metafour

Right, but there's always going to be "something" potentially wrong with almost any free agent you approach. Ryu was old and injury prone, but he did still give two years of performance on a 4 year deal. This seemed like a very realistic outcome for him. Sure, you would have hoped to get that ~5 WAR season out of him. Springer really wasn't that "injury prone". He played in 51 out of 60 games in 2020 (85%), 122 out of 162 games in 2019 (75%), 140 out of 162 games in 2018 (86%), 140 out of 162 games in 2017 (86%), and 162 out of 162 games in 2016 (100%). The risk there came from his age + defensive position. Of course, his very first year here he plays the least amount of games he's ever played. Year #2 has now also featured a lingering injury. That outcome was always there as a real possibility, but that's the reality with most free agents. It's been pretty bad luck with that signing so far. I don't understand the Berrios one. He's "bland", but his AAV on his extension is only $18.7 million. He's a guy who had 3+ WAR in 3 of the 4 seasons prior to him signing that extension (the one outlier season was the shortened 2020 year). 2 of those seasons were 4+ WAR seasons. At ~$18.7 million, anything close to or over 3 WAR is surplus value on his contract. I don't think that anyone expected 28 year old Berrios to pitch at a 0.3 WAR season. It was still a good signing regardless of how bland he was because the guy is rarely if ever injured. He's just been terrible this season. Age is an obvious risk-factor, but even that one isn't dependable. Look at Carlos Correa - 1.6 WAR season for the Twins and he's only 27. He has a $35 million AAV on his contract.

Exactly, a lot of this is pure revisionist history. Berrios was a 27 year old with great health. Panned as a "great extension" at the time it was made. Now it's seen as some "huge gamble" they took LOL. No offense to anyone, but it's typical fan-BS. "Wooohooo! We signed Springer! f*** yeahhh!". Then it's "what a bunch of idiots, why did they take this huge risk and sign Springer?" Kikuchi is the only real head-scratcher where it seemed like they were throwing big money in the hopes of performing magic.

That's what teams are always hoping for, but if you look back at "top free agent signings", it's very hit or miss to even get one or two of those "elite years". Last year's mega-class seems to be like a ~50% rate at this point. A lot of it is just down to luck IMO. The Braves gave Marcell Ozuna $64 mill in 2020 and he's been a negative player over the first two years of his deal. That's a considerably worse signing/outcome than Ryu who got $80 mill. And that's from a "smart team".

Also, newly acquired Alex De Jesus was promoted to Vancouver after his couple appearances made in the FCL.

Tucker Toman 2 for 2 with a BB so far today. Early returns so far have been promising.

$350K was the slot value of the 152nd pick (Mid 5th Round) in 2019. He wasn't a ranked HS kid, but he had video on MLB.com. He was basically one of those shot-in-the-dark HS picks that ends up hitting.

Tucker Toman with a double to CF in his first at-bat today in the FCL

I think the one big thing with Frasso: The guy has literally never pitched more than 60 innings in a single season in his life, and that includes College. 2018: 60 IP 2019: 56.2 IP 2020: 8.2 IP 2021: 5 IP 2022: 36.2 IP At no point in time has he ever approached anything even remotely close to a starter's workload. And he's almost 24. Obviously the arm talent and athleticism are great, as are the results in High A. But I'm sure the Jays saw a pretty significant risk profile with him.

Here is what Ben Badler wrote. Sounds better than Groshans lol:

Nobody said that they were "down" on Frasso, but the truth likely lies in the middle: they had to give up something to get something, but if they thought that Frasso was a star that they would regret trading then this move isn't one that they would make given everything they've shown. You can also discern a lot by how they treat prospects. Tiedemann isn't even 20 yet and they've moved him up 3-levels this season to AA. Frasso is almost 24 and they still have him in High A. But yet there are people on here who think he'd be dominating AAA right now or making his MLB debut next season. If the Jays had that impression of him, he would have been pushed. They push their "top prospects" really aggressively, and in the case of Frasso, the guy is actually old for the level he is currently at.

Do you believe that the Jays haven't seen Frasso? They don't know his FG stats lol? For a team that has been extremely selective with which prospects they move out, you think they saw Frasso as a guy who could be dominating AAA today?

That's fine, I like Frasso too. But this front office sees these guys day-in and day-out. Frasso is old, has been injured, and hasn't pitched above A-ball. Perhaps they see something underlying and see this as a sell-high situation? The thing that should give you confidence is that they have been absurdly reluctant to trade away their "high impact" prospects. I don't think they're trading this kid away for Mich White if they thought he was that type of prospect.

