metafour

Recent draftees Brennan Orf (13th round) and Bryce Arnold (UDFA) are making their pro debuts with Dunedin tonight.

He just hit a double lol.

Davis Schneider just homered again lol (#20). He is 2 for 2 with a BB.

Orelvis just cleared the bases with a double, after already hitting a line drive single earlier in the inning. He's 2 for 3 with 4 RBI.

The Vancouver Canadians were no-hit for 11 innings and collected two hits in the 12th inning to win in a walk-off lol.

Man what an elite pickup by Ross. A real master class in player acquisition.

I used that term because you clearly presented that trade package as if it was a big deal, when in fact it wasn't at all. It was one Top 100 prospect and 4 mid-level throw ins. Tiedemann entered the season as #31 on BA's Top 100 and only dropped because he suffered a non-serious injury and didn't pitch. He is currently #50 on their list but is back pitching and could easily shoot back up if he closes strong. I never said that he was a "phenom", I said that he is easily worth as much as Yusniel Diaz was at the time of the Machado trade, which he absolutely is (in fact he likely has a higher ceiling). And Diaz was literally the main piece in acquiring Machado. Here is what Longenhagan wrote about the trade when it was made: "As far as Future Values go, Diaz is a 45+ for us right now and was only left off our recent top 131 due to his lack of power output in games, which is a concern for a likely left fielder. He projects as an average regular. Kremer, Pop, and Valera are all 40 FV players, with Kremer having the best chance to outpace that mark if he develops a way to deal with lefties. Pop and Valera are high-probability big leaguers almost certainly ticketed for lesser roles. Bannon is a 35+ FV as a likely org guy with a chance to transform a few niche attributes into something more than that." Tiedemann is a 55 FV on Fangraphs right now. So actually, Fangraphs considers him much better than Diaz lol. Again, at the time of the trade: "As far as Future Values go, Diaz is a 45+ for us right now and was only left off our recent top 131 due to his lack of power output in games, which is a concern for a likely left fielder. He projects as an average regular. Kremer, Pop, and Valera are all 40 FV players, with Kremer having the best chance to outpace that mark if he develops a way to deal with lefties. Pop and Valera are high-probability big leaguers almost certainly ticketed for lesser roles. Bannon is a 35+ FV as a likely org guy with a chance to transform a few niche attributes into something more than that." The career fWAR agrees to what was predicted at the time. The Orioles didn't get s***. Your point does not stand unless you believe that Ohtani is literally 3+ times better/worth more than Machado was in 2018 when he was traded. Machado was a 7 fWAR player in 2018; literally one of the best players in the entire league. Your actual statement was that Guerrero and Tiedemann isn't even close to enough for Ohtani, which is hilariously asinine. I just showed you that the package that LA sent for Machado was extremely light, and yet you think that Guerrero (a proven MLB player who is worth considerably more than pie in the sky "prospects") and Tiedemann (who is probably better than any prospect that was sent for Machado) isn't even close? My guy, Ohtani is not THAT much better than Machado was. He is a rental, just like Machado was. Teams aren't stupid anymore.

Right, so at the trade deadline Machado was already up to 4 fWAR that season (he finished with 7 fWAR) and yet all Baltimore could get for him was LA's 4th best prospect and 4 other guys who were "lottery picks". You're literally proving the point. Diaz was a Top 100 prospect, but he was nowhere near a "superstar prospect". I mean, the final point here is that not one of those 5 players that the Orioles acquired for Machado are a key piece in their current success. The best player there is Dean Kremer and he's putting up a 0.5 fWAR season for Baltimore. He's also the only player still with the team. That package was not "a lot" at all. And this isn't even hindsight talking, you just said it yourself: they got LA's 4th best prospect and 4 other mid-tier guys, for an elite player (Machado). Yes Ohtani is worth more than Machado, but I don't think you understand that Guerrero (even with his "decline") and Tiedemann is hilariously more than that trash-dump list of players that LA traded for Machado. Vladimir Guerrero is a young MLB regular, he's not a "prospect". That has more value than you seem to think it does. How do we know? Well, all 5 of those players put together don't have anywhere near Guerrero's career fWAR. He's THAT far above those "prospects" ended up being. Again, this is just a buzz sentence that doesn't actually correlate with real trade valuation. It's 3 months of a player. The fact that it's a "generational player" doesn't magically mean that anyone is trading multiple MLB players and/or elite prospects for what is still at the end of the day a rental. No, Ohtani doesn't even guarantee anyone a WS win. The Angels don't have as much bargaining power as you seem to think they do, and all they can do is trade him for the best package presented to them, or hold onto him like idiots. If you've followed the trade deadline recently, you'd know that teams are very reluctant to part with elite prospects. The Jays literally got two years of Matt Chapman for Gunnar Hoglund (who hadn't even thrown a pro pitch yet and was coming off TJ surgery) and Kevin Smith. But now for some reason some of you think that 3 months of Ohtani is going to land the Angels proven MLB stars with control, or super-elite prospects? 3 months of Ohtani has a numerical value - the fact that he's a "generational talent" doesn't mean that teams will defy common logic all of a sudden.

