Blue Jays 2026 Pitching Projections: Where the Forecasts Agree, and Where They Don't

Spring training games start this weekend. I invite you to take a moment and think back to what the Blue Jays' roster looked like a year ago today. Some of the main characters are still around, but not even a trip to the World Series was enough to make this team immune to the winds of offseason change, least of all on the pitching side. There was considerable turnover in the rotation and the bullpen as the Jays try to stay ahead of the curve in a division that's only getting more hyper-competitive.

At this point, all notable public player projection systems have given their two cents on how this season will unfold. Naturally, each forecasting model on sites like FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus is built on slightly different foundations. Two models can come to entirely different conclusions on a given player's prognosis. On FanGraphs alone, there are a handful of algorithms dedicated to predicting every major leaguer's immediate future. ZiPS uses historical comps to estimate future performance. Steamer uses underlying numbers and regresses toward league average. FGDC averages ZiPS and Steamer with a more precise playing time projection. Similar to Steamer in nature are The Bat and The Bat X, with the latter incorporating more Statcast data. ATC is an elaborate aggregate of all those systems. OOPSY is more exploratory, considering pitch modelling and bat tracking more than its predecessors.

What do these models think about the Blue Jays’ pitching staff in 2026? Which is most optimistic? Which is least optimistic? Who are the specific pitchers they find common ground on, and who has a wide range of outcomes?

In Agreement

It's always a comforting sign for a fanbase when the computers have a shared, positive consensus on their team's most expensive addition of the winter. Across the board, Dylan Cease is pegged for a mid-3.00s ERA and FIP by the FanGraphs projections roundtable. The proverbial crystal balls are quite confident he'll rebound from an inconsistent 2025 and become the team's best starting pitcher. Derek Carty's The Bat X provides the most glowing report, predicting a 3.37 ERA for Cease across 29 starts and 171 IP. Cease's reputation as a strikeout pitcher certainly precedes him, but Steamer is the most bullish on him suppressing the walks that have plagued him from time to time (proj. 8.7% BB rate). By contrast, ATC is on the low end with a 3.72 ERA estimate. A minuscule difference of 0.35 runs between the best and worst ERA projections is a ringing endorsement of Cease's ability to live up to the peripherals and be a true ace in Toronto.

Setting expectations for rookies, especially after the run that Trey Yesavage went on to cap off 2025, can be a tough exercise. However, the models paint a pretty clear picture. Between FanGraphs' various models, Yesavage has the lowest standard deviation in FIP projections of anyone on this staff. Unsurprisingly, the stuff-based OOPSY likes him the most (3.39 ERA, 3.67 FIP), while The Bat thinks he'll be a little closer to average (3.86 ERA, 3.94 FIP). The alien release point, high-vert fastball, dizzying splitter, and reverse slider make for an enigmatic package. The most crucial task for Yesavage this year will be staying ahead of hitters; he had them perplexed for most of October, but baseball is a game of constant adjustment and readjustment. In any case, he's one of the more talented young pitchers the organization has seen in some time.

As with prospects, it can be tough to put a finger on pitchers coming in from overseas. Yet, as with Yesavage, the models have conviction in their optimism for Cody Ponce in what'll be his second go-around at the MLB level. He isn't the same pitcher he was when we last saw him with the Pirates, and the FanGraphs projections are buying into his stellar showing in the KBO, with a composite 4.07 ERA/3.94 FIP outlook. Ponce has the tightest forecasted ERA window of any of his teammates, with Steamer more sold than the rest (3.94 ERA, 3.81 FIP) and ZiPS falling on the other end of the spectrum (4.20 ERA, 4.13 FIP). He looks like a perfectly capable back-of-the-rotation arm from that standpoint, something the Blue Jays would surely be happy with considering his relatively low free agent price tag.

In Disagreement

It was a strange first year back in the organization for Jeff Hoffman. There were pronounced highs and lows, and he underperformed some of his peripherals, but after some speculation that someone else would be the closer in 2026, it looks like it's his job to lose once again. Most of the classic "luck" indicators can't make heads or tails of what happened last year: His BABIP was low, his HR/FB% was very high, and his xERA was considerably lower than reality, albeit still higher than it was with the Phillies. The projections are thus conflicted as well; OOPSY (3.36 ERA, 3.61 FIP) and ZiPS (3.38 ERA, 3.74 FIP) are believers while The Bat is not (4.08 ERA, 4.06 FIP). It's important to note that despite the wide range of possibilities, Hoffman's forecast stands out relative to his colleagues. His 3.60 composite ERA projection is the third-lowest of the pitchers widely expected to break camp. 

There's also some contention regarding Louis Varland. The bullpen's chief workhorse has OOPSY convinced (3.20 ERA, 3.40 FIP), which, again, shouldn't be too surprising given how electric the stuff is. On the other hand, a fastball that regularly touches 100, coupled with the hardest knuckle curve in the sport and decent command, isn't enough to convince The Bat X (4.23 ERA, 4.00 FIP). Varland has the highest standard deviation in ERA and FIP projections of anyone who's likely guaranteed an Opening Day roster spot, but as with Hoffman, the averages paint a more reassuring picture. His 3.72 composite ERA projection slots right behind the closer as fourth-best on the team.

Among those turning heads early in camp is Ricky Tiedemann, who's healthy for the first time in a while and inserting himself into that Opening Day roster conversation. The talent is undeniable for the former third-round pick, but considering the lack of clarity as to his role if he does make the team and his injury history, the computers are divided on him. OOPSY has him down for a 3.73 ERA and a 3.88 FIP, which would be an encouraging development but relatively inconsequential at the team level, given his playing time projection of 19 appearances and 32 innings. ZiPS thinks it'll be a slower climb (4.68 ERA, 4.74 FIP), but the fact that he's off the IL and ready to create some tough decisions for the coaching staff is a refreshing sign for everyone in the organization.

The Verdict

Out of the wealth of projection systems at FanGraphs, Steamer has the lowest team-wide ERA for the Blue Jays in 2026, while ZiPS has the highest.

More Notes

This season's forecast is strong for Brendon Little. On aggregate, he has the lowest ERA (3.46) and second-lowest FIP (3.70) projection on the staff. He burned out down the stretch and was not reliable in October, but he was one of the most effective lefty relievers in baseball during the first half and frequently got the ball in high-leverage spots. Finishing the season the way he starts and putting up a better fight against fatigue will be key.

Thanks to the additions in the bullpen, Braydon Fisher is not guaranteed a big-league job right out of the gate. The projection systems think he should be, though, as he has the fifth-lowest composite ERA projection of the group (3.74). Fisher was acquired from the Dodgers for Cavan Biggio in 2024, and the Blue Jays have certainly gotten what they wanted so far out of that deal. Both on the surface and below, he has had a glowing start to his big league career.

Eventually, the bullpen will welcome back Yimi García, who will start the year on the IL after he battled injury for most of last season. When the Blue Jays re-acquired him in free agency last winter, it was thought that he could compete with Hoffman for the closing job, and while it remains to be seen how his rehab will affect his stuff, most of the projection systems are confident. Garcia's aggregate ERA projection is 3.75, right behind Fisher’s, and hopefully a positive omen that he'll work his way back to high-leverage work sooner than later.