What if Things Go Right? Five Surprises That Could Lead the Blue Jays to Glory in 2025

Baseball is truly an unpredictable game. No matter how many projection systems you look at or how well you think you know a player or a team, you really can't know how well a player is going to perform. Take last season’s Blue Jays, for example. How could you predict that the Blue Jays would have the worst bullpen in franchise history? Or that Bo Bichette would go from getting down-ballot MVP votes three seasons in a row to posting a negative WAR in just 81 games played? Or even that the Blue Jays would be a top-five team in baseball in home runs from 2021 to 2023, then to drop to 26th?

Being unpredictable isn't necessarily a bad thing. Surprises can come in a positive direction too. Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ernie Clement both had surprise three-win seasons. Chad Green proved he could stay healthy and be a good major-league reliever again. Spencer Horwitz didn't get called up until June, but ran a 125 OPS+ while hitting cleanup most of the season a very welcome surprise. That's how things go, and that's the reason the projections are generally accurate: most teams have good surprises and bad surprises, which tend to even out. Looking forward to the 2025 season, this Blue Jays roster is likely going to be unpredictable yet again. But with spring training right around the corner and optimism for the Blue Jays starting to rise, let's take a look at some unlikely, but not impossible storylines that help them reach their potential. Let's be clear, none of these scenarios is likely to happen. In fact, your friends at the bar might think you’re crazy if you bring them up. But none of these things is impossible either, and it would be good to explore the best-case scenarios.

1) What if second-half Bowden Francis is the real Bowden Francis?
Bowden Francis was dominant in the second half. Starting in August, he finished either first or second among all qualified starters in ERA (1.52), WHIP (0.54), and strikeout-to-walk ratio (8.00). It was clearly the best story of the second half of the season. Most projection systems don't see Francis repeating that, performance and honestly, he probably won't. But what if that's who he really is? You would be looking at Bowden Francis as not just the best pitcher on the Blue Jays, but one of the best pitchers in the game, and that would certainly change the outlook for the Blue Jays.

2) What if we get one last elite season from Max Scherzer?
Max Scherzer signed with the Blue Jays earlier this week, and conventional wisdom tells you that a pitcher in his 40s isn't likely to bounce back to stardom after showing signs of decline. But if there is any pitcher who can do it, it might be Max Scherzer. His 2023 whiff rate of 29% far off from his career average of 32%. He’s mentioned on record that he’s healthy going into the offseason, and who knows what he can accomplish if he's able to fully harness his competitiveness. If anyone can surprise us with one more elite season, Max Scherzer might be the best bet.

3) What if Andrés Giménez turns into the guy he was in 2022?
Just two seasons ago, Andrés Giménez looked like he’d be a superstar for years to come. A former top 100 prospect who was the key return in the blockbuster trade that sent Fransisco Lindor to the Mets in 2021, he turned it on in 2022. Giménez combined his elite defence and baserunning with .837 OPS, and when all was said and done he put up a 7.4-WAR season at the age of 23. It looked like it was just the beginning of a superstar career, but then the bat fell off, as Giménez posted an OPS of .712 in 2023 and .638 in 2024. His hard-hit rate dropped by nearly 10 percentage points too. It was enough of a downturn that Cleveland was willing to trade him away for salary relief.

Let's not forget that Giménez is only entering his age-26 season. He’s just now entering the prime of his career and he’s shown the ability to put up a seven-win season already. If the quality of contact can improve, we could be looking at another high-impact player this season.

4) What if Orelvis Martinez just keeps hitting home runs?
Orelvis Martinez might not even be on the opening-day roster, but he is certainly among the players who will get a good look this season. Before his 80-game PED suspension essentially ended his season, Martinez had an elite power stroke. His 17 home runs in triple-A Plate translate to one home run for every 18.8 plate appearances. For Reference, that's a higher rate than Gunnar Henderson, Max Muncy, and Teoscar Hernandez. Expecting Martinez to do that in his first look at big-league pitching is a tough ask, but for a Blue Jays team that desperately needs an influx of power and production, he has a chance to be that guy. 

5) What if Alek Manoah finally regains his for, upon return from injury?
Remember David Price? Who doesn't? Price showed exactly what a dominant second half-performance from a Blue Jay could look like. He joined the Jays at the deadline in 2015, went 9-1 with a 2.30 ERA over his 74.1 innings with the Jays, and helped the team soar to its first division title since the 1993 World Series. What if Alek Manoah can do the same thing? Manoa underwent a hybrid Tommy John surgery in June of 2024, and assuming no setbacks, he’ll be back in the second half. Now, similar to Giménez, he’s two years away from his last stretch of dominance, but in 2021 and 2022, Manoah was one of the best pitchers in baseball. His 2.57 ERA was third-best among qualified starters during that time.

What if a spot opens up in the rotation and Manoah can find that slider again? Could he turn into the guy he was in ‘21 and ‘22? Manoah has been putting in the work this offseason, and a strong second-half surge could be the difference between the Blue Jays going into the playoffs or being on the outside looking in.

As I said up front, none of these things is likely to happen. But the game is unpredictable, and if you combine that with the talent and grit of these Blue Jays, why couldn't we get a breakout from one of these five players? Either way, the 2024 Blue Jays had more negative surprises than positive ones. If you believe we are due for some positive surprises in 2025, this is are a good place to start.