It is all going to depend on the market this year. If it's a hot market and guys like Desclafani and Wood are landing 3 year deals, you have to ask yourself if you'd rather have Matz on a 1 year $18M deal or Desclafani/Wood at 3 years $36M (or something like that). I'd rather have Matz personally.
It's all kind of risk/reward evaluations - you'd hate to not qualify Matz and see him leave on a 4 year $60M deal where we missed out on a free compensation piece.
Ray, Scherzer, Rodon, Gausman, Stro and ERod are all getting multi year deals....They shouldn't be included in this discussion as we're likely trying to sign one of them already.
It's Matz, Pineda, Duffy, Bundy, Cobb, Paxton, Cueto, Martinez, Hill, Desclafani, Wood, Kluber, Gray, Grienke that will be looking at relatively short term deals and there's more than a few them I really have no interest in. If it's a soft market and you can get these guys at 1 year / $12M AND you have to get them to want to sign and play in Toronto (which means you might swing and miss at your top 2-3 options) are you going to lose sleep over the extra $6M you gave Matz when he's more of a known commodity in TO? Oh and if he wants to leave, you get compensation?
Syndergaard and Verlander are wild cards - obviously if they want a 1 year pillow deal and want to play in Toronto - then yeah, I want them over Matz.
To be honest - I think Gray is the guy you want. I'm happy to let Matz leave if we can get Gray on a 2 or 3 year deal (ideally with a club option).