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Captain_Obvious

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Everything posted by Captain_Obvious

  1. Captain_Obvious
    I think you got it the other way around. They believe Moreno will be very good and they also believe Varsho is going be at least as good in the OF.
  2. Captain_Obvious
    This. Also when the catcher you're signing is one of the best hitters on the team. You can give him reps at 1B and DH and he would still be very productive.
  3. Captain_Obvious
    I see. So you just looked up projection numbers and thought this is definitely the future for both players. I bet the Blue Jays FO completely ignores their own analytics department and follows a public projection system that has an 80th percentile outcome that is worse than the previous two years of established performance despite the player being at the beginning of his prime years. Just amazing.
  4. Captain_Obvious
    Varsho has been a 4+ WAR per 550PA for two years now. What exactly did you expect he'd cost? Who do you think would be a better return for Moreno?
  5. Captain_Obvious
    Extending Jansen at a reasonable price gives the Blue Jays more flexibility, not less. You can easily trade him for even more return if that is needed. In an age where teams are paying Vazquez $30 over 3 years, and Hedges $5M for a year, it is easy to imagine how you can get premium returns for 3 years of Jansen at $12M a year. Extending Jansen also allows the Jays to have a safety net if Kirk becomes less productive for whatever reason.
  6. Captain_Obvious
    It is not a good take at all. I will play this game too. Teo can get hit by pitch and break his wrist and lose all his power. Manoah can injure his elbow and become a replacement level pitcher. Gurriel can lose his power and .... oh wait... he already lost all power and had a lower ISO than f***ing Tapia in 2022.
  7. Captain_Obvious
    You are looking at this all wrong. We replaced 1 year of a 2.5 WAR OF and 1 year of a 1.5 WAR OF with 4 prime years of a 4+ WAR OF and 1 year of 2 WAR OF while adding a very good BP piece for 3 years. The blue jays added 2-3 wins for 2023 and are in a much better position for 2024 and 2025.
  8. Captain_Obvious
    Need to sign Jansen to 5 year 60M deal before he hits 35+ HRs while healthy in 2023.
  9. Captain_Obvious
    Yea. For 2023, Varsho in CF, Springer in RF, Teo in LF would have been great. But the current arrangement for BP and OF is not far behind in terms of expected overall production. The trade will hopefully continue paying dividends beyond 2023.
  10. Captain_Obvious
    It might be a mix. For hard defensive positions, defense is paid for in full. For other positions, players get more for offensive output.
  11. Captain_Obvious
    The writer over-indexed on Gurriel's hitting and barely mentioned any other facet of Gurriel's game that make him a below average MLB player overall. Gurriel is a non-factor. I have been advocating dumping him for a lottery ticket right from the beginning of the offseason. His inclusion made no difference for me.
  12. Captain_Obvious
    Are they? Can you give examples? Terrible offensive catchers are getting over 8M per year. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/omar-narvaez/13338/stats?position=C https://www.fangraphs.com/players/christian-vazquez/9774/stats?position=C Austin f***ing Hedges got 5M Kiermaier got 9M and it was not because of his awesome hitting.
  13. Captain_Obvious
    He is a 1-2 WAR player over 500PA. That is below average because average is 2 WAR. Espinal is average. Biggio is average. Gurriel is below average.
  14. Captain_Obvious
    We are not looking for players at DH and then pinch running them when they get on base. An OF should play defense and hopefully be good baser runner. Gurriel being "superior" offensively is a generous characterization. They are expected to be within 10 wRC+ of each other. Here is a more objective comparison: Going from Varsho to Gurriel results in: Offense: Very slight downgrade that can be completely mitigated with reduced time against tough lefties. Defense: Upgrade from one of the worst in the league to the very best. Baserunning: Upgrade from one of the worst OFs in the league to one of the best. Total value: Getting one of the top 10 OFs for 4 years vs a below average player for 1 year.
  15. Captain_Obvious
    Any opinion worrying about the inclusion of Gurriel in the trade is clueless.
  16. Captain_Obvious
    https://archive.vn/rGIzD
  17. Captain_Obvious
    I give the article an F. Focuses too much on Gurriel as if he was a major factor in the trade. He was a throw in. I know there was an article about how the Blue Jays needed to include him, but I am positive the conversation went like this: Haze: We need you to add something on top of Moreno. Atkins: I see, how about Horwitz or Irv Carter? Haze: No we want Gurriel to balance our offense. Atkins: f*** YES .. I mean .. Oh noes .. you are breaking my balls Haze .. you should know you are getting a great deal now.
  18. Captain_Obvious
    It is irritating to see this trade labeled as a win-now trade. Win-now trades is when you get back a player for 1-2 years, not 4.
  19. Captain_Obvious
    Don't sell Varsho short. Hall of fame or bust.
  20. Captain_Obvious
    This would be the cherry on top of a great off season. My wish list at the start was: 1- Kirk or Moreno for a long term Arizona OF. 2- Non tender Tapia to free up salary. 3- Trade Teo and Gurriel to free up salary and get something back. 4- No QO to Stripling. Use the $20 to get someone better. 5- Get 1 or 2 more good BP pieces. 6- Extend Jansen. FO and I have been on the same wavelength. They ignored all the mediocre OF trade targets and went after the right long-term solutions. Love it!
  21. Captain_Obvious
    I really like the team.
  22. Captain_Obvious
    It is a fair trade because we gave up significant value to get equally significant value back. I still love it because it improves the team significantly for the next few years.
  23. Captain_Obvious
    The 9? M per WAR formula works above a certain threshold. There are tons of 1 WAR position players you can get at league minimum.
  24. Captain_Obvious
    B prospect? Would you give a B prospect to pat Gurriel 6M for 2023? I wouldn't.
  25. Captain_Obvious
    Yes. The deal looks fair as it is.
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