handful of MLB appearances he's made so far. His command will need some work. His walk rate was 14%, and his overall in-zone rate was 42% at Triple A this season. However, the stuff is intriguing, and guys with unorthodox release traits have become a calling card for the organization. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The Jays are officially eliminated from playoff contention, and I'm sure we'll soon get a piece from one of the team's credentialed reporters that tells us more about what really happened to #27 this year. Until then, though, I'll try to sum it up as quickly as I can now that we know the season-saving hot stretch isn't going to happen: He didn't hit the ball nearly as hard because he chased far too much. The story is the same as it's been for a while now. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Baseball Savant Percentiles Comparison, 2025 vs 2026 Keegan Matheson's recent story in the wake of the PR nightmare Guerrero recently stirred up with comments about his contract contains quotes from John Schneider vouching for his first baseman's willingness to try new things as he struggled. I'd argue he wasn't experimental enough in the box. Breaking his season down by month, there were hardly any on-the-fly changes to Guerrero's stance with respect to his depth in the box, the distance he stood from the plate, and the space between his feet. Comfortability matters in the box, and these kinds of adjustments don't always come easily once the season is underway. The number of times Guerrero had to sit a day or two with back tightness, especially down the stretch, leads me to believe he was playing through something worse than anyone let on. Still, in retrospect, more radical attempts at snapping out of it might not have been the worst idea. Lately, I've found myself looking across at the National League at the San Diego Padres. The Jays and Padres met in the last series before the All-Star break in not too dissimilar a position. Since then, the Friars have a 40-22 record, third-best in MLB and more than enough to qualify for the postseason. A big reason why is Fernando Tatis Jr., who is running a 171 wRC+ in that span after going homer-less for the first two months of the year. He opened his stance considerably and largely cut out his pre-load hand movement beginning in June, a couple things we didn't see from Guerrero at all. I'm the farthest thing from a hitting coach, but it's easy to wonder what could've been. Ernie Clement I feel for Clement, whose OPS since the trade deadline begins with a 4. I tend to agree with the train of thought that he needs this offseason more than anyone else as a career utilityman who suddenly played seven straight months of baseball before a very short winter followed by 155 more games and counting. His regression on the defensive side supports that theory. The complete lack of slug from this lineup isn't his fault, as he's never been a power hitter, but that doesn't mean he's immune from chasing more either. A mid-40s chase rate probably exceeds the acceptable ceiling for a productive MLB hitter. Ernie Clement Baseball Savant Percentiles Comparison, 2025 vs 2026 There's still a spot for Clement on this roster. I'd be totally fine with him platooning with Josh Smith, taking a greater share of his at-bats against lefties, getting more off days and some more time at different positions. Ultimately, he did little to suggest he should be an everyday hitter for a contending team moving forward, so the Blue Jays will have some hitters on their wish list this offseason. Speaking of... An Early Offseason Target? The 2026 Jays featured one of the worst offenses in the franchise's 50-year history, and as with their first baseman, it mostly boils down to a lack of discipline and slug. Luckily, there should be a cost-effective option on the free agent market that would fit like a glove on any team with those issues. Only two players in the entire league placed in the 90th percentile or better in both bat speed and chase rate this season. One of them, James Wood, is a cornerstone outfielder for the Washington Nationals and won't be on the block anytime soon. What about the other? Jake Bauers is hitting free agency for the first time this offseason. He's going to be cheaper than most others with his tools because he's relatively unproven and doesn't really have a position, being a defensive liability at first base and the corner outfield spots. The case against signing him is the existence of Anthony Santander, but the first two years of his contract have shown we can't assume he'll be ready to contribute. Bauers has been good enough offensively to be a full-time DH this year and hasn't had a problem with left-handed pitching despite being a lefty hitter, which Jesús Sánchez could never lay claim to even in the best of times. I'd love to see this sort of profile in Toronto's lineup in 2027, lockout permitting. View full article

