Carlos Danger

lmao:d

They should bump Stroman back to # 5, because if all those guys are healthy, he is the #5, and also because I know it would f*** with his ego.

Epa!!

Kuhl’s below-average secondaries kept him from prospect relevance. Well, does a .216 xwOBA slider and a .197 xwOBA curveball sound below-average to you? If you’re not sure, from 2017-2018 Kuhl’s curveball ranked 11th best in xwOBA among starters, and his slider ranked 9th, sandwiched right between Sonny Gray and Luis Severino. This graph depicts every pitcher who threw at least 1,000 breaking balls from 2017 to 2018, with xwOBA of said pitches in the x-axis and pitch usage on the y-axis. As you can see from the other names I highlighted, Kuhl’s breaking balls measure up to some of the best pitchers in all of baseball, as he posted a better xwOBA on his slider/curveball than guys like Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Jacob deGrom. This isn’t a coincidence or luck either; both of Kuhl’s breaking balls grew into elite pitches. His curveball has elite spin-rate, averaging the 16th highest mark in 2018, as well as above-average movement in both directions. His slider also possesses above-average spin and movement, which while not as high as his curveball, are very impressive for its 88.3 MPH average velocity. Eye test will also confirm that both of these pitches are truly above-average pitches, despite what scouts and the Pirates’ themselves thought about him as a prospect. Kuhl had a curveball coming out of college, but the Pirates pushed him to drop it in favor of a slider when he was in the minors. He didn’t pick it back up again until 2017. The reason I used pitch usage as my y-axis is to show what the big issue with Chad Kuhl is. Despite having a combined xwOBA of .211, Kuhl only threw his breaking balls for 29.5% of his pitches. Of the pitchers with better breaking balls than Kuhl, only Charlie Morton, Corey Kluber, Blake Snell, and Ivan Nova used them less than him. This is especially concerning when you consider the fact that Kuhl throws both a slider and a curveball, while a large percentage of the pitchers on this chart mainly throw one or the other. It’s worth noting that a few guys in a similar position on the chart to Kuhl, such as Paxton, Morton, and Kluber, have a low percentage of breaking balls because they have a pitch which statcast identifies as a cutter, even though it acts more like a slider (although Paxton and Morton didn’t have significant usage on this pitch). If you include his Cutter, Kluber’s percentage of breaking balls would jump to 51.6%. That just leaves the other three. Morton and Snell can be explained fairly simply by the fact that they all have plus fastballs, as do most guys with elite breaking balls but low usage, so they don’t need to rely on their breaking balls as much. It’s also worth noting that, like almost every pitcher close in proximity on the chart to Kuhl, Morton increased his percentage significantly in 2019. From 2017-2018, Morton used his curveball and cutter for 37.7% of his pitches. In 2019, that number rose from 47.7%, as he used his curveball especially significantly more, and he had the best season of his career by far. That just leaves Ivan Nova, and to explain that one, all I need to do is tell you to check what team Nova played for from 2017-2018, and the issue starts to become pretty clear. Going back to the fact that most guys with elite breaking balls and low usage have elite fastballs, or at the very least above-average, let’s talk about Chad Kuhl’s fastball. So the first thing that stands out (other than the mess in this middle of the graph. That’s Snell, Clevinger, and Strasburg by the way) is just how bad Chad Kuhl’s fastballs were over this period. Despite elite velocity, Kuhl’s .404 xwOBA on these pitches was 3rd worst in the majors over this period, ahead of only Matt Moore and James Shields. The other obvious thing about this graph is that good pitchers tend to have good fastballs. The only highlighted pitcher with an xwOBA on fastballs over .350 was Patrick Corbin, which is easily explained by his breaking ball percentage of 44.1%. (39.5% slider). This is a pretty simple concept that seems to elude many MLB organizations; pitchers should throw their best pitches more often. I personally think pitchers could throw secondary pitches 100% of the time if their secondaries are good enough and their fastball is that bad, but I won’t try to push those radical beliefs on you guys. The reason that even guys with fastballs this bad throw them a lot comes down to being able to throw strikes. The concern when raising secondaries is always that BB% will rise, which is true, but if K% rises enough as well, then it’s a worthwhile move because strikeouts are worth much more in the positive direction than walks are in the negative direction. Contrary to popular belief, adding 10 points to your K%+ while also adding 10 points to your BB%+ would actually be a huge improvement for a pitcher. The key here is finding a balance, which Chad Kuhl clearly hasn’t done, and something that the Pirates barely tried to do under Ray Searage. The natural question here would be “how good can a pitcher be with a really bad fastball?”. Well in this sample size alone, there’s a pretty good answer, and his name is Carlos Carrasco. Of all pitchers who threw 2,500 fastballs from 2017 to 2018, Carrasco ranked sixth-worst in xwOBA at .393, just three spots ahead of Kuhl himself. Over the same time period, Carrasco posted 10.4 fWAR (7th highest in baseball) to go along with a 3.04 FIP across 386.2 IP. In the same sample, Patrick Corbin ranked 25th worst in fastball xwOBA at .364, and it got even worse in 2019. That didn’t keep Corbin from accumulating 13.9 fWAR over the last three years (7th highest in baseball). Marcus Stroman and Luis Castillo ranked 20th and 16th worst in fastball xwOBA over the same period, but still managed to put up 4.8 fWAR and 4.0 fWAR respectively. I think you get the point. Do I think Chad Kuhl can be as good as these guys? Actually, yes. Yes I do. * I can't figure out how to make the graphs larger on this board... Someone able to help?

