Jesse Burrill

What can we learn from the first four games of the season? Plenty. It has been a very eventful week for the Toronto Blue Jays, from leaving Dunedin with the best record in the Grapefruit League, to the excitement of Alan Roden making the opening day roster, to the Blue Jays opening the regular season at home for the first time since 2022. Excitement and optimism for this team have been at its highest. Four games later, and a four-game series split against division rival the Orioles later, the general perception of the team might have changed. The wind was taken out of our sails early on Opening Day, as Blue Jays pitchers gave up six home runs and never really came close in a 10-run blowout. Game two was the Blue Jays' turn: a five-run fourth inning spurred the offence and the Jays went on to win by six. Game three went the Orioles way, and game four belonged to the Blue Jays, who leave the first series with a 2-2 record. For just four games of a long 162-game season is almost as small a sample size as you can get, there are still some notable takeaways you could make from the opening series of the season, and here are five things in particular that caught my attention: 1. Starting Pitching Depth May Be a Problem The most notable piece of news is that Max Scherzer had to be removed from his start after just 45 pitches with what the Blue Jays described as “right lat soreness,” and which Scherzer himself said it was all connected to the thumb issue that caused him to have his last start of Spring training delayed. On Sunday, the Blue Jays moved Scherzer to the 15-day IL. He is visiting a hand specialist in the United States today. Whether it's the minimum 15 days or a longer term of absence for Scherzer, the Blue Jays are going to need to tap into their starting pitching depth, meaning that Yariel Rodríguez is going to be inserted back into the starting rotation earlier than expected. Rodríguez has shown glimpses of efficiency in the past, but he has struggled in the spring. Although he pitched a clean eight inning on Sunday afternoon, he was responsible for two of the six home runs Baltimore hit on opening night. Easton Lucas has been called up and will likely take Rodríguez's spot as the “long man” in the bullpen. Lucas has a career 9.82 ERA, and it was 8.64 during his time this spring, so the Blue Jays are already taking a real chance that Lucas can help this bullpen. The starting pitching depth taking a hit is certainly something that is going to be tested, especially if there is another injury or poor performance somewhere in the rotation. 2. The Blue Jays Are Managing the Bullpen Aggressively The bullpen was a major focus during spring training. Jacob Barnes and Richard Lovelady were both granted spots on the 40-man roster, and things certainly didn't go well. Barnes allowed four earned runs over 2 1/3 innings, giving up five hits and walking one batter. Lovelady walked and hit a batter on Opening Day, exploded upon relieving Scherzer on Saturday. He hit two of the first three batters he faced, gave up two doubles, and walked another. When the inning had ended, the Blue Jays' two-run lead had turned into a two-run deficit. In the past, the Blue Jays might have had a longer leash, especially after deciding just a few days prior that Lovelady was the right choice. This year, after two subpar outings, the Blue Jays have designated him for assignment and are now going to use Mason Fluharty as the second lefty in the bullpen behind Brendan Little. Fluharty will make his major league debut at some point this week. 3. The Blue Jays Are Really Hitting the Ball Hard Last season, if it wasn’t the Blue Jays' bullpen underproducing, it was the offence. The combination led to the 74-win total and a last-place finish in the AL East. In 2024, the Blue Jays' 88.1 mph ranked 24th and their 37.4% ranked 25th. Just one series into the season, they've been hitting the ball much harder. After the series, the Blue Jays have had 48 hard-hit baseballs (Statcast a ball as hard-hit if it's 95 mph or faster off the bat). The team's 99.1-mph average exit velocity and 49% hard-hit rate both rank seventh. Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr lead the team with nine hard-hit balls a piece, Newcomer Andres Gimenez is third on the team with six, and every Blue Jay who has recorded at least one batted ball event has at least one hard-hit ball except for Davis Schneider. It's way too early to say whether this trend will continue, but it's certainly a good sign. 4. Alan Roden Looks Like He Belongs Here All eyes were on Alan Roden when it was announced that he had officially made the team out of Spring Training. John Schendier batted him ninth on Opening Day, and Roden showed a patient approach and notched a slightly lucky first career hit. Roden started three out of the four games, going 2-for-10 with a walk and his first career RBI. Although the offense wasn't spectacular, he got starts in both right and left, and made a phenomenal diving catch in game two that new outfield coach Kevin Gausman certainly approved of. His development will be intriguing going forward. 5. Jeff Hoffman Looks Like the Real Deal Signing Jeff Hoffman to a three-year $33-million contract was a big move. Ross Atkins immediately made clear that Hoffman would be the team's closer, and he looked the part against the Orioles. Coming off a spring where he struck out eight and allowed only one earned run over 5 2/3 innings, Hoffman continued his dominant run. In game three, he got the first two outs, gave up a soft single, and then struck out Cedric Mullins for the last out in the ninth. On Sunday, he entered in the ninth with a two-run lead and sealed the deal. He induced a groundball out (thanks to a nice play by Andrés Giménez), then struck out Heston Kjerstad and Gary Sanchez to earn his first save as a Toronto Blue Jay. Getting the save against the Orioles has to feel just a little bit sweeter, as they were one of two teams to reportedly agree to a deal with Hoffman this offseason, only to back out due to a failed physical. Only time will tell whether Hoffman's shoulder is really 100%, but he looks good so far. Getting the baseball to Hoffman in the ninth with a lead is going to be a strong recipe for success this season. View full article

Plenty of questions surround the Blue Jays roster this season. 26 of them, to be specific. Happy Opening Day! Its been a long 178 days since we last saw the Blue Jays take the field in a competitive ball game. In that game, one game the Jays ultimately ended up losing, 3-1, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit leadoff in an attempt to get hit number 200, ultimately falling just short. Ryan Burr started and gave up two runs. Ryan Yarbrough, Brett de Geus, Spencer Horwitz, and Luis De Los Santos, none of whom is still part of this team, all made appearances. A lot has changed between then and now. Jeff Hoffman, Anthony Santander, Andrés Giménez, and Max Scherzer have all joined the club. Yimi García also makes a return after a mid-season trade to Seattle. After an impressive minor league and spring training performance, Alan Roden has made the team and started his first game on Opening Day. With the new season comes new hope, maybe slightly more after the Blue Jays finished first in the Grapefruit League, winning the Golden Grapefruit (shoutout to Keegan Matheson). There is a refreshed sense of optimism around this team, a sense that maybe, if things break their way, the Blue Jays