AMS528

Genuinely great trade. Six years of control with a basically ready to go starting pitcher for a two month rental. Plus Kikuchi loves Toronto. Trade Bassitt and bring Kikuchi back in the winter.

Gone for likely all of next year, and suspended for PEDs. What a duo.

Fangraphs updated their top 100. https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board Orelvis at 99 and RT at 100. Nearly but not quite dropping out of there.

It's funny the Jays subreddit is usually a hugbox for the players and hates Atkins but they like this deal. And it's true you can't expect that much for an expiring contract player with a history of injury concerns having a mediocre year. What we got is fairly reasonable.

Yeah I chimed in about how you were wrong that Vlad is a 1-2 WAR player and you responded with something entirely irrelevant to what I said.

Are you illiterate? I said he has value and would get a decent return, no where except in your own head did I write that we would have a powerful farm system by trading him. And my response was more about the stupidity of calling him a 1-2 WAR player. Which you didn't respond back to because of how obviously wrong it was.

I was aware haha. But also I think anytime anyone makes a vaguely political post they should really just quote that Olerud bit.

D'Arnaud with the best career, and also one of the widest percentage gap of almost any player between bWAR and fWAR (I think by raw numbers Mo Rivera has a huge discrepency but not as large as a percentage). He has 20 fWAR and 8.8 bWAR. Not super surprising he had the best career, he really became the top prospect quick after the trade. Drabek was a guy who was way overvalued as a prospect back then, and wouldn't even be considered near that level of prospect these days. Interesting to see how he was a top 30 piece.

Just recollection. I think I made a few posts about it. And here I replied to John where he mentions it's at the 23rd percentile on June 28.

Not political please do not censor. Only making point about "loser" attitudes. Vance has loser attitudes and that is what I am commenting on, nothing at all politcial so do not respond with anything political, only thoughts on the winner vs. loser attitudes.(Credit: Olerud363)

A 35% strikeout rate as a 24 year old in AA doesn't bode well, but maybe they figure that out.

Sure, long term they absolutely are. But when they potentially start to flame out this early it doesn't even create trade chip value. https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-international-prospects-signing-day-2023 Like you can search up the seasons for the top 15 here, and Bonilla is having pretty easily the worst season of any of those signings besides Shim who has been injured. Salas is having a poor season, but he is literally in high A ball as an 18 year old so that can't be compared to Bonilla's struggles two levels below that. Yeah international signings can be a lottery, but relative to the rest of the international guys signed that year he's also really bad. Lots of that top 15 are having solid value raising seasons.

Hah yeah it could really be ugly, but like I mentioned earlier, he's horrific at 1B and it doesn't use his one strength which is his arm. He has reasonably average sprint speed as well. I'm not saying it would work out well necessarily, but maybe it's worth a shot.

Yeah Tirotta I considered which is really why I said FCL to New Hampshire. I see both him and Cancel are infielders. Excellent, that's exactly where every other Buffalo call-up played.

If you guys want to look at sustainability, Vlad's launch angle sweet spot has crept up from 20th percentile to 32nd percentile since May. Honestly genuinely good news on that front. He's been putting together the better aspects of his 2022 and 2023 seasons. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/vladimir-guerrero-jr-665489?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb Since the lowpoint of his season in April, from April 26th onwards he's played 74 games at 319/375/528 good for a 155 wRC+. There's good signs. Get him away from 1B to RF, where who knows maybe it even encourages him to maintain his current fitness levels and yeah we can sign him long term and feel ok that there's a floor there.

J.D Vance has incredible loser energy. 100% podcast loser energy. Makes terrible jokes, had a personal angsty blog, licking boots to compensate for earlier statements. Pure unadulterated loser energy.