Welcome to Shape of the Blue Jays, my column where I dig into Statcast numbers to analyze recent pitch shape and swing shape trends for Toronto Blue Jays players and discuss how they have impacted their performance. Click here to read the last edition. All stats entering September 17, 2026, unless otherwise stated. Quick Hits: Trey Yesavage On Tuesday, Yesavage made his first rehab start since suffering a meniscus injury on August 4 in Houston, taking the hill for the Buffalo Bisons. The results weren't inspiring (0.2 IP, 2 R, 1 ER, 2 H, 0 K, 1 BB). The key physical indicators, though, were good, and that's what matters in rehab starts. Yesavage was lifted after 34 pitches, 20 of which were fastballs. The heater averaged 93 mph with 18.1" of iVB. Both are down from his MLB averages this year (94.3 mph, 19.5" iVB), but that isn't entirely surprising after just one rehab start. With the injury being a lower body one, I was curious to see how his extension would be affected. Yesavage isn't a big extension guy, as his release height makes his delivery enough of an outlier as is. He averaged 6.2 feet of extension in the majors this year. That was only slightly down to 6.1 feet on the 20 fastballs he threw. Ultimately, the knee didn't seem to have a notable effect on him. He's currently slated for a return on either Sunday or Monday, yet another incentive for the Jays to keep their heads above water for just a little bit longer. Brendan Cellucci The 28-year-old lefty was fantastic in his first big league outing, drawing into the bullpen game on Tuesday that would later go awry through no fault of his own (1.2 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 3 K, 0 BB). He has a four-seamer, a two-seamer, and two distinct slider shapes: One resembles a true bullet/gyro shape in the mid-80s, but the moneymaker is the sweeper, which he threw 44% of the time. Both stuff models at FanGraphs approve of the offering, as does mine (keep in mind that the two FanGraphs scores include the three gyro sliders he threw): Brendan Cellucci Sweeper Pitch Modeling, 9/15 Model Score Stuff+ (FG) 119 PitchingBot, 20-80 57 My Model, 20-80 73 It is a hard, high-lift, high-break monster. 83.8 mph is fast as far as sweepers are concerned, and it averaged 6.6" of iVB and 15.3" of glove-side action. That's more glove-side than the average sweeper gets despite Cellucci's 40° arm angle. Most pitchers who throw sweepers have lower arm angles, but not only does Cellucci manage, he gets a lot of horizontal movement on it. You might think the break patterns mean he has a unique talent for spinning the ball, but the pitch only averaged just over 2400 rpm on Tuesday. It's a seam-shifted wake sweeper: The direction of its break doesn't match what we'd expect based on the direction it spins. Brett Bateman Remarkably, Bateman has accrued 1.6 fWAR since getting traded to the Blue Jays, higher than any other position player traded at the deadline. He even hit his first big league homer last Friday against Baltimore and then promptly homered again the next day, a pleasant surprise for someone who hit six long balls in 317 career minor league games. He has a 138 wRC+ with Toronto. Six weeks ago, he looked merely like an option in the outfield, but his performance suggests he could be their center fielder of the future. He certainly has the tools for it. Highly regarded for his speed and defense at the minor league level, he's been worth 3 outs above average in the majors so far. His arm strength places in the 95th percentile among MLB fielders, and his sprint speed isn't far behind in the 84th percentile. In fact, he's one of just 20 players in MLB this season in the 90th percentile or better for arm strength and the 80th percentile or better for sprint speed. I'll be watching his bat carefully over these last few series. He's running a .419 BABIP and a wOBA 62 points higher than expectation. He's fast and pounds the ball on the ground a lot, usually a good recipe for a high BABIP, but .419 is quite the outlier. Louis Varland It's the middle of September and Varland's ERA is still under 1.50, he has 34 saves, and he's amassed 3.0 fWAR. It's arguably the best season a reliever has had in franchise history and may be the primary reason the Blue Jays haven't been eliminated from playoff contention yet. An uncommon wrinkle surfaced on Monday night, however, when he failed to complete a five-out save with multiple relievers not available in a one-run game against the Tigers. He took the loss after the go-ahead run scored when he dropped a throw from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. while covering first. Was it a good throw? Yes. Should he have caught it? Definitely! But, I can't help but feel the offense is indirectly to blame for his performance. The eventual winning run reached base via walk, and Varland's been walking more batters than usual lately. It came back to bite him during the loss he took in Sacramento last week too. His walk rate is at 12.1% this month, into the double-digits for the first month all season. To me, this is a sign of tiring. Throughout the year, maybe he could've been spared from pitching if the Jays had opened up greater leads a few more times? It's been an extremely busy season, right after an extremely busy postseason, for Varland. Maybe I'm struggling to blame him for his role in Monday's loss because of how outstanding he's been, but it's why I've harped on the fact that winning low-scoring games is unsustainable: A tired bullpen will often reveal itself come September, and it would be a shame if this uber-talented group of relievers didn't get a shot at the postseason. View full article

