AMS528

I think Ernie will sit against righties here and there but he's going to mostly play, even with the splits, I think it's only reasonable he gets a lot of playing time because of the overall level of his play has earned it. His splits were also nothing like this last year, so no need to rely on them that closely. I think giving Gimenez fairly regular rest days should help out a bit. Having four guys playing at legitimately All-Star levels is awesome though. Kirk, Clement, Vlad, and Barger have all been at that level (if Bichette ups those hitting numbers a bit more he's borderline there as well). Nice to have depth. If only we had a real ace, I'd feel like this team would be set for a very deep run. I think unfortunately we've seen the last of Gausman as a real front end starter (although he's still solid). Gausman and Bassitt have both been solid, but aren't exactly who you want to hand the ball to first in the playoffs. I think if we got 70 innings out of Scherzer we'd count that as a big win now. Same with any positive innings out of Manoah. Saw this article on potentially tradeable players for the deadline. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6431296/2025/06/18/mlb-trade-deadline-big-board-players-postseason/ There's a few interesting names there (Kelly, Alcantara, Peralta).

Arjun NimmalaTrey YesavageRicky TiedemannKhal StephenOrelvis MartinezAlan RodenJonatan ClaseGage StaniferLanden MaroudisJohnny KingRJ SchreckJake BlossKendry RojasJosh KasevichYohendrick PinangoAdam MackoSam ShawJuaron Watts-BrownFernando PerezBrandon Barriera

Yeah that's why I had asked if anyone had noticed real changes, it's such a big swing. It's big enough that he's still tracking for about 4 WAR this year even though he's not hitting near the level you'd want him to.

Only semi connected to that, but the bWAR/fWAR divide on Taylor Walls is wild. Cause according to fWAR he's unplayable and anywhere from below average to slightly above average defensively, and according to bWAR he's the best defensive fielder in the world. He has 9.4 bWAR for his career and 0.8 fWAR.

I've missed more games than I'd like to this year, but can anyone tell me how legit Vladdy's defensive improvements have been? Is he genuinely above average out there and also not one of the ten worst baserunners in the game now? If he heats up at all (or gets at least closer to his expected numbers), he should wind up with a very good season cause those other numbers aren't dragging them down as much as in past years.

f*** the sox. Honestly I hope Devers feel incredibly petty and works hard on being a good 1B. He wasn't particularly in the right with how he dealt with things, but it sounds like Red Sox management is a disaster and how they managed this situation is emblematic of that.

Good for him. He's been playing in the system for a long long time and he's having a great season. With the OF depth it was possible for him to get lost in the shuffle so glad he's getting a call up even if it's very brief.

I've been super negative on Atkins mostly because of the farm (free agency they've tried and he's obviously done well with trades). My view was the failures last year were largely being caused by a lack of reinforcements from the farm arriving cause the major league talent on the whole wasn't that bad. The 2017-2022 drafts overall have been pretty rough, but nailing a couple of drafts (plus a player or two from those prior drafts like Barger eventually turning out) can change things quickly. It's early but the returns on the 2023 and 2024 drafts have a decent number of positives so far, plus some of the players acquired at the deadline. I said this elsewhere but it's very nice to follow the minors and see good performances compared to how sad last years minor league follow was. They can even deal someone for a starter.

I mean to what extent does it matter and not matter? Like we obviously don't mean hitting coaches shouldn't exist cause they're useless (unless you did mean that which I doubt). So we're running on the assumption that they do matter at least a little. We know hitting philosophies broadly matter because the meta for hitting has changed significantly over the last decade and a half as hitters have adapted to more and more velocity from pitchers. Teams will have fluctuations but year to year of course, but it does seem to me to make sense that overall hitting philosophy being instilled by a team matters. And if you have one that is better suiting to hitting that existed in a low velocity era, than you may actually negatively impact your hitters. I think that's feasible, and would at least explain some the drastic change here along with some better luck this year.

He's 7th in the league in OAA with 8 and he's played 16 games. It's absurd. He can easily be solidly below average at the plate and still super valuable.

Schreck and Pinango have not slowed down the slightest since they hit AAA. Lot of OF depth available right now. Following the minors last year was a demoralizing experience, it's nice to be able to see several great performances happening.