Jesus Christ Enmanuel Bonilla has been horrific for a 4.1 million dollar signing. 35% strikeout rate in FCL and not even any power to compensate so far. Alan Roden has been pretty bad in AAA since his promotion. Walks and strikeouts haven't been bad at least, but he's not hitting at all. Besides the Buffalo call ups, there is basically not a single real positive performance I can see for hitters from the FCL on up to New Hampshire. Like it is barren. Nimmala managing to recover his year slightly is the best news we've got. It's no wonder that there's like 10 posts every two weeks in this thread. It's just sadness. There's I guess some pitchers ( Trenton Wallace, Fernando Perez, Watts-Brown) who've looked decent but nothing very exciting. I think post Horwitz call up and with Jimenez having a decent shot at losing his prospect status with all of Bo's injuries, the Orelvis suspension and RT being injured all year, this is pretty easily a bottom 5 farm system, and arguably the worst farm system in the majors. "Bare cupboard". The deals for Kikuchi/Green/Garcia better bring something decent.

https://x.com/scottymitchtsn/status/1816079288560472338?s=46 Honestly just take him into the back and shoot him now. Can't get any luck with these guys. It's starting to feel like this is going to be another lost season developmentally for RT. Hopefully nothing that leads to an additional lost season essentially. If he does, well then you start to consider him more like a lottery ticket you're hoping to get really lucky with, and if he's not a reliever than that's a win.

We should have just tried to figure out if there was any way for Vlad to play in the OF and get some value out of his arm instead of sticking him at first where struggles all the time and never uses the one part of his defensive strength. He still has average sprint speed, he's not a slow guy out there.

6.3, 3.3, 1.3, 3.3 (projected) is not a 1-2 fWAR 1B. Get out of here. You don't take his worst season and decide that's the amount he produces, it's ridiculous. Vlad would get a decent return, he's the third best hitting 1B in the league this year (behind Harper and Freeman), and his value is hurt by his defense and baserunning, but teams are going to value a 140 wRC+ hitter who is still only 25 years old.

Vlad just bleeds so much value elsewhere because of his lack of range. His base running seems to have the opposite problem of last year. He never advances and that's hurting him there. His bat has genuinely been back for months. He's hit a ton of home runs now since his slow power start.

It's definitely that one cause it was posted to reddit and was on the top of the Jays subreddit for a little bit.

This persistently comes up, but isn't quite right for the trade deadline thread especially with Bo injured through the deadline. It's going to get discussed past the trade deadline so I figured maybe a separate thread was appropriate. It's basically the two most important decision the team has to make, and really will set the expectations of where we're going for the next few years. Bo I think we know is incredibly unlikely for an extension. Vladdy by all accounts and his own words really wants to stay here for his career. I am genuinely fine with a Vladdy extension at this point. He's never going to probably play to the level of whatever extension he gets cause he's such a s***** baserunner and his defense is below average, but I think I do believe in his bat to be solid at least. Bo's injury filled season has potentially f***ed us. We're not going to get the value we want out of a guy who is probably not going to stay here anyways. An early offseason deal is best because we really should be targeting someone like Kim if we want to keep competing. It may just be best take what we can rather than hoping he has a good start to the year and then dealing him at next years deadline. Ideally he comes back and has a good end to the season but I'm pretty skeptical at this point.

It is absolutely not easy to acquire a power hitting 1B. There's only one Freddie Freeman and he went to LA. And past that you have Bryce Harper. After that there is really not anyone who is a consistent star which is why even this version of Vlad is basically a top 5 1B. He's been the 5th best hitter among 1B this season, that's how little 1B depth there is in the league.

I remember when he became a batter and had some good numbers but it was Vegas, and then he sucked after we called him up. We had so many guys who put up great numbers in Vegas but it wasn't ever possible to know if they were actually any good. David Cooper (a proto Spencer Horwitz), Brad Emaus, Arencibia, list just goes on. Also looking at those teams I saw Brian Dopirak, who I was very excited about after he had a huge AA season. Honestly surprising that he never managed to get a single major league AB. He got as close as you could.