Brownie19

I have to think some of your concern is based off this rather poor expectation. The Jays pre-season projected win total (per Fangraphs) was 92 wins, which was projected to be 3rd in MLB. In reality, the Jays are projected for 91 wins (same as TB and Seattle), but perceptions are thrown off because the Yanks jumped out to an unsustainable pace and other teams like Seattle and TB are out preforming their projections (and we also now have 4 teams projected to win 100+ games). I'm not sure how many wins you expected from this team at the start of the season, but it sounds like that # was too optimistic and now you're pissed at this team, when in reality, they are performing right at the expected level.

Do you know whether this is true, or is this just your perception? What is streaky? Is streaky winning 8 of 10 and then winning 2 of the next 10? Do you expect them to win 6 out of 10 consistently all year long without variation? Have you looked into teams like TB, Seattle and Baltimore who are battling with the Jays and do you believe they are streaky or more consistent? Interestingly enough I found the following: Jays v. AL East: 29-24 (.547) AL Cent: 19-15 (.559) AL West: 15-14 (.517) Inter: 12-6 (.667) Home: 38-29 (.567) Road: 37-30 (.552) ExInn: 7-6 (.538) 1Run: 27-17 (.614) If you look at the sum of the parts, that seems pretty consistent for a team with a .560 winning %. The Jays are also 7-3 in the last 10, 14-6 in their last 20 and 17-13 in their last 30. By month the Jays are: April - 14-8 (.636) May - 14-12 (.538) June - 15-13 (.536) July - 14-12 (.538) Aug/Sept - 18-14 (.563) If you look at Baltimore (.532 winning %) you get this: AL East: 27-31 AL Cent: 15-15 AL West: 19-10 Inter: 10-8 Home: 39-27 Road: 32-37 ExInn: 8-4 1Run: 18-21 sub .500 v. AL East and on the Road this year, while crushing it at home and v. the AL West. Oddly doing great in extra innings, while not so good in 1 run games. Is this streaky? I think this streaky narrative is fiction. The reality of it all is that this team is probably exactly what you see today. Their a good team with a great offense that's going to win a Wild Card birth unless the Yanks continue to implode. Once in the playoffs, they'll be hard pressed to win, but stranger things have happened.

This is my perception was well. I don't think some fans understand just how streaky teams actually are (probably because they only follow the Jays and thus aren't exposed to all the ups and downs that other teams experience). Is there any site that tracks the variance of runs scored per game? It feels like there should be.

I think you mean Top 4. Seattle is stacked.

It's been great to watch Cavan dig his way out of the whole and back into the lineup. When Espy sits, we our lineup now features 9 batters with a wRC+ over 110...that's insane.

I have to think Romano's advanced stats suggest he's been quite a bit better over the past 1.5 months. Velo seems to be up, slider is harder and sharper.

Yeah the Cards have really grown on my over the years. What a solid organization. Cards, Mets, Braves - I'm good with any of them making the WS. I'm kind of over LA now. Normally I wouldn't want to see Atlanta return to the finals, but they are too much fun now and have new guys doing it this year (Acuna, Olson, Grissom, Harris, Strider, etc.).

Braves, Mets, Cards, LA - the NL playoffs are going to be incredible this year.

Imagine if Seattle fixes Kelenic (and Winker)

Have they moved Gunner off SS permanently?

He needs to work a needle into his rehab routine if he's coming to TO.

Remember that if Stro pitches well in 2023, he can opt-out. So he could only be a 1 year investment at $25M (actally $27M if he reaches 160 innings, which is likely). What's the going rate for $ per WAR? It used to be like $9M/WAR, but I think it's dropped a lot. I would expect Stro to post a 3 WAR season, so I could see him being 'worth' $25M next year and thus almost worth his contract. That's better than Kikuchi's value of -$20M.

I think you could. The Cubs aren't ready to win, Stroman hasn't been great or worth the deal. If they could free up some more money and land a quality prospect - I think they'd certainly consider that. Assuming the FO believes Kikuchi is 100% sunk cost, would this team want to give up a solid prospect and pay Stroman $12M/year? Maybe if the price for Stripling is too high - that's not a bad short term option. Stro as an opt-out after '23 or you have him until the end of the 2024 season. Really depends who that prospect is. Would it take Orelvis?

They obviously wouldn't. We'd have to include a legit prospect in the deal.

good lord.

Giants release Ken Giles. He must be cooked.

There's no point in engaging with you. Your ignorance is annoying and creates inaccurate view points and observations. You live on Mount Stupid and honestly, you should do more listening/learning and less posting.

148 wRC+ on the season. That's absolutely insane.

Man - I'm done engaging with you. Laika summed it up nicely.

I don't watch sports interviews for obvious reasons, but can you tell me which pitchers have gone on record claiming the Jays big weakness is the lack of a LH bat? Are you referring to actual current pitchers? or retired pitchers on the broadcast and/or MLB network? At the end of the day, this team has the 4th highest wRC+ in all of baseball this year and the 3rd highest wRC+ v. RHP. Would the lineup be 'better' if it had a couple of left handed stars in it? Yes, I'm sure it could be - but the lack of good left handed batters in this lineup has to be near the bottom of list of worries about this team. jaysblue can claim the Jays only beat up on s***** RHP who should be in the minors, but FFS, you aren't 3rd in the MLB v. RHP if that's the only righties you can hit. The reality is that MOST (all?) teams suck v. the best pitchers and beat up on s***** pitchers.

What are you smoking?

Pretty awesome stuff for a guy taken in the 35th round.

His % of balls hit to the opposite field are almost identical as 2021 (grounders, liners and flyballs). It's true he doesn't have as many HRs to the opposite field, but he's still doing a lot of damage there. They keep saying the balls are 'deader' this year, which may be reducing the # of oppo tacos. There's also an element of luck involved here.

I must say I f***ing love Matt Chapman. I understand that it's unlikely we sign him beyond next year and that there would be a lot of risk with that, but I really do wish we had him for the next 3-4 years. The guy is a game changer.

He must read this board and wanted to give Stangstag the ole FU tonight!