Uhm, Yusniel Diaz wasn't even the Dodgers best prospect at the time he was traded. He immediately scuffled after being traded and fell to #71 on BA's rankings in 2019. The rest of those guys you named were decent throw ins. You just kind of proved the point. The Orioles didn't even get one elite prospect for Machado. Diaz was never an "elite" prospect, not with the Dodgers and definitely not with the Orioles. All of those guys you just named put together are not even close to Guerrero. So I'm not exactly sure how you just named those guys and then concluded with "Guerrero and Tiedemann aren't even in the ballpark". You realize that Guerrero is approaching ~10 MLB WAR and is under control for multiple seasons, correct? Tiedemann alone is worth as much as Yusniel Diaz. He only "dropped" in rankings because of a non-significant injury.

Ohtani has never even been in the playoffs, so what do you qualify his playoff worth as? The playoffs are extremely small sample, which means that he can EASILY underwhelm over a 4-5 game series and be worth little to nothing. You don't even need to go back far in time for the perfect example of this. The Yankees were bounced 4-0 by the Astros in the ALCS just last season. Over those 4 games, Aaron Judge hit a whopping .063/.118/.063. He had 1 hit in 16 at bats. Aaron Judge was worth 11.5 fWAR last season and had a comical 207 wRC+ over the full season. As you probably remember it was an all-time great hitting season. It didn't help the Yankees one lick over 4 games against the Astros. I don't see what a 1992 trade has any relevance in this discussion. It's 2023, all of these MLB teams are run by data-nerds (the Orioles especially) and they are all making moves based off of expected value coming in vs. out. There is no chance in hell that any smart front office is moving the absurd value of Jackson Holliday for 3 months of Ohtani, when all of these teams understand that the playoffs are a crap-shoot anyway, which means that Ohtani doesn't even guarantee you anything. This isn't the 1990's anymore when teams had no idea how to properly compare asset value. Elite prospects rarely get traded these days, and when they do it is for players who have years of control.

"The #1 talent in MLB history" is just a sentence that has no bearing on trade calculation. Ohtani is a baseball player that is worth an expected amount of wins over 3 months of gametime. Just how much value do you think he brings over 3 months? Hint: it's far less than what Jackson Holliday is worth. You're acting like Ohtani is worth 10+ wins over 3 months; when in reality the Angels aren't even a playoff team with him.

Nobody is trading the #1 prospect in baseball for a 3-month rental. I don't give a s*** how good Ohtani is. Holliday is absurdly good.

No, it really doesn't. His pitch-calling is also ass and does not grade well. He has a good arm behind the plate and so far he has shown a pool-noodle at the plate with next to no power. His lack of power actually started once he was promoted to AAA. He hit for a crappy .105 ISO in AAA despite batting .315. That has continued at the MLB level. He also doesn't walk much so unless he starts learning to drive the ball (his Statcast metrics are not promising) he will continue being a non-impact bat.

Arizona's 83 wRC+ catcher? Thoughts aren't that great tbh.

I mean, the guy is not old and provided massive value the past two full seasons while running a 99 and 106 wRC+. He was actually a fairly safe player because he provides so much defensive and baseunning value and wasn't dependent on hitting (this is still true as he is still a positive WAR player). Who or what could have predicted that his wRC+ would collapse by 30+ points? He is still hitting the ball hard (Max EV) but his barrel rate has collapsed. He is just completely lost at the plate. Don't BS me and pretend like you "knew" he'd somehow turn into one of the worst hitters in the league at age 27. s*** happens. What was your take on the Berrios trade last year? You loved it right?

Sanchez and Romero are both guys who had massive command problems all throughout the minors. With Sanchez, it was very clear: he was able to harness his arm-strength for one full seasons, and that was his 3.5 WAR season. The year prior to that season he was a 5.95 K/9 to 4.29 BB/9 pitcher, and the season immediately after he posted 6.00 K/9 to 5.00 BB/9 - both of those are horrible. Again, he was a ~5+ BB/9 all throughout the minors. So his ~1.5 seasons of good pitching are a complete outlier to the massive track-record of piss-poor pitching he had. Romero was much of the same, as he looked like a total bust in the minors (he was essentially written off entirely, that's how underwhelming he was). He was able to salvage himself for a few seasons at the MLB level, but his underlying peripherals were never amazing even when he was good. The main difference again is that both of those were guys who were outright bad for long stretches in the minors, which made their MLB "resurgence" much more suspicious as there was no track record to believe they would be any good. Manoah didn't throw much in the minors, but he completely dominated. Then he came up and dominated in the MLB for ~300 straight innings. His collapse came out of nowhere, and if you actually look at it, it seems very likely tied to the rule change about pace of play. He worked very slowly last season, and he came in fatter than ever. So an already slow pitcher comes in out of shape and he's forced to pitch at a considerably faster pace. Sure, maybe he just sucks out of nowhere all of a sudden, but this is a guy who had no command/control issues who is now walking 6.35 per 9. It's very likely that he just can't handle this pace of play, as opposed to he just somehow forgot how to pitch. Now I guess you could make the case that maybe he'll just never recuperate because he inherently has to work slowly to be any good, but it seems pretty silly to conclude that after 16 starts you need to fire him off into the sun when his entire track-record prior that that was elite. Jonathan India had some pedigree, but don't forget that he was an under-slot pick at #5. He was rated much closer to #10 in his draft class than he was to #5. So not really any different from Manoah's pedigree. The Fangraphs writeup on India was that he had no plus tools but could be a solid regular....after his ROY season he has basically become that: a guy who hits a bit with ok or worse defense. I guess part of my confusion here is that you know that Biggio/Espinal suck, but apart from some prospect pedigree, what makes India that much different? Biggio was a 2.7 WAR player his first season (not much unlike India) and Espinal has been a ~2 WAR player the last two seasons before he started sucking this season. Sure India is better, but he's not even that clear an upgrade to justify the cost of trading a young pitcher who was a Cy Young finalist for him. Merrifield is better than India and they got him for two low-end prospects.

