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AMS528

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Everything posted by AMS528

  1. AMS528
    Moreno is a 24 year old catcher with 2.4 fWAR in 86 games, who is really good defensively, who walks at a solid rate and strikes out very little. If he develops a touch of additional power, he has a shot at putting out really great overall numbers for a few years. Varsho is an amazing unmatched fielder, but he is a bad hitter, is probably going to continue to be a bad hitter, is 28 years old not 24, and becomes a free agent 2 years earlier than Moreno. This isn't going to go down as a terrible trade value wise and shouldn't because Varsho is such a great fielder that he has a floor there, but you cannot be surprised, and you should probably expect that this is going to be a conversation for as long as Moreno succeeds. We obtained him for the #1 prospect in baseball, and that prospect is succeeding.
  2. AMS528
    I think it's fair to look past his first couple of years. He was very young to start and young hitters are often inconsistent/struggle. He's been above that mark 3 of the last 4 years and more importantly he's had a 166, 133, and 159 wrc+ in those three seasons. Those are very good hitting seasons. The one year he was below that mark was the only season of the four where he also significantly underperformed his peripheral stats. I do think we can consider that at least partially unlucky. He does suck on the field and may get moved to DH. But there's been some reconsideration on the penalty DHs get when calculating WAR. DHs are probably more valuable than they've been measured as, so that's an additional consideration.
  3. AMS528
    I think I would say top five is Judge, Ohtani, Soto, Alvarez, Freeman just based on consistency. Vlad is in that next five cause he hasn't shown the consistency yet.
  4. AMS528
    Vlad is now rapidly approaching his 2021 season hitting wise even with his terrible start.
  5. AMS528
    We better be hoping Gausman can bounce back next year cause this pitching staff is highly inadequate if he's not elite.
  6. AMS528
    I would love to get him in addition to Vlad and maybe shift Vlad to DH, but his best hitting season is like I noted above, worse than 2022 Vlad that everyone was annoyed by.
  7. AMS528
    High failure rate on those signings, but even by those standards, he's been worse than basically the entire top 20 list of international signings that year.
  8. AMS528
    Pressure of local boy who's definitely not as good as Vlad trying to replace Vlad would be so rough that I would just assume for failure. Naylor's best season is slightly worse than Vlad's 2022 season which we were annoyed by.
  9. AMS528
    So as far as I can tell Nimmala has the most HR's of any player 18 or younger in the minors this year. His .250 ISO is also by far the best for any teenager that's played in A ball or higher this year. Obviously the strikeouts are a huge concern, but that power is unmatched for his age right now.
  10. AMS528
    Lol how is Brandon Barriera still 5th on that list.
  11. AMS528
    So defensive numbers as they are calculated for WAR are a bit of a mystery to me. Would that mean based on Vlad's defensive numbers last year, and what he appears to be heading towards defensively this year, he would be more valuable as a basically exclusive DH if they were to adjust the penalty to the same as a 1B? He was -20.6 last year and -14.7 so far this year with plenty of time to accumulate last years number. And if 155 games at DH would be 5 runs and 0.5 WAR, does that mean a difference of about 8ish runs last year and probably this year as well? That would last year mean he would have been worth 2 WAR last year and this year if he keeps up his current pace, instead of being worth like 4.2 WAR he's worth roughly 5? That's not an insignificant chunk if that's the math on it.
  12. AMS528
    Yeah you hope he figures out the contact issues cause that is a lot of power for an 18 year old.
  13. AMS528
    And I think that definitely makes some sense. I've always felt the DH penalty is too significant.
  14. AMS528
    Kind of relevant to Vlad and his value. Apparently not something that makes a huge difference, but I am curious how his overall value looks like with that that adjustment. bWAR obviously has always been kinder to him.
  15. AMS528
    On July 13 he had a .799 OPS and today after his double it's .910. Also nice to see Barger hitting.
  16. AMS528
    I didn't even know he was still pitching this year. 29-67 with 5.56 ERA across 700 innings over the past five years. Amazing, just consistently went out there week after week for five years in a row to get shelled.
  17. AMS528
    This guy has done nothing but hit the ball since getting drafted. Has moved up really quickly since being drafted as well. Third level in two years and hasn't struggled yet. Solid deal. Farm is less depressing.
  18. AMS528
    This guy has done nothing but hit the ball since getting drafted. Has moved up really quickly since being drafted as well. Third level in two years and hasn't struggled yet.
  19. AMS528
    IKF is having a career year with the bat that he will likely never repeat again, they should absolutely look to trade him.
  20. AMS528
    Good prospects on down years. Snelling has been worse in every kind of way, but he's still just 20 in AA.
  21. AMS528
    I think I agree with Terminator here, his expected numbers are better this year because his contact is also better, but even with his changing batted ball profile year to year he hadn't had that kind of underperformance before. If he ends this year well, then you can look at the last four years and say that last year was the outlier I think and at least a chunk of that was luck based.
  22. AMS528
    I think looking at the last four seasons, it's possible to see 2023 and say he underperformed his batted ball profile. When he was underperforming it earlier this year, it was easier to say, he's just a batted ball underperformer, but now his numbers line up. And they lined up in 2022, and in 2021. So there's that I guess, that last year was a down year and one where he was at least a little bit unlucky.
  23. AMS528
    He's at 2.8 fWAR and projected to finish with between 4-4.5ish. He's at 3.4 bWAR and would be projected to finish with around 5. He's also not playing like a 3 WAR player either.
  24. AMS528
    Is there much of a chance that Yesavage could become that or is he more of a finished product (as I've heard he's super advanced)?
  25. AMS528
    Just an absolutely ridiculous heater. It's going to be an expensive extension, but at least now he's giving us reason to want to provide it. It also does matter that he's been an ironman. He never misses a game, and he basically can player near every game. That's been the case every single season of his career.
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