As if things couldn't get any more demoralizing after a series loss in Sacramento last week, the Jays opened their crucial weekend set against the Orioles with another loss that was never particularly close. Yet, here they stand, back to .500 after winning on Saturday and Sunday to end the week on a positive note. They hit five home runs across those two games, including Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s first at the Rogers Centre since Game 6 of last year's ALCS. Entering Monday, they're a game back of the Guardians for the final Wild Card spot, tiebreaker in hand with 12 games to go. Pitching 3. Dylan Cease: Samuel Basallo Strikeout, Top 1, 9/13 (+7.4% WPA) The Blue Jays' ace had to pull off quite the tightrope act to escape the 1st inning on Sunday after loading the bases with nobody out. Naturally, he struck out the next three hitters and kept the game scoreless. By WPA, the most significant of these punchouts was Basallo's because it resulted in the second out of the inning, making it impossible for the next batter to make an out and still drive in a run. 2. Louis Varland: Jonah Heim Lineout, Bot 9, 9/7 (+9.6% WPA) Last Monday night at Sutter Health Park was about the most human Varland has looked in his spectacular 2026 season. What made the Athletics' eventual walk-off win especially painful for the Jays was the fact that Varland, despite walking the number seven hitter and allowing four players to reach during the inning, was just one out away from sending the game to extras after Heim tagged this changeup straight into the glove of Brett Bateman in center field. 1. Louis Varland: Alika Williams Bunt Force Out, Bot 9, 9/7 (+9.6% WPA) It's not like everything went exactly how the A's drew it up on Monday either. With the first two men on base, Williams tried to bunt the winning run over to third, but he put just a little too much on it, and Guerrero was ready, charging in from first and firing a cannon to force Darell Hernaiz at third. For how much of a struggle it's been with the bat, Guerrero has easily had the best season of his career defensively. Hitting 3. George Springer: Solo HR, Bot 5, 9/13 (+15.6% WPA) With nobody on and two outs in the bottom of the fifth, it was Springer who started the dinger parade with the first of three consecutive home runs the Blue Jays would hit off Trevor Rogers. Behind in the count 1-0, Rogers tried to drop a changeup on the lower outside corner but left it a tad high. Springer stayed on it, getting just enough of it to send it into Baltimore's bullpen in right field. 2. Andrés Giménez: RBI Double, Top 7, 9/7 (+21.2% WPA) Before anything that happened in the bottom of the ninth was possible last Monday, the Blue Jays nearly mounted a remarkable comeback thanks almost entirely to Giménez, who continues to deliver in high-leverage despite poor offensive stats overall. With Jacob Lopez nearing the end of the line, Giménez, the tying run, stayed on a two-strike fastball from the lefty and sent it on a line into the opposite-field corner to score Nathan Lukes. 1. Andrés Giménez: Solo HR, Top 9, 9/7 (+35.3% WPA) Had the Jays completed the comeback, Giménez's effort would've been talked about a lot more. Both of his pivotal extra-base hits in the later innings came against lefty pitching. On for the save, Hogan Harris threw a slow, looping curveball that stayed on the corner down and in, playing right into Giménez's bat path. The shortstop launched it beyond the bullpens in right-center field, and even though it was quickly rendered moot, he became an unlikely hero by making the game close. View full article

Welcome to Shape of the Blue Jays, my column where I dig into Statcast numbers to analyze recent pitch shape and swing shape trends for Toronto Blue Jays players and discuss how they have impacted their performance. Click here to read the last edition. All stats entering September 10, 2026, unless otherwise stated. Quick Hits: Dubious History It has not been a banner year offensively for the Blue Jays. In Wednesday afternoon's rubber match against the Athletics, they became just the second visiting team to get shut out at the hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park in 2026. Starting on the mound for the A's was right-hander Brady Basso, a reliever by trade. It was his 23rd appearance of the season, but only his fifth start. Entering Wednesday, he had completed three innings in a single game just once this season, and as a starter, he hadn't gone longer than 2.1 IP since 2024. He threw four shutout innings against the Jays, striking out four. The 2026 Blue Jays are now averaging 4.0 runs per game. That would be the sixth-worst single-season mark in their 50-year history, according to Stathead. The only five years in which they were worse than that all occurred between 1977 and 1981, the first five seasons of their existence. Their highest winning percentage in that timespan was .414 in 1980 (67-95 record). Remarkably, they still have a shot at the playoffs thanks to their pitching, but there's no sugarcoating how limited their potential seems to be, and how hard it is to watch, when this is how they hit. Josh Smith The Blue Jays knew they weren't getting a power bat when they traded for Josh Smith, or so they thought. Through 21 games with his new team, he's hitting for a 173 wRC+ with five homers and a .366 ISO. That won't last forever, but the surprising production has helped offset the 31.4% K rate he's posted with Toronto. By no means is he a high-bat-speed guy, but in August, 15.8% of his batted balls were barrels, the highest single-month barrel rate of his career. His barrel rate is 11.1% for the month of September so far. If that holds, it would be his first time with a barrel rate of 10% or higher in consecutive months. This is mostly the result of an apparent effort to lift and pull the ball more often. When he's at his best, Smith's true calling cards at the plate are contact ability, discipline, and efficient contact (i.e., a high squared-up rate). His pull-air rate was high in his best seasons, but in 2026, including his time with the Rangers, his attack angle is up to 13° (+4° year-over-year), and his attack direction is 6° toward the pull side (+4° pull YOY). Since coming to the Jays, his swing tilt has slightly increased as well. The intent of going back to being a pull-air guy is paying off. José Soriano It