can make a run to get into a playoff position this season. Almost every player on the roster has their own question marks or injury history. Let's look deeper into the 26 players on the Opening Roster and see what pivotal questions each player faces going into the 2025 season: CATCHERS Alejandro Kirk: How can he hold up to an increased workload this season? Cooking off a five-year, $85-million dollar extension signed earlier this week, the Blue Jays have made it known that Kirk is going to be the undisputed number one catcher for the foreseeable future. Will he be able to handle the role? Catching causes wear and tear on the body, Kirk has never caught more than 99 games, which he did in 2023. Can he handle the increased workload? Tyler Heineman: Can he be a positive contributor when called into action? Heineman won the backup catching job this spring and has some experience with the staff. When Kirk does need a break, can Heineman contribute positively to this team? A career OPS of .571 is underwhelming, but he is a positive pitch framer, so that will help. INFIELDERS Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Can he put together another MVP-caliber season in a contract year? The topic with Guerrero has been whether or not he will sign an extension, and whether he does or does not, the question of what he will do on the field remains. Guerrero’s OPS+ over the past few seasons: 2021: 167 2022: 133 2023: 116 2024: 166 The Blue Jays are certainly going to need that number to be closer to the 2021 and 2024 numbers this season, and if he wants his $500 or so million, so will Guerrero. Andrés Giménez: Will we get a bounce back with the bat? In 2022, Giménez had a 141 OPS+ combined with his elite defence and baserunning to earn a sixth-place finish in the MVP voting. Since then, an OPS+ of 96 in 2023 and just 82 in 2024 leaves you wanting more. If the Blue Jays can get anywhere close to a league-average bat, then Giménez can turn into an extremely valuable player. Bo Bichette: Can he turn the page on an injury-riddled 2024 season? Bichette's 2024 season was highly disappointing. Playing in just 82 games and hitting just four home runs was not what anyone thought he’d do coming into the season. Can he put that season behind him and turn into the player who regularly would flirt with the AL lead in hits once again? Ernie Clement: Can he take his skillset to the next level? Clement does a little bit of everything well. He’s a good defender, (92nd percentile in range), a good baserunner, (78th percentile sprint speed), and a decent hitter (94 wRC+). Can he take another step forward and improve on his 3.4 WAR in 2024? Will Wagner: How will he look in his first extended stint in the big leagues? Will Wagner looked really good in his brief stint in the major leagues, hitting .305 with a 125 wRC+ in 2024. Wagner is going to get an extended run at third base as the strong side of a platoon this season, and his bat is a big question mark. Davis Schneider: Can he be a masher off the bench? As things currently stand, Schneider is the main right-handed bat off of the bench. He'll be hitting the tough lefties over the course of the season. Last season, he hit just .165 with a .528 OPS against lefties. That needs to be better or else Schneider could be spending much of the season in Buffalo. OUTFIELDERS Anthony Santander: Can he provide lineup protection hitting behind Guerrero? Tony Taters will be relied on to deliver massive power numbers hitting behind Guerrero. Santander needs to prove that pitching around Guerrero will be a mistake. George Springer: Can the Jays get one more productive season out of him? Springer has shown some signs of decline over the last few seasons. His .674 OPS was a career-worst, and his range in the outfield has dropped to the 51st percentil, last season, down from 61st in 2023 and 76th in 2022. The Blue Jays need to get some production out of Springer, especially if he’s going to keep hitting in the top half of the batting order. Nathan Lukes: Can he adapt to a full-time bench role? Lukes had a good spring and secured himself a spot on the Opening Day roster, His reputation is that he can work a good at-bat and provide solid defence and speed. During a brief stint in 2024, he hit .303 with an .818 OPS and more walks than strikeouts. Lukes may not play every day and needs to show that he can be productive when called on in small doses. Myles Straw: Can he provide anything with the bat? Straw’s calling card is his defence, but in order for Straw to stick on the roster after Daulton Varsho returns, he needs to show he can provide something with the bat. For what it's worth, he did hit .400 with a 1.039 OPS in 30 at-bats this spring. STARTING PITCHERS José Berríos: Can he remain durable and consistent? José Berríos has made 32 starts in every 162-game regular season since 2018, and aside from a poor 2022 season, his ERA has been between 3.50 and 4.00. In an era where pitchers get hurt more and more, Berrios staying on the field will be a major key this season. Kevin Gausman: Can he find his fastball velocity and splitter movement again? Kevin Gausman's fastball velocity dropped from 94.6 mph in 2023 down to 93.9 in 2024. Likewise, the splitter went from 32.2 inches of vertical drop down to 30.9 in 2024. If Kevin Gausman can prove he’s healthy and find the velocity again, then the Blue Jays could be getting the pitcher who got down-ballot Cy-Young votes three seasons in a row. Max Scherzer: Can he overcome the nerve issue in the thumb and remain on the field? Scherzer has been one of the best pitchers in the game over the course of his career, and the Blue Jays are hoping the veteran has even more in him. The main issue will be keeping Scherzer on the field, as he threw just 43 1/3 with the Rangers last season, and has already had some starts pushed back this spring due to a thumb issue. Chris Bassitt: Can he avoid the slow start? Bassitt has historically been a slow starter in his time with the Blue Jays. In 2024, his March/April ERA was 5.64; in 2023, it was 5.18. The Blue Jays' schedule in that time has them face 28 out of their 31 games against teams that finished .500 or above last season. Bassitt will need to be sharp right from the get-go this season. Bowden Francis: Is the player he was in the second half of 2024 the real deal? Bowden Francis's 2024 season had two very different sides. He ran a 5.82 ERA in the first half, compared to a 1.80 ERA in the second half. Which version of Francis wthe Blue Jays get in 2025 will be a major factor in the rotation's overall quality. RELIEF PITCHERS Jeff Hoffman: Are the failed physicals a concern? A shoulder injury reportedly caused Hoffman to fail physicals from both the Orioles and the Braves before ultimately signing in Toronto. Is that just nonsense, or is it possible that his shoulder is a ticking time bomb? Yimi García: Can he handle another high-leverage relief role? García was excellent with the Blue Jays in 2024, but since his trade to Seattle, he has dealt with injuries and some inconsistency. A return to form would be huge for a bullpen that was the worst in all of baseball last season. Chad Green: Can he handle another potential innings jump? Green was healthy in 2024 after missing time due to Tommy John surgery in 2022 and the first half of 2023. He was very effective most of the season before running out of gas at the end. The team will need to rely on Green, so avoiding a late-season collapse will be very important. Brendon Little: