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AMS528

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Everything posted by AMS528

  1. AMS528
    Sure, but I think reading that makes it seem possible that they weren't particularly happy and when that happens you clean up what you say for your employer. I didn't get into it earlier, but I think it's a little weird how no one seems to think there's any chance that's what happened? I feel like that's happened many times across leagues from the NBA/NHL/NFL/MLB. I feel like it happens in the NBA relatively frequently even. Why would it be that unlikely?
  2. AMS528
    When a guy just hits at every level, and has never been old for his level either it's worth noticing for sure. He's been ridiculous since the slow start, and that can be expected when you get traded initially. We've had him playing at 3B and 1B primarily with a single start in RF. Pirates also basically just had at 3B with a few starts in RF. He's going to be interesting next year in AAA.
  3. AMS528
    I think this may be accurate. I don't think he was ever going to get like the Lindor contract but I think with another good season he'd have been looking at 200 milion and I think that's what was reported a couple of times. He's going to be looking at a lot less than that without a really good season next year. One bad season can be an anomaly, two bad seasons is not, it's a patter and now execs are more skeptical. If he's with the Jays next season he's working his ass off to gun for a new contract, if he still sucks it's cause he's very likely broken. Risk there is we're not going to get almost anything as a return, but if the issue is we're not getting much in the offseason anyways that's a little more tolerable as a risk to take.
  4. AMS528
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2024/08/18/ethan-holliday-2025-mlb-draft-top-prospect-jackson/74842574007/ Nothing new here really, just more confirmation of what we've heard for the past few months. At this point we have to hope Bo comes out with one decent month to up his value a little more for the offseason.
  5. AMS528
    Biggio had at the exact same age mind you, the better first two years of performance without a doubt. 4 WAR in 160 games with pretty similar power numbers. Most people were pretty high on him. Schneider's approach has fallen apart earlier than that, and he's basically performing exactly like Biggio in 2022. However much you hate Biggio's approach they're coming to the exact same results he had in 2022 with practically identical numbers across their savant pages.
  6. AMS528
    Given your hatred of Cavan Biggio I'm almost surprised at your optimism on Schneider. They basically have super similar batting profiles and even their usage potential as utility players. Launch angle guys with excellent chase rates who basically entirely rely on those two things.
  7. AMS528
    Maybe this is ill-advised or a waste of a potentially good platoon, but given the statcast numbers, and his bat (so far), it feels like Horwitz could put up good value at 2B. Is it more valuable to the team to do possibly effective platoon and stick him at DH (plus starts at 1st and 2nd on occasion) where his bat is potentially just ok?
  8. AMS528
    When your two best, and only top 100 prospects go from: 1) #2 starter potential down to if they become a back end starter you'd be happy with it now 2) PED suspension It's going to be rough as hell. Getting anything at all from RT is now the hope. He went from his 50th percentile outcome being at least a starter to his 50% outcome being a mediocre reliever and that may be me being hopeful. We could see him in the fall league next year if things go ok. And then being built back up. From a 2024 potential arrival to 2026. We need this years draft class/a couple of the pickups from the deadline/next years draft class to all hit to take us into an above average farm system.
  9. AMS528
    Feel like most of the shine is off of Davis Schneider now. He's still only going to be 26 next year, but there's some strong Cavan Bigigo vibes there. Unless he has a strong end of the year can't imagine he's got more than a utility role going into next year. We've probably got a few too many infield utility player types, Clement/Jimenez/Schneider/Barger all fall into that category, and now we've got Wagner as well. At some point Orelvis will be up post suspension. I want to see them stick with Horwitz at 2B cause I've got more faith in his bat there. Barger is still entirely a question mark and Jimenez hasn't shown much. If we're lucky one of those guys can be a starter for a while and my money is on Horwitz. If we trade Bo and sign/trade for a replacement or if we decide to stick with Bo then we definitely should be seeing what reliever we can get for some of our utility pieces. Clement's had the strongest showing so far as a bench piece I think.
  10. AMS528
    The Devers deal is kind of what I'm expecting.
  11. AMS528
    If I have to watch Vladdy hit a trillion home runs against us as a Red Sox in his favorite hitting park just kill me now.
  12. AMS528
    Ah the "bare cupboard" approach. I wonder what kind of dressing down 2015 Shapiro would give 2024 Shapiro for the state of it. Also I'm in complete agreement about the rotation. Berrios has been a fringe starter for 2 out of the last 3 seasons so now you have to hope for a good performance from him instead of expecting one. A s***** year from him is no longer the outlier. Man we went at the end of 2022 from a rotation with two number 1 type pitchers (Gausman/Manoah), a very solid potential #3/4 in Berrios and after the Bassit signing, and some combination of Kikuchi/Ryu/White to round it out with the expectation that Tiedemann would possibly be on the way if he had a really good year. Even after Manoah's implosion Kikuchi being very solid papered over that last year and there was still Tiedemann. Now we basically have a good mid rotation, with no certainty on either the back end or at the front end for a 1/2 if Gausman doesn't bounce back.
