AMS528

I feel like last year was depressing cause they lost a lot. This year is currently a real different level of depressing cause it doesn't appear there's any bounceback coming, they are paying an absurd amount of money to players delivering nothing, there's nothing in the immediate pipeline. We also signed a starting pitcher who can't throw more than 50 pitches at a time without missing weeks collapsing our starting pitching depth. It's a long term depression. This one is harder to nail done but it also appears we have ineffective philosophies when it comes to hitting and maybe even when scouting prospects for trades. Fans aren't dumb, if this keeps up the attendance will collapse because people know there's no hope.

You know the overall idea of it is just so remarkably dumb if it really is the case the Jays spent the last few years focusing on contact over power. In an era where batting averages have dropped every year to around .240 now, where pitchers strikeout more batters, and utilize more relief pitchers there is a significantly lessened ability to string together a few singles in a row to get a run or two. You've gotta focus on quick damage cause you're unlikely to get regularly get sustained long innings of hits. The odds are just incredibly against you.

New Hampshire is hitting a collective .197 with a .587 OPS. That is so remarkably bad that it's hard to believe. Their hitting numbers are obviously dead last, and the difference between them and the next worst team is the same as the difference between the second worst team and the next 6 teams.

It's pretty remarkable to create a team that can't hit (and has declined in hitting for years), that also has inadequate starting pitching depth, and also has no immediate help available to call up from the AAA or AA level for 250 million dollars. That takes some long term mistakes across several areas. If our hitters do not turn it around, this team is so screwed going forward for years. We're basically going to praying on the prospects under the AA level to start figuring things out. I swear to god if this team f***s up Nimmala who definitely seems to have the power and overall talent to be a top 10 prospect by nerfing his power, I will be so pissed.

I'm glad to see Vlad has started his Keith Hernandez at the plate impression In April instead of May this year. The power should kick in by May I hope. His defense has apparently been a bit better in a small sample as well so I think it's going to line up into a pretty big year.

It was .394 yesterday and should be clear above .400 after today. I noted in the game thread, but his xwOBA has matched with his actual output basically every single season besides 2023. He's fine and he'll probably be very good this year.

Nice win. Vlad's xwOBA is probably above .400 after today. He's had 1 year out of 6 where that number wasn't the same or close to his actual hitting numbers at the end of the season. Zero concerns with his hitting for now. Bichette's on it as well. If those two play (plus Gausman) play like stars it'll paper over other concerns.

The problem here is that they should have already traded him if they were that far apart (as it's been implied) on their numbers with Vlad. Because you are in a worse position in lots of ways like I noted earlier. If they do well, then Vlad is going to get that ridiculous contract, and the Jays are like a 50/50 shot to make the post season. Nice if they do, but they may also be close and miss like you're saying which is worst case. Either way in that case Vlad's valuation across the league is higher cause he's putting together back to back good years and he goes elsewhere maybe. If we suck, then there's a decent chance that Vlad is also not doing that well, in which case he's going to fetch less value at the deadline (which is already less value because a team is not getting a full season of Vlad). I don't think there's a positive spin here, I think this situation mostly sucks. You listed a bunch of potential scenarios earlier where some did not end badly for the Jays, but I think on a percentage basis, the worse group of scenarios are statistically likelier by a chunk.

Like if they were as far apart as this is indicating, how do you not realize that and then drag out this extension talk all the way to spring training. Passive like you said, just a failure on the front office to figure it out in either direction. People brushed over it at the time, but this happened with Donaldson, and that was a failure on their part. Now we've got both Bo and Vladdy sitting around and as we know freeing up their money is useless because players have to want to come here and that's no guarantee. They've been chasing the market the entire way with this Vladdy thing. It was noted in an article that Tatis changed the market and the Jays couldn't sign Vladdy to their number, given what he made in arb, it probably would have been fine in hindsight, would have just bought his arb years and his free agent years would have been significantly cheaper than discussions that took place now. Then Soto set the market and they were screwed again. It's their jobs to be able to predict and see how things will play out and they have utterly failed. Now if Vladdy sucks, the team probably will as well, and he will return less in a trade. If they don't trade him, even if his value is cheapened it means more teams can get in on him and there's no guarantee he sticks around at that lower price. He does great and now you're probably paying even more for him if you can manage it. There's not really any good outcomes that take place from here on out unless you're trading him in the next three weeks, and even then teams know you're on a timeline.

What the actual f*** is wrong with you.

Cmon how can anyone possibly argue that Rickey didn't underperform as a Jay. That's ridiculous, he was a HOF player, playing at a HOF level who performed like a decent player for us in the regular season. It doesn't mean his play wasn't helpful, it just means he didn't play like the superstar he was.

2021 makes me sad. It's not usually that the best team in the competitive window misses the playoffs but that's what happened to us. Springer/Semien/Vlad/Bo/Teo was an absolute wrecking ball of a lineup, with LGJ/Espinal/Jansen/Kirk also having solid years. Then you get the Cy Young version of Robbie Ray with the best version of Berrios we ever saw, Manoah/Ryu/Matz rounding it out. We should have just signed Semien again. It wasn't a responsible deal, but he's one of my favourite Jays even with just the one season.

