metafour

Sure, but this FO's first draft class was in 2016 and since then they have failed to sign a total of zero players drafted within the Top 10 rounds. They have no misses. And it's not like they're just taking college kids with every pick. It's just funny that we're still at the point of "boy, I hope they can sign all of these guys". Their draft classes are clearly incredibly calculated - they generally end up spending right down to the limit before penalty. If they drafted someone with a Top 10 round pick, it's because they intend on signing the player. That has been concluded by now.

Again, he wouldn't have been drafted in the 4th round. That's a big miss and loss of pool money fort a team (the Jays) that already didn't have a 2nd round pick. Why would they pick him?

No announcement yet, but looks like Landen Maroudis signed:

First Top 10 signing is Canadian HS Sam Shaw:

LOL Gurriel had 5 hits in this series and somehow managed 0 RBI's! No wonder they lost every game! I can't believe we fleeced the D-Backs and got a real winner (Varsho) for a stat-padding loser like Gurriel who can't even get timely hits like Varsho produced today to seal the win LOL!

LOL 2 for 1 trade and the D-Backs lost every game LOL! Man Gurriel really stinks! AZ got fleeced, how do you get two players for one and can't even win one game head to head LOL!

Arjun:

Mason McCrae (apparently he got hired by the Cubs) signaled out 13th rounder Brennan Orf as a model darling. Very similar profile to Alan Roden from last year:

Brandon Barriera made an appearance in the FCL this morning: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K

I don't think this is empirically true at all. It is very easy to see failure within your own team, but I think you would be shocked if you looked at the draft history of some of the teams around the league who are presented as "good" in the draft. The Jays by and large have been drafting at the back end of the order year over year, and they also generally don't receive extra picks; despite that they have found elite prospects (you need to appreciate how unlikely it is to find a Tiedemann level talent in the 3rd round) and have generally found guys that are still performing with later picks (eg: Connor Cooke was a 10th round selection and he has an absurd 55 K's in 29.1 IP this season). It's really easy to wash away Nick Frasso as a 4th round pick, but that is a major hit by actual empirical odds. Most picks by and large are going to fail, and this isn't something only reflective of the Jays. It's just easier to see when it's your own team. The Rays for example receive a million extra picks every year, and their flop rate is disgusting. And this is a "model team" that you would assume is just nailing it every year. For example, from 2018 to 2020 their top picks were Brendan McKay, Matthew Liberatore, Greg Jones, and Nick Bitsko. That is 3 complete busts (McKay, Jones, Bitsko were/are horrible) and Liberatore has made the MLB, but he's been utterly horrible. So that's 4 straight years of absolutely nothing, with McKay being a Top 5 pick. Nate Pearson is a success in comparison to those names. It's easy to see Austin Martin and say WTF were they thinking, but look around at the other top picks from 2020: Torkelson has been bad, Kjerstad looks good, Max Meyer bad, Asa Lacy atrocious, Emerson Hancock bad this season while repeating AA, Nick Gonzalez might be something, Robert Hassell is flopping, Zac Veen is horrible, and Detmers has been a success. The Jays record of top prospects flaming out at the MLB level is also not in any way unique to them. The final jump to the MLB is a massive one and this chews up elite prospects every year. I don't think it's indicative of anything to point out that that the prospects they've traded have largely failed for the teams that acquired them. Has CJ Abrams been a big success for the Nationals?

Signings are starting to flood in. Nothing for the Jays that I can see so far, but we have movement.

I never said it was new, but the whole point is that you would think they would catch on at some point. The fact that they need to "adjust based off their results" would seemingly indicate to you that maybe they should be more cautious about ranking prospects who don't even have a professional appearance yet? If you rank someone as the 50th best prospect in all of baseball without them even having played in a Pro game, and then 12 months later you need to drop them off your ranking entirely because they stunk up the joint in freaking A-ball, then that indicates that you should have never ranked them that high to begin with. It's one thing to tell me that yes Paul Skenes and Dylan Crews are already two of the best prospects in the minor leagues. It's something else entirely to suggest that Chase Davis, who had one good NCAA season and then went 21st overall, is all of a sudden a Top 50 prospect. The MLB scouting industry itself doesn't even believe that he is a Top 50 prospect, otherwise he would have been drafted much higher than 21st overall lol. The draft class isn't that strong to suggest that somehow half the players selected in the 1st round are already in the 99th percentile of all prospects (literally hundreds of them) already in the minors. That is an idiotic suggestion.