seemed inevitable that José Soriano would throw fewer four-seamers after getting traded to the Blue Jays, and that's exactly what happened. The trend continued on Tuesday night, when he threw his sinker 49.4% of the time in his start against the A's (7 IP, 2 R, 6 H, 3 K, 1 BB). That's a new single-game high, eclipsing the previous mark he set last month in a home start against the Red Sox. He threw it a whopping 70.4% of the time on the first pitch. The gap between his sinker and the rest of his pitches on the chart above starts to widen almost exactly at the start of his Jays tenure. The logic of throwing a ton of first-pitch sinkers is sound; it's his best shot at throwing a strike with a shape that isn't as vulnerable to damage. Public stuff models have mixed opinions about whether his sinker is that much better than his four-seamer, but opponents are slugging .512 (.509 xSLG) on the four-seamer compared to .358 (.427 xSLG) on the sinker, the latter of which has a 66.3% groundball rate. Odds are that a first-pitch sinker from Soriano is either going to be a called strike or beaten into the ground, which seems like a good strategy with Toronto's infield defense. That's how you go deep into games. Kazuma Okamoto Kazuma Okamoto crushed his 30th home run of the season in Sacramento this week, becoming the first (and he will be the only) Blue Jay to reach that milestone in 2026. He's now sitting at a 111 wRC+ in his first year as a big leaguer, outperforming the contract he signed in January. His hit tool has been more fringy than expected, leading to some whiplash-inducing ups and downs throughout the year, but the power has made up for that. There isn't much to complain about in terms of the overall results. Among all hitters with at least 200 batted balls this season, Okamoto's 28.4% pull-air rate ranks inside the top 20. At the same time, nearly a third of his homers have landed on the right side of straightaway center. I'm impressed by the fact that his swing tilt has steadily increased with each passing month. For one, tilt is tough to adjust year-over-year, let alone in-season. High-tilt guys are also usually exploitable with high fastballs, but despite a 30% whiff rate on four-seamers, Okamoto is hitting .288 and slugging .554 against the pitch (+15 RV). Unless he goes through a colossal slump in the final weeks, his rookie season should go down in the minds of fans as a relative success. View full article

This past week ended with a dud for the Blue Jays, but they're once again improving their standing after consecutive series wins in Cleveland and Kansas City. For 24 hours, they were finally above .500 for the first time since April 3, and even after Sunday's loss, they're just a game back of a playoff spot. According to Baseball Reference, no team has improved their playoff odds more in the past 30 days. Pitching 3. Dylan Cease: Jo Adell GIDP, Bot 1, 9/2 (+8.6% WPA) The Guardians threatened immediately after the Jays took the early lead last Wednesday. With two strikes on Jo Adell, another punchout would've been a good outcome for Dylan Cease, who has had no trouble racking up the K's this season. Instead, he got an even better result by getting Adell to roll over a low fastball for the inning-ending double play. This ended up being one of the only trouble spots the Jays dealt with all night on their way to a resounding 11-0 victory. 2. Tyler Rogers: Michael Massey Groundout, Bot 8, 9/5 (+11.0% WPA) As has been the case so many times in 2026, Tyler Rogers was tasked with holding a tight lead in the eighth inning on Saturday. It was a bumpy ride, as the first two Royals reached. The tying run was just 90 feet away, and with the Jays four outs away from a crucial series win, Rogers got Michael Massey to harmlessly bounce out to first base. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. took it himself to get his team out of the inning. 1. Tyler Rogers: Vinnie Pasquantino GIDP, Bot 8, 9/5 (+27.5% WPA) The true pivotal moment in Saturday night's eighth inning happened one batter before Massey. After consecutive base hits by Nick Loftin and Salvador Perez, Rogers fell behind 1-0 to the powerful Vinnie Pasquantino. The lefty got too far on top of a sinker high in the zone and grounded it right back to Rogers, who started a 1-6-3 that changed the complexion of the inning. By WPA, this is now Rogers's most clutch play of the season and the sixth-most for Blue Jays pitchers. Hitting 3. George Springer: Angel Genao Throwing Error, Top 2, 9/2 (+14.3% WPA) This slow roller to short off the bat of George Springer should have ended things for the Jays in the top of the second, but Angel Genao airmailed Travis Bazzana at second base. Instead of Toronto failing to capitalize with the bases loaded, two runs scored as a result. This throwing error was no different from many of the ones that happen with two outs and runners on, in that the Guardians paid dearly soon after. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. followed this up by crushing a three-run homer down the left field line to break the game open early. 2. Nathan Lukes: 2-RBI Double, Top 5, 9/3 (+16.0% WPA) Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee started the fifth inning on Thursday afternoon by issuing a leadoff walk to Ernie Clement, one of the least frequent walkers in MLB. That would come back to haunt him, as Nathan Lukes came up with the bases loaded three batters later and roped a middle-away sinker up the alley in right-center. This brought home the first two of four runs the Jays would score in the inning, and they never looked back from there, winning 6-3 and clinching a crucial tiebreaker over Cleveland. 1. Kazuma Okamoto: RBI Single, Top 7, 9/5 (+19.2% WPA) Kazuma Okamoto picked a wonderful time for his first four-hit game in the major leagues. With men on the corners and two away, veteran Craig Kimbrel tried to drop a get-me-over slider in for a strike, but it backed up on him, and Okamoto was ready. He scalded it up the middle into the spacious outfield at Kauffman Stadium, and Springer scored easily. Thanks to this hit and Rogers's escape artistry in the eighth, the Jays were able to win another series. View full article

