metafour

Bros, Nimmala just did it again LMFAO. 2 for 3, HR, BB so far tonight.

1B/DH only players who were comparable hitters to him (or even better hitters in some cases) signed extensions in their mid 20's for nowhere near $300M (eg: Yordan Alvarez, Paul Goldschmidt). Don't you think that those players' agents would tell them to just wait for free agency is they thought that there was $300+ million on the table for them? Agents are paid a percentage of the total contract signed. It makes zero sense to suggest that all of those players signed extensions that ended up losing both the player AND agent millions of dollars. The idea that Vlad is going to get $100+ million more than the established "market value" of a bad defensive 1B/DH because he is 1-2 years younger than normal is a giant leap of an assumption. If you are going to try to argue, at least do ten seconds of research. This statement is absurdly false: 2019: .772 OPS 2020: .791 OPS 2021: 1.002 OPS 2022: .819 OPS 2023: .789 OPS 2024: .930 OPS As you can see, it is nowhere near "yEar aFtEr yeaR". It is TWO (2) seasons of elite hitting. The literal problem here is that he is NOT a "consistently elite hitter".

I never stated that he had "no marketability", I am challenging the completely unfounded notion that apparently he is so marketable that Rogers has no choice but to meet whatever crazy nonsensical demands he has. This is what the argument being made is: "well of course he's not worth anywhere near $300+M as a player, but he is so marketable that Rogers has no choice but to give in to his demands". There is zero proof that Guerrero has anywhere near that much marketing potential such that it is going to force ownership to hand him a contract that is completely balls to the wall out of line with the market for 1B/DH type players. Vladimir Guerrero is not Ohtani. Surely you are smart enough to understand that. Ohtani has "marketing value" outside his on-field performance because whatever team he plays for has immediate and instant access to the market that is the entire nation of Japan. Japan is a first-world country with a population of ~120+ million, and the most popular sport is baseball. Broadcasting rights, partnerships with Japanese brands and companies, merchandise sales, etc., etc. are all at play for the team that controls Ohtani. What does Vlad Guerrero give you access to? The booming economy of the third world Dominican Republic? Don't make me laugh. Guerrero is just an average young "star", no different than any other player of his ability around the league. This season he ranks 14th in the league in jersey sales. What is interesting is that Bo Bichette (who has been injured and having a terrible season otherwise) is 19th in sales. What is even more interesting is that Pete Alonso ranks above both at #12, and Alonso is player that the Mets have had little interest in extending. He is insanely popular among their fans, and yet you don't see the Mets blowing the market apart to keep him on the team. In fact, they are going to let him go to free agency, and apparently the market for him is underwhelming (despite the fact that he is a proven hitter, sells jerseys, wins HR Derbies, etc). I deliberately stated that Guerrero was not particularly well liked in the PREVIOUS two seasons - and this is 100% true. To pretend otherwise is nonsense. You post on this forum, don't you? Prior to this season the fan narrative was that he was fat, lazy, not serious about the game or his fitness, and he was catching routine flack for loafing on the field and not running out ground balls to first base. There were all sorts of posts made about how the coaches were coddling him and afraid to sit him for his poor effort. He was berated as an underachiever following his 2021 season. The reason why I bring this up is because this was just a year ago. Nobody in their right mind was claiming that Rogers' profitability was riding on Vlad being kept long-term at any cost in 2022 or 2023. But here we are, a year later and apparently he is SO VALUABLE that Shapiro is going to be forced to break the market to sign him? No, man. Stop. His marketability is entirely tied to his performance, just like 99% of the rest of the players in the league. He is not "special" like Ohtani. He is simply the best player on the Blue Jays. Yes, there is "marketability" tied to that, but it also isn't particularly difficult to market players in Toronto. Rogers has a massive natural boost in the fact that this is the only team in Canada, and this extends to whoever the best player on the team is. So like I said, if Vlad's demands are totally out of line with what the number-crunchers in Shapiro's front office calculate his value to be, they will simply move on and find another "franchise player" to market. He is NOT "irreplaceable", which is why it is completely baseless to suggest that Rogers has no choice but to pay him as if he is Juan Soto (which is what the fan narrative seems to be).

