Carlos Danger

I posted this a week or two ago late night, deep in the Ohtani thread. It might have been behind a paywall. I figured it is a good time to cut and paste and post again. A SF Giants beat reporter telling fans they don't want Bellinger and Chapman and why. Now, the Rogers center is not Oracle park, where hitters go to die, but still some good cautionary info... By DIETER KURTENBACH | dkurtenbach@bayareanewsgroup.com | Bay Area News Group PUBLISHED: December 11, 2023 at 1:07 p.m. | UPDATED: December 12, 2023 at 4:03 a.m. Shohei Ohtani was everything the Giants needed. He was a middle-of-the-lineup bat with the kind of pop that could tame the right-field winds of Oracle Park. He was a top-of-the-rotation arm (in 2024, at least) who could pair with Logan Webb to give San Francisco the best 1-2 punch in the National League. He would have brought MVP credentials to a roster seeking respect and legitimacy. And man, would he have brought people out to the corner of Third and King. But Ohtani is going to sign with the Dodgers, pending a physical (we know how those can go), and the Giants are still looking for all of those things. It’s just another offseason letdown for Giants fans. And worse yet, with this free agent of all free agents, the Giants didn’t seem to be serious contenders for his services. I hear the cries for “spread the $700 million around” from the true believers. That’s a good idea in theory, but a terrible idea in reality. This is how you end up with Michael Conforto, Mitch Haniger, and a trade that sends Bryan Reynolds to Pittsburgh for Andrew McCutchen. That’s not budgeting — that’s spending because it’s payday. That’s how you live paycheck to paycheck — or, in the Giants’ case, year to year. Unless the Giants can land the second-best free agent in this year’s class, Japanese starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto (as broken down by my new colleague Danny Emerman) they should skip signing a big-money free agent. Yes, I’m suggesting that the Giants — who have a massive capacity for spending but a moderate big-market payroll — hold onto their money. I’m giving them permission to break even. The fact of the matter is that there is no middle class in baseball. The free agency system has been broken for decades, but neither the league nor the player’s association wants to fix it. And what it leaves us is offseason after offseason of one or two worthy players landing massive, record deals, and bevy of others — typically on the downslope of their careers — landing their one big payday by riding that wake. In short, good money (Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, Gerrit Cole) is only spent by one team. The rest of the league (or at least the half of the league that spends money in free agency) chases with bad money, overpaying for players who will be under contract for their decline years. This season is the perfect example. After the two Japanese stars, there are big names, sure. But there’s no one worthy of a nine-figure deal. Yes, you can quote me on that. Two players stand out: Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger. But the Giants signing either player would be a textbook case of chasing with bad money — again. Let’s start with Bellinger, because that’s the most frightening outcome. He, like Ohtani, carries an MVP pedigree, having won the award in 2019, and his counting stats from last season indicate that he has bounced back from the three-year slump that followed that MVP win. But while Bellinger was, indeed, better last season for the Cubs, he’s still miles away from the player he was in 2019. That 2019 Bellinger is the player the Giants need, not the current edition. The case against Bellinger is simple: He doesn’t hit the ball hard enough. Last year, Bellinger was 186th in baseball in barrels per batted ball event. He was 200th in average exit velocity. He was in the bottom 10 percent of baseball in hitting the ball hard. That’s a massive dropoff from 2019, when he was in the 86th percentile. When you’re a power hitter, that’s a big red flag. When you’re a lefty at Oracle Park, it’s death. MLB’s Statcast website says he would have only hit 16 home runs last season if every game was in San Francisco. (Compare that to the 30 he’d have hit with 162 games in Cincinnati.) The Giants cannot sign Bellinger. Whether the contract is one year or 10, it’ll be an albatross deal, weighing down the entire operation. It’s bad money. And what would be even more concerning about such a deal, were it to happen, is that we would know that the Giants are chasing a headline. If I can see that Bellinger provides false promise, you’d think Farhan Zaidi’s army of quants would, too. Signing Bellinger despite that would indicate an organization that is misaligned and doing things for all the wrong reasons. Which brings us to Chapman. The former A’s third baseman does hit the ball hard. Harder than just about anyone in the game. His issue is that he doesn’t hit it as frequently as he used to, and he didn’t have much room for error. The highs are spectacular — three or four-week benders where he hits 10 homers and laces the ball to every field. The lows are low indeed. He might as well be at the plate with a chopstick. But he’s clearly a player in decline. At one point, you could count on him to be the best third baseman in the game. He’s still excellent, but he’s lost something in the field, too. He’s 30. He has played seven years of ball. It’s all pretty typical. If the Giants were to land Chapman, they would be buying one or two good seasons — at best — but likely paying for more. Yes, it might seem like a positive to sign a player you can count on to be in the lineup every day for the next half-decade, but the new-car smell will wear off, and like with a car, depreciation on these kinds of baseball players comes fast. Will you still feel good about the purchase three years from now, when it’s in the shop — again — and it’s showing more wear and tear than it should? Is it a pessimistic viewpoint? Yes, but the world is a bummer sometimes. Free agency might work for teams at the high end (it certainly works for the players). It works for teams at the low end of money, term, or both. Unless Yamamoto is coming to the Bay, the Giants have already lost. And spending what was budgeted for the Japanese stars on the “next-best” players would only worsen the situation. Giants HQ

Gallo is a left handed power hitter who was let go from the Yankees when they were desperate for OFs even with the little league left fields short porch. He apparently is not good at handling the heat/pressures of places like New York. Toronto is not New York, but we do play in the AL East and there is a hell of a lot of media and pressure in the playoffs or tight divisional games etc..

