Brownie19
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Everything posted by Brownie19
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Baseball is all probabilities these days...
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That's a pretty powerful swing. Reminds me of Orelvis a bit.
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To be fair - Ross has had several good/great FA signings. That's one of his strengths. Semien, Ray, Belt, Gausman, Jimi, Kikuchi, 2023 KK, LGJ, Daniel Hudson, Seunghwan Oh, Steve Pearce, David Phelps
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I think Atkins was due to have someone perform in the 90th percentile outcome. God knows we've had far too many players provide a bottom 5th percentile outcome (Bo's 2024, Nate Pearson, Kirk, etc.).
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He's a good example of someone with elite tools who figured out how to use them. As you stated, the question is whether he can repeat this success year after year.
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Pretty nice to see 90th percentile EV and bat speed. Loud tools.
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I'm really excited to see him get regular at bats the rest of the year. The tools are loud - I hope he can show us he belongs.
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Bo is going to be very motivated to prove this year was a fluke and that he's a franchise player heading into free agency as a 28 year old player. I think there's a massive probability that Bo rebounds next year.
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I think that depends on your definition of success. You see zero playoff wins and think that means it's a colossal failure. Others see a team that averaged 90 wins, but didn't win the coin flips in the playoffs. For all we know, Rogers is quite happy with the recent results (outside of this year). I kind of expect that the objective next year may be to assemble a 80-85 win team - keep the stadium packed with naive fans, while hopefully developing some younger players. There's an avenue for this to happen with some FA dollars. You and other fans may hate this idea, but the Owners may love it.
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I've been fooled! my bad.
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dogg got a new handle? great.
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Not according to this - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2024&batSide=&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling= Sorry - instead of asking, I decided to just go look myself and edited my post. Where'd you get 23rd from?
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I agree with all of this. We aren't signing Soto. Bregman would scare the s*** out of me on a long term deal. Big drop in BB% this year, which typically means the bat speed and skills are eroding. I'd take him on a 1 year deal if he wants to rebuild his value though... That got me thinking about the Rogers park factor and whether it's changed much this year. Even found the numbers myself - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2024&batSide=&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling= Looks like Rogers Centre has been pretty consistent, before and after the renos. I thought that was interesting as there was a lot of chatter last year that the team f***ed up the hitting environment.
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With the grand slam today, his wRC+ is back up to -19 on the season.
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Might be a good time to shutdown Yariel for the year.
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I would generally agree the returns are similar. I understand the extra year of control (at $12M) adds good value. I don't agree Stroman was a better pitcher when traded (4.06 xFIP v. 3.41 xFIP for Kikuchi this year and Kikuchi's striking out 3 more per 9 and walking less than Stro was). You also have to consider the market differences between 2019 and 2024. I'm just not sure the "difference" is SOOOO much that I'd claim that someone else must be in charge now because this trade deadline was a lot better than what Atkins usually does as a seller. Not sure I buy that.
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1st - Harris has been awful and continues to decline after a great rookie season. 2nd - that will mean Soler becomes a bench player? They can't start 2 DH's. Soler is starting RF tonight for the first time all year. Are the Braves going to decline Ozuna's $16M 2025 club option? Seems odd after the season he's had. They'll now have Soler until the end of 2026. Can't see them carrying both Ozuna and Soler next year. Odd move by AA and the Braves IMO. Pure desperation from a team that was the best offense in baseball by a MILE last year, which is now 21st in runs scored and 18th in wRC+ Very reminiscent of the Blue Jays over the past couple of years. Better fire those coaches! They must be telling the players to hit differently.
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Is Atlanta going to play either Soler or Ozuna in the outfield now? I'm confused.
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Perfect - just in time to trade him to the O's for a haul of prospects! I still can't believe what they gave up for Rogers.
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Is it? I mean a lot of these deals remind me of the McKinney/Drury/Espinal/Merryweather type trades. You think Bloss and Loperfido are better than SWR/Kay? Most of them won't produce anything. You're just hoping that 1 or 2 of them become what Teo and Espinal became for the Jays. I mean obviously we hope one of those becomes the Yordan for Josh Fields trade, but that s*** is all mostly luck anyway.
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Baseball America ranked every prospect (89) moved at the deadline. Bloss was 3rd, Loperfido was 11th I believe. Jay Harry was 89th
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Yeah - I think that's a possibility. I'm just worried about the value of the players they'll end up letting walk if they are actually "going for it" next year. It's a pretty long list. That said, former baseball executive, David Samson was on the Blair/Barker show this evening did say "I'll tell you this, everyone is after this - you want the ring and the way you get the ring, is A - you've got to get to October, but then you've got to get lucky." This reinforces my belief in that. The playoffs are a coin flip most of the time. He also said what I believe is true. "The best currency in baseball is overperforming young players (who aren't getting paid yet). It's what you need to win."
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I'm still somewhat optimistic about his bat. Lots of catchers struggle with the bat early on while they are mastering the catching position. This guy hit at every level, including early success in the majors. I still remain hopeful there's a 100-110 wRC+ bat in there somewhere.
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Agreed. How much money does that take? LOL
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Outman and KK have the same wRC+ this season (53). That's one hell of a sophomore slump.