He's not. The guy barely speaks English. The past two seasons he was generally loathed by fans as an underachiever, and now he is apparently so valuable that they will be forced to hand him a blank cheque? Its just fans being hyperbolic as usual.

I highly doubt that Rogers is jumping with excitement to pay ANY player $300M+ (who's name isn't Ohtani). Shapiro will just tell them that its stupid and they will land another "franchise player". He also isn't some green exec who is going to be steamrolled by ownership. Teams have learned that fans are idiots and they will change their tune on a dime. Therefore its not worth gutting your payroll to keep fans happy for a few seasons. They will grow tired of Guerrero like every other player before him. George Springer was "marketable" as well for about 1-2 seasons before he started regressing. Funny, I don't think that Rogers is making too much money on Springer's "marketability" anymore. Fans also grossly overstate the "franchise player" rhetoric. Before Guerrero they had Donaldson, and before that there was Bautista. Even Vernon Wells was seen as a franchise player for a minute. Before that they had Halladay, and before that came Delgado. History has shown that when one "franchise player" leaves, the next isn't that far away. There is no scenario where Rogers is left with nobody to market in Uncrustables PB&J commercials if Guerrero leaves.

Fans don't decide who gets paid like a Superstar. Talk about a useless post.

This is an analytically driven organization. They will not do something stupid like over-value his "off field value", whatever that is. You are actually seeing more and more "franchise players" around the league either completely left to go elsewhere through free agency, or traded away...because the home team does not believe in the value of extending them. Mookie Betts (Boston). Carlos Correa and George Springer (Houston). Corey Seager (Dodgers). Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, and Trea Turner (Washington). None of these are examples of "cheap" organizations who just couldn't afford to keep these players. Even the Mets let deGrom leave. Again, teams are becoming less and less driven by emotional decisions ("zOMG nobody will buy tickets if we lose this ONE player!"). Mark Shapiro is not the type of exec who is going to overpay a 1B/DH because he is the "franchise player". Those execs barely exist anymore period.

Teams are not stupid. If he wants term (ie: YEARS), they will reduce the AAV. This is how it works. The Jays would likely be happy to pay him $30M AAV...over ~7-8 years. If he says that he wants 10 or 12 years, they will reduce the AAV. He will not get BOTH at the same time. 1B/DH-only players do NOT have the power to negotiate around that. That power hasn't existed for 10+ years now. Again, in order for Matt Olson to get 8 years, he had to take a significant haircut on the AAV. He could have received a higher AAV from the Braves, but it would have come with a reduction in the total years.

You miss the point: the market has changed dramatically since 2011/2012. Teams are smarter in how they value players now. You need to realize that Pujols, Votto, and Fielder all got 9-10 year contracts as 1B within 1-2 years of each other. Since then, there have been ZERO 1B to land anything over 8 years. ZERO. And that is over a decade. Matt Olson got 8 years two seasons ago, but he had to take a loss on his AAV in order to do so. He is paid only ~$21M per year, which is well below market value for a player of his output. Nobody is giving a 1B/DH type both market-value AAV and term (years) at the same time; it is one or the other. The only players who are getting both yearly AAV and term (ie: the $300+M examples) are players who play premium positions (SS, 3B, CF). As Passan correctly mentioned; Harper was not signed as a 1B - the fact that he is playing 1B 3-4 seasons into his deal does not make him comparable to Vlad. And yes, even a "bad" defensive RF is going to be valued much higher than any 1B.

Jeff Passan is 100% correct. Jays fans don't understand markets or how they work:

The Orioles finna f*** around and win nothing before Mike Elias leaves for a bigger job opening lol.

Nimmala just hit another HR to go along with a 2B in tonight's game. The power is peaking hard lately.