Name me the last prospect that this front office has regretted trading. If you haven't figured out by now, they are dead-set against trading the guys they think are irreplaceable. They have been extremely good at evaluating the guys they have sent out. I'm not saying that Frasso is nothing, but if they thought he was some elite MLB pitcher next year he doesn't get moved. The reality is that he's almost 24 and he's still in High A. They aren't trading Noah Syndergaard the prospect here. It's literally the same story as last year: "oh noes, we traded Martin and SWR!!" Kendall Williams was a high-bonus ~6'5 HS pitcher that people were fretting would become a top-end starter for the Dodgers. He looks like forgettable crap. The Jays knew what he was and had no problem moving him.

Frasso turns 24 in less than 3 months and he's in High A. He's pitched a grand total of 41.2 innings in his career. His stuff is very promising, but he's not an MLB starter next year lol. Mitch White is a solid MLB pitcher with ~4 years of control left. The prospect they got back with him is also a real prospect. Again, the Jays are very good at evaluating their own prospects. They definitely traded something to get something in this case, but this isn't a pull-your-hair out type deal like you're making it out to be. This actually kind of looks like a scaled-up version of the Stripling trade where everyone panicked and thought we got fleeced because we sent Kendall Williams to the Dodgers.

Espinal was only with the Red Sox up until A+, and he was 23 at the time. He was hitting well, but he wasn't seen as much more than an old over-achiever with average tools at the time. He spent considerably more developmental time with the Jays. Teoscar definitely made it up to the MLB under the Astros, but he was seen as a highly flawed prospect with unreached tools that they didn't have any more room for. The Jays did a lot of work to alleviate or fix some of the fatal flaws he had, which is what has made him an above-average MLB regular.

Even as part of a trade for a "star player", Groshans would be like a #4 or #5 piece. He's not heavily contributing to any trade for a star player.

Without improvements? Garrett Cooper has much better ISO's as a full-time MLB player than Groshans is sporting in the minors. The Jays have been very good at evaluating their own prospects and dumping guys that they perceive to be non-losses. They are also universally seen as being one of the best teams at developing hitters, thus the fact that they are giving up on Groshans should tell you something. I'm sure the Marlins hope to squeeze something out of him, but Groshans really looks pretty poop right now...and he's not young either.

Are you guys serious? Groshans is almost 23 has hit for zero power the past two years. It's not like he sports a .300+ BA either. If it's Bass and Pop for him, that's a great trade. Pop has lots of control.

Right, but the point is that when a player of this caliber is traded (Soto), the other team isn't going to compare these arbitrary numbers and perceive the returns as equal. They're going to look for certain traits/upsides/etc. in the players going back.. The reality is this: Abrams and Hassell are highly drafted ~Top 25 prospects with pretty safe floors because they have few flaws (Hassell is supposedly looking even better in CF than expected) . James Woods looks like he has MVP type potential and may be a Top 5 prospect in a year. Mackenzie Gore is a former uber-prospect who is at least already in the MLB (albeit hurt). The other pitcher they got is hitting triple digits and is one of the biggest breakouts in the lower minors this season. That package is considerably more enticing to most teams than Moreno + Tiedemann, reclamation project Nate Pearson, and Orelvis Martinez who's floor is basically non-existent because he's running a ~.200 BA with few walks, lots of strikeouts, and a swing that may not work at all in the MLB.

Stuff like this doesn't work in trades of this magnitude, regardless of what the "calculator" suggests. Pearson is basically a nothingburger right now and Martinez, while he has "value", is going to be perceived all over the place because his underlying metrics are pretty horrific. So now you're essentially talking about Moreno and Tiedemann? A guy like James Wood makes this deal, because he has legitimate freakshow type upside. I don't perceive those packages to be equal at all.

James Wood is an absolute monster. He looks like Aaron Judge so far. He was a ~Top 10 talent in his draft class before having an ugly senior season. The Padres still paid him $2.6 mill to sign. His tools are through the roof, and so far he's absolutely mashing.

I mean, it should have been pretty obvious that Pace was just a "lets draft this kid with our last pick so the kid can be happy he got drafted" pick when he stated that he didn't even know that he was drafted because he turned the draft off. Had it been a real pick/signing they would have called him beforehand to iron out the bonus and confirm with him that they had enough to get the deal done. And yes, Nolan Perry likely got the remainder of everything we had left - which would put his bonus around ~$200K (this makes sense for a 12th round HS pitcher). $200K obviously wasn't anywhere near enough to get Pace done. If it was, he wouldn't have lasted till the 20th round.

Brandon Barriera signed for $3,597,500.

Gunnar Hoglund made his Pro debut on rehab assignment in the ACL for the A's: 2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K I'm interested to see what his stuff is looking like this year.