The Pirates made it known that Chad Kuhl is officially available. We should be in on him as a relatively cheap acquisition with high upside. IMO he has higher upside then Matz and we just went and got him. He had TJ the previous season and 2020 was getting back in form. There are some good underlying metrics and he is young and controllable..

This thread is interesting to look back on as is the year prior. Guys hobbing SRF’s knob and calling Bichette and Biggio busts.

I don't get what other teams see in Loup...??

Yup, Semien had something like a plus 1100 OPS the last week of the season and playoffs.. So, if you take his 2019 season plus in my mind when he just started getting warmed up in aggregate, he is the clearly superior offensive player of the three. I thought Semien and Bradley jr would make this team better. That was when I thought Springer would go to the Mets and I thought I was being realistic. Now Semien and Springer, fnnn great!! Still need Pitching or all moot.

Spanky's fantasy teams just dropped 15 spots in the Power rankings..

Guilty! Probably head of that Fan club.

Exactly what I stated.. It was PR, of course he is not going to say anything negative and not denigrate his performance... The inflation of his performance was what made me chuckle... Your point was my point.. It was PR/BS.

Atkins throwing a bone to Grichuk was total PR/BS.

We are going to delve into politics but they can put BLM on the floor of NBA courts and have corporate sponsorship when BLM had mass marches in the streets of NYC saying Pigs should fry and die and countless of examples. Cathy Griffin holds up a cut off head of the President of United States, Madonna says they should blow up the White House. No Rock and Roll Hall of Fame for Madonna, No comedy awards for Kathy Griffin and the NBA should be sanctioned for supporting a group that's members have publicly advocated killing COPs. A lot of things f***ed up in the world. When someone on this board makes a Traped comment, they are not advocating Rape. There are three pitchers with 3000 plus Ks that are not in the Hall of Fame. Verlander, CC Sabathia and Schilling. The first two will have their time. It is BS that people can't take an fnnn joke of a pic that was FWD.... to DQ someone for a HOF career without a doubt!

Thanks for making my point why the process is so flawed now and the HOF is an fnnnn joke now.. A once great institution now a side note due to a bunch of people being petty.. Luckily you don't have a vote, unfortunately too many other petty people do..

The ironic thing is, and just shows how this is really just political, is that Schilling won the Roberto Clemente award as a player. Not just nominated, but WON! Out of 750 MLB players or however many there were that year. Roberto Clemente Award is given annually to the Major League Baseball player who "best exemplifies the game of baseball, sportsmanship, community involvement and the individual's contribution to his team", as voted on by baseball fans and members of the media.

False, he never wore a shirt like that. He shared a Tweet of a guy wearing a shirt like that. It is an fnnn joke. Distasteful to some,, but he fwd a pic on Tweeter..

Cheating, breaking the law, domestic abusers etc that is clear. For a guys personal opinions with not one allegation of cheating, or violation of any law or MLB policy is not apples and apples. No allegations of racism or anything like that, it is his personal political opinions, as interpreted, many times wrongly by others. I didn't use Clemens and Bond in my example, even though I think personally they should be in. There was also a lot of chatter about Kent being an ******* to reporters... Schilling and Kent should be in the HOF period, full stop. Those voting against them are doing so for periphery and petty reasons.

Negative Ghostrider, he was cleared, the org is cool with him and he has Yuge potential. However, just like 2-3 other players on that list, he is not going to be a SS. He will most likely play OF for the Pirates. Liover will play SS, Gonzalez will play 2b and Cruz will move to the OF, he has the bat for it..

The fact Schilling and Kent are not yet in the HOF, makes the whole thing an fnnn joke. Also, the Baseball writers is something from the fnn 30's. They need to expand to TV guys who follow the teams/players daily, not just writers. Writers, get over yourselves and your woke fnn voting, the parameters are clear and and if you follow the parameters, political opinions or if a guy was mean to you for interviews or did not give you interviews (Kent) should not make an fnnn iota of a difference.

Did you actually read the letter and the rational, or only heard that he want's to be taken off?

Not having either Springer or Biggio in the leadoff spot is criminal. Bichette needs to be 2 or 3 spot.

Not my opinion amigo. I am stating the reason the MLBPA doesn't want expanded or diluted playoff format. It is NOT due to compensation for playoff games.

Yup, this!

I know full well the DH is a poison pill. Regardless, the MLBPA rejected it and didn't even counter. Read my above post as to why they don't want expanded playoffs, it is not because of compensation during the playoffs.

The reason the players are rejecting expanded playoffs is not because of compensation for the playoffs. The reason is free agency. If more and average teams can make the playoffs every year, there is no incentive for owners to go after big time FAs when they know they can make the playoffs with average Joe or Juan. That is why the MLPU is rejecting it.