Welcome to Shape of the Blue Jays, my column where I dig into Statcast numbers to analyze recent pitch shape and swing shape trends for Toronto Blue Jays players and discuss how they have impacted their performance. Click here to read the last edition. All stats entering August 27, 2026, unless otherwise stated. Quick Hits: Bullpen Reinforcements? Daniel Guerra (RHP) is a name with some helium down on the farm. The 22-year-old Venezuelan was signed as an international free agent four summers ago. I named him one of the Jays' minor league starting pitchers of the month back in April after the promising start he had in Vancouver's rotation. Earlier this summer, Guerra was shifted to the bullpen, a move that has accelerated his path to the big leagues. Earlier this week, he was promoted to Triple-A Buffalo, facing four batters and giving up a solo homer in his debut. His jump from High A to Double A, and then a much quicker leap to Buffalo, has some wondering whether he could be in Toronto next month. Guerra is simply an imposing presence on the mound. He's 6-foot-6, 230 lbs with a high overhand release and nearly seven feet of extension in his delivery. The stuff is already MLB quality: a 98-mph cut-ride fastball, a 90-mph cutter with considerable lift and glove-side action, a no-spin 89-mph sinker with over 13" of run (impressive considering his arm angle), and a high-80s changeup to bridge the movement profiles between the four-seamer and two-seamer. That's undeniably nasty, but he was in the zone less than 30% of the time in his Bisons debut. If he can show stronger command, he could be a shot in the arm for a solid but exhausted Blue Jays bullpen, especially if they can stay in the Wild Card race into September. Chad Dallas John Schneider knew he would need quality innings in some form as the Blue Jays re-adjusted to life without Shane Bieber on Wednesday. Chad Dallas delivered, completely neutralizing the Royals en route to a shutout win for Toronto (2.2 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 4 K, 0 BB). Dallas's shapes are fun to analyze because he's an outlier in terms of his ability to get tremendous sidespin from a high release point. Since his primary pitch is a cutter and other teams know that everything moves glove-side, he hasn't been a high-whiff guy at this level, but he's done an excellent job getting hitters to chase and miss barrels. At 93 mph, his cutter velocity stands out. Opponents are hitting just .111 against it so far. The curveball, his secondary of choice against lefties, is about as 12-6 as it gets. The sweeper has plus velocity and plus horizontal break with downward vertical action, making it something of a unicorn offering, especially from his slot. On Wednesday, Dallas leaned on his cutter more against lefties, and the sweeper was his primary offering against righties as the curve took more of a tertiary role. The cutter was responsible for three of his four strikeouts, but Kansas City was completely fooled by his sweeper (five whiffs on six swings, 33% zone swing, 71% chase). I'm declaring him the King of Supination until further notice. Spencer Arrighetti We got our first glimpse of Spencer Arrighetti as a Blue Jay last Friday at Yankee Stadium (3.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 4 K, 2 BB). He's evolved into a kitchen-sink type with a low 3/4 release, but the book on him when he came over from Houston was essentially plus curveball, deceptive vertical action on the four-seamer, and iffy command. The Blue Jays clearly had a planned adjustment in mind, as he threw his sinker 23% of the time in New York, up from 11% on the year. Its specs are half-decent: low 90s velocity, 17" of tail (which makes sense given his 19° arm angle), and separation in movement from both the four-seamer and changeup. The location models hosted on FanGraphs don't like it, but when he first started toying with it in 2025, it had a 65% zone rate, highest in his arsenal. This year, its zone rate is tied for second-highest in his arsenal behind his cutter, which he has deliberately backed off of in recent years. Spencer Arrighetti Sinker, 8/21 vs NYY His best pitch stuff-wise is the curveball, which he struggles to locate. His four-seamer can play as a primary pitch in a wide arsenal, but it only started getting results once he stopped throwing it 40% of the time. I believe the Jays' thinking here is that throwing the sinker more often is a way for him to be in the zone more while allowing the four-seamer and curve to play up. Its results from this outing suggest the Yankees weren't expecting to see it as much as they did (38% chase, three whiffs on seven swings). Paul Sewald Just three seasons ago, Paul Sewald was closing games for the pennant-winning Diamondbacks. They cut him loose earlier this month. He's been the same type of pitcher for a few years now: low arm angle, low-VAA four-seamer, and a sweeper. Both his strikeout and walk rates are actually better than they were last year, but the home run ball singlehandedly ended his time with Arizona (2.47 HR/9, first-percentile barrel rate). The four-seamer (.546 SLG, .558 