7 year run overall though of making the playoffs. That's a long stretch to manage that.

Lots of athletes want to win though. They're competitive people, and they are going to have the confidence that they won't be the person replaced either. Also guaranteed contracts so it's not as if they lose money if they get moved down the order.

Maroudis is coming back from injury, Manoah is a complete question between the injuries and other struggles, Tieds is at this point with all the injuries a complete question mark, Yesavage has never pitched in the minors yet, Rojas pitched decently but only 62 innings last year (plus 15 less great fall innings), Watts-Brown had good strikeout numbers but struggled a lot with control. Bloss could be fine and we did not develop him. The decent group is mostly a group of questions and unknowns. They could turn out, but the issue here is that if that's the decent group it's sad that there's basically no one (outside of Bloss maybe with Houston) that you could point to and say unequivocally had a really great year in the minors.

Every team has failed pitching prospects. But if you take a glance at the lower levels for the Braves they have a few guys who aren't quite well known yet but had excellent years in 2024. Certainly more of those brightspots than we had even between just like Hackenberg and Braun who are both 22 with room for development and will both be at AAA. Waldrep's also still just 22. That's three 22 year old prospects at AAA. Plus AJ Smith-Shawver. I think they basically have enough guys who had good years in 2024 to have possibilities. They drafted some guy in the 17th round who immediately threw 20 great innings in A ball. We certainly don't have as many guys who threw over 100 innings successfully in the minors. I have no doubt the Braves will plug in some of them at some point this season (maybe successfully, maybe not). We have some guys of interest, we have very few guys with any kind of track record with making regular starts.

Yeah it is, but we really weren't supposed to be back here again. Shapiro's bare cupboard comment gets more grating to me to remember every year that goes by. Meanwhile the Braves develop three new pitchers every single season.

From Passan Very fun reading here. If Shatkins either don't manage to make some solid signings to go into the season + extend Vlad, or make the decision to rebuild and make the trades to start that and instead go into the season with some minor moves and no Vlad extension they both need to be shot into the sun. Unsurprising really that the farm is making an impact not just on failing to affordably replenish the Jays current roster but also turning off free agents. Some media member should really ask Shapiro about the "bare cupboard". https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/43261112/teams-winning-mlb-offseason-need-move-dodgers-yankees-mets-braves

Everytime someone posts that number gets higher. Guys we were talking about a 250 to 300 million extension midway through the season. Genuinely painful that 500 million is a real possibility now. Is there some blame on Atkins there for not moving fast enough to try and get a semi discount (maybe they should have seen that Vladdy could return to form)? Is this on Vladdy's inconsistency?

The thing is it really depends on their plans for building this roster. It just doesn't make sense if we're not going to be able to sign or acquire some big bats to compensate for the possibility that Gimenez doesn't hit all (a high probability). In that case we've acquired what is apparently a 20 million dollar cap hit for a team that's already expensive this year and won't compete. It makes sense in two ways, maybe three. If you're planning to blow it up and trade Bo and Vlad, move Gimenez to short. Then you've got a solid player there for the future at a key position as you accumulate prospects. The other is that we go that second CBT apron and make some actual signings like Bregman or Teo (or god forbid Santander) and maybe another trade to pick up a bat. Maybe chase Luis Robert. We can try to compete (although it is a team that is lacking even with those adds). The third option is that we're planning to move on from Bo but not from Vlad. We use Bo to make a trade for MLB talent or about to enter MLB talent at positions we're lacking in and we make a signing or two. That one's interesting but I think unlikely. We don't add to much salary in this instance but maybe we build a better constructed roster.

It's too early to say this is the case but I don't think it's an unreasonable take here. If it's true it's painful though. Full failure on the front office for that.

I think this was a pretty good trade for a different team than this one. This trade is going to need (several) corresponding moves in order to make sense cause you've really added some long term salary for a no bat 2B. If you've committed the money for this you've now gotta commit the money for some bats or otherwise what the hell are we doing. Horwitz was legitimately the second best hitter on the team last year by a decent gap. Whether he could keep it up or not he made up a component of the teams offensive success. We've subtracted that now and from that perspective it means we don't just need one more bat, we need two more bats. A DH type and an OF. I can't tell if the resources are there for that.

I doubt it with this free agency period but maybe Bregman can be had at a not stupid price and we have a reasonable hitting infield that also plays great D?

It's not that Gimenez is a bad player. His numbers would clearly indicate he isn't, but I'm not really sure what we're doing from a roster contruction standpoint here. Allocating a chunk of the limited money that's available to a defense first (and maybe defense only) 2B when we had several decent 2B options that voltron into a starter level player doesn't seem like the right move. If we're thinking of moving him to SS and moving on from Bo, maybe that's the plan here I don't know. But it feels like there are lots of holes in this roster and this move limits our ability to fill those holes? Strictly as a value trade this is fine and probably even a good deal (depending on how good of a bat Horwitz is long term). But I don't know if it's what the team needs.

It does kind of suck given we're looking for hitting and now do have to compensate for losing our second best hitter last year. Wagner or Barger I would have been more comfortable with but I feel like the FO really likes Barger.