We've been through this about 75 times already. This offense was 7th in MLB last year in wRC+ (higher than Philly, Baltimore), even while we had pretty bad years from Vlad, Kirk, Varsho and Springer. Did we struggle to score runs last year? Yes. Is that a statistical anomaly? It may have been. Our BA with RISP started out awful last year - just dreadful luck, but it did turn around in the 2nd half and we ended up near the middle of the pack.
Even if nothing really changes from last year, we probably should land between the 7th and 12th best offense in baseball (argue that's not enough all you want). People can suggest nothing has changed except a downgrade at 3rd, but player development and year to year improvement is a thing. Whether you call it a bounce back or just development, it's not unrealistic to expect Vlad, Kirk, Biggio, Varsho, etc. to simply be better than last year. We also have a full season with Davis Schneider and have other internal options at AAA that may be able to help our offense (Barger, Horwitz, Orelvis, etc.). Of course it would be great to see our baserunning improve from last year. Minor changes in philosophy could play a bit part in that.
If our starters play to their potential, this is probably a Top 5-8 offense. Is it a bit of a thin line? Yeah, for sure it is. But, for a team built on pitching and defense, that should be more than sufficient to have success.