The Iceman

YUP, looking better. Don't need him to come in at 205 lbs as a 1B/DH

Jays WAY better off for that kind of money to focus on Lindor

Sid Sexiero went on and on the other day saying it is just money, why do Jays fans care? WELL Jays will only raise their payroll so much. If you spend $150 million on a pplayer that $$$ is not available elsewhere. Seems pretty straight forward. Then went on a rant that Springer would be the best Jay since DOC LOL, not a great take that a 31 year old will age well enough to be a better player than Bautista, EE, Josh.

Could Lourdes be our 3rd base solution if we sign Springer?

Cubs shopping Willson Contreras, how about a deal centered around Jansen for him?

There are GMs that make deals and GMs that talk about making deals. SD GM makes big deals. He must have been laughing when he heard what held up the deal with Toronto. Sometimes when signing a FA you need to plug your nose a bit and pull the trigger. WTF, this could turn out to be a horrible miss for this org. It isn't like there a lot of players that have Toronto #1 on their list.

Jays dream off season should not be signing a 36 year old to a multi year deal. Jays need to get out of the deep end and put their water wings back on. Trade for a salary dump and add a prospect. Target Pitt and try to acquire Musgrove or Tallian Sign Molina and Happ to 1 year deals and save some $$$ for a franchise SS next season.

Blue Jays: Charlie Montoyo is entering the last guaranteed year of his original three-year contract, though the Jays hold a club option on Montoyo’s services for 2022. That option could be exercised to give Montoyo a bit more security as a reward for leading Toronto to the playoffs last year, though expectations are certainly higher for the 2021 team. It should also be noted that there hasn’t yet been any official confirmation that president/CEO Mark Shapiro has signed a new contract with the team after his five-year deal ran out after last season, but last October, Shapiro seemed to imply that a new deal was all but complete.

Like in the general Jays discussion thread LOL

Old Contreras was acquired from NYY for Esteban Loaiza and was cooked by the time he got there. NYY had a better Cuban pipeline than CWS

Would you rather...hypothetical only. Give up Lourdes as the main piece in a trade. Thinking for Lindor or a Reds pitcher. or Teoscar?

Problem being we completely blow our budget with those 2 transactions. Is the + of Springer over Grishit in CF + of Lindor over Bichette at SS worth prospect capital, draft pick compensation and $50+ million/season

Alomar and Molitor were not SS. Fernandez was a very good hitter as a SS, getting better with age. In his 37 year old aged season he had a .877 OPS with 77 to 62 K to walk ratio. He destroyed LHP for the Jays in his later years.

4 errors in 10 games playing 3rd in Winter ball.

His weight was not a factor in fielding balls to his right hit at our 2nd baseman, or misplaying popups a minor leaguer would nab. Dude is just never going to be a good defender. Even if he came in at 205 lbs.

I am not sure when you are referencing. DUDE has been a chunko his whole life. Vlad sr was a bean pole.

DO NOT TRADE MORENO Thank you

The fine folks @ Razzball had this to say: Tellez more! Tellez more! Tellez more! Rowdy Tellez isn’t just hitting the ball hard; he’s doing it after nearly cutting his strikeouts in half. He went from 28.4% K% to 15.7% this past year, and upped his walks from 7.1% to 8.7%. His O-Swing went from 38.3% to 30.7% and his Z-Swing went from 62% to 71.4%. To explain that in layman’s terms, he stopped swinging at balls outside the zone and swung more at strikes. So, let’s get this straight, Rowdy Tellez was more aggressive in the zone, while hitting the ball harder than everyone but two of the biggest sluggers in baseball? If you can’t catch me as I faint, I don’t fault you, but I am about to fall over. Not too get too Bold Predictiony, but Rowdy Tellez is about to have a better season for fantasy than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Barring injury and some extremely stupid platooning, I’m not sure how Rowdy Tellez isn’t a top 100 player overall, and he’s going around 275th overall. Find a better sleeper, I’ll wait. Okay, I’m done waiting. For 2021, I’ll give Rowdy Tellez projections 80/28/93/.287/3 in 506 ABs with a chance for more.

I like your idea of fast tracking Martin through the system. Would love to see him called up after the delay in service time date. Lots of places for him to play. 3rd, 2nd, a little CF.

I think CM is our weakest link. Like him as an assistant, don't like him as the boss. Doesn't seem to have the leadership skills that successful managers need to have.

