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max silver

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Everything posted by max silver

  1. max silver
    That's mostly as a result of the pitiful average across the team with RISP. Do you really think that this collection of hitters is going to continue to bat below .200 with runners in scoring position? Once back to full strength this will largely be the same collection of hitters that regularly terrorized the opposition in 2021.
  2. max silver
    The majority of the Jays wins this season have been of the high stress variety but Romano loading the bases in the ninth kind of took that to new levels.
  3. max silver
    Nice for the boys to salvage a victory, especially after the debacle in the 7th inning last night. Marty Foster had a rough night behind the plate but at least it was both teams getting f***ed this time and not just the Jays. I have to give Charlie credit for getting Phelps out of there as fast as he did when it was apparent that Phelps didn't have it tonight, there have been far too many times in the past where he's left the reliever in the game to give up a bushel load of runs. Hopefully Teo coming back can spark this offence a bit, too many guys seem to be pressing right now. The less of Tapia and Zimmer we are subjected to the better, it's painful that there have been a bunch of games where both guys are in the starting lineup.
  4. max silver
    You are overreacting to a large degree based on some early season struggles. The team has played all of 25 games and faced a ton of high velocity good quality pitching with a quarter of their games coming against the Yankees who look to have one of baseball's best pitching staffs up to this point. They haven't had much of a chance to pad their stats vs the lesser teams of baseball either. I recently posted some statistics comparing last year's offence to this year's offence, and outside of RISP leading to a little less scoring this year's team is off to a better start in almost all relevant categories. Up to this point last season the offence had a collective 80'ish WRC+ compared to 110 WRC+ for this year's team. If you believe that this collection of hitters is going to continue to hit below .200 with RISP for the entire season then sure this offence is going to flounder all year, but I think there are simply far too many talented hitters with reinforcements on the way soon as well.
  5. max silver
    My thoughts exactly. If Zimmer isn't even going to be used appropriately to pinch run in late innings then he really has no place on the roster.
  6. max silver
    Looks like hard hit balls have been finding gloves as his xERA is an even 6.0. His statcast page is pretty ugly to say the least.
  7. max silver
    This makes TJ Zeuch look like Justin Verlander by comparison.
  8. max silver
    Manoah has outperformed Gausman by both ERA and xERA so your Manoah best Jays pitcher prediction hasn't been totally blown out of the water yet.
  9. max silver
    Even with the added juice he hasn't started swinging for the fences as his flyball percentage is only up about 4-5% over 2021. The biggest change has been jumping his line drive percentage by 8% which is perfect as it indicates a swing designed to produce line drive contact.
  10. max silver
    Hey it's a hot take so I might as well be bold. If you read the embedded tweet from earlier on this page he has a 2400 RPM fastball with elite movement that has generated a 50%+ whiff rate, a slider with a 100% whiff rate (super small sample of pitches) and it's declared that his change up may actually be his best pitch. I can't wait to see what he can do against better competition once he starts to move up the system.
  11. max silver
    That might have been true in 2021 but that's no longer the case. He's 65th percentile for hard hit rate so he's been making a ton of hard contact. His numbers have been steadily climbing as the hits have finally started to fall in for him. On April 20th his WRC+ stood at all of 70, however over the last two weeks his results have improved dramatically as he's produced a 128 WRC+ over this timeframe. These are the type of results that his quality of contact is predicting.
  12. max silver
    If he can continue his current level of performance offensively and defensively (seems pretty likely to happen for both) Espinal is there already. If you go back to last season Espinal has been playing at a 4.4 win pace if over 550 plate appearances. His WRC+ is within a point of each other for both years and the defence at second base is arguably even better than what he showed at third base.
  13. max silver
    That seems eminently possible given what he's shown so far. I've seen estimates that statcast batted ball estimators stabilize within 50 plate appearances, and Espinal has an xBA of .309 at the moment. Walk percentage potentially needs a little longer to stabilize but given that Espinal sees a very large amount of pitches per plate appearance it's certainly possible that the walk rate ticks up over time. At any rate he's not far behind his career walk rate even with this year's drop compared to 2021.
