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Jesus man I'm glad you aren't the Jays general manager. Moreno is a Bo Bichette level prospect, you don't trade guys like this more mid/back of the rotation starters based on potential.

We shall see how strongly the competitive juices flow. By the end of his Jays contract he'll have raked in over $100 million for his MLB career so financial concerns won't be much of a consideration.

That would basically put an end to his career as a Blue Jay and an end to his career as a pitcher.

Last night just seemed to be one of those games where every mistake Jays pitchers made was sent over the outfield fences.

Gurriel has received 25 more plate appearances than Tapia. Gurriel has reportedly been dealing with recurring hamstring issues, so unless you want that to morph into something more serious it may be best to learn to live with him needing a few more days off than is ideal lineup construction wise.

I don't think Tapia's higher number of plate appearances than Kirk's are that relevant in this conversation. Tapia has played so much largely due to there being a lack of better backup outfielders available on the roster. With Springer getting a lot of DH time, Gurriel missing time with recurring hamstring issues, and Teo missing an extended period, and finally Biggio being ineffective at the plate and missing time due to COVID that leaves a pile of outfield time needing to be filled. Kirk isn't exactly a great candidate to play outfield so those at bats aren't going to available. It would be very hard to argue that outside of the last few weeks that Kirk should have been receiving DH time ahead of Springer, and the team is obviously going to be careful of overplaying Kirk due to his past hip injury history and the physical rigors of playing the catcher position.

Cueto's statcast numbers suggest to me that's he's largely been a beneficiary of the 2022 deadened ball. The Jays just roughed up yesterday's starter Kopech despite him entering the game with ace-like numbers, so I'm hopeful the lineup today can continue to work good patient at bats, while receiving the expected benefits from squared up baseballs as it appears as though the ball has really been flying in this series.

This is kind of a chicken and egg scenario, do you give a player more plate appearances despite not producing very well, or do you start to reward a player with more playing time as a result of producing more at the plate? Kirk only received 62 plate appearances in April but it's kind of hard to make the claim that he deserved more playing time as he produced all of a 71 WRC+. He really wasn't squaring up baseballs with any type of frequency, and the bulk of his value offensively was derived from his exemplary K/BB numbers. As Kirk has started making harder contact in May conversely he's started to receive far more regular playing time, and now is fully deserving of this. For May he received 82 plate appearances, and as he's really heated up during the last few weeks he's started to see more pinch hit appearances and some DH time as well.

Thankfully the last time we saw a lineup like this the team managed to erupt for 11 runs so all is not lost.

Based on the results so far this season the number of playoff teams at the moment seems to be just about right. The worst two win percentages of playoff teams right now belong to the Angels with a .540 win percentage, and the Giants with a .551 win percentage. Expand the playoffs any further and you start to see teams like the Rangers with a .490 win percentage and the Diamondbacks with a .481 win percentage make it in.

Bautista is an interesting comparable, however he never displayed as extreme of a batted ball profile as Martinez has, especially in terms of pop-ups. The infield fly ball by nature is the largest culprit for killing BABIP values as it's an automatic out nearly every time it occurs. When you combine Martinez's 52% flyball rate with a 26.9% infield flyball rate, you have 14% of his batted balls becoming automatic outs. In 2021 in high A this was even more extreme, with 19% of his batted balls becoming automatic outs. By comparison Bautista's most extreme flyball rate during his heyday as a Jay was his 2010 season where he produced a 54.5% flyball rate, however his infield fly percentage was much more under control at only 14.9%. This only lead to 8% of his batted ball events becoming automatic outs by comparison, so it stands to reason to expect that his BABIP value would be much more palatable as a result. Martinez very likely could benefit from levelling out his swing a touch. The homeruns he tends to hit are blasts that easily leave the ballpark, however this extreme launch angle is also likely leading to a lot of easy outs as a result when he doesn't fully connect. I can agree that the 120 WRC+ as a 20 year is very impressive, however there are also plenty of red flags in his statistical profile that could potentially end up limiting his overall impact in MLB if he isn't able to continue to improve over time.

I'm not sure the batted ball profile that Martinez is currently featuring is going to ever lead to a very high BABIP. He's very flyball heavy at 52%, and hits a ton of infield flyballs as well at 26.9%. He had a similar profile although even more extreme profile in high A in 2021 as well, and had a low .197 BABIP there as well. This is strictly stat scouting as I haven't had a chance to watch him play much, but when you look at his numbers it seems as though his swing is geared almost exclusively towards a high launch angle, which by it's nature is going to maximize his home run output at the expense of producing line drives, which are far more likely to fall in for hits.