The Tigers knew the hulking Cabrera wouldn’t be a Gold Glover at the hot corner, but they figured they’d rather have a poor defensive third baseman that could mash, and a slugging first baseman, than Cabrera at first and a more defensive-oriented player at third. As long as their franchise player wasn’t a complete disaster at his new position— which he hadn’t played regularly since 2007— the Tigers figured they’d come out on top. They were right, as Cabrera produced more defensive value in 2012-13 than the next two years, even though he was actually an above-average first baseman. 2012 3B -1.6 1.5 -0.1 2013 3B -6 2 -4 2014 1B 3.1 -11.9 -8.8 2015 1B 2.2 -9.2 -7 Cabrera won consecutive MVPs in his years at third, while the Tigers were able to construct a lineup that also featured Fielder and full-time DHs (Delmon Young in 2012 and Victor Martinez in 2013) that drove deep playoff runs. We shouldn’t get too far ahead of ourselves with this comparison, because Cabrera was in the midst of a Hall of Fame peak offensively, and he was a better fielder than what Guerrero Jr. is today. Vladdy isn’t an above-average first baseman, and he projects to be worse than Cabrera was at third. That said, we can use this framework to mock out the defensive value of Guerrero Jr. at the two positions. Here’s what his defensive production looks like on a per 1,350 inning (150 game) basis so far in his young career, using the 2020 positional adjustments from the Ramirez-Olson example: 3B -15.4 1.9 -13.5 1B -8.1 -11.6 -19.7 Based on those numbers, you could argue that Guerrero Jr. should be the third baseman already, even if he’s no better there than he was in 2019. However, there are a couple of problems with that. First, Vladdy probably wouldn’t be nearly as poor a first baseman in 2021 as he showed in a 34-game sample this past season. His weight loss would help him there too, as would getting more experience at the position. The sample is also small enough that it’s hard to take it too literally. The other issue is that his work at third was bad enough that he could reasonably be considered “unplayable” there given the adverse effect he’d have on the pitching staff. The question is how much can his body transformation improve his defensive production, and in what areas. It seems fair to assume that his weight loss could help him in terms of both quickness and range. In 2019, we saw a few examples of Guerrero Jr. just not moving well enough to handle his position. Perhaps a trimmer Vladdy would watch fewer grounders make their way down the third-base line Whether he could reach the level of an acceptable everyday third baseman is hard to know, but we can make a few educated guesses. Let’s say Guerrero Jr. was able to split the difference between his brutal range in 2019 and a league-average one, still leaving him as a significant net negative in the area. Considering his size, he’s never going to look like Nolan Arenado out there, but he could be far better than he showed as a rookie. Also, let’s do the same thing with his errors. That may sound like a lot, but the 21-year-old ranked dead last among 30 third baseman in error runs below average (-3.7) in 2019. If we bring him to -1.8, that only ticks him up to 27th. Considering 76.5 percent of his errors were of the fielding variety, as opposed to throws, there’s plenty of room to improve. We won’t touch his double-play runs because those are tougher to link to body composition. The result is a third baseman who’s still pretty poor across the board. -8.2 1.9 -6.3 That attainable improvement would make him significantly more valuable defensively than he would be even if he were an average first baseman, which is probably a stretch — at least in 2021. 0 -11.6 -11.6 Beyond Guerrero Jr.’s literal value, if he was able to play third he would open up a number of roster construction possibilities for the Blue Jays. As it stands, the club needs one full-time position player, but its options for what kind of player that can be are somewhat limited. Unless the Blue Jays make a significant acquisition, the outfield of Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is locked in. Adding someone else to that mix would have to bring the DH spot into play for one of the outfielders. Right now, that’s an issue with one of Guerrero Jr. and Rowdy Tellez occupying that spot on a regular basis. A year ago, sidelining Tellez looked advisable, bordering on necessary. However, after a 2020 season in which he cut his strikeout rate almost in half while maintaining his power, he looks like a guy you want in your lineup — especially if you’re short on left-handed thump. This profile is awfully tough to leave on the bench: That means if the Blue Jays want to make a big splash they are either being funneled towards infielders or away from Tellez. Even if they opt for a third baseman, or a middle infielder that eventually pushes Cavan Biggio to third, they are still stuck with an inflexible roster that doesn’t allow them to use the DH to exploit specific matchups or give their guys a rest. In a world where Guerrero Jr. is viable at third, Rowdy Tellez slots in at first, and the DH spot is ripe for rotating players through. That would make free-agent corner outfielders such as Michael Brantley, or even an international import like Sung-bum Na, more