I think they'll wind up doing a mix of Barger in the OF with occassional 3B starts, and I think it's what may make the most sense to get everyone into the lineup consistently. Ernie can get 3B starts and Gimenez doesn't need to play every single day so he can do some 2B as well (maybe Gimenez can do SS on a Bichette off day?). Springer needs to DH pretty regularly since his defense is horrific but he's been our best bat (and his underlying numbers show he's genuinely bounced back). Probably just need to be flexible regularly to get the best lineup out there. Depends on how Gimenez looks with the bat as well, he's better than he was in the ABs he had, but also the Barger/Clement duo has been so good that you need to let them play even if you're paying Gimenez 20 million a year.

Looks like Gabriel Moreno is starting to fulfill some of that top prospect potential now. 2.1 WAR in 47 games. Lining up to be a big year for him. Most of the value seems to be from his defense, although he's hitting solidly as well.

Or for a slightly hopeful comp for Nimmala, look at Corey Seager's BABIPs through the minors. Regularly higher than .350 to above .400.

Nimmala's got another HR, back into the league lead with 9. Single and a double as well, OPS is up to .940 apparently. He's on a heater, he's going to rapidly rise on the lists.

Roden has been absolutely raking and hitting with plenty of power since he was sent down. No strikeouts and still walking at a good rate. Hopefully he's not just AAAA guy who's too good for AAA but not quite good enough to hack it in the show. Small sample but he was a decent fielder and neutral baserunner when he was up here, so he doesn't need to much more than average with the bat to stick around.

I think he might be at this point. He has over 100 plate appearances this year and he's striking out at a 18.7% rate which is a pretty remarkable improvement. He's 19 so I'm sure they don't want to rush him up to AA, but as we know strikeout rates start communicating good info pretty early, so he's probably figured out something here. He keeps this up through June and maybe he should get some AA at bats by July/August.

Future top 10 prospect.

I feel like last year was depressing cause they lost a lot. This year is currently a real different level of depressing cause it doesn't appear there's any bounceback coming, they are paying an absurd amount of money to players delivering nothing, there's nothing in the immediate pipeline. We also signed a starting pitcher who can't throw more than 50 pitches at a time without missing weeks collapsing our starting pitching depth. It's a long term depression. This one is harder to nail done but it also appears we have ineffective philosophies when it comes to hitting and maybe even when scouting prospects for trades. Fans aren't dumb, if this keeps up the attendance will collapse because people know there's no hope.

You know the overall idea of it is just so remarkably dumb if it really is the case the Jays spent the last few years focusing on contact over power. In an era where batting averages have dropped every year to around .240 now, where pitchers strikeout more batters, and utilize more relief pitchers there is a significantly lessened ability to string together a few singles in a row to get a run or two. You've gotta focus on quick damage cause you're unlikely to get regularly get sustained long innings of hits. The odds are just incredibly against you.

New Hampshire is hitting a collective .197 with a .587 OPS. That is so remarkably bad that it's hard to believe. Their hitting numbers are obviously dead last, and the difference between them and the next worst team is the same as the difference between the second worst team and the next 6 teams.

It's pretty remarkable to create a team that can't hit (and has declined in hitting for years), that also has inadequate starting pitching depth, and also has no immediate help available to call up from the AAA or AA level for 250 million dollars. That takes some long term mistakes across several areas. If our hitters do not turn it around, this team is so screwed going forward for years. We're basically going to praying on the prospects under the AA level to start figuring things out. I swear to god if this team f***s up Nimmala who definitely seems to have the power and overall talent to be a top 10 prospect by nerfing his power, I will be so pissed.

I'm glad to see Vlad has started his Keith Hernandez at the plate impression In April instead of May this year. The power should kick in by May I hope. His defense has apparently been a bit better in a small sample as well so I think it's going to line up into a pretty big year.

It was .394 yesterday and should be clear above .400 after today. I noted in the game thread, but his xwOBA has matched with his actual output basically every single season besides 2023. He's fine and he'll probably be very good this year.

Nice win. Vlad's xwOBA is probably above .400 after today. He's had 1 year out of 6 where that number wasn't the same or close to his actual hitting numbers at the end of the season. Zero concerns with his hitting for now. Bichette's on it as well. If those two play (plus Gausman) play like stars it'll paper over other concerns.