Can he strand the inherited runners? No Blue Jays pitcher ran a higher groundball rate than Little's 72.3% in 2024. Because of that, Little will likely be the first reliever to come into the game in a tight spot with runners on base. If he can strand runners on, then he could be an unsung hero in this bullpen. Nick Sandlin: Can he avoid giving up the long ball? Last season in Cleveland, Sandlin was effective, but he gave up more than his share of home runs. His 1.91 home runs per nine innings were the third-highest out of all qualified relievers. Home runs can be back-breaking in the bullpen, and Sandlin is going to have to be better at that in 2025. Richard Lovelady: Can he get lefties out enough to keep his spot on this roster? The Blue Jays chose to go with a second lefty in the ‘pen and Lovelady won that spot. If he’s going to keep it, he’s going to have to prove he can get other lefties out consistently. Over his career, he’s held lefties to a .232 average with a 3.45 FIP. Combined with the improvements he made from going to driveline this winter, this is how Lovelady can keep his spot on the roster. Jacob Barnes: Can he stay on the roster once others are healthy? Barnes' inclusion on the Opening Day roster was a bit of surprise, and he could be the odd man out when Burr/Swanson/Tate are ready to return. Barnes' goal early in the season is to do everything he can to make sure he’s not the first man sent down when reinforcements arrive. Yariel Rodríguez: How will he adjust to moving from the bullpen and the rotation? With Ryan Yarborough opting out, Rodriguez becomes the team's primary long man going into the season. He’s more than likely going to pitch both as a starter and as a reliever. His ability to perform in both roles will go a long way for his development in 2025 and in the long term. View full article

Kirk is one of the game's best defensive catchers, and his offensive potential makes him a bounce-back candidate in 2025. The Blue Jays have locked him down through the end of the 2030 season. On Saturday night, the Blue Jays and catcher Alejandro Kirk agreed on a five-year, $58-million extension, according to Robert Murrary of FanSided. The deal includes a $6-million signing bonus without any options or deferrals, leaving his $4.6-million arbitration salary for the 2025 season in place and running through the end of the 2030 season. It may not have been the extension most Blue Jays fans were hoping to see this spring, but it is a very impactful one nonetheless. Kirk is 26 years old and was just one year away from reaching free agency, but this extension buys out his last year of arbitration and four free agent years, meaning he won't be a free agent until after his age-31 season. It's easy to see why the Blue Jays wanted to keep Kirk around. After trading Danny Jansen to the Red Sox last July, the Blue Jays haven’t done much to replace him, meaning that Kirk has been the undisputed first catcher on the depth chart since that time. Since his debut in 2020, Kirk's 36 defensive runs saved are tied for second-most among all catchers while his 31 fielding runs are tied for fourth. Kirk combines that elite defence with a Silver Slugger, a career 107 OPS+, and some reason for optimism that the offence could be even better. This seems like a good bet for a player who is just 26 years old. The move shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. Earlier this week, President and CEO Mark Shapiro raved about Kirk saying, “Kirky’s for elite mental attributes, Elite. Slows the game down as well as anybody I've seen.” Since Shapiro and Ross Atkins took over the front office, this is the only the third deal longer than two years that the team has handed out, joining the five-year, $52-million dollar deal Randal Grichuk signed in 2019 and the seven-year, $131-million dollar deal Jose Berríos signed in 2021. The deal seems like a good fit for both parties involved. The Blue Jays don't have much in the farm system at the catching position and will now have some certainty at that spot for the next half-decade. Kirk’s deal will give him some financial security for the same amount of time. Given Kirk’s elite defensive ability and the chance for an improvement in his offensive game, will now get several more chances to put it all together while playing in Toronto. View full article

The Blue Jays have been rolling throughout spring training. Breaking down five numbers that portend good things for the regular season. Baseball has always been a numbers game, Almost every baseball fan can tell you the importance of Jackie Robinson's number 42, or Cal Ripken Jr. and the number 2,131, or Joe DiMaggio and the number 56. Players establish their Hall of Fame credentials by reaching certain career numbers as well: 3,000 hits, 500 home runs, or (once upon a time) 300 wins, almost guarantee you a plaque in Cooperstown. The Blue Jays have their own set of famous numbers throughout history. First and foremost: 1992 and 1993. The number 32 is the only one hanging from the rafters in the Rogers Centre. Then there's 727,819: the record-setting number of Loonie Dogs eaten at the Rogers Centre in 2024. This spring, the Blue Jays have been putting up some impressive numbers, the most notable being 15, the number in the win column during spring training. Even if John Schneider and company aren't chasing the Golden Grapefruit as they claim, it's still nice to see the wins piling up for a team that will need a lot of them in order to make the 2025 season a success. As Schneider knows, spring training numbers don’t necessarily translate into the regular season, but as spring goes on and sample sizes get a little bit larger, we may be able to learn a few things. Let's take a look at five numbers that may mean something going into the season. Number One: 54.8% That would be Alejandro Kirk's hard-hit rate (during games in Statcast-enabled stadiums). It's leaps and bounds higher than anything we’ve seen from Kirk in his career, and it makes the nice spring that Kirk is putting together, an OBP-heavy .306/.366/.417 slash line, look even more encouraging. Kirk has been showing signs that an offensive resurgence could be in the cards this season. Number Two: 250 That's how many strikeouts the Blue Jays have notched so far this season. This is a very welcome sight to see! In 2024 Blue Jays pitchers ranked 24th in baseball. This spring, they're in third place, both in total strikeouts and on a per-inning basis. Most notably, Max Scherzer has struck out 14 in his nine innings of work, while Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, Bowden Francis and Yariel Rodriguez are all in double digits. Yimi García and Jeff Hoffman have nine and eight strikeouts respectively. The Jays pitchers struggled in a lot of ways last year, but if they are able to rely on the strikeout more this season it’ll go a long way to helping a pitching staff and particularly a bullpen that was subpar last season. Number Three: 4 This is the number of home runs Bo Bichette has hit this spring. Notably, it is also the amount of home runs that Bo Bichette hit during the entire 2024 season. The re-emergence of Bichette this spring has got to be a delight to all parties involved. From 2021 to 2023, Bichette was a routine 20-homer player, but the power numbers fell off a cliff amid an avalanche of injuries. It's not just the home runs either. Bichette's spring wOBA sits at .445 after a paltry .264 in 2024. Bichette is currently running an average exit velocity