xSLG) was mostly at fault. Naturally, we saw more of the sweeper and less of the four-seamer in his first few outings as a Blue Jay. However, he went back to the fastball more often on Tuesday and Wednesday against the Royals. Sewald's arm angle has slowly dropped over the past few seasons, and the vertical break on his fastball has slowly fallen with it. The ballooning home run rate suggests it doesn't play middle-up in the zone like it used to, which is where he has lived with it for most of the season. On Tuesday especially, he was broadening his locations with it. He hasn't given up a homer yet in five appearances with Toronto. Paul Sewald Fastball Locations, 8/25 vs KC – hey, wait, that actually looks like a photo of Mason Fluharty... He's a flyball pitcher who was running a career-worst 17.4% HR/FB rate with the D-backs, so some of that is positive regression. However, I actually like the idea of him throwing more four-seamers out of the zone moving forward. After all, damage was the reason he got cut, and it's a lot harder to hit homers on pitches above the top rail than at the belt! View full article

Welcome to Shape of the Blue Jays, my column where I dig into Statcast numbers to analyze recent pitch shape and swing shape trends for Toronto Blue Jays players and discuss how they have impacted their performance. Click here to read the last edition. All stats entering August 21, 2026, unless otherwise stated. Quick Hits: JoJo's Journey Continues A couple of weeks ago, JoJo Parker got to celebrate his 20th birthday by getting called up to High-A Vancouver. He has started well, and the helium continued to pick up yesterday, when he went 3-for-4 with 2 doubles. In seven games with the Canadians, Parker is slashing .346/.452/.500 for a 159 wRC+. He's striking out 23% of the time, walking 13% of the time, and has stolen three bases. Perhaps even more encouraging is the fact that the underlying numbers also suggest he's continuing to see the ball well, even against tougher pitching. His strikeout rate at Single-A Dunedin was 25% in 87 games earlier this season. His contact rate in Vancouver so far is 78%, the same as in Dunedin. Parker was extremely selective in his first taste of pro ball, chasing just 23% of the time in the FSL and swinging at only 57% of pitches in the strike zone, which works out to an overall swing rate of 39%. That has increased to 52% with the Canadians. We don't have Statcast data for High A, but it's reasonable to assume he's seeing more pitches to hit and he isn't missing a beat so far. Daz Cameron Daz Cameron has seized his latest big league opportunity in his three games with the Blue Jays (4-for-11, 1 double, 1 HR). In Thursday's rubber match against the Rays, he clobbered the team's farthest home run of the season by someone other than Kazuma Okamoto, sending an Ian Seymour changeup onto one of the catwalks at Tropicana Field. He began his season in the KBO. Prior to that, he spent time with three different MLB franchises from 2020 through 2025. A fringy hit tool and high strikeout rates have kept him from being productive at this level, but he's a different hitter than he was in his last stint on this side of the Pacific. It's an incredibly small sample, but swing-and-miss has not been an issue for Cameron so far with the Blue Jays, and for a lineup that needs slug, his combination of a high-end average bat speed (74.2 mph) and a short bat path (6.8' average swing length) is very intriguing. He's also adjusted his batting stance, standing at an angle of 29° open per Statcast, compared to 15° open with Milwaukee last year. His hands are no longer tucked behind his head pre-load, and the offset between his front and back foot has widened. Daz Cameron Batting Stance, May 2025 (right) vs August 2026 (left) Shane Bieber Shane Bieber delivered an outstanding performance to help the Jays win their first series at Tropicana Field since September 2023. He tossed seven innings of one-run ball, striking out a season-high seven without issuing a walk. With 101 pitches, he topped the century mark for the first time since his Tommy John surgery. He has completed seven innings twice this season, and it happened against the Rays both times. In his previous start against the Yankees, Bieber threw his four-seamer a season-high 49% of the time. He maintained that trend against Tampa Bay. The Rays have struggled against fastballs this season, and he successfully exploited that during his first trip through the order, when he threw the pitch half the time. The second time through the order, he upped the usage on his knuckle curve (44% CSW rate in this game) and slider (three whiffs on five swings) to great effect, before leaning on the changeup the third time through (three whiffs on six swings, 50% CSW rate, 29% zone swing, 57% chase). This was vintage Bieber: pounding fastballs to start the game, putting the other team in swing mode, and making them look foolish on the secondaries later on. The stuff isn't going to wow anybody, but he was constantly a step ahead of the Rays thanks to his command and elite sequencing. Here's a fun fact: Bieber's six walks in his past four starts have still yet to surpass the total from his six-walk clunker in Washington right before the deadline. He has a 2.96 ERA and 22 strikeouts in that span (24.1 IP). Shane Bieber Swings and Misses, August 20 vs Tampa Bay (Statcast) Charles McAdoo Charles McAdoo has been a sparkplug since his return to the big leagues, hitting for a 215 wRC+ in the month of August entering Thursday. However, a dose of reality may be on its way. He's running a .343 BABIP this season, and while the hit tool has improved (leading