Exactly this. Kirk didn't really heat up with the bat until the last two weeks or so. For the first two weeks of May he only produced a 99 WRC+. As Kirk has heated up Jansen has cooled off a bit, so the net effect of having both in the lineup would have been mitigated a bit. Since May 15 Kirk has been on fire with a 225 WRC+, where Jansen has produced a still good but much lower 116 WRC+. Other guys that have found themselves in the lineup, either as a direct result of being DH that day, or because Springer sees a lot of time at DH have recently been performing nicely as well. Springer has produced a 153 WRC+, and the backup outfielders who tend to play when he is DH have done well also, with Tapia having a 127 WRC+ and Zimmer with a 146 WRC+.

His results on fastballs in 2021 were pretty uninspiring as well with a .377 WOBA/.429 xWOBA. I don't pretend to have the answers of why this is, whether it's command related, fastball is too straight, lacks deception, hitters sitting dead red etc. but this is several seasons in a row where his fastball has largely been getting hammered.

Merryweather looks like he could benefit tremendously from altering his pitch usage a bit. He would likely benefit from lowering his fastball usage as he has been torched the last few seasons. The statcast numbers don't really suggest he's been unlucky with the pitch either as he's likely benefited from the deadened baseball. His xWOBA of .625 against fastballs is actually worse than the staggeringly bad .543 WOBA. Throwing this pitch over half the time to the tune of 52.1% makes no sense when it appears as though the opposition is likely sitting on this pitch. When you look at the results against his other pitches you see a completely different picture of dominance emerge; Slider: .191 WOBA/.148 xWOBA, 46.2% whiff rate, 23.7% usage. This is a money pitch, he should likely throw this half of the time until hitters show they can touch it Changeup: 0.00 WOBA/.087 xWOBA, -24 degree launch angle, 16.7% whiff rate, 14.2% usage. Another money pitch, not a lot of whiffs but generating an insane 72.1 MPH exit velocity. Maybe it doesn't play up as much if he reduces fastball rate too much. Curveball: 0.00 WOBA, .142 xWOBA, 28.6% whiff rate, 72.4 MPH exit velocity, 10% usage. Yet another potentially elite secondary pitch. I think with a drop of 4 seam fastball use to something of the 30-40% range will likely do Merryweather a world of good as up to this point the opposition has been totally shut down by his secondary pitches.

Damn that line up is a thing of beauty compared to the garbage we've typically been subjected to.

Hopefully the team can continue the recent offensive resurgence and allow Merryweather a chance to get into some lower pressure games. I believe he has remaining options unlike Borucki however so at least they won't lose him for nothing if he needs to be sent down unless the front office decides he's no longer worth using up a spot on the 40 man roster.

Yeah that was my observation as well, the helpless flailing at pitches off of the plate largely seemed to stop in this game. The team wasn't rewarded with the expected results of the great at bats as St. Louis has an amazing squad of defenders, but thankfully it's as if the team flipped a switch and started having better at bats. (aside from Tapia that is, he's almost swinging at as many pitches out of the strike zone as pitches in the strike zone during the last week).

It will be interesting to see if the front office will be willing to throw these kids into the fire and call them up in a probable pennant race despite their relative lack of professional experience. It appears that each has the raw stuff to retire major league hitters, but whether they can handle the pressure and expectations will be another issue altogether.

What Borucki was doing simply wasn't helping the ballclub in any way so it's not surprising to see him sent out. He'll be claimed almost instantly due to the quality of the stuff, it's just too bad he had no idea where the ball was going on a pitch to pitch basis. I'm not terribly excited to see Thornton come back given the more intriguing options of Hernandez and even Beasley, but at least Thornton has somewhat shown the ability to retire major league hitters.

The system has seen a lot of positive developments this season. Zulueta and Tiedemann have exploded onto the scene as exciting power starting prospects, Santos has come out of nowhere to strike out two batters per inning, Robberse has taken a step forward and inserted himself into the conversation, Gabriel Martinez has had a massive month of May, Groshans has had nice success in AAA despite not showing a lot of power, Orelvis Martinez has adjusted to AA and continued to launch moonshots, Moreno has begun to gain his footing in May in AAA etc.

You had to figure that was just a matter of time given how dominant he's been as a 19 year old. Zulueta is over 4 years older but he's been no less dominant and he's missed several seasons due to injury issues.

I don't get this either. I also think it's far less risky to DH one catcher and start the other one behind the plate because the chances of both of them suffering injury in the same game and having to come out of the game in this scenario can't be very high. The guy catching that day has to have a greater chance of injury due to the hundred plus projectiles being tossed in his direction, and losing the DH isn't the end of the world as you simply pinch hit for him if necessary. In the unlikely chance you have used up your bench players you just have a pitcher stand there and keep the bat on his shoulders. Any of those scenarios are preferable to having Espinal donning catchers gear and hoping for the best.

Even if Keuchel gained a few ticks of velocity he still wouldn't crack 90 MPH, not sure that's much of a recipe for success as a reliever in today's MLB.

This is just an indication of how toxic the internet has become over time where it's become more and more common for the crazy fringe of society to terrorize innocent victims without the fear of repercussions.