of 93.2 mph. That's not a sustainable number going into the season, but it's an excellent sign after he averaged 89.2 mph last season. If the Bo Bichette the Jays get this season looks anything like this slugger with the sharp new haircut, it would represent the best-case scenario for all parties. Number Four: 25 That's the number of plate appearances Alan Roden made this spring before he struck out for the first time. Roden's claim to fame as a prospect has always been his ability to run exquisite walk and strikeout rates, and this spring he's walked twice as often as he's struck out! Twenty-five straight PAs without a strikeout is impressive for anyone, but especially for a guy without a single major league plate appearance to his name. Roden is slashing an absurd .391/.545/.739 so far this spring. Real impressive, and a forceful case for Roden to break camp with the big club. Number Five: 20 This is how many more strikeouts than walks the trio of Hoffman, García and Chad Green have registered so far this spring. Remember last year, when the Blue Jays had the worst bullpen in franchise history? That's surely not going to be the case this year. All three of these pitchers have been dynamite so far in spring. García in particular has looked excellent, throwing six innings and allowing only two hits while striking out nine and walking nobody at all. In 2024, the Blue Jays lost 35 games that they had at one point led. This has got to give the team confidence, knowing that if the starter gives them six quality innings, this trio will be ready to slam the door. We'll end with one last reminder that spring training stats come and go, and once we get into the dog days of summer, very few of us are going to remember what happened in Dunedin. But it's worth keeping these in mind as we get closer to Opening Day and we do our best to prepare for the season to come. If the regular season is anything like spring training, the Blue Jays will be in good shape. View full article

Lets Go!!

Sring training records don't matter, but there's still a lot to be encouraged about in Dunedin right now. Baseball is fun! The constant battle between the pitcher and the hitter, the excitement of knowing your team always has a chance to win until the 27th out is made, or just having a great time out at the ballpark. All are solid reasons to enjoy the game. The one thing that makes baseball better is winning. So far the Toronto Blue Jays have been doing a lot of it this spring. On Monday afternoon, the Blue Jays welcomed the Houston Astros into a sunny but windy TD Ballpark in Dunedin. After surrendering three quick runs, the Blue Jays scored eight unanswered, thanks in part to a Bo Bichette home run that literally left the stadium . Will Wagner and Ernie Clement each contributed RBI doubles, and Addison Barger hit his own whopping 421-foot home run, his second of the spring. The game ended in a thrilling 8-3 victory for the home team. It was the Blue Jays' sixth win in eight games. As of Tuesday morning, the Blue Jays are 10-6, full game up on the Red Sox for the best record in the Grapefruit League. Spring training records don't mean much. In 2024, the Orioles had spring's best record at 23-6, then they got swept out of the first round of the playoffs. The best spring team of 2023 was the Cardinals, and they finished dead last in the NL Central. In 2022, the Angels had the best spring record and they haven’t made the playoffs since people across North America were still regularly doing the ice bucket challenge. But while wins and losses might not mean much, a deeper can give us a better understanding of the positives happening across camp. There are reasons to think Toronto's record has been well-earned too. The Blue Jays have a +23 run differential and 113 runs scored, both the best marks in the league. Thirty Blue Jays have made at least one plate appearance this spring, and 28 of them have a wRC+ of 103 or higher, meaning nearly every batter has performed above the league average. The only two that haven't delivered are Matt Whatley, (who is very low on the catching depth chart right now) and George Springer. However, Springer has still reached base three times via the base on balls and twice more via being hit by pitches. On the pitching side, Max Scherzer is in the top 10 in swinging strike rate, Kevin Gausman looks like his old self, and the late-end bullpen combination of Jeff Hoffman, Yimi García, and Chad Green have combined to go 11 scoreless innings with 14 strikeouts and just one walk. The only real blemishes have been some home run problems for Bowden Francis, some control issues for Yariel Rodríguez, and some growing pains for the young Jake Bloss. Here are the Blue Jays' ranks in some major hitting categories across both the Cactus and Grapefruit Leagues: Third in Runs scored (113) Second in OBP (.372) Third in OPS (.846) Sixth in home runs (24) 10th in walks drawn (76) Fifth in fewest strikeouts (137) John Schneider and the rest of the coaching staff have got to be thrilled at what they have seen from this offence so far. The classic recipe for success in baseball consists of hitting the ball hard, hitting it often, and having your pitchers limit their mistakes. That's exactly what has been happening for the Blue Jays so far this spring. There is a long way to go between the cold days of early March and raising a banner in the Rogers Centre come October, but with what we've seen so far this spring it's a very good sign. What could be more fun than that? View full article

Alan Roden looks like one of the Blue Jays' 26 best players, but does he have a path toward starting the season on the roster? The Blue Jays Spring Training has been full of pleasant surprises so far. Max Scherzer looks like he’s turned back the clock, Kevin Gausman finally looks healthy again, and both Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. look good at the plate as well. But there is one player who is catching everyone’s attention this spring: Alan Roden. General Manager Ross Atkins caught a few people by surprise in February, when Keegan Matheson asked which prospects he was excited about going into spring and he called out Roden specifically saying, “I’ll single out and put some pressure on Alan Roden. He’s done so much to put himself in a position to move through the system quickly.” Its quite rare for Atkins to call out a prospect in the public like that, and Roden appears to be listening. So far in the Spring he’s 6-for-14 with two home runs. On top of that, he’s drawn four walks, has been hit by three pitches, and has yet to strike out in his 21 plate appearances. Really impressive stuff. The minor league track record has been pretty impressive too, in 2023 between Low A, High A, and Double A, he put together a 149 wRC+ with more walks (68) than strikeouts (64). In 2024 between New Hampshire and Buffalo, it was more of the same: a 136 wRC+, 64 walks, and 75 strikeouts. Combine that with 16 home runs and 14 stolen bases he’s been a very complete player. No matter what expectations were from Atkins coming into camp, it's a safe bet that Roden has already exceeded them. The real question is whether he's put pressure on the front office to make the Opening Day roster. It's an interesting dilemma and an important decision for the Blue Jays. Let’s take a look at some of the arguments for and against Roden being on the opening-day roster. 