to an above-average line drive rate), he hits the ball in the air a lot and has been susceptible to popups, making his elite speed less likely to have a positive effect on his batting average. The projection models at FanGraphs are unanimously predicting a below-average rest-of-season wRC+ from him. That being said, I still feel he has a good shot at outperforming those because he's becoming more of a power threat. McAdoo has eight batted balls with an exit velocity of at least 100 mph so far in his Blue Jay career. Five of those have come within the past week. Projection systems like ZiPS do not capture the effects of in-season changes to a hitter's mechanics. Since getting recalled from Buffalo earlier this month, his attack angle has increased by 4° (again, not ideal if you want to skirt your way to a high BABIP with grounders and speed, but good for power) and his average point of contact has shifted nearly 3" further out front toward the mound. Like Cameron, he has that high bat speed & short swing combo that new-age hitting coaches love. The changes in his attack angle and intercept point have translated to more batted balls at ideal angles for him to tap into the power he has, and this has been another chapter in his evolution as a big-league hitter: He reined his swing in to focus on making more contact earlier this season in the minors, raising his floor and getting him a promotion to Toronto. Now, he's beginning to learn to balance that with the pop he has always had. A 215 wRC+ isn't sustainable, and he's done all of his hitting against lefties, but he has what it takes to continue thriving as another righty-hitting option for John Schneider's club. View full article

The Blue Jays fell just short of a weekend sweep against the Yankees, and they even had the chance to complete a four-game sweep of the Red Sox on Thursday. They couldn't finish the job either time, but a 5-2 week against a couple of (very likely) playoff-bound AL East rivals at home has kept their post-deadline fire burning. This team may still sit four games below .500, but the AL logjam has them just one game out of a playoff spot heading into a week that sees them travel to St. Pete and the Bronx. Pitching 3. Chase Lee: Andruw Monasterio GIDP, Top 6, 8/11 (+11.0% WPA) Chase Lee was optioned after giving up a grand slam in Thursday's finale against Boston, but not before he got a big couple of outs in the sixth inning on Tuesday night. After Jarren Duran's leadoff single, he found himself in a 1-1 count against Andruw Monasterio, who got jammed by a sweeper in on his hands and rolled it just to the left of second base. Ernie Clement did the rest himself. 2. Louis Varland: Nick Sogard Groundout, Top 9, 8/10 (+13.6% WPA) The Jays' lights-out closer notched his 25th save early this week, the latest milestone in his unbelievable season. With the tying run 90 feet away and the count full, Louis Varland whipped a 100-mph fastball up in the zone and slightly inside. Nick Sogard did a good job to get to the ball, hitting it sharply to first base, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was as sure-handed as ever, taking it to the bag to seal the win. 1. Louis Varland: Andruw Monasterio Strikeout, Top 9, 8/10 (+14.0% WPA) More pivotal than the final out was the strikeout that Varland got just one batter earlier. Monasterio was on the wrong end of another big moment for the pitching staff this week after failing to come through with a man on third and one out while facing a one-run deficit in the ninth. Varland got him to wave on a nasty knuckle curve in the dirt for a big strikeout. Hitting 3. Alejandro Kirk: RBI Double, Bot 6, 8/14 (+17.3% WPA) Alejandro Kirk has come around in the second half, and he had himself a night on Friday against New York. It began in the sixth when, with two outs and a man on second, he got a hanging slider from Gerrit Cole. He laced it all the way to the wall in left field, scoring George Springer with ease and giving the Jays a lead that Kirk himself would eventually add to in the eighth with a homer. 2. Charles McAdoo: RBI Double, Bot 7, 8/15 (+19.0% WPA) Charles McAdoo had his first signature moment in front of a packed Rogers Centre crowd on Saturday afternoon. Ernie Clement stood on first as the go-ahead run after his leadoff base-hit off Yankees reliever Brent Headrick. McAdoo got a high fastball from Headrick in a hitter's count and didn't miss it, drilling it off the wall on the fly at 107 mph off the bat. Clement came all the way around to score, and the Jays went on to take the game and the series. 1. Kazuma Okamoto: RBI Single, Bot 8, 8/12 (+19.3% WPA) The Blue Jays clinched their series against the Red Sox thanks to a five-run eighth inning, getting contributions up and down the lineup that would wind up looming large as Boston almost came back in the ninth. Nonetheless, the runs began with Kazuma Okamoto, who turned around a 99.5-mph sinker in a two-strike count and lined it into left-center for a base hit. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scored on a bang-bang play after a headfirst slide at home, and the offense kept on coming. View full article