17th round HS SS Gavin Smith has indeed signed. I think the max they had for him was ~$250K, so thats likely around what he signed for.

Will Wagner in his Buffalo debut: 2 for 3, 2B, BB

Kiley McDaniel's ranking of prospects traded: #2: Jake Bloss (50 FV) #7: Joey Loperfido (45+ FV) #21: Charles McAdoo (40+ FV) #26: Jonatan Clase (40+ FV) Honorable Mention: Cutter Coffey (40 FV)

Womp womp. Kiley McDaniel just released his ranking of all of the prospects traded at the deadline. #2: Jake Bloss #7: Joey Loperfido Guess he didn't get the memo that they were just overrated prospects from a s***** system. By the way; he has Bloss over Klassen, Agustin Ramirez, Lesko, Liranzo, etc. He has Loperfido over all 3 of the notable prospects the Padres traded for Jason Adam (Snelling, Mazur, Pauley).

He is elite, but there is a long way to go. He has 15.7 career WAR at age 24. Francisco Lindor by comparison had 22.8 career WAR at the end of his age 24 season.

Yesavage just signed. Slightly overslot so that likely finishes out our class unless Gavin Smith isn't signing for mch more than $150K.

Bo has a lot of leg injuries that are piling up. All to the same leg as well I'm pretty sure. Vlad was just a case of whether he could remember what made him good in the first place.

Connor Norby is just a more hyped version of Davis Schneider. Pedestrian EV data and strikeout concerns with passable at best defense at 2B. Schneider actually hits the ball harder than Norby. Norby is super overrated.

It doesn't work like that, but OK!

Bloss has thrown 10 MLB innings. Zero point trying to pick apart his stuff (which is up since being drafted a year ago) in a sample size that small . Its 6 years of control of a #4-5 starter; potentially #3 if he keeps improving. Loperfido has obvious risk. Could be Derek Fisher, or Teoscar Hernandez. But he can play defense so it's a valuable bench option regardless. Wagner has some elite underlying data. He is basically Spencer Horwitz-lite. You are correct that none of these players are likely to be stars, but it isn't often that you are getting three players who are all a fart away from potentially putting up 1.5-3 WAR in the MLB for a half-season of a non-elite starter.

In the last 5 seasons they have had 5 different players finish in the Top 5 in ROY voting in the AL. So every single season they have brought up a new rookie from their farm system who has made an MLB impact. Regardless of their "MLB farm system ranking" (lol) they are churning out young MLB talent year after year. That is the actual purpose of "drafting" by the way (it isn't to rank high on some arbitrary list). As Carlos mentioned, during this period they were also penalized by losing several top picks, so their yearly allocated bonus pools have been among the lowest in the league. Despite this handicap they continue to find players who are shooting through the minors and onto their MLB team (like Bloss). Many of these players aren't giving them many "prospect list points", either because they are moving too quickly, or because they are being undervalued by writers and by the time its known how good they are they are already playing at the MLB level and no longer eligible to pad their prospect rankings. Jeremy Peña for example has been a ~3 WAR shortstop and he never made a single MLB.com Top 100 ranking (I think he may have made one BA list one year in the ~80-100 range). The other obvious "proof" for their drafting and development is the fact that the vast majority of their team is home-grown.

The Astros are seriously good at drafting/developing. All 3 of the guys we received were underslot college draftees that weren't selected with top picks (Bloss 3rd round, Loperfido 7th round, Wagner 18th round). Loperfido and Wagner were even College Seniors.

Sure, 2023 may in fact have been a 3 WARish season without "bad luck", but a ~3 WAR 1B still isn't worth whatever his asking price is, so it really doesn't change the narrative on whether we should extend him. $300M+ requires him to hit with the current/2021 batted ball/plate discipline metrics. This is the big question mark. If he is going to sign his mega deal and revert back to making poor swing decisions (and thus revert back to ~3 WAR) then it will be a really really bad signing.