You're high lmao. Whoopity doo a ~100 wRC+ 2B with below average defense. There is nothing overly interesting about India's Statcast data either. This isn't a guy who hits the ball incredibly hard or flashes elite traits. Manoah was a Cy Young finalist just a year ago and in his rookie season was also on pace for 3+ WAR over a full season's worth of starts. He actually not only has a higher peak to date, but he's also been very good for longer (almost two seasons vs. just one for India), and he's younger to boot as well. What's the major difference between India and Biggio?

I understand what you are doing, but I don't quite get the logic. How is this trading Manoah while he "still has value"? Keep in mind that both Berrios and Kikuchi were negative pitchers last season, and they are both positive this season and a large part of why this team is still competitive. Pitchers I feel are much easier to correct than hitters. In this case, you are talking about a 25 year old who has already had elite performance at this level and was spotless in the minors (which is why he breezed through so fast). You would actually be dumping him absurdly quickly, and in this hypothetical I don't think you're even doing it for much reward (India).

Of course, it was tongue-in-cheek. But Manoah is a massive douche-canoe who came up quickly and immediately dominated, which likely gave him the false confidence that he could just do whatever he wanted to. He's been thoroughly embarrassed this season, so I'd have to assume given how competitive he is that he's going to go home and have a lot of incentive to not go out a laughing stock. I don't see what the rush would be to try to get rid of him at his absolute lowest point, and for Jonathan India? A guy who has been struggling for longer than he has, and who really doesn't present much intrigue because he's not even a good defender. And again, India's "best" wasn't even as good as Manoah's "best", so it's not like the Jays would be getting a guy with a bigger ceiling than the guy they are shipping out. Seems like a pointless trade considering that the Jays do in fact have several infielders who are near MLB ready.

No, I wouldn't do that. Why would you? Manoah is fat as s*** and is struggling big time with the pitch clock change, which is likely what is fueling his collapse. You lock him into a room and force him to lose weight. His "issues" seem much more fixable than whatever is going on with India. In reality, India might just be very average and his rookie season easily could have been a mirage. He's not doing much with the bat and his defense isn't very good either. Manoah's "peak" was also better than India's peak as well, so what's the benefit to the Jays here? Also, the Jays are not lacking in high minors 2B types. Barger? Martinez? Jimenez? Hell, Schneider? It's not like India is a gold glove defender.

You could have also seen Kikuchi give up a HR to Hernandez.

Watts-Brown gets the remainder of the bonus pool. Top 10 rounds all signed now.

Sem Robberse is a real prospect having a pretty decent season as a 21 year old in AA. Hernandez is a rental OF posting a 102 OPS wRC+ with bad defense and a 31.6% K rate. I doubt it.

Barriera back up to Dunedin: 3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K He back!

Teams like the Rays and Orioles have a big advantage in that their ownership is notoriously cheap and thus their fans have zero built-in expectations, which means that they can always just operate smartly without any outside pressure to do otherwise. If you remember, this FO came in and was immediately blasted by the legacy baseball writers in Canada. They were already at a negative position with the fanbase because of the irregular circumstances of how they came in before they even made a baseball move, and they have an Ownership group that cares more about how the fanbase perceives the team than Tampa or Baltimore do. Unfortunately, they have bosses themselves who will largely dictate the direction of the team. This was immediately felt with their move of attempting to "gently" rebuild while still trying to compete with Donaldson. These guys are obviously smart enough to know that they should have sold high on Donaldson and blown up the team, but imagine they actually did that given the fan opinion of Shapiro and company when they were hired? It was very obvious that their direction was largely being dictated by Rogers. The same applies to the speed at which they went to try to contend with Vlad/Bo. They were hired at the peak of an unprecedented nation wide re-interest in the team. Once they started winning faster than expected it became very easy to tell that Rogers was going to want to strike while the iron was still hot from the 2015 season.