Welcome to Shape of the Blue Jays, my column where I dig into Statcast numbers to analyze recent pitch shape and swing shape trends for Toronto Blue Jays players and discuss how they have impacted their performance. Click here to read the last edition. All stats entering August 14, 2026. Quick Hits: Where'd the Barrels Go? Entering Thursday, the Blue Jays were 10-4 in their last 14 games and had climbed to within 1.5 games of the final Wild Card spot. Given this, I'd start this week's column on a more positive note in an ideal world, but this nugget was too good not to mention: They finished their 7-0 loss in the finale against the Red Sox with an expected batting average of .157. That is their fourth-lowest single-game xBA of the Statcast era, in games where they struck out five or fewer times. Yes, they were up against Payton Tolle, a very good pitcher. In fact, Tolle was coming off a 14-strikeout performance against the Athletics, and he failed to record one until the seventh inning against the Jays. It sounds like an accomplishment, but they only had three hard-hit balls all afternoon, and all of them were on the ground. This game perfectly encapsulated the fact that being a low-strikeout offense means nothing if you can't hit for power. The 2026 Jays have shown us this time and again. It was encouraging to see the team come out of the trade deadline with a new sense of energy and reinsert themselves into the conversation in the still-muddy American League. Ultimately, though, their recent stretch is probably unsustainable if they don't start putting balls over the fence more consistently. José Soriano The changes we saw from José Soriano in his first start with his new team were pretty much what was expected throughout the industry. Shoutout to Jays Centre's own Mike LeSage for sharing this video in our writers' Slack channel that summarizes them well. (Pitching development content with sarcastic undertones is on Instagram Reels now? My hope for the future has been restored.) On Wednesday against Boston, Soriano (6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 4 K, 2 BB) pulled a different lever by throwing his sinker a season-high 45.6% of the time. While he largely avoided throwing four-seamers to lefties for a second consecutive start, he reintroduced the pitch to righties (33% usage). 37 of the 46 pitches he threw to righties were either sinkers or four-seamers. During his second trip through the order, he suddenly fed Boston's lefties a ton of splitters to great effect (60% chase). Beyond the creativity with his arsenal, I appreciated Soriano's willingness to throw his sinker at the top of the zone to lefties. He didn't do this with the Angels, but he dropped eight sinkers above the vertical center of the zone and got four called strikes, one foul, and one groundout, missing just once. Of course, he continued to pound the bottom rail too. If this is a pitch that's going to play at both ends of the zone to opposite-handed hitters, his former team is going to look foolish for not experimenting with more different strategies with him. José Soriano Sinker Locations vs LHH, 8/12 (Statcast) Brett Bateman Brett Bateman has quickly endeared himself to the fanbase after his first six games as a major leaguer. His .259/.310/.333 slash line is nothing to write home about, but he's 3-for-6 in high-leverage at-bats. Small sample, but many inexperienced players will get humbled in big moments, and Bateman has passed that test so far. The 24-year-old center fielder has a short, compact left-handed swing. It's rather unique in its high-tilt yet oppo-oriented, let-it-travel profile. I have a personal tool that displays similarity scores for any hitter based on their bat speed, swing length, tilt, attack angle & direction, and intercept point. Bateman's closest mechanical left-handed comps so far are Jonathan Aranda, Brice Turang, and Nathan Lukes. Aranda is an example of a hitter who has figured out how to lift a ton of balls with this type of swing, while Turang and Lukes are more groundball/line drive guys, similar to Bateman's smaller-sample batted ball distribution. The latter two are, of course, some of the better bat-to-ball hitters in the game, a skill Bateman is also known for. Given his speed, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if Bateman continues to hit the ball on the ground half the time. Perhaps Aranda could be a useful model if he were to work on adding power. Brett Bateman Swing Mechanics Comps, 2026 Player Bat Speed Swing Length Swing Tilt Attack Angle Attack Direction Contact Pt Y Brett Bateman 68.0 mph 6.90 ft 36° 6° 9° 24.5" Jonathan Aranda 70.0 mph 7.09 ft 34.9° 7.6° 5.6° 26.1" Brice Turang 69.9 mph 6.76 ft 35.9° 8.1° 9.9° 30.8" Nathan Lukes 67.0 mph 6.39 ft 31° 6.7° 7.8° 26.8" Max Scherzer Since turning 42, Max Scherzer has authored his best stretch of the season, posting a 2.20 ERA with 13 strikeouts and three walks in three August starts (16.1 IP). One of those 13 strikeouts put him inside the top 10 all-time leaderboard, and on Thursday, he surpassed the 3,000 innings mark. It continues to be extremely cool that Scherzer chose to be a Blue Jay at this later stage of his career. The biggest factor at play in his resurgence is better stuff. In his outing against the Phillies last Saturday, his fastball averaged 94.2 mph, a season-high. While it returned to 92-93 on Thursday, his secondaries were quite strong, particularly his curveball (44% whiff, 50% chase, 3/3 first-pitch strikes). He's been getting more drop on it in recent weeks: After it averaged around -5 to -6 inches of induced vertical break for most of his season, it's down to -7/-8 territory so far in August, averaging -8" for a second consecutive start on Thursday. His changeup (43% whiff on Thursday) averaged 16" of run after running more than usual in his prior two starts as well. John Schneider put it beautifully when he said sustainability is no longer a consideration for his bullpen at this point in the season. The length Scherzer has given them as of late, then, could not have come at a better time. Max Scherzer Swings and Misses (Curveball & Changeup only), 8/13 (Statcast) View full article