At first I was pretty meh on this deal, as it felt like paying Kikuchi $36 million was completely based on potential rather than a pitcher who had experienced any type of MLB success. When taking a closer look he has produced a decent run of success in MLB over 5 months worth of starts, just split up over the covid shortened 2020 season and the first half of 2021. I chose to include the include his 2020 season stats and up until July 8 of 2021, as after that start is when the wheels really started to fall off for Kikuchi, with over half of his starts with ERA's north of 9 and several starts with ERA's of over 20.
During this stretch of games he put up pretty respectable numbers over a period of 24 starts. He produced an ERA of 3.81, FIP of 4.01, K/9 of 8.96, BB/9 of 3.18 and HR/9 of 1.21. Time will tell if the fall off during the second half of 2021 was more a product of fatigue or a result of the sticky stuff crackdown, as Kikuchi's spin rates took a noticeable tumble after the ban was implemented.
He looks like he will benefit greatly from a tweak to his pitch selection. According to Statcast he threw his cutter a whopping 35% of the time, but this was a very bad idea as it was hammered to the tune of a .382 WOBA with an ever higher .426 XWOBA. Conversely he threw his changeup (which other systems identify as a splitter) only 10.5% of the time, with a very impressive .192 WOBA/.194 XWOBA against. This pitch was able to garner a 39.6% whiff percentage. Perhaps Kikuchi would benefit from dropping the cutter altogether as the heat maps against show a majority of pitches down the middle of the plate and thigh high.