1) Alan Roden might be one of our top nine hitters already. It's hard to predict that a player who has yet to see any big league time already be a top-nine hitter but Roden might fit that mold. He’s done nothing but hit in the minor leagues and has put it together again this spring. Even some of the projection systems seem to be buying into the skill set Roden brings to the table. Steamer projects Roden to finish sixth on the team in wRC+ and ZIPS has him fifth. Projections aren’t everything; that's why they play the games, but when the data and the eye test both look promising, it's a good assumption to assume Roden will be an above-average offensive producer in his rookie season. 2) He’s 25 years old, so starting his service time clock shouldn't be an issue. We’ve seen the Blue Jays in the past wait to call up their prospects until they’ve secured an extra year of service time with their top prospects. The Blue Jays did this with Guerrero in 2019 and the Cubs did this with Kris Bryant during his rookie season. Even if the Blue Jays were to call up Roden and have him here until there on Opening Day, he’ll be under team control for six more seasons, meaning he will not be a free agent until he enters his age-31 season, and that's around that time where MLB players start showing a sign of decline. The Blue Jays are going to get the peak years of Roden's career whether he’s on the Opening Day roster or not. 3) There is a sense of urgency to win now. Let’s take a bigger pitcher look at this team. As of now, it's the last season with both Guerrero and Bichette under contract, and the Blue Jays have made a lot of win-now moves, adding Anthony Santander, Jeff Hoffman, and others to help give this team the best chance to win this season. If Roden truly is one of the best hitters on this team, then getting a full 162-game production out of him will help maximize his potential impact on the roster. Now as much fun as it would be to have Roden on the roster, The Blue Jays are the ones who are ultimately going to make the decision on this, and here are some reasons why they might not do so: 1) He’s currently not on the 40-man roster. This might be fairly minor, as the Blue Jays do have some names to consider. Alek Manoah and Adam Macko will likely be moved to the 60-Day IL once the season starts, which would open up some spots. There are some names on the back end of the roster that the Blue Jays might not be willing to give up on yet. Sending Roden to Buffalo and off the roster to start the season might give the Blue Jays a chance to get a further look at guys like Nick Robertson, Easton Lucas, beacuse Ryan Burr and Erik Swanson are both currently dealing with injuries. Either way, it won’t be long until Roden cracks the roster 2) He might not get extended playing time in the big leagues. As things currently stand, the Blue Jays outfield group is quite crowded. Daulton Varsho is currently DH'ing in spring, and even if he does start the season on the IL, he may not be for long. George Springer and Santander are likely going to see the majority of the playing time in right field, with Springer seeing occasional time in left field. Then you have players like Addison Barger, Davis Schneider, Joey Loperfido, Myles Straw, Steward Berroa, Jonatan Clase, and Nathan Lukes, all of whom are on the 40-man roster and all of whom already spent time in the major leagues It’s going to be hard for any of them to get regular at-bats, and it can be hard for a prospect like Roden to fully develop if he’s only playing two or three times a week. The Jays may want him to get regular at-bats in Buffalo. 3) The Jays might not be willing to lock up the DH Spot. This goes hand in hand with my second point, but barring an injury, the only way Roden can see a full-time spot in the majors is if the Blue Jays are open to putting Santander or Springer in the DH spot fairly regularly. Over the past few seasons, the Blue Jays ohave liked using the DH spot to give their players a half-day off or to play platoon matchups with players like Will Wagner and Orelvis Martinez. All things considered, whether he starts the season in Toronto or down in Buffalo, it's not going to be long before Roden gets the call to the big leagues. But in a season when each win will matter so much for the Blue Jays, going north with the best 26 guys might be the move, and there isn't much doubt that Roden is one of those best 26 players. View full article

After Bassitt's first Grapefruit League start, manager John Schneider indicated that the right-hander might benefit from focusing on a more limited repertoire. The man himself was much more cryptic. Chris Bassitt has always been a very captivating person. He not only excels at baseball but is a self-proclaimed full-time outdoorsman too. Along with the rest of his family, he has done incredible charity work with the Jays Care Foundation and the "Bassitts Pitch In" program, in which he pledges $10,000 for every win the Blue Jays get when he pitches. He’s even a good sport when it comes to losing his fantasy football league. Bassitt the pitcher is no different, since 2019, his 917 innings pitched are the ninth-most in baseball. He earned an All-Star selection in 2021, and has finished in the top 10 in Cy Young voting three times in the last five years. Any description of the 36-year-old would have to include the word 'consistent.' But the way Bassitt pitches is anything but consistent, There is no specific stat that can measure a pitcher's consistency, but if we take a deeper look into his 2024 season we see some examples of this, Just look at his ERA by month: April: 5.64 May: 2.40 June: 1.95 July: 7.01 August: 5.34 September: 3.26 If you look at the game log, you’ll see even more examples. Bassitt had four starts last season where he gave up five or more earned runs, but he also had four starts where he gave up zero earned runs. Consistently inconsistent. Part of the reason for this might be because Chris Bassitt relies on an eight-pitch mix to get his results: sinker, cutter, curveball, sweeper, changeup, slider, four-seamer and splitter, all of which he threw at least 4% of the time in 2024. Having such a diverse pitch mix comes with some major benefits, as well as some potential drawbacks. If you have several pitches in your arsenal, then it becomes much harder for opposing hitters to know what pitch is coming next, which in turn makes it harder for other hitters to square it up consistently. It also means that you have a pticher for every situation and every type of batter. We’ve seen this from Bassitt before. Back in 2022, his average exit velocity was 85.7 mph, which was in the top 5% in all of baseball. There is also some downside to this too. In theory, if you are throwing eight different pitches then it becomes harder to master each individual one. You could argue that if you’re only throwing three or four pitches then you could use all of your energy to narrow your focus, doing your best to truly master each pitch, working on making it repeatable so that your command doesn't suffer. Last season, Bassitt’s command was the biggest reason for his struggles. His walk rate jumped from 7.1% in 2023 to 9.4% in 2024. His chase rate fell significantly, and he also just hit the zone less often, as his zone rate fell from 52.6% in 2023 down to 50.1% in 2024, his lowest mark since 2016. In fact, Bassitt walked a batter in every single start he made last year, with the only exception being the start he made against the White Sox in Chicago (and that team walked less than any other team in baseball). There’s more to this