The issue with Kulh is his pitch usage. He also had a one blowout against the Marlins that jacked up a lot of bad numbers. He was also coming back from basically two years off. He finished strong and is the exact type of SP the Jays appear to be targeting with the thought they can fix or see some solid underlying metrics.. He is a low cost with upside potential pitcher which the Matz trade shows they are willing to take fliers on. The Jays were mentioned with him at the deadline which probably means they were at least looking at him. Many other SPs you have to pay a high asset price for and apart from Bauer and one or two others, there is not much in FA.. Kulh is a cost vs reward target to buy low instead of waiting until he breaks out and becomes very expensive.
From Fangraphs:
The Pittsburgh Pirates don’t have much going for them this year. One bright spot who has shown potential is pitcher Chad Kuhl. Kuhl is an interesting case and I am somewhat surprised people haven’t run to add him.
Kuhl started the year piggybacking for Steven Brault but that ended quickly and he has moved into the starting rotation after only doing it twice. In four starts this year he possesses a 2.70 ERA and has only allowed more than one run once in those four starts. Now the 6.10 FIP, .128 BABIP, and near 100% LOB% screams massive regression. But he might not regress as much as one would think.
Kuhl actually has two above-average breaking balls in his slider and curveball. Both produce a ton of whiffs, and while he could locate the curveball a little better his slider is located very well. The main crutch for Mr. Kuhl is his sinker. With a .399 wOBA against, I wonder why this is his featured pitch. Hopefully, the Pirates and their new “philosophy” can fix this.
For all of Chad Kuhl’s positives and negatives, overall he’s a solid streaming option. He pitches very well at home, and can handle both right and left-handed hitters. In the right matchups, he makes a ton of sense and with those two plus breaking balls in his back pocket he should be able to eliminate potential blowups.
Another from Fangraphs:
Chad Kuhl eventually moved into the rotation for the Pirates last season. As a starter, he pitched 41.1 innings with a 4.57 ERA, 5.78 FIP, and 4.90 xFIP. What’s so interesting about Kuhl is his stuff is really good. In fact, if you use Ethan Moore’s Quality of Pitch (QOP) metric he is ranked up there with Mike Soroka and Kenta Maeda.
Kuhl can take a step forward if he caters more towards his breaking stuff, especially the slider. He mainly throws a sinker (42.1% usage) but it just flat out isn’t a good pitch. His command on it is terrible and it gets crushed. Actually crushed might be an understatement. Opposing hitters had a 186 wRC+, .309 ISO, and .448 wOBA against it. Those are some of the worst numbers I have ever seen for someone’s number one pitch.
When you move on to the slider that he throws 34.5% of the time the numbers look much better. Opposing hitters only had a 52 wRC+, .244 wOBA, and .058 ISO against it. He also was able to induce whiffs as it posted a 20.1 SwStr%, well above the league average of 17.1%. While he should probably throw it out of the zone more his slider doesn’t possess any flaws, so why not throw it 40% of the time?
Kuhl needs to dump the sinker or at least drop the usage to 30%. Relying on his slider and curveball could work wonders.