Out of curiosity, were you still in the Clink from June until October? Chapman was a no show...

Chapman is better than JRam, Devers and Reilly..?? Dude, share what you are smoking....That is some potent stuff!

By what metric is he 4th best? He is better than Ramirez, Devers, Reilly, Bregman, Arenado, Machado, Muncy?

Fnnn epic collapse/choke in the last week, Doyle Alexander getting us, Henke blowing saves, our platoon 3b guys s***ing the bed at big ABs... Still haunted by it to this day.. LOL

Yea, the 1987 Blue Jays won 96 games and came 2nd in the division when it was just the East and the West and no Central division. No Analytics dept or wRC + back then, they seemed to manage.

No one, including Whit was saying to expand the strike zone and swing at pitches out side the strike zone. That is NOT what anyone was talking about. 1. The conversation was specifically regarding RISP and runner on 3rd less than 2 out type situations. 2. Pitchers always try to pitch you tougher in that situation. 3. You can be looking for your pitch, not get it and have a K called on you vs a shorten up your swing and make contact approach. Almost every hitter performed below expectations. Doesn't that tell you something is going on and not just the individual? Why is it when Pete Walker does a great job with pitchers it is the pitching coach and org philosophy to have a guy use his cutter more etc, etc.. Also, if a pitching staff sucks, the pitching staff gets blamed. However, if the hitting staff/philosophy sucks or is not a right fit for players that we have, then it is on the hitters and coaching /philosophy has nothing to do with it...??

There were also a few months where he solely kept us in WC spot with his offense.

It is a punchline to many jokes though

I think the proof is in the pudding... The team was poor in general with RISP and runner on 2b less than 2 out etc. Also, passing the baton only works if you can pass the baton- a walk. I think too many guys were "waiting their pitch" and getting called out on strikes or just out and not walking. Basically that is what Whit was talking about. They were NOT getting the run in due to "waiting" for their pitch.

That has always been my philosophy. Walk softly and carry a big cock.

I haven't had a chance to write this out with work and concentrating on Ohtani etc. However, Whit Merrifield was on MLB a few weeks ago. To summarize: Whit was asked what is the part of the game he takes pride in the most or that is most important to him that he is recognized for. SBs, his high average back when he hit .300 etc, etc. Whit replied that the part of his game that is most important to him is hitting with RISP or a man on 3rd less than 2 out etc. This is when he threw some shade at the Blue Jays IMO and kind of gave me some insight into the hitting coaches, info that is shared etc. All the things we heard tidbits of during the season. Whit stated that when he is at the plate with a runner on 3rd less than 2 outs, he is looking to take whichever pitch he gets and hit it somewhere to get the run in. Basically, that he has been good at adapting and making hard contact with the ball. Obviously in situation with RISP the pitcher will always pitch you tougher. Whit's approach was in conflict with the team approach which was to wait your pitch, if you don't get your pitch and you can walk, then move it down the line for the next guy to bring the runner/s in. However, guys were not getting their pitch and they weren't able to take a walk and they were stranding too many RISP. Whit's insight definitely tracks with what I believe I saw last season with the Blue Jays in many cases. It also goes to a "Team approach or mindset".

Maybe at DH, but LF??? Did you see him gift us as many runs as he scored against us in the SEA series... We need to stick with our solid D and move the needle on offense, not trade one for the other IMO.

Bassitt and Kikuchi had the same WAR. Small detail that doesn’t change the cost argument. However, neither out WAR’d the other.

Yes, doesn’t make sense for the Blue Jays. However, with San Fran coming in at over $300m, the Mets needing to make a splash, the Dodgers and Yankees desperately needing SPs to go along with Ohtani and Soto respectively, someone will pay that much.

My spider senses tell me, based on the latest reporting, that Yamamoto’s deal might hit or break $400 million.

How comfortable are you with today’s report that Bellinger’s agent is seeking $200 m plus….. I think a lot of red flags, but upside also.. Kinda on the fence at this point..

Yup, we have seen this movie before. Then the team starts traveling and clubhouse buffets, stop over at Abuelas house etc…. I do think if he goes into camp like that, he should have a strong start of the season with the bat.

LGR jr going back to the Diamondbacks. 3yrs $42m

I think he has not is very premature. He might need to see if he gets signed by an MLB team to be able to have an understanding of damages which is key in a civil lawsuit. If Bauer gets signed to an MLB team for this upcoming season, he could only claim damages on the portion of his suspension the Dodgers didn't pay plus some other restitution. If he can't get signed by a MLB team in the near future, then he could claim lifetime of potential MLB earning plus the amount he already lost.

That article was from early Feb 2022 and then they had to update it. I don’t see anything except the initial BS. It appears all they have is that he admitted to punching her in the ass.

Not at all accurate Jim. Bauer admitted to “rough” consensual sex, NOT to beating the accuser as the photos that first surfaced indicated. The accuser’s bedside morning after video debunked all that. Show me where there is admission by Bauer of conduct violating the MLB code of conduct???

Yea, this argument holds no water as all the “points” you list, except for the battery, were in existence and well known before the Dodgers and Mets and others went all in during his FA period.

Might be right, I was busting your chops. If you ever end up dating her, you should say I have a Filipina girlfriend vice Filipino. * Unless she/he transitions while you are dating