than just the pitch mix, but it could be part of the problem. “I was trying to figure out lefties and do too much stuff last year, just kind of tinkering with things,” Bassitt told reporters during spring training. “It was a weird part of the part of the year for all of us, so I was just figuring stuff out and a lot of it just didn't work. I think me and Pete [Walker, Blue Jays pitching coach] have a really good game plan right now, and it's just still tinkering, but I think it's a lot more structured rather than kind of throwing stuff at a wall and hoping it sticks.” Bassitt made his spring debut on Friday, going 2 2/3 innings while striking out four and allowing one hit. Afterwards, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com noted that manager John Schneider talked about the possibility of limiting his mix to three or four pitches. “Pitch efficiency,” Schneider told reporters. “We always talk about the number of pitches that he has and I think it’s about honing in on three or four of them instead of five or six of them. That, and locating, being efficient. Last year, he fell into a lot of deep counts with foul balls and balls, things like that. He can stay on the attack and that’s what we’re looking for.” Bassitt's comments on the topic consisted of two words: “We’ll see.” For what it's worth, Bassitt did use all eight pitches in his start. Per baseball savant, he threw: Notably, of his 36 pitches, 23 were strikes, including seven whiffs on 15 swings. That is the exact type of strike-throwing the Blue Jays will be looking for from the veteran pitcher this season. This will be a big season for Bassitt, as he is entering the final season of his three-year, $63-million deal. On top of that, the Blue Jays don't have the most starting pitching depth, and they will rely on him to stay healthy and effective and keep pitching at a high volume as they stare down a very competitive AL East. One thing is for sure: we’re going to see a lot more from Chris Bassitt this spring. Whether or not he makes changes to his pitch mix remains to be seen, but if the walks become a bigger issue again this season, or if he loses the feel for some of his pitches, then maybe we will see him pare down his repertoire. If consistency continues to be a problem, that is something he and Walker may have to work on. No matter how the 2025 season shapes up for Bassitt, his first Grapefruit League start is a step in the right direction. View full article

Backup catcher is a position of need for the Blue Jays, and with Yasmani Grandal available, it's not too late to fix it. If Saturday's spring training game debut is any indicator, Alejandro Kirk is set up for a big season. He ended his day 1-for-2 with an RBI and did some very impressive things with the bat. In his first plate appearance, he fell behind, 1-2, then drove a Carlos Rodón changeup into left field (missing out on a hit due to a nice defensive play). In his second at-bat, Kirk got ahead, 3-0, then roped a 93-mph fastball into left for an RBI single, scoring Bo Bichette and knocking Rodón out of the game. The exit velocities on his two plate appearances were phenomenal: 109.6 mph off the bat in the first and 110.4 in the second, the two highest exit velocities in the game. In fact, those two numbers would have ranked second and fourth respectively out of Kirk's batted balls during the 2024 season. Kirk delivered once again on Tuesday, knocking another hard-hit RBI single up the middle against the Cardinals: There is no question about Kirk's importance for the Blue Jays this season, but the team will need more than one catcher. Last season Kirk led the team in games at the position with 103. That number was 123 in 2023. That's a heavy workload, and expecting it from him for three years in a row is a tall order. The role of a backup catcher is very challenging. They’ve got to know the pitching staff inside and out just like the starter catcher, but with minimum reps. They also have to prepare and plan for other teams just like the starting pitchers. On top of that, leadership skills and the ability to contribute to the team when called up are also important. As a team, the Blue Jays value defence highly, especially up the middle, and the catchers are no different. Danny Jansen was known as a hitting prospect coming through the pipeline, and the Blue Jays sharpened his defence as he became a regular big leaguer. The same is true for Kirk, a bat-first prospect who developed into one of the best framers in the game. The Blue Jays do not have good options at backup catcher. As things currently stand, Tyler Heineman is projected to be the team's primary backup, but even for a backup catcher, Heinemann is not that exciting an option. He has a career OPS of just .571. Even as a decent defender and framer, it's unlikely we want to run with the now 33-year-old for an extended period of time. The other options the Blue Jays have for their backup catcher spot include Ali Sanchez and Christian Bethancourt, both of whom are in camp on minor-league deals, and neither of whom have ever shown the ability to hit. Sanchez has a career OPS of just .438 and although he is a good blocker, the defence is just okay. Bethancourt's career .621 OPS doesn't feel much better, and although the former pitcher has an incredible arm, he's not much of a framer. If Kirk gets hurt or underperforms, the Blue Jays will be giving significant playing time to these options. Even if Kirk stays healthy and productive, one of these players will be catching at least 40 games, creating a giant black hole in the lineup. It's not too late for the Blue Jays to fill this backup role with a catcher who has veteran experience, is an elite framer, and in a perfect world, can hit left-handed to help against a tough right-handed pitcher. Out of the remaining free-agent catchers, Yasmani Grandal might make a lot of sense. Grandal's best skill behind the plate is his framing ability. According to Baseball Savant, he’s 86th percentile in framing, and according to Baseball Prospectus in 2024 he ranked: Seventh in Called Strikes Above Average 10th in framing runs 10th in Deserved runs prevented Grandal did all of this while hitting from both sides of the plate, swatting nine home runs and running a .704 OPS (.987 OPS after the All-Star break). His barrel rate (9.8%) and hard-hit rate (42.8%) were much improved from his time with the White Sox, and he did all of this while sharing time at catcher with the Pirates. Grandal is far from a perfect player. If he were, he’d cost a lot more money and would be signed by now, He’s got a poor throwing arm, is a candidate for one of the slowest base runners in baseball, and, going into his age-37 season, his peak years as a perennial five-win player are behind him. But having to rely on extended periods from Sanchez/Bethancourt/Heinemann would be a recipe for disaster, especially for a team whose offence underperformed last season. Grandal isn't perfect, but he could be had for cheap on a short-term deal, and anything but his worst-case projection would make him a significant upgrade over these options. Upgrading at catcher would help the Blue Jays raise their floor, but, crucially for a team that projections see as somewhat unlikely to make the playoffs, it could also raise their ceiling quite a bit. One thing is for sure: there still may be a move or two to be made for the Blue Jays between now and Opening Day. Adding Grandal's framing ability would make the Blue Jays better. View full article