  13. AMS528
    That's not even a joke really, it's basically true. IKF, Turner and Horwitz are the only other above average batters, IKF and Turner are gone, IKF was injured anyways and Horwitz has only played in 50 games. Their 9th out of 15 teams in the AL offensively, and I gotta think they'd be close to last without him.
  14. AMS528
    Vlad should wind up with 20 bWAR by the end of the year, and I do feel like people look at that for HOF cases cause they have all the HOF numbers etc.
  15. AMS528
    I agree it would be annoying to him, both because I do think he cares about performing, and also if he had done this the past two years, either he'd have signed a ridiculous extension already or would be expecting a 400 million dollar deal as a free agent. I've noted this before but I do think now we can consider last year an outlier with some seriously bad luck, given the difference from his expected results. He would have otherwise probably have had a season between a 130 to 140 wRC+.
  16. AMS528
    It's been about 3.5 months now of a tear and his wRC+ is 166. The same as it was in 2021. He's all the way back.
  17. AMS528
    I think it's a bit basic to continually pound the expected hitting numbers, but after Vlad's numbers started matching his expected ones, I think it feels more reasonable. In which case it should really apply to Kirk who has to be one of the biggest underperformers in baseball this year. WOBA of .282 and expected to be .336. If he was at his expected or even underperforming it by like twenty points instead, he's worth at least 2-2.5 WAR already and we're talking about one of the better catchers in baseball. He's been better after a terrible start, and he's continued to improve the last couple of weeks.
  18. AMS528
    On that note, Vlad's is up to 58th percentile. Which is a huge increase from last year and even higher than it was in 2021. Interestingly his actual launch angle (6.9) is still a decent bit lower than both last year and and 2021.
  19. AMS528
    Yeah agreed. No discussions about where we'd trade him to as well though. Bo's future earnings also really hugely depend on next year. He's not Baez, and I think his ability to make contact is obviously much better, but a free swinging SS, who is not great defensively might raise some questions for GMs. There's like a 150 million dollar potential difference for him based on how next year goes.
  20. AMS528
    Couple more, and the last one was his last comment. I wouldn't think Rogers would close the tap at this point, make no sense to do that.
  21. AMS528
    I think roughly 14 pages worth of these posts are about Vlad and there's been maybe 1 page of discussion about Bo, which is interesting. He's had a horrible year, but he also has the better history of performance. Despite that there's essentially there's zero hope, and a significantly reduced desire to sign him to an extension. And his year has been so miserable no one even wants to come up with potential trades that might happen in the winter. Tough times.
  22. AMS528
    Here is Blake Murphy's thread to follow regarding Shapiro's remarks. A few bits so far: That definitely does feel like Atkins is back although I would not expect him to say anything too strong while the season is still going. It is I think a real stretch to say the team has done a good job developing position players. They've been ok at best. Of the Bisons, Schneider has fallen off significantly and always appeared like a pretty precarious profile. Clement is maybe a borderline starter and is already 28. Horwitz might have a shot if he sticks at 2B. Jimenez and Barger have not shown much yet.
  23. AMS528
    I think he could play the outfield pretty well given the opportunity (cause why couldn't he at this point), obviously he can't cause of the health of his arm. There's a Mike Trout 10-11 WAR season in Ohtani if he ever got to do that. Comforting for the Dodgers to know that if he can't pitch for whatever reason forever in the future they can easily just decide to stick him in the OF. I like the idea that if everything possible broke right for Ohtani, and you got one of his better hitting/pitching/baserunning seasons together and let him play the field for part of the season he'd be worth like 15 WAR. Most talented baseball player in history. Very skeptical there's any reasonable argument against now.
  24. AMS528
    A question here, would that be because of his very good minor league numbers? Just his major league numbers would show that it was a reasonable (but not necessarily the likelier) probability. The season before his expected numbers would have him right around like 90 wRC+, and the season before he was better and his batted/expected lined right up at his 100 wRC+.
  25. AMS528
    Moreno is not terribly overweight and a soulcrushingly bad baserunner which I think is an additional difference that's fair to point out. He has graded out as a completely neutral runner this year which if Kirk ever does we would consider a miracle. Also this doesn't say much to me, because I actually like Kirk in spite of that, and he's a much better hitter than his numbers show. His power is definitely better. I don't know if he has the endurance to play enough games to not need a solid backup, but Kirk can be a good enough hitter to be worth like 3 WAR in a season easily. Kirk is a good player with limitations and he'll be better next year. I believe in his steamer600 projections. Also am entirely aware Moreno was temporarily #1 prospect, but doesn't make it not technically true that we didn't trade away a #1 prospect. But that's a fair point, we did not trade away the #1 prospect. And he would still be very valuable as a trade piece at #12.
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