  14. max silver
    Seems unlikely as it's been reported the team wants to send him out on a rehab assignment first. I think they were going to send him to Buffalo but the weather forecast was iffy so they sent him down to Florida instead.
  15. max silver
    Espinal's contact rates are down but not a super dramatic drop by any means. His chase rate is up about 3% but a bigger issue is chase contact rate being down about 7%. Perhaps this is simply a function of swinging harder than previously. Whiffs are up about 5% but even so his whiff rate is very good at 76th percentile. Aside from the Rangers series the Jays have faced quite a bit of tough pitching so far this season. I suspect once the team finally gets to start playing the weaker sister teams we will finally start to get a clearer picture regarding Espinal's true offensive potential.
  16. max silver
    I think when it's all said and done even with the less patient approach Espinal is still a much better overall offensive performer compared to his previous output. In 2021 his 115 wrc+ looked to be largely undeserved given the extremely low exit velocities, and xWOBA was 37 points below his actual. I had serious doubts that he would be able to maintain this type of WRC+ going forward as it largely relied on weakly hit balls finding holes in the defence. His xWOBA is showing an opposite trend this year where it's quite a bit higher than actual with a 38 point gap between WOBA and xWOBA. It seems quite likely that he's been a bit unlucky with his batted ball results given the quality of contact he's produced. Over time I suspect his numbers may actually climb a bit compared to where they sit presently if he can continue to square up baseballs at the rate he's done so far.
  17. max silver
    Yeah I've noticed that as well. There's a weird box made up of white dots on the upper left corner of the screen. I was first a little worried there was an issue with my tv but it's only present during Jays broadcasts.
  18. max silver
    Kikuchi's best pitch is his splitter and it will play up much more effectively if he can first establish his fastball. I'm sure you've heard this a million times already on the Jays broadcasts but Kikuchi has a very good fastball in terms of velocity and spin, if he can harness his command and start placing his fastball more effectively he has potential to be a very good starter. Right now teams can basically sit on his slider and cutter (which is absolutely garbage and should be fully shelved) because Kikuchi has so much trouble actually placing his fastball where he needs to. He's shown the ability to hit 96-97 MPH with his heater so if he can start effectively locating it he will be much more effective. Kevin Gausman has shown the template for effective fastball/splitter usage and Kikuchi arguably has the raw stuff to have a similar pitch makeup if he can iron out the command issues.
  19. max silver
    I made a comment to my wife how I should monitor mine during games given how much tension there has been in almost every 9th inning so far.
  20. max silver
    The offence has certainly struggled to plate runs up to this point of the season, but given how much offence is down in MLB as a whole the overall team numbers rank better than expected. I did some quick digging around to compare this season's start at the plate compared to 2020, and in most ways this team has actually started better than last year's team. Through the first 22 games of the season the 2020 squad really struggled to the tune of an 81 WRC+ (25th overall in MLB) with 94 runs scored (24th overall in MLB). Through the first 22 games of the 22 games the team has produced a 110 WRC+ (10th in MLB) with 89 runs scored (13th overall). Once they start producing more with RISP the numbers should really start to take off.
  21. max silver
    It certainly paid off today with Springer catching the screaming liner in the shift earlier in the game and the diving catch to save the game in the ninth.
  22. max silver
    Romano owes Springer a steak dinner after that huge catch.
  23. max silver
    Once Teo comes back I have a hard time seeing him keeping his spot.
  24. max silver
    But you are stupid and should be banned. Maybe some day you'll figure out you'll get rational logical responses if you make rational logical statements.
  25. max silver
    This guy is clueless. I think he's going to be the first person I block on here and I'll most likely make a dramatic announcement about it Twisted Logic style just so I can tear this idiot a new one one last time.
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