With spring training games just around the corner, the Blue Jays lose a key piece of rotation depth and add several veteran relievers on minor-league deals. After an injury and some roster moves, the Blue Jays pitching staff will look different heading into the start of spring training games start this weekend. Adam Macko Tears His Meniscus The Blue Jays are on the hunt for pitching depth because they were hit with their first notable injury in the spring. On Thursday, three days after experiencing pain in his left knee during a bullpen session, left-hander Adam Macko underwent arthroscopic surgery for a torn meniscus. The Blue Jays have yet to place a timetable on a return, but he's likely to miss the first month of the season. As the Toronto rotation is heavy on pitchers on the wrong side of 30, they're bound to need Macko at some point this season. If the injury has any lingering effects, hinders his development, or keeps him out for a large chunk of the season, it would be a meaningful blow to the team's starting pitching depth. Macko was one of the team's few minor-league pitching success stories last year. He started the year in single-A Dunedin, made 16 starts in Double A, and made one start with the Bisons at the end of the season. His combined ERA for the three levels was 4.63, but that may have been inflated due a low 67.6% strand rate. His 3.96 FIP and 3.82 xFIP were more encouraging, and he walked more than 10 batters per nine innings over his 93 1/3 innings. The key part of the Teoscar Hernández trade, Macko appeared to be on track to start the season in triple-A Buffalo and was likely an injury or two away from making his big league debut at some point during the 2025 season. Now he will have to rest and rehab and get on the mound at some point later in the season. Blue Jays Sign Ryan Yarbrough Per Robert Murray, the Blue Jays and 33-year-old left-handed Pitcher Ryan Yarborough are in agreement on a minor-league contract, with an invite to spring training. Blue Jays fans will know Yarborough well, as the team traded for him (and cash) at the deadline last season in a move that sent fan favorite (and now special assistant to the GM) Kevin Kiermaier to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Yarborough was one of the bright spots for a historically bad Blue Jays bullpen, running a 2.01 ERA over 31 1/3 innings with the team. Out of all Blue Jays pitchers who worked predominantly out of the bullpen his 0.3 fWAR trailed only Yimi Garcia for best on the team. Over the full season, his 3.19 ERA was the best of his career, but he may been the recipient of some good fortune. His 4.64 FIP and 4.84 xFIP were much more in line with the 4.80 combined ERA that he ran 2021 to 2024. Yarborough will likely be battling for a bullpen spot. His ability to throw multiple innings at a time and throw from the left side of the plate should give him a solid chance at a spot on the opening-day roster, especially if he puts up a good performance over the coming weeks. As a veteran on a minor-league deal, Yarborough will have three chances to opt out of the deal if he isn't in line to make the club. The first chance will come five days before Opening Day. Bullpen Additions The Blue Jays have also made two more signings the help bolster the bullpen. Right-handed pitcher Jacob Barnes and left-handed pitcher Amir Garrett both signed minor-league deals and are non-roster invites to spring training. Blue Jays fans might remember Barnes from his 10-game appearance with the team in 2021. He joined the Blue Jays in mid-June that season and made five straight scoreless appearances to start his Blue Jay career. He then gave up multiple earned runs in three of his next four appearances before being outrighted to the minors. The 35-year-old will compete for a spot in the bullpen after pitching to a 4.36 ERA over 66 innings with the Nationals last season. Amir Garrett has had some big league success in the past, pitching primarily out of the Reds bullpen from 2018 to 2021. He’s since spent some time in Kansas City, and spent 2024 in the Angels system. Garrett could always generate strikeouts, running a career 26.7% strikeout rate. Walks have been an issue too, as he's run a 13.3% career walk rate. As a left-hander Garrett's competition for a bullpen spot will come from Yarborough, Brandon Little, Eric Lauer, Josh Walker, Easton Lucas, and Richard Lovelady. Garrett has never lacked for velocity, and despite his struggles in 2024, his fastball averaged 95.7 mph, a career-high. View full article

The 2024 season of the Toronto Blue Jays certainly didn't go how many of us expected it to. Finishing with 74 wins and selling off key pieces at the deadline was not the plan going into the season. Much of that was due to the pieces they added the prior offseason. Justin Turner hit just six home runs and was traded at the deadline; Kevin Keirmaier was re-signed and hit below .200 before he was traded at the deadline; the signings of Joey Votto, Daniel Vogelbach, and Paolo Espino didn't work. Even Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who was good in his short time here, was also sent packing by the trade deadline. It wasn't all bad for the players we acquired in 2024; there was one player we signed who actually showed some positive signs and could be a core piece for this team going forward and might also be one of the players who could make an impactful contribution to the team in 2025, and that player is Yariel Rodriguez. What happened in 2024? Rodriguez’s rookie season had some ups and downs; after not pitching at all in 2023 and pitching primarily in relief in the two years prior in Japan, The Blue Jays prioritized using him as a starting pitcher and made it a goal for him to increase his innings. He did just that, throwing 86.2 innings in the big leagues and another 20.1 In Buffalo for 107 total innings. And his performance wasn’t that bad either; a 4.47 ERA will play in the big leagues, and an 18.4% soft contact percentage was the best on the Blue Jays among starters who made at least five starts. He did show some glimpses of domination; on Canada day, he threw 6.2 innings of two-hit baseball against the Astros and followed that up with 6.0 innings, one hit allowed against the Mariners just five days later. The main problem with Rodriguez was he had an issue with walks; in fact, out of all 21 starts he made in 2024, he issued at least one free pass in all of them, and the 10.9% walk rate would have been behind only Trevor Richards, of players on the Jays who threw at least 50 IP in 2024. What Can Go Right in 2025? 