Lane Thomas.

Sure, college talent is up...but what's the objectivism here? They even accurately point out that Davis had major issues making contact prior to this season. So one season of hitting in the PAC12 and being drafted in the back end of the 1st round and you're a Top 50 prospect lol? These post-draft lists are always the same: massively overrate recently drafted players, and then the following year when half of them put up stinkers in the MiLB they drop out completely. Chase Davis is actually only a few months younger than Orelvis Martinez - a guy who mashes in AA. The PAC12 is miles below AA.

That list is using absurd recency bias. Chase Davis, drafted #21 overall, is the 50th best prospect in all of baseball?

Are they though? I think this is one of those things where it's easy to see failure within yourself but fail to take light of what the actual difficulty/failure rate is universally. The Blue Jays are likely no worse than average here. For fun, I took a look at the Tampa Bay Rays' success with pitchers drafted within the first 3 rounds from 2017-2020, and the results are shockingly bad - and this is with 2-3x the sample size of Toronto's pitchers drafted within the first 3 rounds over the same timeframe (because Tampa Bay is awarded so many freaking compensatory picks). Out of something like 11 players drafted that high (nearly 3 per draft), they've produced Shane McClanahan - that's it. The rest is pretty much all slop, to the degree that Nate Pearson actually looks like a budding success story. And this is a team that is renowned for their drafting/development system. There may be a few outlier teams league-wide in terms of being categorically superior in terms of pitcher development, but Toronto is not as bad as you probably perceive.

The Jays draft as per Prospects Live rankings: #12 SS Arjun Nimmala #51 RHP Juaron Watts-Brown #72 OF Jace Bohrofen #76 RHP Landen Maroudis #107 Nick Goodwin #200 LHP Connor O'Halloran #211 OF Sam Shaw

That Bo Bichette guy is pretty trash.

Kiley McDaniel's new mock has the Jays taking Stanford 3B Tommy Troy. https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/37969209/2023-mlb-mock-draft-31-kiley-mcdaniel-predicted-final-updated-picks

@Spanky99 Please post the final BA Mock Draft!

Fangraphs (Eric Longenhagen) Mock Draft from today: Keith Law Mock #3 (June 29th) had the Jays taking HS C Blake Mitchell. He stated then that the Jays might be the floor for Mitchell and Vanderbilt OF Enrique Bradfield, and that they're on HS 3B Aidan Miller as well.

Frasso in AA (including last season): 51 IP, 50 H, 19 BB, 62 K 4.41 ERA 10.94 K/9 3.35 BB/9 3 IP per outing That's not even "lock to be a high leverage reliever" performance. No one even knows how his stuff carries as the lineup turns over because his outings are so short. He has made zero progress in terms of building stamina since being drafted. I'm intrigued to see if he's actually hurt again given his recent crap outings and loss of command/control.

You are embellishing. They traded an extremely volatile prospect who had thrown barely any innings (and this has persisted) for a flawed albeit somewhat intriguing MLB pitcher with control and a lower-leveled intriguing prospect. Nick Frasso turns 25 in a few months and has only gone over 3 IP once over his past 7 starts. I knew right when they traded him that they didn't like something about him - this FO has been extremely careful about the prospects they give up. There's no way they were going to expose a potential star pitcher for Mitch White lol. BA jumped the gun, period. I'd wager a lot of money that he never shoots up that high if he had been traded to a non-darling organization. It's actually comical how few innings he has thrown going all the way back to college. At the pace he's on, he'll be ready to be a "mid rotation starter" when he hits 32 years of age.

Sounds like some Commie gobbledygook.

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