Why shouldn't we speculate on what Vlad would have brought in return? It's kind of impossible to form any kind of opinion on whether the club should have traded him without coming up with an idea of a potential return. We have a loose idea based on the Soto return who was a more consistent player with a higher demonstrated ceiling, and his return wasn't some sort of franchise altering deal as it was more of a quantity over quality kind of deal. Perhaps a pure prospect package could have returned a higher package ceiling than what the Padres received, but it seems that teams are becoming increasingly unwilling to move their true top prospects in trade these days, especially when it comes to a player with a single year of remaining control.
Vlad's deal only adds approximately $7 million to the payroll year to year compared to this season, and in the short to medium term this deal should have little negative ramifications on the team's ability to compete. I think too many are getting fixated on the overall value of the deal as that's simply a function of it being a bit too long in nature. On a pure AAV note the $35 million annual outlay is perfectly reasonable for a superstar calibre player and given the fact that the Jays are a luxury tax team the front half of this deal should provide plenty of value. The back half of the deal could be pretty ugly in nature given the typical aging curve for heavyset first base types, but that's a concern for many years down the road. If the choice is 6-7 years of potential contention/high payroll team vs a 5 year rebuild that is far from guaranteed to succeed given the draft lottery I'll take the first option every single time.
I believe there is somewhere in the neighbourhood of $60 million coming off of the books after the season is up, and on top of that I do believe there is more payroll space available beyond what was utilized this season as the club was reportedly in the bidding for the likes of Alonso and Bregman as spring training approached. Some of this will be eaten up by arbitration raises and Vlad's new deal to be certain, but I do tend to think there is plenty of available cash for both of Bieber/other top of the rotation arm and Bo but it will be a matter of aligning on value. With the longer term questions of Gausman and Springer both of these players were free agent acquisitions, and once their deals expire that will free up a ton of further payroll space to fill through free agency if required at that point.