2025 will be a big year for Rodriguez; with the Max Scherzer signing, he currently stands as the Blue Jays' sixth starter on the depth chart going into the season. But as we all know, it will take more than just five starters to get through a season. Max Scherzer is over 40 and battled injuries just last season, and Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, and Kevin Gausman are all on the wrong side of 30, and even Bowden Francis took a big inning jump from 2023 to 2024. So we know that Yariel Rodriguez will get an extended look sometime during the season. That's why it makes sense that the Blue Jays are trying to stretch him out during spring training. Rodriguez has the skill of inducing soft contact from batters, and it would be wise to try to maximize that skill going into the season. He will have to show an increase in command to take a big step forward, but it looks like Rodriguez might have already started doing that towards the end of the season in 2024. In this chart, Yariel started throwing his pitches in the zone more and getting better contact quality as the season went on. This is a good combination: Throw your pitches in the zone more and produce results against those pitches. It's not easy to teach a player to just command the baseball better, but if Rodriguez can continue on his late-season trend, he could take yet another step forward in 2025. How Will This Impact The Blue Jays? If a player performs better, the team will be better, and Rodriguez will be no different. The plus side with Rodriguez is that the Blue Jays have tons of flexibility in using him. As things stand now, the plan is to use him as a starting pitcher, and from a roster management standpoint, that makes a lot of sense. However, he provides some flexibility if the starting rotation stays healthy, if Alek Manoah returns sooner than expected, and if a player like Jake Bloss or Adam Macko shows they are ready and need a spot in the majors. The Blue Jays have the option of moving Rodriguez to the bullpen; he spent a lot of time pitching out of bullpens in Japan, where he had a 1.15 ERA with the Chunuchi Dragons in 2022, a role that help make his stuff play up. If Rodriguez turns out to be a fourth or fifth starter who can improve his command and maintain his ability to induce soft contact, then we could be looking at a guy who can be a 2-3 win player at the back end of the rotation. Alternatively, if he ends up in the bullpen, he could be a solid 6th or 7th-inning option for manager John Schneider and would help a bullpen that was the worst in franchise history in 2024. No matter where he ends up, few players on the roster could provide as much of a spark as Yariel Rodriguez in 2025. He might never be the 5 WAR All-Star starter, but every team needs these complementary players to take a step forward to help push the team into the playoffs, and Yariel Rodriguez may be the best bet out of any of them. View full article

Pitchers and catchers have officially reported for spring training, and here is everything you need to know from an exciting first day of camp. Vlad is still in extension talks, Ross Atkins puts the pressure on prospect Alan Roden, and more! View full video

As the Februray 18 deadline approaches, breaking down some possible reasons for the lack of a deal. With pitchers and catchers set to report to spring training this week and the NFL season officially behind us, the sports world turns its eyes to baseball. With every new season, we get new hopes of what the summer might bring, long nights at the ballpark, the crack of the bat, the roar of the crowd, and the dream of chasing a pennant. The Blue Jays and their fans have every reason to be excited too. The team has added notable free agents and major trades, and before long we will be seeing photos and videos of bullpen and batting practice sessions in Dunedin. No matter what happens this summer, one question will surround the Blue Jays: will Vladimir Guerrero Jr., entering what could be his final year before he becomes a free agent, get a long-term extension done? The case for retaining Guerrero is pretty clear. Entering his age 26 season, he has already had a phenomenal career: he's a four-time All-Star, an All-Star Game MVP, a Home Run Derby champ, a Gold Glove winner, and a two-time Silver Slugger winner. You could argue that he is just now entering the prime of his career, and he has said on multiple occasions that he loves the city of Toronto and would like to stay here long-term. The best time to sign Guerrero to a long-term deal was four years ago, and the second best time to sign him is today, but as every day brings us closer to his self-imposed deadline of February 18, it is worth considering the possible reasons for the hold-up? 1) Maybe the Blue Jays are trying to get a contract-year bump in performance. In theory, this could make a lot of sense, the Blue Jays know that in order to reach the postseason and make a serious run, they know they need to maximize the potential of the players they have on this roster, and no one has more high-end potential on this team than Guerrero. There is some proof that hitters see a boost in performance during their final year before free agency. We don't have to look too far. Aaron Judge was a pending free agent going into the 2022 season and notably put up a 62-homer, 10.5-WAR season on his way to an AL MVP. This strategy could easily backfire, but the Blue Jays may be placing a bet that a highly-motivated Guerrero may put together the best performance of his career so far, and the team as a whole will certainly benefit from that. 2) Maybe the Front Office is genuinely worried about his long-term performance. This might seem wild, as Guerrero has done things in his early career that almost no one in baseball can do, but consider this. Since his debut in 2019, Guerrero's -23 Fielding Run Value made him the 16th-worst defender in all of baseball. Likewise, his -14.8 baserunning runs above average make him the 11th-worst baserunner. Every bit of value he provides to the ball club comes solely from his bat. There isn't a perfect comp for Guerrero, but we can look at other big-bodied first basemen and see how they performed throughout their careers. Albert Pujols went from being a routine .900+ OPS bat right through his age 31 season, before averaging a .774 OPS from 2011-2021 Miguel Cabrera averaged a .961 OPS for his first 13 years, before posting just a .710 OPS from his age 33 season onwards. Prince Fielder averaged a .916 OPS from 2005 to 2013 until injuries caught up to him at the age of 30 and he was out of Major League baseball just three years later. There are exceptions to every rule and Guerrero is certainly different than these players. But the Blue Jays may not be sure they are going to get good production late into Guerrero's career. 3) Maybe the Blue Jays want to leave the decision to the next GM. This one might just be wishful thinking, as the Ross Atkins-Mark Shapiro era has had some positive moments, but the Blue Jays have yet to come close to winning a World Series with this] group in charge. As things currently stand, Atkins is under contract through the 2026 season and Shapiro is under contract for just the 2025 season. There is more to the job than putting a competitive team on the field, but I am reminded of when Alex Anthopolouls took over from J.P. Ricciardi in October 2009, and his first order of business was trading franchise icon Roy Halladay. This contract is one of the biggest decisions in franchise history, and if Atkins and Shapiro aren't certain about their long-term future, there could be some hesitancy to attach themselves to a player and to leave that decision to the next decision-maker. Ultimately, the Blue Jays have shown that they have the money and are willing to spend it on the top free agents. It seems logical that they would be interested in signing next offseason's biggest free agent (apologies to Kyle Tucker). Getting a deal done before the season so you have some certainty about 2025 and beyond can only be a good thing, and we will see if the Jays can get a deal done before the first full spring training workout. No matter what happens, this will be a very big year both for Guerrero and the franchise as a whole. Guerrero will go a long way toward determining how much success the Blue Jays have in 2025 and the many years going forward. View full article