realistic options to bolster their lineup. The Blue Jays could shop for offensive firepower and lineup fit, as opposed to defensive need. How Guerrero Jr. at third base helps Guerrero Jr. While part of Guerrero Jr.’s motivation to take back third base relates to helping the Blue Jays, his determination to do so almost certainly has to do with his own earning potential. To be clear, that’s far from a criticism. It’s natural for any athlete to want to maximize their ability to provide for themselves and their families — and gain the industry-wide acclaim that comes with landing a major contract. For superstars, a group Guerrero Jr. could conceivably join, there’s also the responsibility of setting favourable precedents for future generations. If Guerrero Jr. and his representatives are thinking strategically about his career, the reality is that he stands to earn far more money as a third baseman than he does at first. If we look at active contracts signed in the last five years, the top 10 contracts for free-agent third baseman are worth a collective $1.375 billion. The top 10 first baseman are making $872.8 million. That number is misleading as well because $248 million of the first base total belongs to the Miguel Cabrera contract in 2016 that was considered a huge mistake at the time and looks even worse now. The group of first baseman who gets paid is also extremely shallow. You’ll notice I said the “top 10 first baseman” as opposed to the “top 10 contracts.” That’s because the 10th first baseman in terms of total cash is Josh Bell, and his $6 million is just an arbitration projection for 2021. The 10th third baseman is Matt Carpenter at $39 million. In recent seasons, we’ve also seen 1B/DH types consistently non-tendered by teams, even after solid seasons. Pedro Alvarez was cut loose in 2015 after four straight above-average offensive seasons in which he hit 111 home runs. Chris Carter was famously cut after a 40-homer 2016. The next year, Matt Adams got the ax after posting an .856 OPS in 100 games with the Atlanta Braves. In 2019, C.J. Cron was non-tendered after a 30-homer, 2.2 WAR season with the Tampa Bay Rays. Things would have to go terribly wrong for Guerrero Jr. to find himself in the non-tender conversation, but the activity in that area proves how fungible teams around the league consider first baseman at the moment. In the last two offseasons, the only full-time 1B/DH to secure a multi-year free-agent contract was Daniel Murphy, who the Colorado Rockies gave a relatively-modest two-year $24 million deal. Over the same period, as many as 10 third basemen have secured multi-year commitments, depending on how you want to define multi-positional players. If you’re a first baseman and you want to score the big contract these days, you need to be a future Hall of Famer (Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera), franchise icon (Joey Votto, Chris Davis), multiple-time all-star in their prime (Prince Fielder, Paul Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman), or have the GOAT agent find you an inexplicably good deal (Eric Hosmer). Most of those deals have turned out to be regrettable ones teams aren’t eager to repeat and nobody who these labels don’t apply to has grabbed a contract worth even $75 million in the last 10 years. One of them could apply to Guerrero Jr. someday, but that’s far from a guarantee despite his talents. Conversely, if you’re a third baseman you can get your money if you’re a good-but-not-great hitter (Kyle Seager), one with conditioning concerns (Pablo Sandoval), a 34-year-old with chronic lower leg issues (Josh Donaldson), a 32-year-old that has been a below-average player the vast majority of his career (Justin Turner), or a younger version of that (Eugenio Suarez). All of those guys made between $60 million and $100 million. The superstar third basemen (Manny Machado, Anthony Rendon, and Arenado) all topped Pujols’s all-time record deal for a first baseman. Guerrero Jr.’s efforts to reclaim third base could prove futile by a Blue Jays’ move in the days to come, or simply his inability to make a significant enough improvement defensively following his weight loss. For now, though, the dream of Vladdy at third is alive, and if he can make it a reality it would pay off handsomely for everyone involved.

Could Thomas Hatch make the team as a SP in 2021? He had 3 seasons in the minors with over 25 starts. Seems very well suited to being a SP.

And how many times did you yell at the TV watching him range to his right cutting off a ball to the 2nd baseman. A pretty teachable skill to leave those when you know where the 2nd baseman is set up I would think. It frustrates me that he is not accepting his move to 1st. I was reading an article where they thought it was for financial reasons. That the 1st baseman of the modern day isn't compensated anywhere as well as a 3rd baseman. I hope this isn't the case.

Thanks for posting this. I thought he had left the building He is still just 20 years old. A baby. 5 years younger than Murphy and Kay. A couple of what I still consider young pitching prospects. Lets hope he can stay healthy and develop.

Awesome, he looks great. Now if I could only see video of him catching a pop fly at 1st I would be ready to anoint him the Jays 1st baseman for the next 10 years.