I’m not sure people realize just how much the luxury tax mechancis might be restricting what the Jays can commit long term. The Jays barely avoided a tax penalty in 2024 by trimming payroll (ending ~$233.9M), and going over the 2025 threshold (~$241M) opens them up to stiff penalties, especially if they do it repeatedly.
Right now, management has some breathing room — they’re projected ~$13M under the 2025 limit after arbitration and contract commitments. But a big extension for Bo might blow that wiggle room away, risking them going into the second- or third-tier tax zone. That’s a serious deterrent.
In short, I think an extension is unlikely. But who knows.