One last try, then I'm done.
To quote Fangraphs:
"Using FIP requires a bit of caution and it is best to think of it as a starting place for the analysis of pitcher performance, especially if you are interesting in determining how a pitcher is likely to perform in the future. In the long run, the majority of pitchers will have ERAs and FIPs that are very close together, but over the course of a season they could vary a great deal. Typically, people attribute the difference between the two to luck on balls in play, but there are other factors that can lead to a difference."
and
"FIP does a better job of predicting the future than measuring the present, as there can be a lot of fluctuation in small samples. It is less effective in describing a pitcher’s single game performance and is more appropriate in a season’s worth of innings. That doesn’t mean it isn’t a retrospective statistic, simply that it requires more than a handful of innings to be a reliable indicator of performance, just like any statistic."
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/fip/
We will just have to wait and see. I'll remember this discussion though if/when Hoffman plays in the majors.